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| Picture from here. |
At this point, I think there are two ways to look at how the Hoyas are playing at the end of the conference schedule:
- It's not as bad as you think. Georgetown has lost 4 of 5 games, but has only been non-competitive at the end in two of those games - both versus Cincinnati. Both at UConn and versus Syracuse, the games came down to the last few possessions and the opponent did enough to win. Maybe the Bearcats are simply the perfect matchup against the Hoyas this season, and Georgetown isn't winning whether Chris Wright is available or not (they were down 7 in the second half when Wright was hurt in the first game).
- The ship be sinking. Georgetown is playing like a dead man walking right now. Austin Freeman is about the lone credible threat on offense, and everyone knows it and is forcing him to either give up the ball or take a tough shot. Let's face it, Freeman is not Kemba Walker and is never going to create many shots for himself. Meanwhile, Julian Vaughn and Jason Clark, the only upperclassmen capable of covering for the loss of Wright's scoring and leadership, instead have disappeared.
I wish I could tell you definitively that it's scenario #1, but I can't.
I don't think the season is over - with the current personnel, the Hoyas should be able to win at least one game in each of their next two tournaments - but there is certainly some truth to the notion that expectations should be at a season-low.
Georgetown simply isn't making shots, either inside or outside. And without the ability to play lockdown, stifling defense for 40 minutes (or even 20 minutes), the Hoyas just can't win without making those shots.
Let's run the numbers:
TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE . Visitor Home . Georgetown Cincinnati . 1st Half 2nd Half Total 1st Half 2nd Half Total Pace 28 31 59 Points 24 23 47 30 39 69 Effic. 86.1 74.8 80.1 107.7 126.8 117.6 eFG% 37.5 34.0 35.8 47.6 59.5 53.6 TO% 7.2 16.3 11.9 25.1 13.0 18.7 OR% 22.2 21.1 21.6 38.5 25.0 32.0 FTA/FGA 14.3 40.0 26.4 57.1 85.7 71.4 Assist Rate 66.7 25.0 47.1 37.5 70.0 55.6 Block Rate 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 13.3 11.4 Steal Rate 14.4 6.5 10.2 3.6 0.0 1.7 2FG% 30.0 46.7 37.1 40.0 50.0 45.0 3FG% 37.5 10.0 22.2 36.4 45.5 40.9 FT% 75.0 60.0 64.3 83.3 77.8 80.0
Just a few salient points here below the jump:
- Austin Freeman may receive some grief for his 7/23 shooting day. Certainly you'd like to see him shoot better than 1/7 on 3FG. But who is he taking shots from? Nate Lubick and Hollis Thompson had nice shooting games today [6/9 2FG, 2/3 3FG combined], but those are low-usage players not comfortable putting up a lot of shots. The rest of Austin's teammates - mostly Clark and Vaughn - managed 1/10 2FG, 1/8 3FG. Markel Starks failed to take a shot from the floor.
- Until Chris Wright was hurt, the Hoyas had managed to have only one truly poor shooting game [<45% eFG] the entire season (versus Pitt). Georgetown has failed to reach 45% eFG each of the past three games [30%, 43%, 36%].
- In their past 12 conference games, the Bearcats have managed to shoot 44% [=16/36] from behind the arc against the Hoyas and 30% [=55/181] against everyone else.
One final thought about today's game: with just under 9 minutes to go, Hollis Thompson made a 3FG off a pass from Austin Freeman to close the gap to 4 points. I think most coverage will point to the fact that the Hoyas managed to score only 8 points the rest of the way (15 possessions) as Cincinnati blew the doors off the game.
But it wasn't just the offense that collapsed.
Up until that point, the Bearcats had managed 43 points on 43 possessions - that's 1.00 points per possession for the mathematically-challenged - while committing 11 turnovers (nearly one in four possessions played). If you'd have offered me that defensive effort by the Hoyas before the game, I most certainly would have taken it.
The rest of the way, Cincinnati scored 26 points on 15 possessions without a single turnover, including a stretch of eight-straight possessions with at least one points scored. At the end of that eight-possession stretch, the lead had ballooned to 18 points and the game was over.
Not only couldn't Georgetown score, they couldn't get stops either. It's a 100% fatal combination.
