Saturday, January 28, 2012

Recap: Pittsburgh 72, Georgetown 60

Sorry gang - with illness and business travel conspiring against me, a stats dump is all you'll get tonight.

One quick comment:  in the first half today, Georgetown's starters shot a combined 1/8 2FG, 1/5 3FG, 0/2 FT to go along with 6 turnovers and 5 rebounds.  Ballgame.

Let's run the numbers:


TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Visitor                         Home      
.            Georgetown                      Pittsburgh         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            31        37        68

Points          22        38        60          33        39        72   

Effic.         71.4     102.7      88.5       107.1     105.4     106.2  
 
eFG%           38.9      53.3      46.5        51.9      59.5      55.2  
TO%            19.5      13.5      16.2        16.2      32.4      25.1  
OR%            25.0      12.5      19.4        28.6      25.0      27.3  
FTA/FGA        18.5      23.3      21.1        25.9      71.4      45.8  
 
Assist Rate    44.4      60.0      54.2        69.2      91.7      80.0  
Block Rate     15.0       6.7      11.4         0.0       0.0       0.0  
Steal Rate      3.2      13.5       8.9         0.0       8.1       4.4  
 
2FG%           31.6      61.9      47.5        55.0      73.3      62.9  
3FG%           37.5      22.2      29.4        28.6      16.7      23.1  
FT%            20.0      85.7      58.3        71.4      93.3      86.4


Saturday, January 21, 2012

Recap: Georgetown 52, Rutgers 50

Image from here
In a game where Georgetown shot a historic low from the field in the first half, the Hoyas rode their stingy defense and a busy official's whistle to a two point victory over the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, 52-50.

 The big story for the game is that the Hoyas managed to shoot an eFG of 13% in the first half, and 33% for the game but still win.  It has also been noted that this is the third terrible shooting day for the Hoyas this season [34% vs. Howard, 33% vs. Providence] that has ended in a victory, thanks to the Hoyas stellar defense.  Prior to this season, the JT3-led Hoyas had managed one victory while shooting under 40% eFG (vs. Temple in Nov. 2009).

Out of morbid curiosity, I also went through the archives of this blog to find the worst shooting half since we've been keeping track.  The only time Georgetown has managed even a sub-25% eFG in a half was Feb 23rd of last year, when a shell-shocked Hoyas team collapsed after Chris Wright left the floor with a broken hand.

The Scarlet Knights deserve a world of credit for the terrible shooting performance in the first half [3-15 2FG, 0-8 3FG] by the Hoyas, but Georgetown wasn't just missing tough shots - the Hoyas went 0-6 on layups and tips, including a blown fast-break layup by Greg Whittington.  Rutgers' great FG defense came at a cost, though - lots of fouls.  Those fouls resulted in 18 free throw attempts in the Lift-off half (and 14 makes) and didn't end during the Vespers half, where Georgetown went to the line another 18 times, although making only 11.

The problem for Rutgers was two-fold in the second half:  Georgetown wasn't missing the easy shots anymore [4/5 on dunks, layups and tips], and had stopped turning over the ball.  After committing 9 turnovers on 31 possessions in the first half, the Hoyas finally held onto the ball after intermission, committing only 5 turnovers in their last 29 possessions to claw back into the game, and finally to win it.

Let's run the numbers:


TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Home                            Visitor   
.            Georgetown                      RUTGERS         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            31        30        61
 
Points          20        32        52          25        25        50   

Effic.         63.9     107.7      84.9        79.9      84.2      81.7  
 
eFG%           13.0      58.3      32.9        50.0      37.9      43.4  
TO%            28.8      16.8      22.9        28.8      20.2      24.5  
OR%            45.0      28.6      38.2        15.4      33.3      25.8  
FTA/FGA        78.3     100.0      87.8         8.3      17.2      13.2  

Assist Rate    66.7      66.7      66.7        80.0      40.0      60.0  
Block Rate     18.8      23.8      21.6        13.3       0.0       7.4  
Steal Rate     12.8      10.1      11.4        16.0      10.1      13.1  
 
2FG%           20.0      50.0      33.3        37.5      38.1      37.8  
3FG%            0.0      50.0      21.4        50.0      25.0      37.5  
FT%            77.8      61.1      69.4        50.0      60.0      57.1 

more stats after the jump

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Recap: Georgetown 83, DePaul 75

Image from here
Tonight's game was a reminder of just how hard it is to win a Big East conference game on the road, as the Hoyas lead throughout but struggled to put away the DePaul Blue Demons before finally prevailing, 83-75.

