What's a good early season worth?

If you've been reading the Hoya interwebs since the Memphis game, you may have come across a note that Georgetown has wrapped up the pre-Big East part of the schedule with a 10-1 record, and this is the fifth consecutive season that the Hoyas have started the season 10-1.

Of course, not all 10-1 records are the same.  As I write, Georgetown sits 12th in both polls, and 14th in Ken Pomeroy's ratings.  Meanwhile, the Seton Hall Pirates have run off an 11-1 record so far, but can get not a whiff from either poll and Ken rates them 55th overall.  While the teams have played comparably difficult schedules so far [G'town = 252nd, SHU = 274th], the Hoyas rate high by beating the bad teams by a lot, and for beating (or losing to) some better teams - Georgetown's only loss was to Kansas, while the Hall fell to Northwestern.

But that's not why I'm writing.

What I am actually curious about, is whether early season performance is a useful predictor of what comes later in the year.

The simple answer is "Yes."

I want to be careful to spell out a few definitions before I proceed.

• The data set shown in the figure above is for all Big East teams for the seasons 2006 to 2011 (the six seasons played since the expansion with Conference USA teams)
• Early season refers to games in November and December - I'm not discriminating for whether a game is conference or non-conference here.  Early season is represented on the x-axis
• Later games means just that:  all games played after Dec. 31st. More pointedly, I'm not limiting the discussion to merely how a team performs in a single-elimination tournament (conf. or NCAA).  Late season is represented on the y-axis.
• I'm not going to be using win-loss record but rather Ken Pomeroy's stats [adjusted efficiencies] to evaluate how a team performs.  The stat of interest here I'll call "net adjusted efficiency" which is simply adj. offensive efficiency [aOE] minus adj. defensive efficiency [aDE].  You can find aOE and aDE on Ken's ratings page (free to all).  I'm happy to acknowledge that his "Pythagorean" rating is probably a bit more accurate, but it's also a lot more complicated.

The scatter plot is fairly impressive - using Ken's stats, there is a clear linear trend between how well a team plays early and how well they will play later.

Lots of fancy-pants analysis, what it means for Georgetown, and predicted Big East wins for all teams after the jump.

In case you missed it

We participated in a Big East bloggers round table along with a select group of just about every other Big East blogger.

xkcd.com (h/t fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com)

Pico Dulce over at Rumble in the Garden was kind enough to herd us cats into providing answers to five burning questions during the off season:

1.  Which player's loss will be felt the most by the team?
Our answer:  Chris Wright

2.  Which returning player needs to step their game up?
Our answer:  Henry Sims

3.  Which returning/ incoming player will surprise (positively)?
Our answer:  Jabril Trawick

4.  Who are you most excited to see on campus?
Our answer:  Otto Porter

5.  Who is the future of the program, whether on campus, verbally committed, or not-yet-committed?
Our answer:  It's complicated


I'm proud to say that Alan and I provided the most verbose answers, if nothing else.

Now if we'd only provide some actual content here . . .

BET log5 predictions, after quarterfinals

Here's the updated log5 analysis of the BET tourney, after the quarterfinal round is in the books.

We finally see our first major movement in the odds, as UConn knocked out clear favorite Pitt. The Huskies are unsurprisingly the biggest beneficiaries of their own good play, as their chances of winning the Big East Tournament are now roughly 7.5 times what they were as of Tuesday morning. Note, though, that the log5 calculations don't take into account the fatigue factor of playing four games in as many days, so Syracuse is probably even more of a favorite than the current odds show them to be.

The second semifinal should be a very competitive game between two double-bye teams that cruised by large margins in their opening game. The only regular season meeting between the Cardinals and Irish went to overtime, and I (and ESPN) am hoping for another good game in the rematch.

