Recap: Georgetown 74, Belmont 59

Image from here

Woo-hoo! The Hoyas used their secret weapon (the 2-3 zone) to slow down a very scary Belmont offensive attack, while playing one of their strongest offensive games of the season to handle the Bruins, 74-69.

Just a few bullet points for tonight:

•  As noted by Ken Pomeroy, Belmont shooting 10/27 [37%] on 3FG was not a bad result for the Bruins. The team led the Atlantic Sun conference by making 39.5% of their threes, so the Hoyas only nudged them a touch under their league average. Belmont also attempted half of all field goals from behind the arc, a bit higher than the 41% clip that they typically use. But it should be pointed out that the Bruins played very differently in each half:
• 1st: 3/8 2FG, 6/15 3FG, 3/7 FT
• 2nd: 8/19 2FG, 4/12 3FG, 4/4 FT
• In the end, Belmont scored at a clip of 1.00 points per possessions. You can stare at Belmont's offensive stats (i.e. Georgetown's defensive stats) as much as you'd like, but the game played at about the way you'd expect for a great offense [adj. OEff = 116.5] vs. a great defense [adj. DEff = 87.4].
• The difference in the game today was the Hoyas' shooting. Georgetown's eFG = 66.3% was the biggest number put up against Belmont all season, and only two teams had previously made it north of 60% against the Bruins (Memphis and Stetson). 
• Why did the Hoyas shoot so well? They took advantage of their huge size advantage to make nearly all their shots close to the basket: Georgetown shot 20/22 on dunks, layups and tip-ins. For Belmont, once they let the Hoyas get the ball in deep it was an almost automatic two points.
• There were three stars for the Hoyas tonight: Jason Clark, Otto Porter and Henry Sims.
• Jason Clark was the star of the game for the Hoyas because he made shots [6/7 2FG, 3/5 3FG]. I've been loath to point it out, but Jason has been mired in a shooting slump throughout Big East play. Did you know that Nate Lubick [2/7 3FG (29 %)] actually shot better behind the arc than Clark [22/82 3FG (27%)]? So Jason's hot hand to start the game [1st half: 2/3 2FG, 3/4 3FG] was both a relief, and a concern (can he keep it up?). Clark smartly holstered his outside shot - only one attempt - in the second half, instead driving the lane for layups.
• As noted by Jack in comments, Henry used an amazing 43% of possessions while he was on the floor. How? He took shots (12 of GU's 34 field goal attempts while he was in the game), he set up others (5 assists) and he occasionally gave the ball away (3 TOs). Note that most of Henry's work came in the second half, as he had to sit with two fouls after 12 possessions played in the game - I wonder if it was a combination of JT3's strategy and Sims trying to play catch-up.
•  I'm still trying to figure out how Otto Porter was left off the All-Rookie team for the Big East. Otto had 16 pts, 8 reb, 0 turnovers, and you just come to expect it. By my reckoning - the Net Points stats found below the jump - Porter hasn't been less than very good since at Seton Hall.

The Hoyas will move on to play North Carolina State on Sunday at 12:15 pm in the round of 32.


Let's run the numbers:

TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Home                            Visitor   
.            Georgetown                      Belmont         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            29        31        59
 
Points          36        38        74          27        32        59   

Effic.        126.3     123.8     124.9        94.7     104.2      99.5  
 
eFG%           61.5      71.7      66.3        52.2      45.2      48.1  
TO%            17.5      22.8      20.2        21.0       9.8      15.2  
OR%            38.5      25.0      33.3        25.0      31.6      28.6  
FTA/FGA        19.2      34.8      26.5        30.4      12.9      20.4  

Assist Rate    28.6      62.5      46.7        77.8      75.0      76.2  
Block Rate     12.5      10.5      11.1         0.0       0.0       0.0  
Steal Rate      7.0       0.0       3.4         3.5       6.5       5.1  
 
2FG%           58.8      75.0      67.6        37.5      42.1      40.7  
3FG%           44.4      33.3      41.7        40.0      33.3      37.0  
FT%            80.0      62.5      69.2        42.9     100.0      63.6

more stats after the jump

Analysis: Breaking Down Belmont and Anticipating the Eagles

As noted by the Washington Post's Camille Powell, as the first round game between No. 2 Georgetown and No. 15 Belmont wound down on Thursday, the Hoyas' fans began a chant of "Where is Belmont?" Belmont fans quickly countered with "What's a Hoya?" Touche, Bruins. Touche.

