Showing posts with label Big East tournament. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Big East tournament. Show all posts

Saturday, March 16, 2013

Game stats: Syracuse 58, Georgetown 55 [OT]

TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Home                            Visitor   
.            GEORGETOWN                      Syracuse         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            28        28        55
 
Points          20        35        55          29        29        58   

Effic.         72.3     100.7      88.2       104.8      83.4      93.0  
 
eFG%           32.7      50.0      41.5        47.8      39.7      43.3  
TO%            14.5      20.1      17.6        18.1      25.9      22.5  
OR%            30.0      36.8      33.3        26.7      39.1      34.2  
FTA/FGA        26.9      48.1      37.7        34.8      37.9      36.5  

Assist Rate    75.0      75.0      75.0        88.9      30.0      57.9  
Block Rate      0.0       9.1       5.9         5.3      18.8      11.4  
Steal Rate     14.5       8.6      11.2         3.6      14.4       9.6  
 
2FG%           36.8      56.2      45.7        41.7      31.8      35.3  
3FG%           14.3      27.3      22.2        36.4      42.9      38.9  
FT%            42.9      61.5      55.0        87.5      54.5      68.4

And so it goes for the Hoyas in the last year of the "original" Big East tournament.

What I hope doesn't get lost in this is that Mikael Hopkins grades out as clearly the best player on the court for either team tonight (see below). After a mostly difficult season for Hopkins, I was glad to see him have a performance that he can build upon during the NCAA tournament.

more stats after the jump

Thursday, March 14, 2013

Game stats: Georgetown 62, Cincinnati 43

TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Home                            Visitor   
.            GEORGETOWN                      Cincinnati         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            27        26        53
 
Points          29        33        62          24        19        43   

Effic.        107.0     125.4     116.0        88.5      72.2      80.4  
 
eFG%           52.1      50.0      51.0        55.9      35.7      44.7  
TO%            25.8       7.6      16.8        33.2      22.8      28.1  
OR%            37.5      35.7      36.7        40.0      20.0      28.0  
FTA/FGA        29.2      45.8      37.5        47.1      23.8      34.2  

Assist Rate    60.0      54.5      57.1        57.1      57.1      57.1  
Block Rate      0.0       7.1       4.8         0.0      25.0      16.1  
Steal Rate     14.8      11.4      13.1        14.8       7.6      11.2  
 
2FG%           45.5      45.0      45.2        28.6      42.9      38.1  
3FG%           38.5      50.0      41.2        50.0      14.3      35.3  
FT%            57.1      81.8      72.2        62.5      80.0      69.2

more stats after the jump

Thursday, March 8, 2012

Recap: Cincinnati 72, Georgetown 70 [2OT]

Image from here
The Georgetown Hoyas saw their stay at the Big East tournament come to a premature end courtesy of a gutty come-from-behind win by the Cincinnati Bearcats, 72-70.

The game went two overtimes today, thanks to last second heroics in regulation by Otto Porter and in the first overtime by Henry Sims, but the worm tuned in the second extra session when Cashmere Wright made a tough layup that proved to be the difference.

Some quick thoughts as I watch a replay of the game:

The Hoyas drew 23 fouls on 57 possessions yesterday against Pittsburgh, but only 14 on 72 possessions today (and of those 14 total fouls by the Bearcats, four came in a single possession). Now this isn't a criticism of the refs for today's game, but rather an observation about how the two games were called. Yesterday was called tight, which we generally think benefits Georgetown's motion offense. Tonight was called loose, especially with respect to the more aggressive Cincinnati defense. The Hoyas couldn't adjust - and missed half their FTs after intermission when they did get to the line. [N.B. - Cinci was 2nd lowest in FT/FG allowed in conference, while Pitt was 11th].

Did Nate Lubick not get a fair shake today? The argument goes that he had one of his best games of the year in the first meeting with the Bearcats, but Nate never got on the floor in the Vespers' half. It's hard to say, but I didn't see anything in his 7 possessions played to indicate he was over-matched today.

Still watching the replay: with less than nine minutes left in regulation, an eleven-point lead and the ball, the game very much feels to be the Hoyas to win. I think I felt the same way the last time the teams played.

Jason Clark was rated as an overall positive today, rating +1.5 net points by the compiler, while Hollis Thompson was nearly -3. Thompson and Starks are capable of much better things, and as I noted yesterday, the Hoyas aren't going to win many games when those two aren't winning their matchups.

Does Mick Cronin have John Thompson III's number? Cronin has been coaching the Bearcats since 2008:
Season  GU-UC  Favored?
2008     1-0   GU favored
2009     0-2   GU favored in both
2010     1-0   GU favored
2011     0-2   each favored in one
2012     0-2   GU favored in both
Total    2-6
Yikes! The Hoyas were favored (per KenPom) in seven of their last eight games against Cincinnati, but have only come away with two wins (that's five upsets for the Bearcats, for you SFS'ers).


Let's run the numbers:

TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Visitor                         Home      
.            Georgetown                      Cincinnati         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            25        32        59

Points          30        40        70          24        48        72   

Effic.        118.3      83.0      94.8        94.6      99.6      97.5  
 
eFG%           48.2      51.5      50.0        40.4      40.2      40.3  
TO%             7.9      24.9      19.0        19.7      10.4      13.5  
OR%            46.7      23.8      33.3        41.2      30.3      34.0  
FTA/FGA        17.9      29.4      24.2        15.4      37.0      29.2  
 
Assist Rate    38.5      47.1      43.3        40.0      44.4      42.9  
Block Rate     12.5      17.1      15.7         9.1       0.0       3.8  
Steal Rate     11.8       2.1       5.4         7.9      20.7      16.3  
 
2FG%           54.5      53.3      53.8        56.2      48.6      51.0  
3FG%           16.7      25.0      20.0        10.0       9.1       9.5  
FT%            60.0      50.0      53.3        75.0      64.7      66.7

more stats after the jump

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Recap: Georgetown 64, Pittsburgh 52

Image from here
Just getting a chance to watch the rebroadcast of the game right now, so I don't know if you'll be getting much of a recap. Depends on how fired up / sleepy I am when it's over.

Annndddd . . . tiredness is going to win.  Quick thoughts before I call it a night:
  • As Tom points out in comments, the Hoyas didn't settle for many 2FG jumpers, or 3FGs for that matter. Versus 20 total jumpshots [7 2FG, 13 3FG], Georgetown attempted 19 layups in the game and made 13 of those. Pitt has been having a tough defensive year, giving up 51% on 2FGs in conference games. Smart offense by the Hoyas.
  • The best thing Pitt has done in conference this year is crash the offensive glass - grabbing 40% of their own missed shots. Not today, as Sims [10 def. reb.] and friends limited the Panthers to only 22%  off. rebounding tonight. 
  • Was that Henry Sims' career game? Stats say no, he actually had one better game, against Savannah St. to open the season. Although I suppose the level of competition was a bit higher tonight.
  • And since I can't end a recap without at least one negative comment: only three Hoyas were positives on the court today (Sims, Porter, Whittington). Without Jason Clark and Hollis Thompson leading the team, a win against Cincinnati will be a much harder proposition.


Let's run the numbers:


TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Home                            Visitor   
.            Georgetown                      PITT         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            30        30        60
 
Points          31        33        64          23        29        52   

Effic.        102.8     111.0     106.8        76.3      97.5      86.8  
 
eFG%           52.4      55.6      53.8        32.8      55.0      41.8  
TO%            23.2      16.8      20.0        10.0      23.5      16.7  
OR%            30.8      27.3      29.2        22.7      20.0      21.6  
FTA/FGA        66.7      94.4      79.5        17.2      65.0      36.7  

Assist Rate    40.0      66.7      52.6        75.0      50.0      61.1  
Block Rate     23.5       0.0      14.3         0.0       0.0       0.0  
Steal Rate      3.3      13.4       8.3        10.0       6.7       8.3  
 
2FG%           61.5      53.8      57.7        29.4      72.7      46.4  
3FG%           25.0      40.0      30.8        25.0      22.2      23.8  
FT%            64.3      76.5      71.0        80.0      53.8      61.1

more stats after the jump

Friday, March 11, 2011

BET log5 predictions, after quarterfinals

Here's the updated log5 analysis of the BET tourney, after the quarterfinal round is in the books.

We finally see our first major movement in the odds, as UConn knocked out clear favorite Pitt. The Huskies are unsurprisingly the biggest beneficiaries of their own good play, as their chances of winning the Big East Tournament are now roughly 7.5 times what they were as of Tuesday morning. Note, though, that the log5 calculations don't take into account the fatigue factor of playing four games in as many days, so Syracuse is probably even more of a favorite than the current odds show them to be.

The second semifinal should be a very competitive game between two double-bye teams that cruised by large margins in their opening game. The only regular season meeting between the Cardinals and Irish went to overtime, and I (and ESPN) am hoping for another good game in the rematch.

Seed  Team     2nd Rnd   Quarters   Semis   Finals    Champ      Orig
9     UConn      100       100       100     39.2     15.5        2.1
16    DePaul     out       out       out      out      out        0.00002
8     G'town      -        out       out      out      out        2.4
1     Pitt        -         -        out      out      out       31.7

12    SHU        out       out       out      out      out        0.3
13    Rutgers    100       out       out      out      out       0.03
5     St.J's      -        100       out      out      out        2.7
4     Cuse        -         -        100     60.8     30.7       19.8

10    Nova       out       out       out      out      out        2.3
15    USF        100       out       out      out      out        0.001
7     Cinci       -        100       out      out      out        6.0
2     N.Dame      -         -        100     53.3     29.5       12.6

11    Marq       100       100       out      out      out        1.4
14    Provy      out       out       out      out      out        0.01
6     WVU         -        out       out      out      out        5.2
3     L'ville     -         -        100     46.7     24.4       13.5
Editor's note: These are the percentage probabilities a team will make it to that round, based on KenPom ratings.
"100" means that team did advance to the round, a "-" means the team had a bye to that round.

Thursday, March 10, 2011

BET log5 predictions, after Round 2

Here's the updated log5 analysis of the BET tourney, after the 2nd round is in the books.

Cincinnati is the biggest beneficiary of the action thus far, with their odds up 4.1%. Still, the top four seeds are the four likeliest to win, and their odds are mostly unchanged. Note that this calculation, unlike the one done by Basketball Prospectus does not give St. John's any home court advantage; perhaps it should.