The general impression I took away from tonight was that Georgetown wasn't going to get many calls and the Blue Demons were going to make some tough shots.  The Hoyas did themselves no favors on the free throw line, missing 8 of their first 12 attempts.  But thanks to a strong defensive effort in the first half, the Hoyas were able to establish and maintain enough separation to tough out another conference road win.

Markel Starks "could not go" tonight, so Otto Porter had his first career start. While Starks is actually one of the biggest culprits on turnovers [TO Rate = 22%], he's also a primary ball handler against the press, and that's what DePaul threw at Georgetown all night. Sure enough, the Hoyas struggled with turnovers: only at Louisville and at West Virginia did the Hoyas turn it over more. Not clear to me what ails Starks but hopefully he returns soon.


Let's run the numbers:


TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Visitor                         Home      
.            Georgetown                      DePaul         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            33        40        73

Points          37        46        83          31        44        75   

Effic.        113.1     114.8     114.1        94.8     109.9     103.1  
 
eFG%           58.6      58.9      58.8        46.6      54.3      50.8  
TO%            24.5      25.0      24.8        18.3      12.5      15.1  
OR%            53.3      52.9      53.1        22.2      27.3      25.0  
FTA/FGA        27.6      71.4      49.1        13.8      31.4      23.4  
 
Assist Rate    60.0      26.7      43.3        63.6      52.9      57.1  
Block Rate     31.2       8.7      17.9         9.1      13.6      11.4  
Steal Rate     12.2      12.5      12.4        12.2       7.5       9.6  
 
2FG%           50.0      54.5      52.3        37.5      56.5      48.7  
3FG%           57.1      50.0      53.8        38.5      33.3      36.0  
FT%            37.5      65.0      57.1       100.0      54.5      66.7


More thought and stats after the jump

Sunday, January 15, 2012

Recap: Georgetown 69, St. John's 49

After dominating long stretches of the game only to watch their lead shrink to three points midway through the second half, the Georgetown Hoyas used a 21-4 run to close out the St. John's Red Storm at the world's most famous arena, 69-49.

A simplistic way to describe Georgetown's offensive game today is Hollis Thompson for three [5/9 3FG] and second-chance points [19 off. reb, 21 pts]. The Hoyas' offense failed to make shots in the first half, settling for too many mid-range jumpshots [3/11] rather than inside attempts [4/9]. The Hoyas turned this around in the second half, where they continually attacked the rim or followed their own miss [10/16] rather than hoisting 2FG jumpers [1/4].


The Hoyas struggled with their man-to-man defense in the second half against Cincinnati, but found the perfect opponent to work out the kinks of their 2-3 zone in the Redmen. St. John's came into the game shooting 25% on 3FGs in conference play, 14th in the Big East. So Georgetown quickly abandoned any pretense of using a man defense, preferring to pack in a zone and dare the Johnnies to shoot over the top [0/10 3FGA] or try to force the ball into the paint [23% TO rate].

St. John's found some life in the second half by drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line [14/20 FT]. Indeed, this is what fueled their own second half run as they made 8/9 FTA while whittling down a 42-31 Georgetown lead to 48-45. But the Johnnies would make only 2 free throws the rest of the way as the Hoyas ran off 21 points in their last 10 possessions to ice the game.



Let's run the numbers:


TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Visitor                         Home      
.            Georgetown                      ST. JOHNS         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            28        33        61

Points          25        44        69          19        30        49   

Effic.         89.6     132.9     113.5        68.1      90.6      80.6  
 
eFG%           34.5      63.8      49.1        33.3      29.6      31.5  
TO%            21.5      18.1      19.7        21.5      24.2      23.0  
OR%            47.6      60.0      52.8        27.8      54.5      42.5  
FTA/FGA        20.7      44.8      32.8         3.7      74.1      38.9  
 
Assist Rate    55.6      75.0      68.0        55.6      37.5      47.1  
Block Rate     14.3      13.0      13.6        15.0       5.0      10.0  
Steal Rate      7.2      18.1      13.2        17.9      15.1      16.5  
 
2FG%           35.0      55.0      45.0        42.9      34.8      38.6  
3FG%           22.2      55.6      38.9         0.0       0.0       0.0  
FT%            83.3      53.8      63.2       100.0      70.0      71.4

Friday, January 13, 2012

We'd have a clever title if this were a regular feature, which it's not

I have always been impressed by Casual Hoya's "Sleeping With the Enemy" title for their rival blogger chats before games, even if I can't shake Chris Berman's terrible nickname for Eric Bienemy when I hear it (yes, all Bermanisms are terrible).  I'm not going to try to match it. 