Unfortunately for them, it was the only counter Belmont found all day against Georgetown, as the Hoyas cruised in their NCAA Tournament opener.

There's not a lot to analyze from a 25 point victory that was essentially over at the half, but a few bullet points:

• Jesse Sapp's perimeter game is back on track after missing 25 of 27 three-point attempts since his three huge shots from behind the arc against Villanova, Feb. 17. If he stays hot, that would be a huge help to Georgetown as they try to break down opponents playing zone defensive schemes.

• Lackadaisical turnovers are still problematic for the Hoyas. Sapp and freshman DaJuan Summers especially have had recent trouble in this regard and also accounted for 6 of the Hoyas' 12 turnovers against Belmont. GU was also lucky to avoid a few more bobbles by regaining possession. These kinds of errors would be a killer if the Hoyas were to advance and face North Carolina. Better focus will be needed.

• Jeff Green played well, but picked up two quick unnecessary fouls. You can't fault a guy for being aggressive, but Green needs to be smarter from here out. The Hoyas' bench is adequate, but replacing a player of Green's caliber is virtually impossible.

• One benefit of that foul trouble was that Green, and also Roy Hibbert, spent a lot of time on the bench. The two only played 45 minutes combined and should be well rested against B.C.

Boston College entered the tournament having dropped 5 of their last 7 games and have not mustered much swagger since an awful performance at home against Duke derailed them on Feb. 14. During that game, the Eagles essentially gave up on a number of fast break points by the Blue Devils.

B.C. is a moody team and that attitude has been almost as problematic as the team's non-existent defense. The Eagles are 202nd in the nation in scoring defense, allowing opponents to shoot 44.4% against them on average. Without shot blocker Sean Williams roaming the lane anymore, Georgetown should be able to expoit B.C. inside. And if the Hoyas get up early and frustrate B.C.'s three-headed scoring monster of Sean Marshall, Tyrese Rice and ACC Player of the Year Jared Dudley, then B.C. might go quietly. Assuming they will do so against a former Big East rival however, is probably wishful thinking.

One final note to be made is the recent defensive performance of GU's Summers. Lately Summers has been superb in generating turnovers by deflecting passes, stripping careless ball handlers and using his long wingspan to block shots. In doing so, Summers is anticipating well and is turning into a tremendous weakside defender.

His face up defense has been another issue. Against speedy point guard Tory Jackson of Notre Dame, Summers looked badly outmatched, as Jackson blew by him at least twice for easy layups in the Big East Tournament Semifinals. If Georgetown decides to match up Summers with Dudley, it could be a tough assignment. Don't be surprised to see Patrick Ewing Jr. and Jeremiah Rivers get some run, as the Hoyas try to contest the Eagles' perimeter game.

News: Hoyas 80, Belmont 55

Georgetown overcame a slow start (down 11-4, 6+ minutes in) to win going away, 80-55. HoyaSaxa.com has a nice write-up on the frontpage, with press links promised later. Fan reaction on this thread on HoyaTalk.

Here's the box score:

  Belmont vs Georgetown 
 03/15/07 2:50 p.m. at Winston-Salem, N.C. 
 Final score: Georgetown 80, Belmont 55
   