Seed  Team     2nd Rnd   Quarters   Semis   Finals    Champ      Orig
9     UConn      100       100      26.5     10.6      4.5        2.1
16    DePaul     out       out       out      out      out        0.00002
8     G'town      -        out       out      out      out        2.4
1     Pitt        -         -       73.5     47.3     31.7       31.7

12    SHU        out       out       out      out      out        0.3
13    Rutgers    100       out       out      out      out       0.03
5     St.J's      -        100      32.4     10.0      4.1        2.7
4     Cuse        -         -       67.6     32.1     18.9       19.8

10    Nova       out       out       out      out      out        2.3
15    USF        100       out       out      out      out        0.001
7     Cinci       -        100      47.6     24.8     10.1        6.0
2     N.Dame      -         -       52.4     28.6     12.3       12.6

11    Marq       100       100      36.4     13.8      4.3        1.4
14    Provy      out       out       out      out      out        0.01
6     WVU         -        out       out      out      out        5.2
3     L'ville     -         -       63.6     32.8     14.3       13.5
Editor's note: These are the percentage probabilities a team will make it to that round, based on KenPom ratings through Tuesday's games (ratings through Wednesday were unavailable at of 9:30 AM CT).
"100" means that team did advance to the round, a "-" means the team had a bye to that round.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Turnovers, and their importance

Georgetown went into this year's Big East tournament as the 8th seed and an enigma, and came up one possession short of winning the whole thing.

There's one very good reason that the Hoyas played so well last week - they stopped committing turnovers. While Georgetown has averaged turning the ball over about 21% of the time, they only gave it up 15% of the time in the BET.

Here's the game log from the tournament:
.                             TO Rate
Opponent           Result    Game  Opp Avg
South Florida        W       16.2    18.1
Syracuse             W       17.6    22.7
Marquette            W       14.1    22.2
West Virginia        L       11.3    19.8
The first two columns should be self-explanatory; the third column is G'town's TO rate in the game, the final column is their opponent's average TO rate forced on the season.
Not only did the Hoyas reduce their turnovers by ~30% during the BET, they gave up the ball progressively less, relative to the competition, in each game.



The correlation between TO rate and post-season success is nothing new. Let's take a look at the past three post-seasons (2009 never happened, got it?).
2006 Post-Season
(season avg = 18.8)
.                             TO Rate
Opponent           Result   Game   Opp Avg
Notre Dame           W      14.2    15.5
Marquette            W      14.2    20.1
Syracuse             L      29.1    22.1
Northern Iowa        W      17.0    19.0
Ohio St.             W      13.4    20.2
Florida              L      21.4    22.4
The 2005-6 team was JTIII's first true success story at Georgetown, beating two very good Big East opponents before the debacle against the Orange in the BET. Since Notre Dame never forces many turnovers, the first game was not a surprise, but the Hoyas held onto the ball against Marquette and won, and were a turnover disaster against Syracuse and lost.

The results were similar in the NCAA's: faced with a purported superior foe (tOSU), Georgetown simply refused to waste possessions and this led to the upset.  In the next round, Georgetown gave the ball up more than 20% of the time and lost.

2007 Post-Season
(season avg = 22.0)
.                             TO Rate
Opponent           Result   Game   Opp Avg
Villanova            W      15.2    23.1
Notre Dame           W      15.7    20.9
Pittsburgh           W      15.9    18.5
Belmont              W      19.4    19.4
Boston College       W      18.2    18.1
Vanderbilt           W      19.5    21.8
North Carolina       W      13.4    21.4
Ohio St.             L      24.0    20.2
The story is even simpler in 2007 - during the run to the Big East title, the Hoyas never gave up turnovers even 16% of the time after averaging 22% throughout the year.  And in the NCAA, facing a superior opponent in North Carolina, Georgetown managed one of their lowest turnover rates all season to pull the convincing upset.  But the party came to an end with a sloppy performance in the re-match against the Buckeyes.

2008 Post-Season
(season avg = 21.2)
.                             TO Rate
Opponent           Result   Game   Opp Avg
Villanova            W      23.9    23.4
West Virginia        W      17.5    22.6
Pittsburgh           L      20.1    20.5
MD Baltimore Count   W      25.1    19.0
Davidson             L      32.3    24.0
In 2008, the Hoyas just didn't have the magic touch. They overcame a generous game against Nova by shooting out of their minds from behind the arc [17/28 3FG], and overcame a sloppy game against UMBC by out-athleting them. Otherwise, turnovers meant losses.


Is this year's BET a harbinger of an NCAA tourney run?  The Hoyas certainly showed that they are capable of hanging on to the ball for a multiple game stretch, but looking at 2006 and 2007, it only takes one careless game to end the season.

So, if there's nary a mention of turnovers is the game, things are looking up.  But if you hear Bill Raftery dwell on the high number of turnovers Georgetown is committing, be nervous, very nervous.



Bonus summary table!!
.                          Post
Year    Result    Season  Season   Net   Opp Avg
2006     4-2       18.8    18.2   -0.6    19.9
2007     7-1       22.0    17.7   -4.3    20.4
2008     4-2       21.2    23.8    2.6    21.9
2010     3-1       20.9    14.8   -6.1    20.7

Sunday, March 14, 2010

Recap: West Virginia 60, Georgetown 58

Should I be more upset that Georgetown lost? I never thought they deserved to be in the game, but there they were, tied with 9 seconds left when Da'Sean Butler hits a tough, tough shot.

I think the bourbon is helping.

In a game where Georgetown was obliterated on the defensive boards, struggling to hit outside shots and saw Greg Monroe shut down as well as any time all season, the opportunity to steal a win and the Big East title was still within reach.

After trailing by nine points (50-41) at the under-8 minute media timeout, the Hoyas played stifling defense to twice tie the game, but couldn't get the stops at the end for the win.  West Virginia scored 20 points on their first 21 possessions of the second half, then 8 points in their last four possessions to hang on to the win.

A few pithy comments below before I go to bed.

Let's run the numbers:

TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Visitor                         Home      
.            Georgetown                      West Virginia         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            28        25        53

Effic.        101.8     120.0     110.5       116.4     112.0     114.3  
 
eFG%           44.2      50.0      46.8        46.7      36.0      41.8  
TO%            10.9      12.0      11.4        14.5      28.0      21.0  
OR%            31.2      41.7      35.7        52.9      64.7      58.8  
FTA/FGA        23.1      47.6      34.0        16.7      40.0      27.3  
 
Assist Rate    45.5      66.7      55.0        53.8      75.0      61.9  
Block Rate      0.0      11.8       5.1        15.8       8.3      12.9  
Steal Rate      3.6      16.0       9.5         0.0       4.0       1.9  
 
2FG%           52.6      50.0      51.6        50.0      35.3      43.6  
3FG%           14.3      33.3      25.0        25.0      25.0      25.0  
FT%            83.3      90.0      87.5        80.0     100.0      93.3

This will likely come as a complete shock to those not savvy to tempo-free stats, but tonight's game was not a defensive battle. Rather, that was two teams putting up quite respectable offensive games at an absolutely glacial pace.

In fact, from a cursory scan this was the slowest-paced game Georgetown has played since . . . a 1-point win at West Virginia in 2008 (the Pat Ewing game-saving block game). The Mountaineers are a slow-paced team this year [63 poss/game, 312th nationally], but 53 possessions is positively Big-Ten-like (perhaps WVU is auditioning?).

Offensively, Georgetown didn't do too much wrong other than struggle from behind the arc in the 1st half.

Defensively, the Hoyas didn't force enough turnovers in the Lift-off half, but made up for that with a nice turnovers-forced rate in the Vesper half.  Oh yeah, and they were completely obliterated on the defensive glass.  That was actually worse than the beat-down Pitt put on Georgetown last season.  In fact, as far as I can tell that was the worse defensive rebounding by a Georgetown team since the regular-season-ending loss to Providence way back in 2005.

And that was the single biggest reason Georgetown lost tonight.  Now to be clear, offensive rebounding is the primary offensive weapon for West Virginia (2nd nationally at 42%), but tonight happened to be their high-water mark for the season.  Great.


INDIVIDUAL NET POINTS STATS

Georgetown            Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
Wright, Chris          52   34.5  123.5   22.2      53   112.6   11.9      +6.1  
Monroe, Greg           50   19.1  108.8   10.4      51    92.2    9.4      +1.3  
Freeman, Austin        51   17.5  127.0   11.3      53   107.4   11.4      +0.9  
Clark, Jason           37   15.8   28.6    1.7      38   104.7    8.0      -5.4  
Vaughn, Julian         27   16.7  115.2    5.2      30   103.9    6.2      -0.3  
Thompson, Hollis       24    6.0   92.9    1.3      19   111.2    4.2      -1.6  
Benimon, Jerrelle      19    7.4  135.8    1.9      21   144.4    6.1      -2.1  
TOTALS                 52         108.9   54.0      53   107.9   57.2      -1.3  

West Virginia         Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
BUTLER, Da'Sean        53   28.1  117.0   17.4      52   116.0   12.1      +2.7  
EBANKS, Devin          45    9.6  112.1    4.8      43    99.6    8.6      -1.6  
JONES, Kevin           40   21.2  104.2    8.8      41   119.0    9.8      -1.1  
BRYANT, Darryl         14   16.4   26.1    0.6      12   106.9    2.6      -1.9  
SMITH, Wellington      38   22.8  144.0   12.5      35    95.0    6.7      +5.0  
THOROUGHMAN, Cam        9   28.7  129.1    3.3      12   164.8    4.0      -0.8  
MAZZULLA, Joe          37   16.7  107.2    6.6      37   105.7    7.8      -0.6  
MITCHELL, Casey         7   28.9  122.8    2.5       6    68.7    0.8      +1.4  
FLOWERS, John          13   15.0   97.3    1.9      13   144.5    3.8      -1.4  
KILICLI, Deniz          9    0.0    -      0.0       9    76.2    1.4      -1.4  
TOTALS                 53         113.9   58.5      52   110.3   57.3      +1.5

In a game where Greg Monroe was pushed out of his spots all night and Austin Freeman struggled to score until the most desperate of times (how clutch is Austin Freeman?), Chris Wright simply willed the Hoyas back into the game over and over again.  I may question his outside shooting touch, but I'll never question his heart. And his last-second layup attempt to tie the game was the correct play.