Seed  Team     2nd Rnd   Quarters   Semis   Finals    Champ      Orig
9     UConn      100       100       100     39.2     15.5        2.1
16    DePaul     out       out       out      out      out        0.00002
8     G'town      -        out       out      out      out        2.4
1     Pitt        -         -        out      out      out       31.7

12    SHU        out       out       out      out      out        0.3
13    Rutgers    100       out       out      out      out       0.03
5     St.J's      -        100       out      out      out        2.7
4     Cuse        -         -        100     60.8     30.7       19.8

10    Nova       out       out       out      out      out        2.3
15    USF        100       out       out      out      out        0.001
7     Cinci       -        100       out      out      out        6.0
2     N.Dame      -         -        100     53.3     29.5       12.6

11    Marq       100       100       out      out      out        1.4
14    Provy      out       out       out      out      out        0.01
6     WVU         -        out       out      out      out        5.2
3     L'ville     -         -        100     46.7     24.4       13.5

Editor's note: These are the percentage probabilities a team will make it to that round, based on KenPom ratings.
"100" means that team did advance to the round, a "-" means the team had a bye to that round.

BET log5 predictions, after Round 2

Here's the updated log5 analysis of the BET tourney, after the 2nd round is in the books.

Cincinnati is the biggest beneficiary of the action thus far, with their odds up 4.1%. Still, the top four seeds are the four likeliest to win, and their odds are mostly unchanged. Note that this calculation, unlike the one done by Basketball Prospectus does not give St. John's any home court advantage; perhaps it should.

Seed  Team     2nd Rnd   Quarters   Semis   Finals    Champ      Orig
9     UConn      100       100      26.5     10.6      4.5        2.1
16    DePaul     out       out       out      out      out        0.00002
8     G'town      -        out       out      out      out        2.4
1     Pitt        -         -       73.5     47.3     31.7       31.7

12    SHU        out       out       out      out      out        0.3
13    Rutgers    100       out       out      out      out       0.03
5     St.J's      -        100      32.4     10.0      4.1        2.7
4     Cuse        -         -       67.6     32.1     18.9       19.8

10    Nova       out       out       out      out      out        2.3
15    USF        100       out       out      out      out        0.001
7     Cinci       -        100      47.6     24.8     10.1        6.0
2     N.Dame      -         -       52.4     28.6     12.3       12.6

11    Marq       100       100      36.4     13.8      4.3        1.4
14    Provy      out       out       out      out      out        0.01
6     WVU         -        out       out      out      out        5.2
3     L'ville     -         -       63.6     32.8     14.3       13.5

Editor's note: These are the percentage probabilities a team will make it to that round, based on KenPom ratings through Tuesday's games (ratings through Wednesday were unavailable at of 9:30 AM CT).
"100" means that team did advance to the round, a "-" means the team had a bye to that round.

BET log5 predictions, after quarterfinals

Here's the updated log5 analysis of the BET tourney, using the updated KenPom.com ratings, now that the quarterfinals are in the books.

With three of the four double bye teams losing, lots of change in the odds since yesterday. The biggest jump since the initial log5 prediction (the "Orig" column) unsurprisingly belongs to the Hoyas, who pulled off the biggest upset by knocking off the conference's best team and also saw the second best team on their half of the bracket eliminated.  West Virginia becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the 'chip.

Seed  Team     2nd Rnd   Quarters   Semis   Finals    Champ      Orig
9     USF        100       out       out      out      out        0.1
16    DePaul     out       out       out      out      out        0.0003
8     G'town      -        100       100     55.5     27.8        6.8
1     Cuse        -         -        out      out      out       28.9

12    UConn      out       out       out      out      out        0.8
13    St.J's     100       out       out      out      out        0.06
5     Marq        -        100       100     44.5     19.9        5.2
4     Nova        -         -        out      out      out       12.8

10    SHU        100       out       out      out      out        0.6
15    Provy      out       out       out      out      out        0.06
7     N.Dame      -        100       100     28.4     10.3        2.2
2     Pitt        -         -        out      out      out        9.8

11    Cinci      100       100       out      out      out        0.2
14    Rutgers    out       out       out      out      out        0.0009
6     L'ville     -        out       out      out      out        3.5
3     WVU         -         -        100     71.6     42.0       29.1

Editor's note: These are the percentage probabilities a team will make it to that round, based on KenPom ratings.
"100" means that team did advance to the round, a "-" means the team had a bye to that round.

BET log5 predictions, after Round 2

Here's the updated log5 analysis of the BET tourney, using the updated KenPom.com ratings, after the 2nd round is in the books.