So no witty title for our exchange of questions with Rumble in the Garden and definitely not as witty as questions as you'll likely find over at Casual (since I believe they are exchanging with Rumble as well).  That said, we have different questions, and if it is one thing that internet has proven, it's that sports fans will read anything about their favorite team, no matter the author or quality.  (To that point, Rumble will post my answers to their questions sometime soon).

So without further ado, here's the answers Pico Dulce of Rumble sent over to our astute questions:

HP:  How happy are you that Nuri Lindsey is gone? (Editor's Note:  I don't have much use for high usage, poor shooting ballhogs.)

RitG:  Nurideen Lindsey's departure is bittersweet. On one hand, St. John's is a team with seven scholarship players, most of whom struggle to get their shot. And they aren't as impressive at drawing fouls, which is a major component of what St. John's was doing well early on. With his on-court production added to the knee-jerk fan (and opponent fan) reaction whenever a player of note transfers - "what's goin' on over there?!" - it's not the most positive news.

On the other hand, Nuri's offense often had a go-for-self quality. The offense was a Nuri fast break, and then either a turnover or being backed out into an indecisive possession with Nuri clapping his hands for the ball on the perimeter, where he never hit a shot. (That's not hyperbole.) For the health of the team, for the young players' development, and for the general sense of cohesiveness, Nuri's departure ends up being a slight plus.

But an eight-man roster would have been awesome. 

HP:  It's been a long since a SJU team could shoot well from the perimeter. This team doesn't look like the one that breaks the streak (though I'm sure someone will shoot 60% on Sunday) -- can the Johnnies be a real contender if they can't exploit the 3 ball?


RitG:  In a year or two, yes. What you'll likely see is a team that has some okay shooters and one designated bomber from outside. And it'll be a team that chooses to score in transition or by driving the ball instead of waiting for perimeter jump shots. The three is nice. But drawing a foul and making a two-point shot is pretty damaging to the other team.

This year? No.The team's inability to make twos (including the easy ones) and score through traffic will hurt their win/ loss total. 

HP:  This year feels like a rebuilding year for SJU. Will the players stick around long enough for it to take? Is there another strong class coming in to bolster the strong (but weakened) class that is playing now?


RitG:  You've got that right. It's a complete rebuild. Only two players were around last year - one was a walk-on who has played in one game this season named Jamal White. Malik Stith, the other player, averaged 8.5 minutes per game in conference play in 2011, logged 4 DNPs, and is a low-impact, low-usage player who now averages 13.6 minutes in conference play, despite there being only 6 other options. 

So yes, it's a rebuilding year. 

The current class of players seem like they're in it for the long haul. One is a junior college transfer, so he won't be around much longer. The others are likely 3-4 year players, though Moe Harkless has pro potential/ pro interest. Generally, having 4 top-100 players is enough to compete with most of the league.

The 2012 recruiting class has blown away like powdery snow. So no, there is no class waiting in the wings; but the Red Storm are recruiting (and re-recruiting) the players who had decommitted in the wake of Steve Lavin's absence. The Johnnies stand a good chance with most of the players besides Norvel Pelle, one of the players deemed ineligible in the fall. 

HP:  I haven't seen SJU since Lindsey left. Compare Moe Harkless and D'Angelo Harrison to similar players for me. Are either of them NBA players at some point?

RitG:  Harkless is a fairly unique player. A comparison should be to the line of long U Conn small forwards - Rudy Gay, Stanley Robinson - with length and skills, but he's not there yet in terms of completing the shots he can get off. He's skinny, long, can run, blocks shots but shows the ability to get some good shots from all over the court. I think he gets to the NBA, but he has to nail more jumpers, especially with a hand in his face in the mid-range.

D`Angelo Harrison is also hard to pin down, but I'd invoke Ben Hansbrough and Dominique Jones in comparison - high usage guards who can also pass, play tough, draw charges. I don't know that he's an NBA player - he's not a point guard but is heady. He may be a better shooter next year, but at 6'2/6'3, that's not something the NBA falls in love with except in spectacular cases. I think he'll be one of those four year players that opponents just HATE, and announcers keep telling you should get a look from the NBA. He's not as unathletic as Ashton Gibbs, though.