You hate to point a finger at a single player in a game like this, but Jason Clark just couldn't bring anything offensively tonight, after playing very well in the first three games of the tournament.



HD BOX SCORE

Georgetown vs West Virginia
3/13/10 9:00 pm at New York, NY/MSG
Final score: West Virginia 60, Georgetown 58

Georgetown              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
Wright, Chris          40:00  - 2  20/58  6-12  0- 5  8- 8 17/46  7/14  1/53  2/52  0/41  2/27  1/35   2
Monroe, Greg           38:14  + 0  11/58  3- 6  0- 1  5- 6  7/44  3/17  2/51  1/50  0/39  0/25  6/33   2
Freeman, Austin        39:10  - 2  14/58  4- 7  2- 5  0- 0 12/45  1/14  3/53  0/51  0/41  1/26  0/35   1
Clark, Jason           29:11  - 2   2/38  1- 2  0- 3  0- 0  5/35  0/12  0/38  1/37  0/24  0/23  3/25   2
Vaughn, Julian         23:44  - 2   4/29  2- 3  0- 0  0- 0  3/27  0/10  0/30  1/27  1/23  2/15  2/22   5
Thompson, Hollis       16:26  + 4   6/26  0- 0  2- 2  0- 0  2/19  0/ 7  0/19  1/24  0/20  0/10  1/14   2
Benimon, Jerrelle      13:15  - 6   1/23  0- 0  0- 0  1- 2  0/14  0/ 6  0/21  0/19  0/17  1/ 9  0/11   2
TOTALS                 40:00       58    16-30  4-16 14-16    46 11/20  6/53  6/52  1/41  8/27 14/35  16
.                                        0.533 0.250 0.875       0.550 0.113 0.115 0.024 0.296 0.400    

West Virginia           Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
BUTLER, Da'Sean        40:00  + 2  20/60  6-15  1- 5  5- 5 20/56  2/14  0/52  3/53  1/30  4/35  3/27   2
EBANKS, Devin          33:22  + 9   2/53  1- 3  0- 1  0- 0  4/48  1/17  0/43  2/45  1/25  4/30  5/25   1
JONES, Kevin           30:16  - 8  12/41  4- 6  1- 3  1- 2  9/43  0/ 9  0/41  2/40  0/25  3/29  1/22   3
BRYANT, Darryl         09:55  - 3   0/10  0- 0  0- 1  0- 0  1/14  0/ 4  0/12  1/14  0/ 9  1/10  1/ 8   0
SMITH, Wellington      29:49  +12  11/44  4- 6  1- 3  0- 0  9/41  1/11  0/35  1/38  2/21  6/25  4/20   4
THOROUGHMAN, Cam       06:06  - 9   2/11  1- 1  0- 0  0- 0  1/ 9  2/ 4  0/12  1/ 9  0/ 6  1/ 4  0/ 4   3
MAZZULLA, Joe          29:11  + 6   6/46  0- 6  0- 0  6- 6  6/41  6/16  0/37  0/37  0/20  0/25  2/18   1
MITCHELL, Casey        04:34  + 2   5/ 9  0- 1  1- 2  2- 2  3/ 8  0/ 1  1/ 6  0/ 7  0/ 5  0/ 6  1/ 3   0
FLOWERS, John          09:58  - 8   2/12  1- 2  0- 0  0- 0  2/10  0/ 3  0/13  0/13  0/ 3  1/ 6  0/ 4   2
KILICLI, Deniz         06:49  + 7   0/14  0- 1  0- 0  0- 0  1/10  0/ 5  0/ 9  0/ 9  0/ 6  0/ 5  1/ 4   0
TOTALS                 40:00       60    17-41  4-15 14-15    56 12/21  1/52 11/53  4/30 21/35 19/27  16
.                                        0.415 0.267 0.933       0.571 0.019 0.208 0.133 0.600 0.704    

Efficiency: West Virginia 1.132, Georgetown 1.115
eFG%: West Virginia 0.411, Georgetown 0.478
Substitutions: West Virginia 32, Georgetown 20

2-pt Shot Selection:
Dunks: West Virginia 1-1, Georgetown 2-2
Layups/Tips: West Virginia 11-21, Georgetown 13-23
Jumpers: West Virginia 5-19, Georgetown 1-5

Fast break pts (% FG pts): West Virginia 5 (10.9), Georgetown 8 (18.2)
Pts (eff.) after steal: West Virginia 3 (300.0), Georgetown 9 (150.0)
Seconds per poss: West Virginia 26.5, Georgetown 19.1


Friday, March 12, 2010

Recap: Georgetown 80, Marquette 57

Defensive rebounding. Greg Monroe is good. There's your recap.


Oh, you want to hear some more?  In that case, let's run the numbers:

TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Visitor                         Home      
.            Georgetown                      Marquette         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            32        32        64

Effic.        116.7     132.7     124.5       107.3      71.0      88.7  
 
eFG%           53.2      66.0      58.9        50.0      34.6      42.6  
TO%            15.8      12.3      14.0         9.5       9.3       9.3  
OR%            41.2      30.8      36.7        18.8       9.1      13.2  
FTA/FGA        22.6      56.0      37.5        25.0      42.3      33.3  
 
Assist Rate    60.0      40.0      50.0        58.3      25.0      45.0  
Block Rate      6.2      16.7      11.8         4.2       0.0       2.3  
Steal Rate      9.5       0.0       4.7         3.2      12.3       7.8  
 
2FG%           50.0      60.0      54.5        50.0      33.3      41.2  
3FG%           42.9      60.0      50.0        33.3      25.0      30.0  
FT%            57.1      71.4      66.7        85.7      45.5      61.1


The prevailing expectation coming into the game was that the Golden Eagles could win the game by shooting the Hoyas out of the gym from behind the arc, just like they did up in Milwaukee.  But that's not what happened then, and it's not what happened last night.

As Alan pointed out in January, Marquette pulled out the first match-up by controlling two aspects of the game:  turnovers and rebounding.  They were +3 in first-half turnover margin, and then gathered 8 of 18 own missed shots in the second half to hang on a small lead throughout.  So what happened last night?

The Lift-off half indicated that Georgetown was going to correct one of the deficiencies:  rebounding.  Marquette did an excellent job taking care of the ball once again (+2 in turnover margin) but the Hoyas controlled their defensive glass, allowing only 3 offensive rebounds (of 16 available Marquette misses) and two second-chance points.

The Hoyas offense was fairly simply: pound it inside. Georgetown made 11/19 dunks, layups and tip-ins (and only 1/6 2FG jumpers) as Monroe and Vaughn combined to shoot 8/11 on 2FG. This gave some open looks from deep, and several players made one (Wright, Thompson, Vaughn [!]).

My concern for the second half was whether Buzz Williams was going to send everyone to crash the glass on missed shots and turn last night into a replay of the first game. Turns out, I needn't worry.

Marquette missed a lot of shots in the Vesper half - there were 22 available missed shots - but only grabbed 2 of their misses. And while the Hoyas bigs cooled off (Monroe and Vaughn made 2/8 2FG), the guards stepped up with a combined 10/12 2FG, 2/4 3FG to run away with the game.



INDIVIDUAL NET POINTS STATS

Georgetown            Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
Wright, Chris          60   22.0  100.7   13.3      60    85.9   10.3      +2.5  
Monroe, Greg           58   34.6  118.9   23.9      56    84.1    9.4     +10.7  
Freeman, Austin        57   14.6  151.5   12.6      57    87.1    9.9      +4.0  
Clark, Jason           57   12.3  175.7   12.3      59    83.5    9.8      +4.5  
Vaughn, Julian         43   16.5  116.4    8.2      42    65.4    5.5      +3.2  
Thompson, Hollis       25   11.1  150.8    4.2      26   113.7    5.9      -0.3  
Sanford, Vee            6   50.0   66.7    2.0       7    63.6    0.9      +0.6  
Dougherty, Ryan         2    0.0    -      0.0       3    71.1    0.4      -0.4  
Benimon, Jerrelle       9   16.6   72.8    1.1      10   130.0    2.6      -1.2  
STEPKA, Stephen         1    0.0    -      0.0       2   100.0    0.4      -0.4  
Sims, Henry             2    0.0    -      0.0       3    71.1    0.4      -0.4  
TOTALS                 64         123.3   77.6      65    85.6   55.7     +23.2  

Marquette             Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
JOHNSON-ODOM, Darius   51   20.7   50.7    5.3      53   142.7   15.1      -9.7  
ACKER, Maurice         60   19.2  129.7   15.0      60   119.4   14.3      +0.9  
CUBILLAN, David        56    9.8   70.4    3.9      56   121.4   13.6      -6.3  
HAYWARD, Lazar         55   27.7   86.2   13.1      54    99.8   10.8      +0.2  
BUTLER, Jimmy          62   21.2  115.0   15.1      61   121.8   14.9      -0.3  
CADOUGAN, Junior        5   43.3   61.5    1.3       4    90.0    0.7      -0.0  
WILLIAMS, Erik          3    0.0    -      0.0       2   120.0    0.5      -0.5  
FULCE, Joseph          11    9.1    0.0    0.0      10   140.0    2.8      -2.1  
BUYCKS, Dwight         22   17.8   23.4    0.9      20    83.6    3.3      -2.4  
TOTALS                 65          86.7   54.7      64   118.8   76.0     -20.9


Greg Monroe had a tremendous game tonight (duh).  He was 3 assists short of the first triple-double in Georgetown history [23 pts / 12 reb / 7 assists], and he was efficient [ORat = 119] while using 35% of available possessions.  The MSM is going wild over him right now, so I'll just leave it there.  But I will note that his FT shooting is giving me heartburn - at this point, I think that's the biggest hole in his game.

Julian Vaughn deserves some accolades after getting a lot of heat around here for struggling in February.  He made some shots, including the aforementioned "No-no-no-no-yes" 3FG, but the real story was his defense.  He's credited with only two blocks - it sure seemed like he had more - but was a real problem for Marquette all night.  For the last ten minutes of the game, it seemed that he had decided that the Eagles just weren't going to get a shot off in the paint.  His 6 defensive rebounds (of 28 available misses while he was in the game) were his most in a game since DePaul.