West Virginia is the big beneficiary of the action thus far, namely Cincinnati's upset of Louisville. Since the initial log5 prediction (the "Orig" column), their odds of a title have gone up nearly 3%, even more than the Hoyas', despite not playing.

Seed  Team     2nd Rnd   Quarters   Semis   Finals    Champ      Orig
9     USF        100       out       out      out      out        0.1
16    DePaul     out       out       out      out      out        0.0003
8     G'town      -        100      36.8     19.2      9.5        6.8
1     Cuse        -         -       63.2     41.2     25.6       28.9

12    UConn      out       out       out      out      out        0.8
13    St.J's     100       out       out      out      out        0.06
5     Marq        -        100      45.2     16.8      7.6        5.2
4     Nova        -         -       54.8     22.9     11.4       12.8

10    SHU        100       out       out      out      out        0.6
15    Provy      out       out       out      out      out        0.06
7     N.Dame      -        100      41.1     13.3      4.0        2.2
2     Pitt        -         -       58.9     23.5      9.0        9.8

11    Cinci      100       100      15.6      4.7      0.9        0.2
14    Rutgers    out       out       out      out      out        0.0009
6     L'ville     -        out       out      out      out        3.5
3     WVU         -         -       84.4     58.6     32.0       29.1

Editor's note: These are the percentage probabilities a team will make it to that round, based on KenPom ratings.
"100" means that team did advance to the round, a "-" means the team had a bye to that round.

NIT-log5 and Adjusted Efficiency Predictions

Following up on yesterday's teaser post, it's time to post preview odds for the 2009 NIT.

Contrary to my hopes, I haven't been able to expand my bracket to account for championship chances, so you're just getting finals chances for every team. If the Hoyas win Wednesday and after the first round is over, I'll post complete odds for the rest of the NIT.

Because the NIT is played at campus sites, team's chances of making it to NYC for the semifinals are greatly affected by seeding. First, here's what team's chances would look like if this were the NCAA tournament and home court advantage was not taken into account, via the log5 method:

Seed  Team           2nd Round Quarters New York  Finals
1     Auburn           79.93%   43.19%   19.60%    8.89%
8     UT-Martin        20.07%    4.58%    0.82%    0.14%
4     Tulsa            53.29%   28.60%   12.30%    5.28%
5     Northwestern     46.71%   23.63%    9.43%    3.75%
3     Baylor           37.57%   22.07%   12.20%    5.76%
6     Georgetown       62.43%   43.78%   29.38%   17.48%
2     Virginia Tech    63.87%   24.63%   12.68%    5.50%
7     Duquesne         36.13%    9.52%    3.59%    1.10%

1     San Diego St     81.33%   47.34%   27.67%   15.94%
8     Weber St         18.67%    4.57%    1.14%    0.28%
4     Kansas St        59.62%   30.84%   16.71%    8.92%
5     Illinois St      40.38%   17.25%    7.71%    3.39%
3     South Carolina   52.41%   21.14%    8.65%    3.76%
6     Davidson         47.59%   18.12%    7.01%    2.88%
2     St Mary's        36.30%   18.92%    7.92%    3.51%
7     Washington St    63.70%   41.81%   23.19%   13.42%

Seed  Team           2nd Round Quarters New York  Finals
1     Creighton        78.07%   35.31%   14.01%    6.46%
8     Bowling Green    21.93%    4.16%    0.65%    0.13%
4     Kentucky         58.72%   37.48%   17.95%    9.75%
5     UNLV             41.28%   23.05%    9.06%    4.15%
3     New Mexico       63.69%   32.50%   19.72%   11.58%
6     Nebraska         36.31%   13.54%    6.38%    2.88%
2     Notre Dame       52.37%   28.83%   17.52%   10.30%
7     UAB              47.63%   25.13%   14.71%    8.31%

1     Florida          81.12%   43.34%   27.70%   14.55%
8     Jacksonville     18.88%    4.10%    1.20%    0.25%
4     Miami            66.70%   38.62%   25.45%   13.92%
5     Providence       33.30%   13.94%    6.86%    2.60%
3     Niagara          52.42%   29.91%   12.59%    5.29%
6     Rhode Island     47.58%   26.02%   10.36%    4.12%
2     Penn State       58.05%   27.52%   10.62%    4.09%
7     George Mason     41.95%   16.55%    5.21%    1.63%

Alas and alack, playing at on-campus sites significantly decreases the odds for teams that will likely end up playing a lot on the road.