 Belmont                 Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF 
 Dotson, Matthew        24:48  - 17 5 /32 1 -3  1 -3  0 -0  6 /31 1 /9  0 /38 2 /38 0 /25 1 /24 2 /20  0  
 Preston, Andrew        19:27  - 3  14/33 5 -7  0 -1  4 -9  8 /25 1 /7  0 /28 2 /30 0 /11 3 /17 1 /11  4  
 Goodwin, Josh          19:42  - 9  0 /29 0 -0  0 -0  0 -0  0 /28 1 /11 0 /29 1 /28 0 /22 1 /18 1 /17  1  
 Harris, Henry          24:25  - 12 7 /36 2 -3  1 -2  0 -0  5 /32 0 /10 1 /39 1 /35 0 /24 3 /21 2 /19  1  
 Wicke, Andy            29:31  - 17 6 /42 0 -0  2 -11 0 -0  11/41 2 /13 1 /48 4 /48 0 /30 1 /30 0 /21  3  
 Belcher, Keaton        09:32  - 15 1 /5  0 -0  0 -1  1 -2  1 /15 0 /2  0 /15 0 /17 0 /12 1 /13 2 /8   0  
 House, Andrew          00:50  + 0  2 /2  1 -1  0 -1  0 -0  2 /3  0 /0  0 /1  0 /2  0 /1  1 /2  0 /0   0  
 Dansby, Shane          17:09  - 14 4 /24 2 -4  0 -0  0 -0  4 /26 0 /6  2 /27 1 /28 0 /12 3 /23 2 /6   2  
 Dejworek, Mike         00:42  + 0  0 /2  0 -0  0 -0  0 -0  0 /3  1 /1  0 /1  0 /2  0 /1  0 /2  0 /0   0  
 Hare, Justin           29:04  - 21 10/40 1 -4  2 -7  2 -2  11/40 1 /11 1 /45 0 /48 0 /24 0 /32 2 /18  0  
 Brand, Patrick         00:42  + 0  0 /2  0 -0  0 -0  0 -0  0 /3  0 /1  0 /1  0 /2  0 /1  0 /2  0 /0   0  
 Herndon, Boomer        12:48  - 6  5 /15 2 -8  0 -0  1 -2  8 /18 0 /4  1 /20 0 /19 1 /15 0 /13 1 /11  0  
 Peeples, Will          11:20  - 11 1 /13 0 -0  0 -0  1 -2  0 /15 3 /5  0 /18 2 /18 0 /7  1 /13 2 /4   5  
 TOTALS                 40:00       55    14-30 6 -26 9 -17    56 10/20 6 /62 13/63 1 /37 15/42 15/27  16 
                                          0.467 0.231 0.529       0.500 0.097 0.206 0.027 0.357 0.556     
  
 Georgetown              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF 
 Summers, DaJuan        30:18  + 19 6 /52 2 -6  0 -3  2 -3  9 /40 2 /17 0 /45 3 /44 1 /22 2 /23 2 /32  2  
 Green, Jeff            23:13  + 5  15/35 6 -8  0 -1  3 -4  9 /30 0 /7  1 /34 0 /35 0 /18 0 /19 3 /22  3  
 Hibbert, Roy           21:12  + 20 10/41 4 -10 0 -0  2 -3  10/36 4 /13 1 /32 0 /31 3 /14 7 /20 6 /21  3  
 Wallace, Jonathan      30:31  + 22 6 /55 0 -2  2 -4  0 -0  6 /44 2 /19 2 /46 1 /45 0 /23 1 /24 2 /31  1  
 Sapp, Jessie           33:17  + 18 20/61 4 -4  4 -6  0 -0  10/41 1 /14 3 /53 3 /51 0 /25 0 /22 6 /34  0  
 Macklin, Vernon        09:42  + 7  8 /28 2 -2  0 -0  4 -5  2 /10 0 /7  0 /17 1 /18 0 /5  0 /3  4 /12  2  
 Izzo, Kenny            00:50  + 0  0 /2  0 -0  0 -0  0 -0  0 /1  0 /1  0 /2  0 /1  0 /1  0 /0  0 /2   0  
 Rivers, Jeremiah       17:40  + 7  3 /43 1 -1  0 -0  1 -2  1 /23 7 /14 1 /27 1 /28 0 /13 0 /10 1 /18  0  
 Crawford, Tyler        12:14  + 11 3 /37 0 -0  1 -1  0 -0  1 /16 0 /12 0 /21 2 /21 0 /8  0 /4  0 /11  2  
 SPANN, Octavius        02:07  + 0  2 /9  1 -1  0 -0  0 -0  1 /3  0 /2  0 /6  0 /5  0 /2  0 /0  0 /4   0  
 Ewing, Patrick         16:59  + 13 5 /28 2 -3  0 -1  1 -1  4 /18 1 /7  1 /27 1 /26 0 /17 2 /10 2 /19  2  
 Dizdarevic, Sead       01:57  + 3  2 /9  0 -0  0 -0  2 -2  0 /3  0 /3  0 /5  1 /5  0 /2  0 /0  1 /4   1  
 TOTALS                 40:00       80    22-37 7 -16 15-20    53 17/29 9 /63 13/62 4 /30 12/27 27/42  16 
                                          0.595 0.438 0.750       0.586 0.143 0.210 0.133 0.444 0.643     
   
