Showing posts with label Alabama. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alabama. Show all posts

Thursday, December 1, 2011

Recap: Georgetown 57, Alabama 55

One great defensive half, one very good offensive half was just enough for the Hoyas to sneak out of Tuscaloosa with the win, 57-55.

I don't have a lot of scintillating analysis to offer tonight -  I find games like this effectively turn my brain to mush. Just a few thought before I go to bed:
  • The story line throughout the first half was how uncertain Alabama was against the Hoyas 2-3 zone.  Georgetown baited Alabama into playing a perimeter offense, and the Tide's cold outside shooting [0/9 3FG] played well into that.  But I thought Coach Grant's halftime adjustments ("Get it inside to Green.") and his team's ability to execute the game plan in the Vespers half was going to end up as the lead for the game recap, until Hollis Thompson came to the rescue.
  • The real story tonight (and one certain to be lost in all the excitement of the Hoyas' big road win) is the offensive game Georgetown played.  Make no mistake, Alabama is a great defensive team [ranked 7th by Pomeroy after tonight's game].  They do it by forcing other teams to miss shots [def. eFG% = 37.4%, 5th nationally], both in close [def. 2FG% = 37.8%, 10th] and from deep [def. 3FG% = 24.5%, 13th].  The Hoyas made their outside shots tonight [7/17 = 41%], but also maded just enough inside with a number of cutting layups [14/31 = 45%].  Scoring more than a point per possession on the Tide's home court is kind of a big deal.
  • In spite of all the pre- and early-season chatter about how deep this Georgetown team is and how much larger the rotation will be as the Hoyas play aggressive defense, tonight's game was a look at what we can expect for the rest of the season.  Nate Lubick played limited minutes thanks to three early fouls, but we saw essentially a 7-man rotation tonight (the starters + Porter and Whittington).  Coach Thompson plays a short bench in big games, and I don't think we'll see much of a change this year after all.
  • Jason Clark is obviously the offensive star for this team, but I think he's starting to spoil me in that I didn't feel that he had a remarkable game, just a solid one.  In fact, he was the best player on the court all night.
  • Hollis Thompson, on the other hand, may have made the step forward in confidence that this team needs to remain dangerous.  And I'm not just talking about that final shot - against Kansas and Memphis, Hollis used about 19% of the team's possessions when he was on the court.  That's typical of a role player.  Tonight, Thompson used more that 25% of available possessions, while still keeping his efficiency high
  • I expressed some doubts this morning about whether Henry Sims is legitimately having a breakout senior year. I always withhold the right to change my mind, and tonight's game is a start.  Would have loved to see Sims finish his reverse drive to the hoop with just under a minute left that would have gone a long way to lower my blood pressure, but otherwise little to complain about tonight.
  • I'm guessing the cognoscenti will be in full lather tonight about cutting Lubick's playing time, especially after his silly off-the-head turnover in the second half. Stats don't lie, and the fact is that Lubick actually didn't have a bad game - he struggled on the defensive end, but was better on offense that either Starks or Porter. With little indication of help coming from the bench at the 4/5 positions, I think Lubick will continue to get time to work through his issues on the court.

Let's run the numbers:

TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Visitor                         Home      
.            Georgetown                      Alabama         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            25        30        55

Points          23        34        57          16        39        55   

Effic.         90.9     113.2     103.3        63.2     129.9      99.7  
 
eFG%           43.5      58.0      51.0        31.6      60.4      47.7  
TO%            23.7      16.7      19.9        23.7      10.0      16.3  
OR%            37.5      15.4      27.6        21.4      28.6      25.0  
FTA/FGA        21.7      20.0      20.8        31.6      54.2      44.2  
 
Assist Rate    66.7      58.3      61.9        66.7      46.2      52.6  
Block Rate     10.0       5.9       7.4        17.6       0.0       9.7  
Steal Rate      7.9      10.0       9.1         7.9      10.0       9.1  
 
2FG%           41.2      50.0      45.2        60.0      58.8      59.3  
3FG%           33.3      45.5      41.2         0.0      42.9      18.8  
FT%            60.0     100.0      80.0        66.7      76.9      73.7 

more stats after the jump

Saturday, December 8, 2007

'Bama highlights, and Hoya slow starts

I finally got around to putting together some highlights from the Alabama game (link). Enjoy.