Here's what it looks like with home field advantage taken into account, including Miami playing at Providence and assuming the higher (better) seed hosts in all second and third round games:

Seed  Team           2nd Round Quarters New York  Finals
1     Auburn           88.76%   61.58%   38.76%   17.28%
8     UT-Martin        11.24%    1.46%    0.16%    0.03%
4     Tulsa            68.66%   25.89%   10.07%    4.21%
5     Northwestern     31.34%   11.08%    4.00%    1.55%
3     Baylor           52.95%   25.35%   12.50%    5.77%
6     Georgetown       47.05%   27.83%   13.97%    8.23%
2     Virginia Tech    76.85%   42.87%   19.63%    8.29%
7     Duquesne         23.15%    3.95%    0.91%    0.27%

1     San Diego St     89.70%   64.40%   48.36%   28.63%
8     Weber St         10.30%    1.15%    0.18%    0.04%
4     Kansas St        74.11%   27.00%   14.09%    7.73%
5     Illinois St      25.89%    7.45%    3.20%    1.44%
3     South Carolina   68.19%   28.72%   10.08%    4.48%
6     Davidson         31.81%   12.68%    2.88%    1.21%
2     Saint Mary's     52.28%   35.16%   12.60%    5.72%
7     Washington St    47.72%   23.44%    8.61%    5.11%

Seed  Team           2nd Round Quarters New York  Finals
1     Creighton        87.58%   52.47%   28.24%   12.67%
8     Bowling Green    12.42%    1.23%    0.10%    0.02%
4     Kentucky         73.56%   35.55%   13.21%    7.03%
5     UNLV             26.44%   10.75%    3.23%    1.44%
3     New Mexico       77.71%   35.44%   21.01%   12.18%
6     Nebraska         22.29%    7.35%    2.28%    1.00%
2     Notre Dame       67.69%   45.92%   27.17%   15.71%
7     UAB              32.31%   11.29%    4.76%    2.64%

1     Florida          89.22%   62.56%   47.87%   25.07%
8     Jacksonville     10.78%    1.39%    0.24%    0.05%
4     Miami            51.97%   22.24%   12.48%    6.82%
5     Providence       48.03%   13.81%    5.51%    2.06%
3     Niagara          67.38%   32.57%   12.53%    5.22%
6     Rhode Island     32.62%   15.16%    3.98%    1.57%
2     Penn State       72.78%   45.52%   16.10%    6.13%
7     George Mason     27.22%    6.75%    1.30%    0.40%

Methodological note: This latter calculation is made using the Pythagorean expectation formula, with an exponent of 11.739. That seemed to produce results very similar to log5, so it's more of an apples-to-apples comparison.


The great advantages of a home team are pretty clear here, as all of the higher seeds look much better. Creighton's chances of making it to New York essentially double, and they're not alone.

In fact, game location probably matters more in the NIT than it does in the NCAA, simply because the teams, except for the automatic qualifying dreck at the bottom of the bracket, are fairly evenly matched in quality.


Finally - not that you need a reminder - efficiency ratings are not destiny.

NIT-Hoya Odds Report

I'm working on a full Auburn bracket and NIT report (which unfortunately won't appear until tomorrow evening), but in the interim log5 gives the Hoyas a 62.43% chance of beating Baylor, a 43.78% chance of making it to the quarterfinals, and a 29.38% chance of making it to New York City for the semifinals.

Adjusted for venue, though, the Hoyas have only a 47.11% chance of making it to the second round. See this page for more information on that calculation-I'm using that 11.5 exponent Ken lists there, but it looks like he's using something between 11.75 and 11.8 for his ratings this year based on the quick log5 check I did.