 Efficiency: Georgetown 1.290, Belmont 0.873
 eFG%: Georgetown 0.613, Belmont 0.411
 Substitutions: Georgetown 22, Belmont 54
   
 2-pt Shot Selection: 
 Dunks: Georgetown 2-2, Belmont 0-0
 Layups/Tips: Georgetown 13-18, Belmont 10-16
 Jumpers: Georgetown 7-17, Belmont 4-14

Keys to the game:

• Belmont shot 41.1% eFG, almost 14% below their average; the Hoyas had eFG = 61.3%. Remember that Belmont was 4th nationally in eFG% defense coming in (43.2).
  
• G'town out-rebounded the Bruins 44.4% vs. 35.7% on the offensive glass. Note, however, that Belmont rebounded above their average (34.5).
  
• Jessie Sapp!! He had 1.56 PPWS, and broke out of his shooting slump (2-27 3 pt. in his last 7 games before today) in a big way.
• Game pace was 61 possessions, right where I expected (toots own horn).
  
• The bench got 62 minutes, shot 7-9 (1-2 3 pt.; 8-10 FTs), 8 assists and 5 turnovers. Special nod for J. Rivers' 7 assists and Vernon Macklin shooting 4-5 FTs (dare I say?).

Georgetown faces Boston College for the right to play in the Sweet 16 on Saturday, 5:45 PM EST.

Edited to add:
Ken Pomeroy ran one of his high-def box scores for the Belmont game (link). Good stuff; hoping this becomes available for all games next year.

Re-edited to add:
I've retroactively added my own HD box score, in place of the standard box. Feel free to compare the two and let me know of any discrepancies.

Analysis: Belmont Team Preview

While checking out other basketball sites, I found a nice preview on Section Six for the NC St. / Drexel NIT game - I'm going to steal his format for a Belmont preview.

Scouting Report / Game Plan
Season Stats
Schedule
Roster
HoyaSaxa Pregame Report

Belmont Offense '06 -'07

				Value					Rank
		Adj. Off. Eff.		103.9					141
		eFG%		54.9					15
		TO%		22.9					261
		OR%		34.5					140
		FTM/FGA		22.2					261

Looking at the Bruins' tempo-free offensive stats is a bit like looking in the mirror for the Hoyas. Belmont does a good job getting value for the shots they take, but doesn't protect the ball as well as they should. The teams shoot very well on 2-pt. (BU = 54.8; GU = 58.4) and slightly above average on 3-pt. (36.7; 36.6). The Bruins have taken 785 3-pt. on the season (~24/game); G'town, not shy about shooting from outside, averages ~17/game. But Belmont has a mediocre offensive efficiency as a whole, because the team isn't able to control their offensive board and struggles to get to the line (likely due to the 3-pt. shot being so integral to their offense).


Probable Starters
Andy Wicke (6'2", 195, #20) - Very good outside shooter (75-164, (0.457) 3-pt.), best assist man on the team. Has started the last 9 games, and has made 38 3-pt. over that stretch. Almost exclusively an outside shooter.

Josh Goodwin(6,3", 205, #4) - The third of the 4 big outside shooters by number taken, but the least accurate (41-128, (0.320) 3-pt.) of the core shooters on the team; he's the one you want to force to beat you from behind the arc. Having said that, he recently went 4-6 and 3-5 from outside in back-to-back games.

Matthew Dotson (6'8", 220, #30) - The last of the main outside threats, despite often being one of the tallest Bruins on the court (Pittsnogle lite?). A decent shooter on the year (43-121, (0.355) 3-pt) who's been on a tear his last five games (15-32 3-pt). Can hit the defensive glass, but not strong on ORs.

Henry Harris (6'1", 170, #40) - I have no idea why he's starting ahead of Hare (see below). A poor shooter (0.339 3-pt), a walking turnover (TO Rate = 31.9), and undersized. He has a nice steal rate (2.3), so I suspect he's in there for his hustle and defense; the team has improved significantly there from last season. May be their version of J. Rivers.

