BET log5 predictions, after quarterfinals

Here's the updated log5 analysis of the BET tourney, after the quarterfinal round is in the books.

We finally see our first major movement in the odds, as UConn knocked out clear favorite Pitt. The Huskies are unsurprisingly the biggest beneficiaries of their own good play, as their chances of winning the Big East Tournament are now roughly 7.5 times what they were as of Tuesday morning. Note, though, that the log5 calculations don't take into account the fatigue factor of playing four games in as many days, so Syracuse is probably even more of a favorite than the current odds show them to be.

The second semifinal should be a very competitive game between two double-bye teams that cruised by large margins in their opening game. The only regular season meeting between the Cardinals and Irish went to overtime, and I (and ESPN) am hoping for another good game in the rematch.

Seed  Team     2nd Rnd   Quarters   Semis   Finals    Champ      Orig
9     UConn      100       100       100     39.2     15.5        2.1
16    DePaul     out       out       out      out      out        0.00002
8     G'town      -        out       out      out      out        2.4
1     Pitt        -         -        out      out      out       31.7

12    SHU        out       out       out      out      out        0.3
13    Rutgers    100       out       out      out      out       0.03
5     St.J's      -        100       out      out      out        2.7
4     Cuse        -         -        100     60.8     30.7       19.8

10    Nova       out       out       out      out      out        2.3
15    USF        100       out       out      out      out        0.001
7     Cinci       -        100       out      out      out        6.0
2     N.Dame      -         -        100     53.3     29.5       12.6

11    Marq       100       100       out      out      out        1.4
14    Provy      out       out       out      out      out        0.01
6     WVU         -        out       out      out      out        5.2
3     L'ville     -         -        100     46.7     24.4       13.5

Editor's note: These are the percentage probabilities a team will make it to that round, based on KenPom ratings.
"100" means that team did advance to the round, a "-" means the team had a bye to that round.