I'll have full reports on the complete NIT log5 and home-adjusted efficiency chances tomorrow. In the meantime, check out the results of a Monte Carlo simulation using both KenPom's efficiency ratings and Sagarin's predictor (best viewed in IE, so install IE tab if necessary). Thanks to GoldHoya for passing this along.

BET log5 predictions, after quarterfinals

From Tom, via HoyaTalk.

Here's the updated log5 analysis of the BET tourney, using the updated KenPom.com ratings, after the 3rd round.

Lots of movement yesterday, as Louisville and West Virginia were the big winners in terms of best odds of winning the championship.

However, Tom's predictions for yesterday didn't include that Cuse/UConn would play a 6-OT game, so I'm not sure if we can trust anything else he says.

Seed  Team     2nd Rnd   Quarters   Semis   Finals    Champ
9     Cinci      out       out       out      out      out
16    DePaul    100.0%     out       out      out      out
8     Provy       -       100.0%     out      out      out
1     L'ville     -         -      100.0%   63.77%   35.35%

12    G'town     out       out       out      out      out
13    St.J's    100.0%     out       out      out      out
5     Marq        -       100.0%     out      out      out
4     Nova        -         -      100.0%   36.23%   15.06%

10    N.Dame    100.0%     out       out      out      out
15    Rutgers    out       out       out      out      out
7     WVU         -       100.0%   100.0%   60.28%   32.34%
2     Pitt        -         -        out      out      out

11    SHU       100.0%     out       out      out      out
14    USF        out       out       out      out      out
6     Cuse        -       100.0%   100.0%   39.72%   17.26%
3     UConn       -         -        out      out      out 

Editor's note: These percentages are the probability a team will make it to that round, based on KenPom ratings.

BET log5 predictions, after Round 2

From Tom, via HoyaTalk:

Here's the updated log5 analysis of the BET tourney, using the updated KenPom.com ratings, after the 2nd round.

The seeds holding on Day 2 worsened the odds for all the double-bye teams, but not by that much. Biggest beneficiary so far is Marquette, whose odds have increased about 4%.

Seed  Team     2nd Rnd   Quarters   Semis   Finals    Champ
9     Cinci      out       out       out      out      out
16    DePaul    100.0%     out       out      out      out
8     Provy       -       100.0%   13.47%    2.86%    0.36%
1     L'ville     -         -      86.53%   54.86%   25.79%

12    G'town     out       out      out       out      out
13    St.J's    100.0%     out      out       out      out
5     Marq        -       100.0%   48.04%   19.88%    6.60%
4     Nova        -         -      51.96%   22.40%    7.82%

10    N.Dame    100.0%      out      out      out      out
15    Rutgers    out        out      out      out      out
7     WVU         -       100.0%   40.32%   18.62%   10.04%
2     Pitt        -         -      59.68%   33.21%   20.97%

11    SHU       100.0%      out      out      out      out
14    USF        out        out      out      out      out
6     Cuse        -       100.0%   31.66%   11.22%    6.13%
3     UConn       -         -      68.34%   36.95%   23.38%

Editor's note: These percentages are the probability a team will make it to that round, based on KenPom ratings.

BET log5 Prediction, after Round 1

From Tom, via HoyaTalk:

Here's the updated log5 analysis of the BET tourney, using the updated KenPom.com ratings, after the 1st round:

Seed  Team     2nd Rnd   Quarters   Semis   Finals    Champ
9     Cinci      out       out       out      out      out
16    DePaul    100.0%    15.20%    0.42%    0.02%    0.00%
8     Provy       -       84.80%   11.61%    2.76%    0.35%
1     L'ville     -         -      87.97%   57.69%   27.02%

12    G'town     out       out      out       out      out
13    St.J's    100.0%    16.12%    2.07%    0.24%    0.02%
5     Marq        -       83.88%   36.42%   13.29%    3.85%
4     Nova        -         -      61.51%   26.00%    8.98%

10    N.Dame    100.0%    27.57%    5.49%    1.35%    0.42%
15    Rutgers    out        out      out      out      out
7     WVU         -       72.43%   28.63%   12.85%    6.82%
2     Pitt        -         -      65.88%   36.25%   22.85%

11    SHU       100.0%    22.04%    2.45%    0.34%    0.07%
14    USF        out        out      out      out      out
6     Cuse        -       77.96%   23.89%    8.54%    4.78%
3     UConn       -         -      73.66%   40.67%   25.85%

Editor's note: These percentages are the probability a team will make it to that round, based on KenPom ratings.