Andrew Preston (6'10", 210, #45) - The starting center, he's very efficient by taking close-in shots and making them (104-166 (0.627) 2-pt.). A capable rebounder, especially on offense (OR% = 13.9 [36th nationally]), he'll have to use his length to make up for a decided lack of beef against the bigger Hoyas.

Two guys who should be starting

Justin Hare (6'2", 195, #24) - MVP of the A-Sun Tournament, 1st team All-Conference, 2nd team Academic All-American. A capable shooter from outside (eFG% = 54.0; 59-155 (0.381) 3-pt.), but willing to go inside to score or get to the line. If Georgetown tries to force Belmont to shoot off the dribble, he will likely be least effected.

Boomer Herndon (6'10", 255, #32) - The Belmont fan who posted on HoyaTalk indicated that his weight might be a touch higher than listed, and that his minutes can be limited due to conditioning. His statistics indicate an exceptional scorer (148-238 (0.622) 2-pt.) and rebounder (DR% = 21.6 [76]; OR% = 14.2 [28]), but also a black-hole on offense (32.4% shots; ARate = 7.8).

Other Guys who will play

Shane Dansby, Keaton Belcher, Will Peeples

Belmont Defense '06 -'07

				Value					Rank
		Adj. Def. Eff.		99.1					119
		eFG%		43.2					4
		TO%		19.2					264
		OR%		33.4					162
		FTM/FGA		36.3					166

The Bruins defense improved this year from lousy (250th by KenPom) to serviceable. Actually, what Belmont has done is improve their 3-pt. defense to 1st overall (28.3% allowed), which had lead to a very low eFG% against. If you could only be good at one thing on defense, forcing your opponent into a poor shooting percentage is it. Credit Coach Byrd for recognizing a team strength.

Unfortunately for Belmont, Georgetown is not a team that depends upon hitting from outside to establish their offense (a la Notre Dame). The Bruins like a game pace in the mid-60s, but expect Georgetown to slow down the game and force their opponent to work hard on defense (especially Mr. Herndon).


And if you're still reading, the NYTimes reports that Dick Enberg and Jay Bilas will call the Winston-Salem games.

Roundup - BET Highlights and more

Spanning the globe to bring you the latest (cause I'm to lazy to contribute anything myself):

• A visiting Belmont fan offered a scouting report in this thread on HoyaTalk.

• A couple of clips of interest on YouTube:

• JTIII cutting down the net at MSG:

• Highlights from the BET finals, set to music:

• As Camille Powell points out in the Sports Bog, Georgetown has become a fashionable Final Four pick.

• Ken Pomeroy has begun his breakdown of the NCAA brackets, looking at the West and Midwest today using his log5 methodology. Looking at his post from last year, log5 did a good job identifying UCLA to come out their bracket, KenPom noted that Florida might make a run, and he, like the rest of America, never saw George Mason coming.

• Deadspin previews the Georgetown-Belmont game with lots of flash, little substance.

• Tempo-Free Suburbia looks at trends in tempo-free stats from the last 3 NCAAs, and also provides stats for this years' field in table form. Looks like eFG% and OR% are key statistics.
  

• Cracked Sidewalks reports that Jerel McNeal is out for the season - if you had Marquette making a run in the tourney, you may want to reconsider
  

Analysis: Belmont Season Performance

If you're not a regular to this site, check these previous posts where I consider performance against the spread, offensive and defensive efficiencies' contributions to performance, and a comparison between the performance of G'town and Villanova as the season progressed.

Today, I'll post Belmont's component and total performance data.

First, here are Belmont's offensive and defensive efficiencies, accounting for the opponent (as always, click any image to enlarge):

Offense



Belmont has shown a fairly significant upswing in their offensive performance since mid-February, with average to exceptional offensive outputs over the last 7 games (saving the best for last, in the conference finals).


Defense



The defense for Belmont had been wildly inconsistent early in the year, but has gelled into a dependable unit since mid-January.


Overall Performance



Since the team defense has stabilized, Belmont's offense has been able to dictate game outcomes over the last few weeks, and this has lead to the impressive 7 game winning streak to close the conference regular season and tournament, with an average margin of victory of 21 points.

More importantly, keeping in mind that Georgetown will be ~18 pt favorite (assuming a pace of 61 possessions), Belmont has shown twice this year that they are capable of playing well enough to win outright against the Hoyas, including the last game they played.