HP:  Does Lavin recruit entirely on how cool a kid's name sounds? C'mon, you can admit it.  (Editor's Note:  Seriously, look at their roster.  Just awesome.)

RitG:  Yes. I'm hoping for a baller named Du'Swain at some point. There's actually a Raekwon out there, class of 2013 or 2014 I believe. 

HP:  How do you feel about the general long term state of the program? Given the relative upheaval in the Big East, it would be extremely advantageous for a non-football school to be very good in basketball if and when this thing falls apart. What are the chances SJU is ready for that?

RitG:  I think the future is bright. 

The Big East's future is tenuous, for sure, but the program has a real leader, an urbane fellow who wins games and plays a fun style, a guy who is great at communicating with kids and bringing in recruits. Is St. John's ready for the breakup of the league? I don't think any program is. It's impossible to predict what that would look like, where the money flows come from, and what investments programs would make in their hoops.

Monday, January 9, 2012

Recap: Cincinnati 68, Georgetown 64

The Hoyas played carelessly with the ball all night at the Verizon Center in losing to the Cincinnati Bearcats, 68-64.  In addition to the sloppy offensive effort, Georgetown was shredded late on isolation plays, allowing 12 points on their last 6 defensive possessions.

"Other than the turnovers, Coach Thompson, how did you enjoy the offense?"

The Hoyas shot 6/10 on 3FGs (including Jason Clark's errant mid-court shot at the final buzzer) and abused the Bearcats inside the paint [14/19 on dunks, layups and tip-ins].  They gathered more than a third of their own missed shots for the first time since at Louisville.  But Georgetown simply couldn't put together a great offensive game because of the incessant turnovers [17], usually on a Cincinnati steal [13].  The turnover differential in the game [17-9] meant that the Bearcats had eight more offensive possessions end with a scoring attempt.  In a game that was tied with less than 90 seconds remaining, that's a killer.

And not to beat a dead horse, but down near the bottom of the HD box score, we track points-after-steals; tonight the Hoyas trailed in that stat 14-0.

But here's the funny thing - the offense really wasn't the problem tonight.  Seriously.  Cincinnati is actually a solid defensive team - they had allowed 0.91 pts / possession in their first three conference games, mostly by turning over their opponents.

No, the real issue tonight was the Hoyas' defense.

The Bearcats came into the game struggling to make shots in conference games - 40 2FG%, 42 eFG% coming in, which were second-worst and worst in the conference, respectively.  Yet tonight, the Hoyas watched Dion Dixon and Sean Kilpatrick manage a combined 14/21 on 2FGs in the game, and the Bearcats as a whole shoot a cool 50% eFG for the game.

Georgetown's early season success was predicated upon their stingy defense and just enough offense to put teams away.  The Hoyas are now finding that they can't get the stops as easily as they once did, and will have to find a fix to stay with the top teams in the league.

Thankfully, the conference season is still early on and the young Hoyas can still adjust and improve.



Let's run the numbers:


.            Home                            Visitor   
.            Georgetown                      Cincinnati         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            31        29        59
 
Points          34        30        64          32        36        68   

Effic.        110.0     105.2     108.0       103.5     126.2     114.8  
 
eFG%           66.0      65.8      65.9        48.1      52.2      50.0  
TO%            29.1      28.0      28.7        16.2      14.0      15.2  
OR%            27.3      44.4      35.0        26.7      42.9      34.5  
FTA/FGA         4.0      47.4      22.7        22.2      69.6      44.0  

Assist Rate    50.0      58.3      53.8        16.7      45.5      30.4  
Block Rate     10.5      11.1      10.8         0.0       0.0       0.0  
Steal Rate      9.7       7.0       8.4        25.9      17.5      21.9  
 
2FG%           50.0      68.8      58.8        52.6      50.0      51.4  
3FG%           71.4      33.3      60.0        25.0      40.0      30.8  
FT%           100.0      55.6      60.0       100.0      75.0      81.8


Saturday, January 7, 2012

Recap: West Virginia 74, Georgetown 62

Sorry for the late post - complete game stats were hard to come by.