The stat line for Chris Wright looks ordinary for him, but his was the tale of two halves.  After struggling in the Lift-off half [ORat = 62, 18% Poss], Wright found another gear after halftime [ORat = 128, 27% Poss] to ensure the win.

At this point, I've decided that Austin Freeman is just not going to make an outside shot in this tournament [0/7 3FG combined].  I think he has too, as he attempted only one in the game, instead driving and taking mid-range shots.  I can't emphasize enough that Freeman is just an offensive machine, even when he can't find his shooting touch.

With Freeman's outside shot gone missing, Jason Clark continues to make enough to keep the defense honest.  He's also become decidedly more aggressive, as he took more 2FG than 3FG for the first time since the Providence game - so much for that one-dimensional comment I made.

Hollis Thompson was able to contribute offensively tonight, but his defense was surprisingly inadequate.  He'll need to play a stronger game against Da'Sean Butler and the rest of West Virginia's long players, as they may be too quick for Julian Vaughn to cover.



HD BOX SCORE

Georgetown vs Marquette
03/12/10 7:00 pm at New York, NY/MSG
Final score: Georgetown 80, Marquette 57

Georgetown              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
Wright, Chris          37:11  +23  15/76  4- 9  1- 2  4- 6 11/55  2/24  1/60  1/60  0/33  1/30  3/35   1
Monroe, Greg           34:18  +22  23/70  8-14  1- 1  4- 8 15/51  7/18  0/56  3/58  3/30  2/28 10/33   1
Freeman, Austin        36:02  +24  12/71  5- 8  0- 1  2- 2  9/52  3/22  0/57  1/57  0/31  2/29  6/34   3
Clark, Jason           36:07  +23  15/74  4- 6  2- 4  1- 1 10/54  3/23  1/59  1/57  0/29  1/29  4/35   1
Vaughn, Julian         25:28  +34   8/63  2- 5  1- 1  1- 2  6/40  1/22  0/42  1/43  2/25  2/17  6/28   4
Thompson, Hollis       16:46  - 5   5/27  1- 2  1- 1  0- 0  3/19  0/ 7  0/26  1/25  0/11  1/12  1/12   5
Sanford, Vee           03:54  - 4   2/ 2  0- 0  0- 1  2- 2  1/ 2  0/ 0  1/ 7  1/ 6  0/ 4  0/ 2  0/ 4   1
Dougherty, Ryan        01:39  + 0   0/ 2  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 1  0/ 0  0/ 3  0/ 2  0/ 1  0/ 1  0/ 2   0
Benimon, Jerrelle      06:11  - 2   0/11  0- 1  0- 1  0- 0  2/10  0/ 4  0/10  0/ 9  0/ 4  1/ 6  1/ 4   2
STEPKA, Stephen        00:45  + 0   0/ 2  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 2  0/ 1  0/ 1  0/ 0  1/ 1   0
Sims, Henry            01:39  + 0   0/ 2  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 1  0/ 0  0/ 3  0/ 2  0/ 1  0/ 1  0/ 2   0
TOTALS                 40:00       80    24-45  6-12 14-21    57 16/30  3/65  9/64  5/34 12/31 33/38  18
.                                        0.533 0.500 0.667       0.533 0.046 0.141 0.147 0.387 0.868    

Marquette               Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
JOHNSON-ODOM, Darius   33:20  -29   4/45  1- 5  0- 3  2- 2  8/43  3/14  0/53  1/51  1/39  0/31  2/24   3
ACKER, Maurice         37:13  -23  16/54  5- 8  2- 3  0- 3 11/51  2/12  1/60  0/60  0/45  0/35  2/29   2
CUBILLAN, David        34:10  -21   3/49  0- 0  1- 3  0- 0  3/46  4/16  0/56  2/56  0/40  0/32  3/27   3
HAYWARD, Lazar         34:29  -15  15/50  3- 9  2- 7  3- 3 16/44  0/12  3/54  2/55  0/38  0/30  3/27   5
BUTLER, Jimmy          38:19  -23  17/52  5-11  1- 1  4- 5 12/51  0/12  0/61  1/62  0/43  2/37  3/30   2
CADOUGAN, Junior       02:47  + 0   1/ 3  0- 0  0- 0  1- 2  0/ 3  0/ 1  0/ 4  1/ 5  0/ 0  1/ 3  0/ 2   2
WILLIAMS, Erik         01:39  + 0   0/ 2  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 3  0/ 1  0/ 2  0/ 3  0/ 0  0/ 2  0/ 1   0
FULCE, Joseph          05:32  - 2   0/12  0- 0  0- 1  0- 0  1/11  0/ 5  0/10  0/11  0/ 5  0/ 7  1/ 4   0
BUYCKS, Dwight         12:31  - 2   1/18  0- 1  0- 2  1- 3  3/18  0/ 7  1/20  0/22  0/15  0/13  2/11   1
TOTALS                 40:00       57    14-34  6-20 11-18    54  9/20  5/64  7/65  1/45  5/38 19/31  18
.                                        0.412 0.300 0.611       0.450 0.078 0.108 0.022 0.132 0.613    

Efficiency: Georgetown 1.250, Marquette 0.877
eFG%: Georgetown 0.579, Marquette 0.426
Substitutions: Georgetown 26, Marquette 24

2-pt Shot Selection:
Dunks: Georgetown 2-2, Marquette 1-1
Layups/Tips: Georgetown 20-35, Marquette 9-20
Jumpers: Georgetown 2-8, Marquette 4-13

Fast break pts (% FG pts): Georgetown 4 (6.1), Marquette 5 (10.9)
Pts (eff.) after steal: Georgetown 2 (66.7), Marquette 6 (120.0)
Seconds per poss: Georgetown 19.8, Marquette 17.4





---------

Stats pages will be updated after the BET.

BET log5 predictions, after quarterfinals

Here's the updated log5 analysis of the BET tourney, using the updated KenPom.com ratings, now that the quarterfinals are in the books.

With three of the four double bye teams losing, lots of change in the odds since yesterday. The biggest jump since the initial log5 prediction (the "Orig" column) unsurprisingly belongs to the Hoyas, who pulled off the biggest upset by knocking off the conference's best team and also saw the second best team on their half of the bracket eliminated.  West Virginia becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the 'chip.

Seed  Team     2nd Rnd   Quarters   Semis   Finals    Champ      Orig
9     USF        100       out       out      out      out        0.1
16    DePaul     out       out       out      out      out        0.0003
8     G'town      -        100       100     55.5     27.8        6.8
1     Cuse        -         -        out      out      out       28.9

12    UConn      out       out       out      out      out        0.8
13    St.J's     100       out       out      out      out        0.06
5     Marq        -        100       100     44.5     19.9        5.2
4     Nova        -         -        out      out      out       12.8

10    SHU        100       out       out      out      out        0.6
15    Provy      out       out       out      out      out        0.06
7     N.Dame      -        100       100     28.4     10.3        2.2
2     Pitt        -         -        out      out      out        9.8

11    Cinci      100       100       out      out      out        0.2
14    Rutgers    out       out       out      out      out        0.0009
6     L'ville     -        out       out      out      out        3.5
3     WVU         -         -        100     71.6     42.0       29.1
Editor's note: These are the percentage probabilities a team will make it to that round, based on KenPom ratings.
"100" means that team did advance to the round, a "-" means the team had a bye to that round.

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Recap: Georgetown 91, Syracuse 84

Georgetown rode the incredibly efficient offensive performances of Chris Wright, Greg Monroe and Jason Clark to an upset of top-seed Syracuse at the Big East tournament today.  This was the first win by the JTIII-led Hoyas against Syracuse away from the Verizon Center.

The Hoyas will take on the Marquette Golden Eagles, who pulled a mild upset of Villanova, tomorrow evening in the semi-finals.


Let's run the numbers:

TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Visitor                         Home      
.            Georgetown                      Syracuse         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            35        39        74

Effic.        106.3     137.2     123.2       114.9     111.8     113.7  
 
eFG%           53.2      75.0      63.2        70.4      57.8      63.6  
TO%            17.2      15.2      16.2        31.6      15.2      23.0  
OR%            25.0      38.5      31.0        41.7      18.8      28.6  
FT Rate        12.9      92.3      49.1        14.8      25.0      20.3  
 
Assist Rate    66.7      66.7      66.7        62.5      56.2      59.4  
Block Rate      0.0       4.3       2.6        20.0       0.0      10.3  
Steal Rate     20.1      15.2      17.6        14.4      12.7      13.5  
 
2FG%           60.0      78.9      69.2        62.5      47.8      53.8  
3FG%           27.3      42.9      33.3        54.5      55.6      55.0  
FT%           100.0      62.5      67.9        50.0      87.5      75.0

The big picture number today is the final offensive efficiency for Georgetown today.  The Hoyas finished the game averaging over 1.2 points per possession.  In their first 31 games of the season, the Syracuse Orange had only thrice allowed a team to score more than 1.1 points per possession:  Louisville (2 losses) and Providence (a win).

Because of the vaunted 2-3 zone, Syracuse normally forces teams to shoot a lot of outside shots:  opponents attempt 3FGs as 41% of all shots from the floor, which is the 10th highest rate against in Div-I.  Today, Georgetown resisted that temptation, as they shot 18 3FGAs on a total of 58 shot attempts [= 31%], just about at their season average [30%].

Instead, the Hoyas pounded it inside.  A lot.  If you've been paying attention around here, you may have noticed a post earlier this week breaking out each player's shot selection over the past three months of the season.  As a team, the Hoyas take 67% of their 2-pt shots as either dunks, layups or tip-ins - a fantastic percentage.  In today's game, Georgetown was even better, taking 82% of the shots from in close.

Those shots came from a variety of ways, either on the secondary break, post moves from Greg Monroe or off touch passes to a guard running the baseline (especially Chris Wright in the 1st half, but all the guards in the 2nd half).  And a lot of them went in - 67% of them, in fact.  That's actually not much higher than the Hoyas have averaged on layups and tips all season (61%).

This wasn't a fluke offensive performance, but rather a team successfully running a game strategy.  Of course, cutting the turnover rate down about four percentage points from the conference season average certainly helped by adding 4 possessions with a scoring attempt.


The biggest non-Georgetown story of the game was the shocking injury to Arinze Onuaku late in the game.  The extent of his knee injury should become known on Friday, but hopefully it just looked much worse than it was.  