INDIVIDUAL NET POINTS STATS Georgetown Off % Pts Def Pts Player Poss Poss O.Rtg Prod Poss D.Rtg Allow Net Pts Thompson, Hollis 52 12.9 131.6 8.9 52 109.5 11.4 -0.5 Vaughn, Julian 22 20.0 23.7 1.0 24 115.4 5.5 -4.3 Lubick, Nate 32 13.5 110.4 4.8 31 113.4 7.0 -1.2 Freeman, Austin 54 45.1 81.2 19.8 54 113.6 12.3 -0.2 Clark, Jason 51 21.5 44.4 4.9 50 105.5 10.5 -6.2 Starks, Markel 23 5.0 29.9 0.3 22 135.2 5.9 -3.4 Sanford, Vee 12 1.9 233.3 0.5 14 105.4 3.0 -1.1 Dougherty, Ryan 3 0.0 - 0.0 3 66.7 0.4 -0.4 Sims, Henry 23 16.7 74.5 2.9 21 88.6 3.7 -0.7 Benimon, Jerrelle 14 3.7 200.0 1.0 14 129.6 3.6 -1.1 Ayegba, Moses 9 22.2 0.0 0.0 10 102.0 2.0 -2.0 TOTALS 59 75.3 44.1 59 111.0 65.5 -21.2 Cincinnati Off % Pts Def Pts Player Poss Poss O.Rtg Prod Poss D.Rtg Allow Net Pts BISHOP, Rashad 40 12.1 42.9 2.1 40 91.5 7.3 -3.8 THOMAS, Ibrahima 26 29.6 70.0 5.4 25 87.5 4.4 -0.2 GATES, Yancy 45 16.5 157.9 11.8 44 75.9 6.7 +5.6 WRIGHT, Cashmere 36 26.7 80.9 7.8 37 75.4 5.6 +1.4 DIXON, Dion 42 26.9 128.3 14.5 41 86.0 7.1 +6.1 TYREE, Eddie 3 33.3 0.0 0.0 3 80.0 0.5 -0.6 JACKSON, Justin 11 8.4 100.0 0.9 10 83.2 1.7 -0.3 EPPENSTEINER, Alex 1 50.0 200.0 1.0 1 200.0 0.4 +0.3 DAVIS, Larry 21 12.2 66.7 1.7 21 79.5 3.3 -1.0 WILKS, Darnell 22 14.7 173.5 5.6 25 55.8 2.8 +3.3 KILPATRICK, Sean 34 16.1 156.1 8.5 34 77.3 5.3 +3.8 McBRIDE, Anthony 2 0.0 - 0.0 2 100.0 0.4 -0.4 McCLAIN, Anthony 9 15.4 258.1 3.6 9 49.0 0.9 +2.8 PARKER, JaQuon 3 0.0 - 0.0 3 80.0 0.5 -0.5 TOTALS 59 112.3 62.8 59 79.2 46.7 +17.8
Stats pages will be updated tomorrow.
HD BOX SCORE
Georgetown vs Cincinnati
03/05/11 2 p.m. at Cincinnati, Ohio (Fifth Third Arena)
Final score: Cincinnati 69, Georgetown 47
Georgetown Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF
Thompson, Hollis 34:24 -16 12/40 3- 5 2- 3 0- 0 8/46 0/10 0/52 0/52 0/15 1/34 3/23 2
Vaughn, Julian 16:21 -18 0/13 0- 4 0- 0 0- 0 4/20 1/ 5 1/24 0/22 2/10 1/16 1/ 8 4
Lubick, Nate 22:19 -11 6/22 3- 4 0- 0 0- 2 4/31 1/ 6 0/31 0/32 0/10 1/23 0/14 4
Freeman, Austin 36:12 -18 21/45 6-16 1- 7 6- 6 23/51 4/ 9 0/54 1/54 0/17 0/35 3/23 2
Clark, Jason 34:42 -18 5/43 0- 2 1- 8 2- 2 10/45 1/14 3/50 2/51 0/18 0/30 2/21 3
Starks, Markel 14:22 -13 0/19 0- 0 0- 0 0- 1 0/18 1/ 6 1/22 1/23 0/ 8 0/13 0/ 9 1
Sanford, Vee 08:55 - 9 0/ 7 0- 2 0- 0 0- 0 2/ 9 0/ 2 0/14 0/12 0/ 7 1/ 9 1/ 6 2
Dougherty, Ryan 01:46 + 0 0/ 2 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0/ 1 0/ 1 0/ 3 0/ 3 0/ 2 0/ 2 0/ 2 0
Sims, Henry 15:45 + 3 3/22 1- 2 0- 0 1- 2 2/24 0/ 7 0/21 2/23 0/ 5 1/15 3/11 1
Benimon, Jerrelle 09:21 - 2 0/16 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0/14 0/ 5 0/14 0/14 0/ 3 1/ 8 1/ 8 1
Ayegba, Moses 05:53 - 8 0/ 6 0- 0 0- 0 0- 1 0/ 6 0/ 3 1/10 1/ 9 0/ 5 0/ 5 2/ 5 0
TOTALS 40:00 47 13-35 4-18 9-14 53 8/17 6/59 7/59 2/20 8/37 17/25 20
. 0.371 0.222 0.643 0.471 0.102 0.119 0.100 0.216 0.680
Cincinnati Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF
BISHOP, Rashad 28:28 +12 0/46 0- 0 0- 3 0- 0 3/29 2/11 0/40 2/40 1/26 1/18 5/26 1
THOMAS, Ibrahima 18:06 + 3 6/24 2- 3 0- 1 2- 2 4/17 0/ 3 0/25 3/26 1/16 1/14 3/14 3
GATES, Yancy 29:01 +19 13/50 0- 4 1- 1 10-10 5/31 1/11 0/44 1/45 1/28 0/19 5/28 2