I'll just be adding some quick thoughts off the cuff as I watch the replay.
  • The big story over the last two games, and one that will certainly bear watching, is that the Hoyas are suddenly not playing great defense. One of the stats pages at the top of the page is called "Big East Snapshot" which graphically shows how each team is playing offensively and defensively, adjusted for competition and venue. After running off a stretch of six straight games of allowing an adj def. efficiency of less than 90 pts / 100 possessions, the last two games - and actually three of the past four - have had the Hoyas above that mark. To be clear, it's not that the Hoyas are playing poor defense, just not at the elite level of December.
  • The stats for the previous game vs. Marquette showed that the starters struggled to defend but the freshmen off the bench were able to shut down the Golden Eagles. Against the Mountaineers, it was the starters who ended up with solid defensive stats while the bench were a step behind.  I wondered how much of that was simply due to the Hoyas attempting to extend the game late in the second half, but the same difference was also there if I look only at the first half stats (except Whittington, who rated very well in the Lift-off half).
  • I've seen some some complaints that Henry Sims is suffering from an inability to finish his inside shots. Today is probably a good example of what Henry is actually suffering from - Greg Monroe disease. He's simply settling for too many shots away from the basket; of the 10 FGAs for Sims in today's game, eight were recorded as jumpshots in the play-by-play (of course, Henry also missed his two layup attempts as well).


Let's run the numbers:


TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Visitor                         Home      
.            Georgetown                      West Virginia         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            32        38        70

Points          27        35        62          29        45        74   

Effic.         83.3      92.8      88.4        89.4     119.3     105.5  
 
eFG%           43.8      40.9      42.1        44.6      67.5      54.2  
TO%            30.8      13.3      21.4        24.7      23.9      24.2  
OR%            37.5      27.3      31.6        38.9      33.3      36.7  
FTA/FGA        33.3      36.4      35.1        25.0     120.0      64.6  
 
Assist Rate    40.0      46.2      43.5        75.0      25.0      50.0  
Block Rate      9.1      14.3      11.1        10.5       8.3       9.3  
Steal Rate      6.2      15.9      11.4        12.3      10.6      11.4  
 
2FG%           47.4      50.0      48.8        50.0      64.3      55.6  
3FG%           20.0      11.1      14.3        16.7      50.0      33.3  
FT%            75.0      66.7      70.0        57.1      75.0      71.0


Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Recap: Georgetown 73, Marquette 70

Image from here.
Alan is covering for Brian tonight.

A story of two halves tonight at the Verizon Center, as the Georgetown Hoyas clawed back from a deficit as large as 17 points in the second half by outscoring the Marquette Golden Eagles 26-10 over the final 14 possessions of the game to win 73-70.

In fact, the first half itself was a story of two halves.  In the first half of the first half, neither team could truly stop the other as Georgetown played the kind of defense last seen versus Ohio in the NCAA Tournament.

I'm not sure what kind of zone allows opposing players to stand next to the basket, but let's not play that one anymore, okay?

On offense, Georgetown stayed close by playing the Georgetown offense truly on steroids -- for the game Georgetown shot an insane 21-25 on two point shots and countered themselves by treating the basketball like a hot potato.  The Hoyas would have likely scored close to ninety if they didn't spend most of the first half chucking the ball away, often to Marquette players.  Marquette deserved some credit for this, of course, but Georgetown has by and large handled pressure well this year; this was a regression.

Both teams then simply flatlined, refusing to score.  For Georgetown, the turnovers intensified, in part fueled by Markel Starks, who probably should not have been back in the game following getting landed on by a Marquette player.  Marquette recovered and began shredding the defense that had just begun to recover.

The second half started with some back and forth, but in the end it was almost a complete reverse.  It was the Georgetown defense that was forcing turnovers; it was the Georgetown offense that was hitting its three pointers.  And the offense was still hitting pretty much every two it took.  When the Hoyas protect the ball and actually get to shoot, the offense can be deadly.

(Wait:  can this be Exhibit Z submitted as proof, alongside all the Hoyas' other comebacks, as evidence that the offense can come back from large deficits?)

But as good as the offense was in the second half, you need defense to come back just as much (if not more).  And the defense was good -- sparked by fantastic play by the freshmen perimeter duo of Jabril Trawick and Greg Whittington on D.  Nearly everyone played well on D in the second half but these two were phenomenal.

As evidence, I submit:  Greg Whittington, 17 minutes, +16 in plus/minus.  Not often you see that from a SG who scored two points.