INDIVIDUAL NET POINTS STATS

Georgetown            Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
Wright, Chris          72   23.4  145.7   24.5      72   107.4   15.5      +7.8  
Monroe, Greg           72   17.3  146.3   18.2      72    98.2   14.1      +5.0  
Freeman, Austin        67   23.1  111.3   17.2      68   103.4   14.1      +2.2  
Clark, Jason           65   18.6  136.5   16.5      67   115.8   15.5      +1.8  
Vaughn, Julian         16   11.8   94.0    1.8      18   180.6    6.5      -3.2  
Thompson, Hollis       48   20.0   95.2    9.1      48    89.8    8.6      +0.5  
Sanford, Vee            7   25.0   85.7    1.5       7    90.0    1.3      +0.1  
Benimon, Jerrelle      14   16.7   28.6    0.7      13   108.5    2.8      -2.0  
Sims, Henry             4    0.0    -      0.0       5   165.3    1.7      -1.7  
TOTALS                 73         123.7   89.6      74   108.1   80.0     +10.5  

Syracuse              Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
JACKSON, Rick          60   17.9   59.7    6.4      59   122.2   14.4      -7.4  
RAUTINS, Andy          74   19.8  117.3   17.2      73   126.7   18.5      -1.4  
JOHNSON, Wes           69   23.8  126.1   20.7      68   117.2   15.9      +3.1  
ONUAKU, Arinze         30    9.6  105.7    3.1      27   100.8    5.4      -1.1  
TRICHE, Brandon        32   14.6   82.1    3.8      31    94.3    5.8      -1.3  
JARDINE, Scoop         47   29.5  117.5   16.3      48   129.7   12.4      +1.1  
JOSEPH, Kris           58   17.5  155.9   15.9      59   126.4   14.9      +2.0  
TOTALS                 74         113.5   83.3      73   119.9   87.5      -4.4 

While for long stretches of the game it looked like the Wright and Monroe show, neither player used as many as 25% of available possessions, with Monroe actually using less than 20%.

Chris Wright had a great shooting game today - those driving layups that we talked about yesterday were dropping for him.  His shot selection (twice as many 2FGAs as 3FGs) was outstanding and appropriate.  He also was second on the team with 6 rebounds (5 defensive), as his motor looked to be running about one gear faster than everyone else out there.

Greg Monroe may still be receiving complaints for his passivity, but he willingly drew defenders to facilitate open looks for his teammates.  A point I only hear Doug Gottlieb mention afterward was that Monroe's defense against the Syracuse bigs was also a key aspect of the game.  The net points tracker brings it out a bit, but Monroe did a great job denying Onuaku touches and harassing Jackson all game.

If someone's seen Austin Freeman's outside shooting touch, please return it to MSG immediately.  Freeman is now 0-6 on 3FG in the Big East tournament.  Today he recognized what was working and what wasn't, and went hard to the basket to get layups and FTs.  He'll need to start making some outside shots for the Hoyas to continue to advance.

Jason Clark has been doing his best to cover for his teammate behind the arc:  his 3/7 3FG shooting today brings him up to 7/13 for the tourney, as it appears that his late-season shooting slump [9/31 in the seven games prior to this week] is over.  His excellent play so far is the biggest difference over the past few weeks, and if the announcers can get his name correct, I hope they acknowledge him a bit more.

Julian Vaughn didn't see a lot of playing time today, as he struggled defensively and was often replaced by Hollis Thompson.  Thompson was solid for a freshman in his first BET, until late in the game at the FT line where he missed 4 consecutive attempts.  At one point Austin Freeman clearly suggested that he "MAKE THEM."

Vee Sanford continues to see playing time with Freeman back, and continues to be a plus off the bench - his ability to be at least a modest scoring threat allows the offense to continue to run seamlessly when he's in (as opposed to Benimon and Sims).


HD BOX SCORE

Georgetown vs Syracuse
3/11/10 12:00 pm at New York, NY/MSG
Final score: Georgetown 91, Syracuse 84

Georgetown              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
Wright, Chris          38:48  + 9  27/89  8-11  2- 5  5- 6 16/57  6/22  2/72  3/72  0/36  1/30  5/27   2
Monroe, Greg           38:26  + 6  17/88  6- 9  0- 0  5- 8  9/56  7/26  4/72  2/72  1/37  1/29  9/27   3
Freeman, Austin        36:48  +10  16/84  6-11  0- 3  4- 4 14/52  3/24  3/68  1/67  0/37  2/27  2/27   2
Clark, Jason           36:44  + 4  17/83  3- 4  3- 7  2- 3 11/53  4/25  2/67  1/65  0/37  2/27  1/25   0
Vaughn, Julian         11:53  -11   4/19  2- 2  0- 0  0- 0  2/17  0/ 6  0/18  1/16  0/ 8  0/ 9  0/ 2   2
Thompson, Hollis       23:21  +18   8/66  1- 1  1- 3  3- 7  4/36  0/19  3/48  1/48  0/28  3/19  2/20   2
Sanford, Vee           03:36  + 3   2/ 8  1- 1  0- 0  0- 0  1/ 5  1/ 2  0/ 7  1/ 7  0/ 2  0/ 2  0/ 4   0
Benimon, Jerrelle      07:44  + 0   0/14  0- 1  0- 0  0- 0  1/10  1/ 6  0/13  1/14  0/ 6  0/ 5  0/ 5   2
Sims, Henry            02:40  - 4   0/ 4  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 4  0/ 2  0/ 5  0/ 4  0/ 4  0/ 2  0/ 3   0
TOTALS                 40:00       91    27-40  6-18 19-28    58 22/33 14/74 11/73  1/39  9/30 20/28  13
.                                        0.675 0.333 0.679       0.667 0.189 0.151 0.026 0.300 0.714    

Syracuse                Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
JACKSON, Rick          33:02  -14   4/65  2- 6  0- 0  0- 0  6/49  2/24  2/59  5/60  2/33  2/23  3/21   4
RAUTINS, Andy          40:00  - 7  14/84  1- 1  4- 9  0- 0 10/59 11/27  0/73  5/74  0/40  1/28  3/30   1
JOHNSON, Wes           38:14  - 6  24/79  7-12  3- 5  1- 2 17/55  1/20  3/68  3/69  2/37  2/26  5/28   5
ONUAKU, Arinze         17:02  + 6   3/37  1- 2  0- 0  1- 2  2/22  1/12  1/27  0/30  1/18  0/10  3/13   2
TRICHE, Brandon        18:07  + 4   2/39  1- 2  0- 0  0- 0  2/26  3/14  3/31  2/32  0/19  0/11  1/11   2
JARDINE, Scoop         23:44  -12  19/50  4- 9  2- 3  5- 6 12/37  1/13  0/48  2/47  0/24  0/19  2/22   3
JOSEPH, Kris           29:51  - 6  18/66  5- 7  2- 3  2- 2 10/47  0/18  0/59  0/58  0/29  2/23  3/25   4
TOTALS                 40:00       84    21-39 11-20  9-12    59 19/32  9/73 17/74  5/40  8/28 21/30  21
.                                        0.538 0.550 0.750       0.594 0.123 0.230 0.125 0.286 0.700    

Efficiency: Georgetown 1.247, Syracuse 1.135
eFG%: Georgetown 0.621, Syracuse 0.636
Substitutions: Georgetown 21, Syracuse 24

2-pt Shot Selection:
Dunks: Georgetown 0-0, Syracuse 1-1
Layups/Tips: Georgetown 22-33, Syracuse 17-29
Jumpers: Georgetown 5-7, Syracuse 3-9

Fast break pts (% FG pts): Georgetown 4 (5.6), Syracuse 7 (9.3)
Pts (eff.) after steal: Georgetown 23 (164.3), Syracuse 14 (155.6)
Seconds per poss: Georgetown 18.8, Syracuse 13.9





Occasional contributor Ray Floriani was at the game, and sent along his thoughts:
NEW YORK CITY - The offensive numbers were impressive. Georgetown had a 125 OE while Syracuse checked in at 114. The deciding factor was turnovers. The pace was 74 possessions as Syracuse will run. Georgetown is known for its Princeton (variation) offense but will push if the opportunity arises, especially off turnovers. Georgetown had an 11-9 scoring edge off fast breaks. Hoyas cared for the ball with a 16% rate while Syracuse was too high at 23%.

Georgetown missed a number of free throws in the stretch but still had a significant 50-20 edge in free throw rate. A look at three point attempts shows why. The Orange took 39% of their attempts beyond the arc, Georgetown took only 20%. In late game Syracuse was in a fouling mode which inflates the FT rate, but the Hoyas simply did a better job attacking the basket all game.

John Thompson III noted after beating a good South Florida team on Wednesday, his club is physically and emotionally at their best right now. It showed against Syracuse. The Hoyas are very loose yet playing hungry, poised to make a significant tourney run.

Coach Thompson also commented on Austin Freeman’s diabetes noting it hasn’t altered his stamina or performance. The changes are in his [Freeman’s] regular life as Thompson noted and in practice and games there is always someone there to monitor his condition.

Greg Monroe. At times I feel he should do more. The Hoya big man did go for 15 points 10 boards 7 assists, a nice complete game. Monroe doesn’t force the issue nor do they force it into him on offense. Thompson utilized his center's passing skills out of the mid- and high-post and when the time came he got the looks inside and utilized his nice baseline move on the blocks. His numbers and performance today were just fine.

Friday night is for the Big East Jesuit title, Georgetown-Marquette. Fully expect this to go to the wire.


-----------

Stats pages will be updated after the Big East tournament.

BET log5 predictions, after Round 2

Here's the updated log5 analysis of the BET tourney, using the updated KenPom.com ratings, after the 2nd round is in the books.

West Virginia is the big beneficiary of the action thus far, namely Cincinnati's upset of Louisville. Since the initial log5 prediction (the "Orig" column), their odds of a title have gone up nearly 3%, even more than the Hoyas', despite not playing.