I also noticed a couple of threads on HoyaTalk discussing KenPom's schedule prediction page and game plan page for Georgetown, and so I'll take this opportunity to make a few of points:
  • Sample size! The season is only 6 games in, so worrying that Pomeroy projects an 11-7 record in the Big East is a bit premature. His predictions are updated almost every night, based upon games played that day, and expect a lot of movement through January before the predictions stabilize.
  • Schedule strength! Frankly, outside of the game at Memphis, this year's OOC for the Hoyas is going to be much weaker than last year. In fact, Memphis may be the only NCAA tournament team Georgetown will play before the BE schedule kicks in; last season, the Hoyas played 5 NCAA-bound teams by December 9th. Of course, Georgetown was 6-3 at that point last year, while they sit 6-0 so far this season.
  • As of this writing, Georgetown is ranked 80th in RPI and 41st by Pomeroy's ratings, which is causing a bit of consternation to some on Hoyatalk. While certainly no guarantee of future success, last year's slow start offers some solace that the Hoyas will improve upon those ranks as the season progresses. But, can we compare the two starts quantitatively? Sure, so long as you recognize a couple of caveats:
    • Sample size! I know, I already said that, but remember that analysis for this season is a bit premature.
    • Context! I've got numbers for last season, but they are weighted by how the teams finished the season. Using the full season data for just early season games may be a bit misleading, especially if a team lost or got back an important player after playing Georgetown.
So how do you compare the two starts? As I discussed several times last year, you can simply compare the predicted score to the actual score for each game to determine performance. One way to do this is to use the Vegas point spread for each game, versus the final score. I'd think this would work very well, but I don't actually keep track of the Vegas line, so I'll use KenPom's data instead. Here, you use each team's offensive and defensive efficiencies, adjusted for competition, to determine expected point totals for each team.

Here are the expected point spreads and actual outcomes for last season and this season, through Dec 8th:


2006-7 Season


Final Rank
Site Predict.
Margin


Result
GU Opp
Diff. from
predict.
11-Nov-06 Hartford 253
H 34
W
69 59
-24
15-Nov-06 Vanderbilt 35
A 5
W
86 70
11
19-Nov-06 Old Dominion 73
H 16
L
62 75
-29
22-Nov-06 Fairfield 198
A 21
W
73 60
-8
27-Nov-06 Ball St. 195
H 27
W
69 54
-12
29-Nov-06 Oregon 18
H 10
L
50 57
-17
2-Dec-06 Duke 11
A 0
L
52 61
-9
5-Dec-06 James Madison 263
H 34
W
89 53
2


2007-8 Season


Current Rank
Site Predict.
Margin

Result GU Opp
Diff. from
predict.
10-Nov-07 William & Mary 248
H 26
W 68 53
-11
15-Nov-07 Michigan 129
H 15
W 74 52
7
21-Nov-07 Ball St. 191
A 12
W 57 48
-3
28-Nov-07 Old Dominion 100
A 5
W 66 48
13
1-Dec-07 Fairfield 219
H 19
W 61 49
-7
5-Dec-07 Alabama 138
A 9
W 70 60
1


In Georgetown's first 8 games last season, the team played up to or above expectations only twice (and the James Madison game was essentially a wash). The team had two horrible games: ODU, as everyone knows, but also the season opener against Hartford.

Now keeping in mind that this season's number will change as we learn more about all the teams, Georgetown's worst game is the season opener against William & Mary. The ODU and Michigan games both ended up well above the spread.

In essence, while the season is young and there's a lot of basketball yet to be played, there's no reason to think that the Hoyas' slow start is any different than last year.

Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Analysis: Georgetown 70, Alabama 60

I don't have time for much of a re-cap, mostly just here to post the four factor box score. I had a devil of a time finding 1st half / 2nd half stats (rather than just full game stats), but I think I've got good numbers for most of the underlying data per half (but no assists, blocks, steals or fouls yet). Edited to add - HD Box now appended.

Let's run the numbers:


Offense
Defense

1st Half 2nd Half Total
1st Half 2nd Half Total
Pace 33 31 64











Eff. 99.8 120.7 109.9
105.9 81.6 94.2








eFG% 54.2% 51.9% 53.0%
45.7% 41.7% 44.1%
TO% 27.2% 19.6% 23.5%
9.1% 16.3% 12.6%
OR% 35.7% 50.0% 44.1%
31.8% 16.7% 25.0%
FTA/FGA



14.3% 41.7% 25.4%
FTM/FGA 29.2% 38.5% 34.0%











Assist Rate - - 59.1%
- - 50.0%
Block Rate - - 11.1%
- - 11.4%
Steal Rate - - 12.6%
- - 6.3%


  Georgetown vs Alabama  
12/5/07 6:05 p.m. at Birmingham, Ala. (BJCC)
Final score: Georgetown 70, Alabama 60