BET log5 Prediction

Here's the log5 analysis of the BET tourney, using the updated KenPom.com ratings:

Seed  Team     2nd Rnd   Quarters   Semis   Finals    Champ
9     Cinci     85.45%    40.54%    5.11%    1.11%    0.13%
16    DePaul    14.55%     1.94%    0.05%    0.00%    0.00%
8     Provy       -       57.52%    7.93%    1.86%    0.24%
1     L'ville     -         -      86.91%   56.92%   26.71%

12    G'town    84.68%    41.91%   17.93%    6.53%    1.86%
13    St.J's    15.32%     2.31%    0.28%    0.03%    0.00%
5     Marq        -       55.79%   24.15%    8.90%    2.58%
4     Nova        -         -      57.64%   24.64%    8.54%

10    N.Dame    85.68%    23.23%    4.57%    1.11%    0.34%
15    Rutgers   14.32%     0.84%    0.03%    0.00%    0.00%
7     WVU         -       75.93%   30.15%   13.59%    7.27%
2     Pitt        -         -      65.24%   35.93%   22.72%

11    SHU       71.18%    14.53%    1.49%    0.19%    0.03%
14    USF       28.82%     2.71%    0.12%    0.01%    0.00%
6     Cuse        -       82.76%   25.47%    9.08%    5.05%
3     UConn       -         -      72.92%   40.10%   25.53%

Editor's note: These percentages are the probability a team will make it to that round, based on KenPom ratings.

Make of these what you will. As I said last year, efficiency ratings are not destiny.

If you want a sign of optimism, out of all the teams playing on Tuesday, the Hoyas have by far the best chance of making a deep run.

Bracket Prediction

Here's the log5 analysis of the Midwest Bracket, using the updated KenPom ratings:

         Opening Round Sweet 16  Elite 8  Final 4
Kansas         98.55%   93.61%   82.05%   61.52%
Portland State  1.45%    0.32%    0.04%    0.00%
UNLV           56.62%    3.76%    1.26%    0.21%
Kent State     43.38%    2.32%    0.66%    0.11%
  
Clemson        77.09%   60.96%   12.60%    4.93%
Villanova      22.91%   12.40%    1.09%    0.47%
Vanderbilt     77.03%   23.78%    2.21%    0.40%
Siena          22.97%    2.86%    0.10%    0.01%
  
USC            43.59%   11.23%    4.64%    0.99%
Kansas State   56.41%   17.24%    8.17%    1.88%
Wisconsin      96.04%   71.11%   48.94%   19.62%
CSU-Fullerton   3.96%    0.42%    0.04%    0.00%
  
Gonzaga        55.84%   17.38%    4.41%    0.72%
Davidson       44.16%   11.77%    2.52%    0.35%
Georgetown     96.35%   70.51%   31.26%    9.25%
UMBC            3.65%    0.34%    0.07%    0.00%

Make of these what you will. Naturally, efficiency ratings are not destiny. If they were, Georgetown wouldn't have been to the Final Four last year. Kansas, though, is #1 overall by a much bigger margin than UNC was last year.
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UPDATE (3/19/08 0117 CT): A brief lesson on the importance of extra numbers. The link above goes to KenPom's stats page, which has team ratings to three decimal points. The ratings page has an extra significant digit. The most prominent impact on the bracket is on Kansas, which is .9915, rounded up to .992. Using the extra significant digit decreases their Final 4 chances from 63.26% to 61.52%. The Hoyas, at .9704, increase from 8.89% to 9.25%. Wisconsin picks up most of the rest of the differential with the Jayhawks, increasing from 18.53% to 19.62%. Their chance of winning v UMBC also increases from 96.30% to 96.35%. Alas, the chance of making the Elite 8 actually falls, from 31.36% to 31.26%, because Wisconsin's rating also increases, from .982 to .9825.