Seed  Team     2nd Rnd   Quarters   Semis   Finals    Champ      Orig
9     USF        100       out       out      out      out        0.1
16    DePaul     out       out       out      out      out        0.0003
8     G'town      -        100      36.8     19.2      9.5        6.8
1     Cuse        -         -       63.2     41.2     25.6       28.9

12    UConn      out       out       out      out      out        0.8
13    St.J's     100       out       out      out      out        0.06
5     Marq        -        100      45.2     16.8      7.6        5.2
4     Nova        -         -       54.8     22.9     11.4       12.8

10    SHU        100       out       out      out      out        0.6
15    Provy      out       out       out      out      out        0.06
7     N.Dame      -        100      41.1     13.3      4.0        2.2
2     Pitt        -         -       58.9     23.5      9.0        9.8

11    Cinci      100       100      15.6      4.7      0.9        0.2
14    Rutgers    out       out       out      out      out        0.0009
6     L'ville     -        out       out      out      out        3.5
3     WVU         -         -       84.4     58.6     32.0       29.1
Editor's note: These are the percentage probabilities a team will make it to that round, based on KenPom ratings.
"100" means that team did advance to the round, a "-" means the team had a bye to that round.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Recap: Georgetown 69, South Florida 49

First, let me say "Hats off" to Mex Carey and his crack staff in the athletic department for posting a full stats package for today's game.  Most games played at MSG don't have this info, but the Georgetown website got the stats posted, and now I can post my interpretations.

For perhaps the first time this season, I'll write up the recap as a live blog.  And by "live" blog, I mean on a 10.5 hour time delay.

1st half
Opening tip to 15:44 (GU 4, USF 4):
  • Lots of fans disguised as empty seats to start the game.
  • Vaughn had a textbook post-up to start the game, then bobbled away a great pass from Monroe the next time down.  He has a nice block on defense in response.  It's the Julian Vaughn show.
  • Freeman bodies up on Jones (whom he's guarding on a switch) which results in a miss and a fastbreak layup for Wright.  Next time down, Clark guards Jones and gets taken inside for a layup.
  • Lots of turnovers so far:  2 for each team, on 7 possessions each.
15:44 - 11:48 (GU 14, USF 7)
  • Who is this reporter on the sidelines?  I've never seen her before.
  • Gilchrist looks like a good player - he just made a 15-foot jumper.  That'll be the only shot he makes this half.
  • Clark is working very hard on defense so far guarding Jones.
  • Monroe with a nice drive, and then a nice defensive rebound.  Sets up Wright, who gets the hoop and the harm (a bit of a wild drive in real time, but looked in control on the replay).
  • Vee Sanford sighting!  He appears to have secured a rotation spot.  Benimon up-and-under on a great pass from Monroe.  Fear the Hoyas bench.
  • Wright tries the same driving layup, this time no good.  I'd have to see that one again before I decide he was out of control.  But I think he was.
  • Fran Fraschilla is getting hungry.
 11:48 -7:13 (GU 19, USF 9)
  • Good interior defense by the Hoyas, but USF cleans up a blocked shot for a layup.
  • Jason Clark confused the NBA line for the college line, but still made the shot.
  • Freeman just had a ridiculous block on Jones after getting beat baseline.  He has such deceptive athleticism.
  • Monroe picked up a cheap foul chasing his own missed shot.  A bit of a frustration foul there.  Hoyas switch to a 2-3 zone once Monroe comes out.
  • Freeman with a great backdoor pass to Wright.  "Their cuts are like drives" says Doris Burke; she's used that line before.
  • Jones with an airball from deep.  USF will shoot 2/12 on jumpers in the Lift-off half, including 0/4 3FG.
7:13 - 3:33 (GU 24, USF 12)
  • With the slow pace and lousy outside shooting by the Bulls, this can't be entertaining to watch for any non-Georgetown fan.
  • Monroe back in, and the Hoyas go to a match-up 2/3 zone.  Whoops, he's back out already.  Did he sneak into the game when no one was looking?
  • Karl Hess just pointed about 4 different directions on a ball tipped out of bounds.  Finally, Hoyas ball (and I think the wrong call).
  • Freeman struggling to find his shot.  Missed a baseline jumper earlier, now missed a 3FG.
  • Clark with a between-the-legs dribble into a deep 3FG.  Who says he's only a spot-up shooter?  Oh yeah, that was me.
  • Uh-oh, Jones is finally done trying to set up his teammates.  Two consecutive drives for the foul, the second with a made basket.  If this team had a quality designated shooter (some scrub who could make 40%+ from deep), they'd be a bit more dangerous.  Jones looks like he's all alone out there.
3:33 - Halftime (GU 31 - USF 19)
  • Jason Clark cannot be stopped.  Streaky shooter, but feeling it today.
  • Jones has decided to go it alone.  Two great drives.
  • Monroe back in.  Fraschilla hates the move, then Greg grabs a rebound and scores on a drive.
  • Jones attacks Monroe for another 2 points (followed his own shot).  Kid looks like a pro.
  • Worst halftime interview in college basketball:  John Thompson III.  Never shows his cards.

Second half after a milk-and-cookies break.

2nd half
20:00 - 15:15 (GU 40 - USF 31)
  • Dave Pasch makes a big point about USF's 10 offensive rebounds (officially 9) in the 1st half, but that was on a whopping 23 opportunities - a ton of missed shots.
  • Bulls come out with 2 blocks and 4 points to get it an 8-point deficit.
  • Wright misses a lot of fast break layups trying to draw fouls.
  • Julian Vaughn was called for a foul while backing away from his man.  Literally no contact.
  • And again.  Well, on the replay, he gave a little push down low with his left hand.  Maybe last time too?  Down to a 6-point game.
  • Freeman can't buy a shot, but he draws some free throws.
  • Hoyas interior defense is getting torched off of Jones' passing.
  • Hollis Thompson makes a 3FG.  Georgetown's bench will score 8 points in the game, which is 8 more than the last game (against Cinci).
  • The soundtrack ESPN came up with is not good.  Maybe I'm just getting old.
15:15 - 11:28 (GU 48 - USF 36)
  • Wright hits a 20-foot jumper on a designed play.
  • In his mind, Greg Monroe has never committed a foul.  Doris Burke has his back this time.
  • Five minute monitor break, which changes nothing (checking Wright's jumper).  The arena is completely dead.
  • Jones is now throwing his body as Monroe or any other Hoya to draw fouls.  He's the Dwyane Wade of the Big East.
  • What a great fast break:  Monroe to Wright to Freeman.  I think Monroe is the best on the team at running the break.
11:28 -  7:30 (GU 53 - USF 39)
  • Monroe picks up his fourth foul on a moving screen. Fran and Doris point out that the call is usually the fault of the ball-handler.
  • Wright with a big 3FG after a long possession where the offense looks stagnant.
  • Vaughn fouls out on another moving screen.  Apparantly the officials decided at halftime to make that a point of emphasis.
  • Sims now in.  Doris Burke has a crush on him.
7:30 - 3:50 (GU 63 - USF 46)
  • Henry Sims with a spectacular block - of course he had his hand through the rim to get it.  Burke and Fraschilla explain why that wasn't the baseline official's missed call.  For some reason, I can't imagine Dick Vitale bothering to explain that.
  • Clark hits another 3FG from straight away - that's his shot.  Better save some for tomorrow.
  • I'm barely hanging in, and I'm a Hoya fan.  This is a tough game to watch.
  • Monroe gets clobbered by Jones and Gilchrist - no foul.  Gets his own miss and does get the call (and one).  Contact lens on the floor!
  • Monroe pulls out the spinning drive once again, finishing with his right hand.  And one.
3:50 - End of game (GU 69 - USF 49)
  • Will this game ever end? 
  • Vee Sanford had his jumpshot blocked.  He shoots down too low - that'll need to be corrected over the summer.
  • Dave Pasch letting his Syracuse show, talking about Michael Graham and Jim Boeheim.
  • South Florida makes a three, finally!
  • Game over.

Let's run the numbers:

TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Home                            Visitor   
.            Georgetown                      South Florida         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            29        33        62
 
Effic.        107.4     115.1     111.6        65.8      90.9      79.2  
 
eFG%           51.9      51.6      51.7        26.7      34.0      30.0  
TO%            13.9      18.2      16.2        17.3      21.2      19.4  
OR%            20.0      44.4      33.3        41.7      40.0      40.9  
FT Rate        11.1      18.8      15.3        23.3      72.0      45.5  

Assist Rate    58.3      46.7      51.9        37.5      62.5      50.0  
Block Rate     16.0      15.0      15.6         5.6      14.8      11.1  
Steal Rate      6.9      15.1      11.3         3.5       6.1       4.9  
 
2FG%           44.4      44.4      44.4        32.0      35.0      33.3  
3FG%           44.4      60.0      50.0         0.0      20.0      10.0  
FT%           100.0      83.3      88.9        42.9      72.2      64.0



INDIVIDUAL NET POINTS STATS

Georgetown            Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
Wright, Chris          55   19.7  132.6   14.4      54    75.8    8.2      +6.2  
Monroe, Greg           43   32.4  114.8   16.0      39    70.5    5.5      +8.3  
Freeman, Austin        60   22.6   70.5    9.6      57    83.0    9.5      -0.8  
Clark, Jason           53   14.8  160.5   12.6      53    63.8    6.8      +6.7  
Vaughn, Julian         25   33.5   83.8    7.0      27   100.8    5.4      +0.1  
Thompson, Hollis       25    7.1  119.2    2.1      23    51.5    2.4      +0.5  
Sanford, Vee            6   16.7    0.0    0.0       6   115.2    1.4      -1.3  
Dougherty, Ryan         2   50.0    0.0    0.0       3   126.7    0.8      -1.0  
Benimon, Jerrelle      36    9.6  158.3    5.4      36    67.7    4.9      +1.8  
STEPKA, Stephen         1    0.0    -      0.0       2   150.0    0.6      -0.6  
Sims, Henry             9    9.0  100.0    0.8      10    68.6    1.4      -0.2  
TOTALS                 63         108.5   67.9      62    75.4   46.7     +20.8  