Though every player played a role, at the end of the day, this comeback belonged to two veterans to my eye:  Hollis Thompson, whose dead-eye shots sealed the deal; and Jason Clark, who willed it to start at the beginning of the second half and simply kept scoring until we won.  The Hoyas' offense spreads shots but Clark used over 30% of his possessions when he was in, and did so with fantastic efficiency.

I'm going to go re-watch it right now.  Yes, it's one a.m. on the West Coast.  So what?

Let's run the numbers:

TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Home                            Visitor   
.            Georgetown                      Marquette         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            35        32        66
 
Points          29        44        73          43        27        70   

Effic.         83.4     139.3     109.9       123.7      85.5     105.4  
 
eFG%           54.5      85.7      69.8        55.7      44.1      51.9  
TO%            34.5      15.8      25.6        14.4      34.8      24.1  
OR%            23.1      16.7      21.1        41.2      35.7      38.7  
FTA/FGA        36.4      71.4      53.5        14.3      88.2      38.5  

Assist Rate    72.7      62.5      66.7        70.6      50.0      65.2  
Block Rate     12.5      10.0      11.8         8.3       0.0       4.0  
Steal Rate      8.6      19.0      13.6        14.4      12.7      13.6  
 
2FG%           75.0      92.3      84.0        50.0      30.0      44.1  
3FG%           20.0      50.0      33.3        45.5      42.9      44.4  
FT%            62.5      53.3      56.5        80.0      80.0      80.0

more stats after the jump

Sunday, January 1, 2012

Coach Thompson, Simply in Numbers

Below I've put four stats into context for the entirety of John Thompson III's time as head coach of the Hoyas.

I've included the Pomeroy rankings from 2012, because as Brian notes in this awesome article here, they are a very strong predictor of the year-end numbers.  I haven't used the conference win predictions because there is a difference to my mind between the two [editor's note:  this is Alan's gentle way of saying he doesn't believe them].

I'm not going to write up an analysis for now; draw your own conclusions.

1.  Winning
Regular Season Conference Wins

     Team   2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012     Avg
 1   Pitt    10   10   12   10   15   13   15    -     12.1
 2   Lou      -    6   12   14   16   11   12    -     11.8
 3   Vill    11   14    9    9   13   13    9    -     11.1
 4   Conn    13   14    6   13   15    7    9    -     11.0
 5   Syr     11    7   10    9   11   15   12    -     10.7
 6   Marq     -   10   10   11   12   11    9    -     10.5
 7   WVU      8   11    9   11   10   13   11    -     10.4
 8   Gtown    8   10   13   15    7   10   10    -     10.4
 9   ND       9    6   11   14    8   10   14    -     10.3
 10  Cincy    -    8    2    8    8    7   11    -      7.3
 11  SHU      4    9    4    7    7    9    7    -      6.7
 12  SJU      3    5    7    5    6    6   12    -      6.3
 13  Prov     4    5    8    6   10    4    4    -      5.9
 14  USF      -    1   12    3    4    9    3    -      5.3
 15  Rut      2    7    3    3    2    5    5    -      3.9
 16  DeP      -    5    9    6    0    1    1    -      3.7


Pomeroy Rank         

     Team    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012     Avg
 1   Lou       -   38   12    6    4   43   14   17     19.1
 2   Pitt     22   12   13   21    5   31    4   50     19.8
 3   Gtown    42   14    5    7   27   13   40   13     20.1
 4   WVU      30   16   32   19    9    8   21   37     21.5
 5   Syr      17   51   37   38   15    4   11    4     22.1
 6   Conn     13    4   49   22    3   56   10   28     23.1
 7   Marq      -   28   38   11   19   33   32   18     25.6
 8   Vill      4    7   19   43   14   21   33   64     25.6
 9   ND       48   27   20   28   38   38   15   43     32.1
 10  Cincy     -   42   113  98   85   75   23   52     69.7
 11  SHU      92   84   81   103  73   72   59   42     75.8
 12  Prov     50   71   67   74   80   88   96   139    83.1
 13  SJU      84   108  101  126  116  67   42   144    98.5
 14  USF       -   162  131  101  135  83   127  137   125.1
 15  Rut      118  69   166  164  141  156  78   124   127.0
 16  DeP       -   82   46   95   198  172  202  152   135.3

Quick thoughts: The biggest difference between the two is probably 2012, as well as noting that there's only a small difference (less than one win) between 3rd and 9th in average conference wins. After that it could be schedule strength, under-performance in conference play, and/or luck.

a look at the offense and defense after the jump