WRIGHT, Cashmere 24:57 + 8 6/38 2- 3 0- 4 2- 2 7/28 4/ 9 1/37 2/36 0/23 0/17 2/23 1
DIXON, Dion 27:18 + 4 14/39 1- 5 2- 5 6- 8 10/27 3/ 6 0/41 1/42 0/25 1/20 3/24 2
TYREE, Eddie 01:46 + 0 0/ 2 0- 1 0- 0 0- 0 1/ 3 0/ 1 0/ 3 0/ 3 0/ 1 0/ 2 0/ 2 0
JACKSON, Justin 06:58 - 2 1/ 8 0- 0 0- 0 1- 2 0/ 9 0/ 3 0/10 0/11 0/ 9 0/ 6 1/ 8 2
EPPENSTEINER, Alex 00:38 + 0 2/ 2 1- 1 0- 0 0- 0 1/ 1 0/ 0 0/ 1 0/ 1 0/ 1 0/ 0 0/ 1 0
DAVIS, Larry 13:10 +14 3/29 0- 0 1- 2 0- 0 2/13 0/ 7 0/21 1/21 0/ 9 0/ 7 0/13 0
WILKS, Darnell 14:58 +19 8/37 1- 1 2- 2 0- 2 3/13 0/ 6 0/25 0/22 1/10 1/ 6 5/16 1
KILPATRICK, Sean 23:40 +29 13/54 1- 1 3- 4 2- 2 5/25 0/10 0/34 1/34 0/20 1/13 2/25 0
McBRIDE, Anthony 00:54 + 0 0/ 2 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0/ 2 0/ 1 0/ 2 0/ 2 0/ 1 0/ 1 0/ 1 1
McCLAIN, Anthony 08:20 + 4 3/12 1- 1 0- 0 1- 2 1/ 9 0/ 3 0/ 9 0/ 9 0/ 5 1/ 5 1/ 7 1
PARKER, JaQuon 01:46 + 0 0/ 2 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0/ 3 0/ 1 0/ 3 0/ 3 0/ 1 0/ 2 0/ 2 0
TOTALS 40:00 69 9-20 9-22 24-30 42 10/18 1/59 11/59 4/35 8/25 29/37 14
. 0.450 0.409 0.800 0.556 0.017 0.186 0.114 0.320 0.784
Efficiency: Cincinnati 1.169, Georgetown 0.797
eFG%: Cincinnati 0.536, Georgetown 0.358
Substitutions: Cincinnati 37, Georgetown 34
2-pt Shot Selection:
Dunks: Cincinnati 0-0, Georgetown 0-1
Layups/Tips: Cincinnati 8-11, Georgetown 7-13
Jumpers: Cincinnati 1-9, Georgetown 6-21
Fast break pts (% FG pts): Cincinnati 5 (11.1), Georgetown 4 (10.5)
Pts (eff.) after steal: Cincinnati 0 (0.0), Georgetown 4 (66.7)
Seconds per poss: Cincinnati 20.4, Georgetown 20.3
I've watched Hollis play for a number of years (before and during his time at Gtown). At first I was surprised that you lumped Hollis with Nate as "low-usage players not comfortable putting up a lot of shots". This is the first time I've seen Hollis so under-utilized. His stats support the fact that he is a highly-effective and efficient shooter, but at Gtown, he doesn't get to take many shots, even when he's hot and calling for the ball.
ReplyDeleteYou may be right, Hollis does seems more comfortable in a more uptempo, fast-breaking offense, and when plays are called that allow him to get open looks by running his defenders off screens.
By the way, Hoya Prospectus remains my favorite source for insightful analysis and commentary on what's happening with Georgetown basketball. Keep up the great work!
First, thanks for the compliment (and also thanks to those previous readers who've sent praise along). I don't respond to comments as often as I should, but it's always nice to know someone is reading.
ReplyDeleteWith regards to Hollis' usage, it should not be taken as a criticism of either him or the offense specifically. You may be right that he's more comfortable playing up-tempo (and who isn't?), but he'll end up being a much better player in the end by being forced to handle, distribute, rebound, etc. He'll effectively take Freeman's role next season.
Unfortunately, that doesn't matter much right now - I think Hollis has been operating as the 4th or 5th option since he's been here, and it's hard to just switch roles so quickly, especially in this offense.