South Florida         Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
HOWARD, Chris          54    8.6   96.9    4.5      55   116.4   12.8      -4.6  
JONES, Dominique       60   34.2   81.2   16.7      62   107.7   13.4      -1.1  
FAMOUS, Jarrid         25   35.7   86.8    7.7      30    73.2    4.4      +2.3  
FITZPATRICK, Toarlyn   45    9.3   59.5    2.5      44   106.1    9.3      -4.4  
MERCER, Mike           53   12.9   49.2    3.4      55   105.6   11.6      -6.1  
CRATER, Anthony        24    8.3    0.0    0.0      22   125.7    5.5      -4.0  
RIVAS, Alex             5    4.0  300.0    0.6       5    75.7    0.8      +0.1  
KARDOK, Ryan            5    2.9  300.0    0.4       4    63.8    0.5      +0.1  
NORIEGA, Shaun          2   12.5  300.0    0.8       1     0.0    0.0      +0.8  
BURWELL, Mike           2   50.0    0.0    0.0       1     0.0    0.0      +0.0  
GILCHRIST, Augustus    35   36.2   74.8    9.5      36   118.1    8.5      -2.3  
TOTALS                 62          75.0   46.0      63   106.0   66.8     -20.2



HD BOX SCORE

South Florida vs Georgetown
3/10/10 12:00 pm at New York, NY/MSG
Final score: Georgetown 69, South Florida 49

South Florida           Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
HOWARD, Chris          35:53  -18   5/44  2- 5  0- 0  1- 2  5/49  3/13  0/55  1/54  1/41  0/36  3/30   4
JONES, Dominique       39:17  -23  21/46  6-13  0- 3  9-14 16/53  4/ 9  1/62  6/60  1/45  1/41  4/33   3
FAMOUS, Jarrid         15:34  + 2   7/24  2- 8  0- 0  3- 4  8/24  0/ 5  0/30  1/25  0/21  4/18  3/14   3
FITZPATRICK, Toarlyn   29:02  -18   2/33  1- 2  0- 0  0- 1  2/33  0/10  1/44  1/45  3/32  2/25  2/26   1
MERCER, Mike           35:10  -20   2/41  1- 9  0- 0  0- 0  9/50  0/12  0/55  1/53  0/41  3/40  4/31   2
CRATER, Anthony        14:25  -13   0/14  0- 0  0- 2  0- 0  2/20  0/ 5  0/22  0/24  0/17  0/16  0/ 9   0
RIVAS, Alex            03:24  - 2   0/ 3  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 5  0/ 1  0/ 5  0/ 5  0/ 3  1/ 4  2/ 3   0
KARDOK, Ryan           02:44  - 1   0/ 3  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 4  1/ 1  1/ 4  0/ 5  0/ 4  0/ 3  0/ 3   0
NORIEGA, Shaun         00:43  + 3   3/ 3  0- 0  1- 1  0- 0  1/ 2  0/ 0  0/ 1  0/ 2  0/ 0  0/ 1  0/ 0   0
BURWELL, Mike          00:43  + 3   0/ 3  0- 0  0- 1  0- 0  1/ 2  0/ 1  0/ 1  0/ 2  0/ 0  0/ 1  0/ 0   0
GILCHRIST, Augustus    23:05  -13   9/31  3- 9  0- 2  3- 3 11/33  0/ 7  0/36  3/35  0/21  5/25  3/16   2
TOTALS                 40:00       49    15-46  1- 9 16-24    55  8/16  3/63 13/62  5/45 18/42 22/33  15
.                                        0.326 0.111 0.667       0.500 0.048 0.210 0.111 0.429 0.667    

Georgetown              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
Wright, Chris          34:21  +16  15/59  4-12  2- 2  1- 1 14/50  4/17  0/54  0/55  0/38  1/28  5/34   4
Monroe, Greg           24:17  +19  16/49  7-14  0- 0  2- 2 14/41  2/13  0/39  4/43  1/29  2/21  5/24   4
Freeman, Austin        37:18  +24   8/67  3- 9  0- 3  2- 2 12/56  4/23  0/57  2/60  1/42  1/31  1/38   0
Clark, Jason           35:07  +20  16/62  2- 4  4- 6  0- 0 10/54  2/18  3/53  0/53  0/41  1/30  5/35   1
Vaughn, Julian         16:58  - 4   6/21  2- 2  0- 0  2- 2  2/22  1/ 6  0/27  5/25  3/20  2/14  0/15   5
Thompson, Hollis       16:23  +17   3/33  0- 1  1- 1  0- 0  2/24  1/12  1/23  0/25  0/21  0/12  1/20   4
Sanford, Vee           03:39  - 2   0/ 4  0- 0  0- 2  0- 0  2/ 5  0/ 2  0/ 6  0/ 6  0/ 6  0/ 3  0/ 7   0
Dougherty, Ryan        01:04  - 1   0/ 2  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 1  0/ 1  0/ 3  1/ 2  0/ 1  0/ 0  0/ 2   0
Benimon, Jerrelle      23:58  +15   4/41  2- 3  0- 0  0- 0  3/34  1/13  1/36  0/36  1/24  3/20  2/25   2
STEPKA, Stephen        00:43  - 3   0/ 0  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 2  0/ 1  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 1   0
Sims, Henry            06:12  - 1   1/ 7  0- 0  0- 0  1- 2  0/ 8  0/ 3  0/10  0/ 9  1/ 8  0/ 6  2/ 9   1
TOTALS                 40:00       69    20-45  7-14  8- 9    59 15/27  5/62 12/63  7/46 11/33 24/42  21
.                                        0.444 0.500 0.889       0.556 0.081 0.190 0.152 0.333 0.571    

Efficiency: Georgetown 1.095, South Florida 0.790
eFG%: Georgetown 0.517, South Florida 0.300
Substitutions: Georgetown 37, South Florida 32

2-pt Shot Selection:
Dunks: Georgetown 0-0, South Florida 4-6
Layups/Tips: Georgetown 16-35, South Florida 9-28
Jumpers: Georgetown 4-10, South Florida 2-12

Fast break pts (% FG pts): Georgetown 11 (18.0), South Florida 0 (0.0)
Pts (eff.) after steal: Georgetown 8 (160.0), South Florida 1 (33.3)
Seconds per poss: Georgetown 18.3, South Florida 20.2

Friday, March 13, 2009

BET log5 predictions, after quarterfinals

From Tom, via HoyaTalk.

Here's the updated log5 analysis of the BET tourney, using the updated KenPom.com ratings, after the 3rd round.

Lots of movement yesterday, as Louisville and West Virginia were the big winners in terms of best odds of winning the championship.

However, Tom's predictions for yesterday didn't include that Cuse/UConn would play a 6-OT game, so I'm not sure if we can trust anything else he says.


Seed  Team     2nd Rnd   Quarters   Semis   Finals    Champ
9 Cinci out out out out out
16 DePaul 100.0% out out out out
8 Provy - 100.0% out out out
1 L'ville - - 100.0% 63.77% 35.35%

12 G'town out out out out out
13 St.J's 100.0% out out out out
5 Marq - 100.0% out out out
4 Nova - - 100.0% 36.23% 15.06%

10 N.Dame 100.0% out out out out
15 Rutgers out out out out out
7 WVU - 100.0% 100.0% 60.28% 32.34%
2 Pitt - - out out out

11 SHU 100.0% out out out out
14 USF out out out out out
6 Cuse - 100.0% 100.0% 39.72% 17.26%
3 UConn - - out out out
Editor's note: These percentages are the probability a team will make it to that round, based on KenPom ratings.

Thursday, March 12, 2009

BET log5 predictions, after Round 2

From Tom, via HoyaTalk:

Here's the updated log5 analysis of the BET tourney, using the updated KenPom.com ratings, after the 2nd round.

The seeds holding on Day 2 worsened the odds for all the double-bye teams, but not by that much. Biggest beneficiary so far is Marquette, whose odds have increased about 4%.

Seed  Team     2nd Rnd   Quarters   Semis   Finals    Champ
9 Cinci out out out out out
16 DePaul 100.0% out out out out
8 Provy - 100.0% 13.47% 2.86% 0.36%
1 L'ville - - 86.53% 54.86% 25.79%

12 G'town out out out out out
13 St.J's 100.0% out out out out
5 Marq - 100.0% 48.04% 19.88% 6.60%
4 Nova - - 51.96% 22.40% 7.82%

10 N.Dame 100.0% out out out out
15 Rutgers out out out out out
7 WVU - 100.0% 40.32% 18.62% 10.04%
2 Pitt - - 59.68% 33.21% 20.97%

11 SHU 100.0% out out out out
14 USF out out out out out
6 Cuse - 100.0% 31.66% 11.22% 6.13%
3 UConn - - 68.34% 36.95% 23.38%
Editor's note: These percentages are the probability a team will make it to that round, based on KenPom ratings.

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

BET log5 Prediction, after Round 1

From Tom, via HoyaTalk:

Here's the updated log5 analysis of the BET tourney, using the updated KenPom.com ratings, after the 1st round:

Seed  Team     2nd Rnd   Quarters   Semis   Finals    Champ
9 Cinci out out out out out
16 DePaul 100.0% 15.20% 0.42% 0.02% 0.00%
8 Provy - 84.80% 11.61% 2.76% 0.35%
1 L'ville - - 87.97% 57.69% 27.02%

12 G'town out out out out out
13 St.J's 100.0% 16.12% 2.07% 0.24% 0.02%
5 Marq - 83.88% 36.42% 13.29% 3.85%
4 Nova - - 61.51% 26.00% 8.98%

10 N.Dame 100.0% 27.57% 5.49% 1.35% 0.42%
15 Rutgers out out out out out
7 WVU - 72.43% 28.63% 12.85% 6.82%
2 Pitt - - 65.88% 36.25% 22.85%

11 SHU 100.0% 22.04% 2.45% 0.34% 0.07%
14 USF out out out out out
6 Cuse - 77.96% 23.89% 8.54% 4.78%
3 UConn - - 73.66% 40.67% 25.85%
Editor's note: These percentages are the probability a team will make it to that round, based on KenPom ratings.

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Recap: BET 1st round, St. John's 64, Georgetown 59

Well, that's one game closer to the end of this execrable season.

The Hoyas once again lost to the St. John's Redmen in Madison Square Garden, putting an end to their Big East Tournament the same day it started. This is the 1st time Georgetown was put out in the 1st round since the 2004 tournament.

Once again, I can't track down a workable play-by-play for the game, so I'll just post a tempo-free box score.