Georgetown Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF
Summers, DaJuan 29:56 + 7 18/53 3 -4 3 -7 3 -4 11/42 0 /11 0 /51 2 /51 0 /27 3 /30 6 /32 3
Ewing, Patrick 26:43 + 11 5 /47 1 -2 1 -2 0 -3 4 /35 4 /13 1 /45 4 /45 0 /22 0 /25 3 /25 2
Hibbert, Roy 33:00 + 8 14/59 3 -6 0 -0 8 -12 6 /43 1 /15 0 /55 1 /55 4 /27 4 /31 5 /34 1
Wallace, Jonathan 22:14 + 14 11/43 2 -4 1 -5 4 -4 9 /30 2 /10 0 /40 4 /41 0 /22 3 /20 3 /27 1
Sapp, Jessie 26:47 + 8 12/48 2 -6 2 -6 2 -4 12/35 3 /11 2 /47 2 /46 0 /26 3 /25 5 /31 2
Macklin, Vernon 07:00 + 2 2 /11 1 -2 0 -0 0 -0 2 /7 0 /3 1 /10 0 /10 0 /8 1 /3 1 /6 1
Wright, Chris 15:28 - 2 3 /23 0 -2 1 -1 0 -1 3 /19 0 /7 0 /21 1 /22 0 /9 0 /14 2 /12 1
Rivers, Jeremiah 19:13 - 1 3 /30 0 -0 1 -1 0 -0 1 /19 1 /8 0 /27 0 /26 0 /15 0 /12 1 /13 2
Freeman, Austin 19:39 + 3 2 /36 1 -1 0 -1 0 -0 2 /20 2 /10 0 /29 2 /29 0 /19 0 /10 3 /20 1
TOTALS 40:00 70 13-27 9 -23 17-28 50 13/22 4 /65 16/65 4 /35 15/34 30/40 14
0.481 0.391 0.607 0.591 0.062 0.246 0.114 0.441 0.750

Alabama Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF
Riley, Mykal 36:37 - 13 15/53 1 -5 4 -7 1 -3 12/53 0 /15 1 /60 1 /60 0 /25 1 /36 4 /31 2
Jemison, Demetrius 18:03 + 3 4 /34 2 -3 0 -0 0 -0 3 /30 2 /11 1 /30 1 /32 0 /9 2 /17 2 /13 3
Hendrix, Richard 29:59 - 7 17/47 7 -12 0 -1 3 -3 13/47 0 /10 0 /51 1 /52 1 /21 4 /33 5 /27 3
Pickett, Rico 16:07 - 1 3 /28 0 -4 1 -4 0 -0 8 /32 2 /9 3 /27 1 /29 0 /8 0 /23 0 /10 0
Gee, Alonzo 23:53 - 2 7 /38 2 -5 0 -1 3 -4 6 /35 3 /13 1 /41 1 /41 0 /18 1 /20 2 /20 1
Torrance, Mikhail 24:54 - 9 7 /34 2 -5 1 -4 0 -1 9 /30 4 /10 1 /39 2 /39 0 /20 0 /19 1 /25 2
Tubbs, Justin 25:36 - 11 6 /31 0 -0 2 -7 0 -0 7 /35 0 /8 0 /40 2 /37 0 /16 0 /28 0 /24 4
Hillman, Senario 02:18 - 1 0 /6 0 -1 0 -0 0 -0 1 /3 0 /2 0 /4 0 /4 0 /2 0 /1 0 /0 0
Coleman, Yamene 20:12 - 11 1 /23 0 -0 0 -0 1 -4 0 /26 0 /7 1 /30 0 /27 2 /15 2 /22 4 /19 3
Knox, Justin 02:21 + 2 0 /6 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0 0 /4 0 /3 0 /3 0 /4 0 /1 0 /1 0 /1 3
TOTALS 40:00 60 14-35 8 -24 8 -15 59 11/22 8 /65 9 /65 3 /27 10/40 19/34 21
0.400 0.333 0.533 0.500 0.123 0.138 0.111 0.250 0.559

Efficiency: Georgetown 1.077, Alabama 0.923
eFG%: Georgetown 0.530, Alabama 0.441
Substitutions: Georgetown 31, Alabama 31

2-pt Shot Selection:
Dunks: Georgetown 2-2, Alabama 1-1
Layups/Tips: Georgetown 10-20, Alabama 8-18
Jumpers: Georgetown 1-5, Alabama 5-16


Credit Alabama with holding on to the ball, especially in the 1st half. They entered the game with a 17.4% TO Rate (ranked: 21/341) and only improved upon it tonight. This, more than rebounding, was what enabled the Crimson Tide to lead at the half (35-33).

What seemed like another rebounding beat-down by the opposition (and it may been early in the 1st half) turned out just the opposite. Georgetown's control of the glass at both ends of the court in the 2nd half really was the difference in the game.

Someone in HoyaChat said that Georgetown is a 2nd half team - they certainly were tonight.

P.S. - Sorry, I'm not posting highlights tonight; hopefully, I'll have time this weekend. I've attached ESPN's video highlights below, for now. I've also got a recap of Notre Dame vs. KSU at the Jimmy V Classic in my inbox, hope to have that up tomorrow.