Let's run the numbers:

.                     Offense                            Defense
. 1st Half 2nd Half Total 1st Half 2nd Half Total
Pace 33 32 65

Eff. 85.5 96.0 90.7 91.6 105.3 98.4

eFG% 36.2 47.4 40.6 42.0 36.5 39.2
TO% 21.4 24.8 23.1 18.3 21.7 20.0
OR% 40.0 33.3 37.5 16.7 47.4 32.4
FTA/FGA 31.0 94.7 56.3 44.0 69.2 56.9
FTM/FGA 24.1 68.4 41.7 36.0 57.7 47.1

Assist Rate 40.0 50.0 44.4 33.3 44.4 38.9
Block Rate 4.3 0.0 2.9 10.0 35.0 22.5
Steal Rate 6.1 18.6 12.3 15.3 9.3 12.3

2FG% 39.1 54.5 44.1 30.0 40.0 35.0
3FG% 16.7 25.0 21.4 60.0 16.7 36.4
FT% 77.8 72.2 74.1 81.8 83.3 82.8

When you look at the tempo-free numbers, you should realize just how close this game actually was.

Georgetown ended the game with a higher eFG%, better rebounding and equivalent FTA rate to St. John's. The Redmen simply made more FTs than you'd expect (the Johnies shot 65% in conference play, but 85% in two games against the Hoyas) and committed two fewer turnovers. In fact, I just looked it up and the two Georgetown games were the only conference games where St. John's shot better than 80%.

Sometimes, it's just not going to be your year.

I could go own, but just lack the will right now.


The Hoyas will presumably compete in a post-season tournament (NIT?), so no end-of-season review until then.

I'll update the sidebar stats pages in the next few days. Hopefully Tom will update the log5 predictions for the rest of the tournament either late tonight or tomorrow morning.

Monday, March 9, 2009

BET log5 Prediction

Here's the log5 analysis of the BET tourney, using the updated KenPom.com ratings:

Seed  Team     2nd Rnd   Quarters   Semis   Finals    Champ
9 Cinci 85.45% 40.54% 5.11% 1.11% 0.13%
16 DePaul 14.55% 1.94% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Provy - 57.52% 7.93% 1.86% 0.24%
1 L'ville - - 86.91% 56.92% 26.71%

12 G'town 84.68% 41.91% 17.93% 6.53% 1.86%
13 St.J's 15.32% 2.31% 0.28% 0.03% 0.00%
5 Marq - 55.79% 24.15% 8.90% 2.58%
4 Nova - - 57.64% 24.64% 8.54%

10 N.Dame 85.68% 23.23% 4.57% 1.11% 0.34%
15 Rutgers 14.32% 0.84% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
7 WVU - 75.93% 30.15% 13.59% 7.27%
2 Pitt - - 65.24% 35.93% 22.72%

11 SHU 71.18% 14.53% 1.49% 0.19% 0.03%
14 USF 28.82% 2.71% 0.12% 0.01% 0.00%
6 Cuse - 82.76% 25.47% 9.08% 5.05%
3 UConn - - 72.92% 40.10% 25.53%
Editor's note: These percentages are the probability a team will make it to that round, based on KenPom ratings.

Make of these what you will. As I said last year, efficiency ratings are not destiny.

If you want a sign of optimism, out of all the teams playing on Tuesday, the Hoyas have by far the best chance of making a deep run.

Sunday, March 16, 2008

Analysis: Pittsburgh 74, Georgetown 65

Well, Edited, to use the vernacular. The tempo-free box has everything I want to talk about, so I'll go ahead and run the numbers:

                        Offense                            Defense
1st Half 2nd Half Total 1st Half 2nd Half Total
Pace 27 37 64

Eff. 102.9 100.1 101.3 114.0 116.3 115.3

eFG% 61.4 48.4 53.7 48.3 54.5 51.0
TO% 22.1 21.6 21.8 22.1 16.2 18.7
OR% 18.2 27.8 24.1 55.0 38.1 46.3
FTA/FGA 9.1 21.9 16.7 27.6 163.6 86.3
FTM/FGA 4.5 18.8 13.0 10.3 86.4 43.1

Assist Rate 63.6 57.1 60.0 58.3 54.5 56.5
Block Rate 10.0 10.0 10.0 20.0 18.8 19.4
Steal Rate 7.4 10.8 9.4 11.0 5.4 7.8

2FG% 60.0 55.0 56.7 40.0 56.3 47.2
3FG% 41.7 25.0 33.3 44.4 33.3 40.0
FT% 50.0 85.7 77.8 37.5 52.8 50.0


Pittsburgh Panthers vs Georgetown
03/15/08 9:07 p.m . at New York, N.Y. @ MSG
Final score: Pittsburgh Panthers 74, Georgetown 65

Pittsburgh Panthers Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF
Benjamin, Keith 25:28 + 7 4 /43 2 -6 0 -1 0 -0 7 /34 4 /14 0 /35 1 /35 0 /15 3 /27 3 /17 2
Young, Sam 36:12 + 4 16/63 5 -8 1 -4 3 -8 12/45 0 /13 0 /59 4 /59 3 /29 3 /39 3 /26 1
Blair, DeJuan 19:03 + 9 10/38 3 -8 0 -0 4 -8 8 /29 0 /11 1 /28 1 /27 0 /13 7 /22 3 /13 3
Fields, Levance 36:17 + 12 10/68 1 -7 1 -3 5 -13 10/48 6 /19 2 /59 1 /61 0 /30 1 /40 4 /28 0
Ramon, Ronald 36:38 + 1 17/66 2 -2 2 -5 7 -10 7 /46 1 /16 3 /58 1 /57 0 /28 1 /38 4 /24 1
Biggs, Tyrell 24:45 + 5 5 /47 2 -2 0 -0 1 -2 2 /28 1 /11 0 /39 1 /40 0 /20 0 /21 4 /19 4
Brown, Gilbert 21:37 + 7 12/45 2 -3 2 -2 2 -3 5 /25 1 /8 0 /37 1 /36 0 /20 3 /18 0 /18 1
TOTALS 40:00 74 17-36 6 -15 22-44 51 13/23 6 /63 10/63 3 /31 19/41 22/29 12
0.472 0.400 0.500 0.565 0.095 0.159 0.097 0.463 0.759

Georgetown Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF
Summers, DaJuan 22:50 - 6 9 /29 4 -4 0 -3 1 -2 7 /26 1 /8 0 /34 3 /33 0 /25 1 /14 5 /27 5
Sapp, Jessie 23:23 + 6 9 /41 0 -2 3 -6 0 -0 8 /31 1 /12 0 /30 3 /35 1 /18 0 /15 2 /22 2
Hibbert, Roy 28:31 + 5 17/50 8 -15 0 -0 1 -1 15/42 1 /11 0 /40 1 /48 1 /21 2 /23 4 /26 4
Wallace, Jonathan 32:47 - 5 12/56 2 -3 2 -6 2 -2 9 /47 5 /18 0 /55 1 /55 0 /30 1 /24 1 /35 1
Freeman, Austin 25:37 - 9 9 /44 0 -1 3 -6 0 -0 7 /37 1 /14 0 /41 0 /40 0 /25 0 /19 0 /22 2
Macklin, Vernon 10:54 - 14 0 /15 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0 0 /12 1 /6 0 /22 0 /16 1 /15 0 /6 1 /14 1
Wright, Chris 17:45 - 15 0 /31 0 -2 0 -2 0 -0 4 /29 0 /12 0 /32 2 /30 0 /18 0 /17 2 /18 3
Rivers, Jeremiah 10:07 - 5 1 /12 0 -0 0 -0 1 -2 0 /9 0 /4 1 /18 1 /14 0 /7 0 /5 3 /11 5
Crawford, Tyler 01:52 - 3 0 /0 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0 0 /2 0 /0 1 /3 0 /1 0 /0 0 /1 1 /1 0
Ewing, Patrick 26:14 + 1 8 /47 3 -4 0 -1 2 -2 5 /40 3 /15 3 /41 1 /43 3 /21 1 /21 1 /29 5
TOTALS 40:00 65 17-31 8 -24 7 -9 55 13/25 5 /63 13/63 6 /36 7 /29 22/41 28
0.548 0.333 0.778 0.520 0.079 0.206 0.167 0.241 0.537

Efficiency: Pittsburgh Panthers 1.175, Georgetown 1.032
eFG%: Pittsburgh Panthers 0.510, Georgetown 0.527
Substitutions: Pittsburgh Panthers 65, Georgetown 65

2-pt Shot Selection:
Dunks: Pittsburgh Panthers 2-2, Georgetown 2-2
Layups/Tips: Pittsburgh Panthers 7-17, Georgetown 14-23
Jumpers: Pittsburgh Panthers 8-17, Georgetown 1-6

Comments:

  • For the second time in three games (Villanova), the Hoyas played a Hoya-paced first half, and a North Carolina-paced second. Of course, when fouls short-circuit possessions and you spend a couple minutes in the three-and-foul strategy, that will increase the pace (the real meaning of "extend the game," formerly the sole appearance of tempo-free stats).
  • No, Pitt's second half FTA rate is not a typo, unfortunately.
  • Nor are the offensive rebounding numbers, either for Pitt or the Hoyas. To the extent this game wasn't lost on free throws, it was lost on the boards. Then again, losing on the boards is not an unfamiliar story against the Panthers.
  • The other familiar story from the first game is that the Hoya offense did about as well as expected (Exp OffEff: 108.9), but the defense didn't do nearly as well as expected (Exp DefEff: 99.9). Granted, it still wasn't the 133.8 of the second half of the previous Pitt game, but it's still not good.
  • Another familiar story: Pitt's block rate. The Hoyas did at least manage to block some shots of their own this time, unlike the first game.
  • One of the keys to winning three games in three days is bench scoring. For the Hoyas today, that was 1 FT by Baby Doc and PE2's 8 coming late in the game. Pitt had 17, including 8 by Gilbert Brown in that first half when it looked like Pitt might be blown out of the building.
  • I haven't stopped by HoyaTalk in a while, but I suspect it's in mini-meltdown mode. Admittedly, this is really a downer way to go into the NCAA tournament, but Pitt ain't bad and the Hoyas are still a very good team. Check out the KenPom ratings: the Hoyas are at .973, 7th overall, right where they were before this game. Compare that to a couple weeks ago, when they were at .966, 11th or 12th overall, and behind Marquette. This is a #2 seed that's won 8 of its last 10, not a reeling team that ends up as a #4.


Individual and team stats will be updated tomorrow.
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UPDATE (3/16/08, 1604 CT): Individual and team stats are now updated.