Recap: Georgetown 70, Memphis 59

 Georgetown jumped out to a big lead, then began coasting a bit too early tonight but hung on to win convincingly, 80-69, against the Memphis Tigers at the Verizon Center.

After a fairly evenly matched first 18 minutes, Georgetown used a 20-3 run bracketing half time to jump out to a big lead against the Tigers tonight. The spread grew to as many as 20 points before Memphis switched into a 2-3 zone to slow down the Hoyas' offense. Georgetown began to bog down in the half-court, and a spate of six turnovers in a nine-possession stretch brought the Tigers to within 7 points with 4:26 left in the game. But the Hoyas managed to score nine points over their next seven possessions, never allowing the Memphis to get any closer in the game.

Vegas pegged the the Hoyas to be -5 coming in, and Ken Pomeroy agreed (favoring the Hoyas by 7), so an 11-point win should feel like a big deal to Georgetown fans - but I didn't feel particularly excited about the win.  Part of this might just be the quality of the game itself, with the frequent fouls and turnovers, but a bigger part is a worrying trend creeping in: blowing big leads.

• Against Alabama, the Hoyas lead by nine points with under 3:00 left in the game and watched the Tide take the lead before Hollis Thompson hit a game-winning 3FG.
• Against Howard, the Hoyas jumped out to a 17-0 lead and still were ahead by 16 points with a minute left in the first half, and watched the the Bison close to with two points several times, including with less than 6:00 in the game.
• And now tonight.

I'll suggest that this is the sort of thing that happens with a young team - the Hoyas rank 273/345 nationally in experience as per KenPom - and is just something that the fans will have to suffer through this season.  So far, the results - a 10-1 record and a nationally-ranked team - have made it worthwhile.

Let's run the numbers:

TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Home                            Visitor   
.            Georgetown                      Memphis         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            32        34        66
 
Points          35        35        70          28        31        59   

Effic.        109.1     102.1     105.8        87.3      90.4      89.1  
 
eFG%           58.0      38.5      48.0        45.5      46.6      46.1  
TO%            21.8      23.3      22.7        31.2      23.3      27.2  
OR%            30.8      57.1      47.1        28.6      36.8      33.3  
FTA/FGA        32.0      84.6      58.8        40.9      27.6      33.3  

Assist Rate    53.8      66.7      59.1        55.6      69.2      63.6  
Block Rate     12.5       4.5       7.9         5.3      16.7      10.8  
Steal Rate     15.6      14.6      15.1         3.1      17.5      10.6  
 
2FG%           52.6      38.9      45.9        43.8      54.5      50.0  
3FG%           50.0      25.0      35.7        33.3      14.3      23.1  
FT%            75.0      68.2      70.0        88.9      50.0      70.6

More stats after the jump

Recap: Georgetown 91, Memphis 88 [OT]

Brian may or may not get the stats up tonight, so I'm going to write up some notes blind. Undoubtedly I will get some things wrong.

[ed. note: stats now added]

Without further ado, here's my thoughts on Georgetown's performance in the Maui Classic:

• Just to be clear, I'm going to be pretty wishy-washy here. The Hoyas played well against a couple of highly ranked opponents, which is fantastic. But that said, Memphis isn't anywhere near the 8th best team in the country and I'm a bit suspect of Kansas at this point as well (though mid-teens seems fair). To be fair, I seem to perpetually underestimate Tyshawn Taylor.

• That said, Georgetown was almost certainly at least the fourth best team in this tourney and perhaps third despite finishing fifth.

• Henry Sims! The chorus for Henry has either been unadulterated praise or off hand comments like "everyone is lighting up Memphis' frontcourt." Here's why the latter is somewhat wrong - big, burly Tarik Black stayed in the game today. Yes, he's not Dikembe, but he's exactly the kind of guy who would push Henry around so much last year. Henry saved the Hoyas, and while he's not going to be Alonzo or even Roy, he's well on his way to his Ya-Ya year (and likely much better than Ya-Ya).

• Just to highlight why Henry was such a dynamo tonight -- he scored efficiently, passed well, turned over the ball a bit but not too much -- but his biggest contribution might have been the extra five possessions he created on the offensive boards. Awesome.

• Memphis also respected Henry enough that the helping second defender created off. rebounding opportunities for others, like Greg Whittington.

• I have to admit I was not hopeful about Jason Clark making a leap this year. But he has. His shot is still streakier than I'd like, but have we seen anyone improve their handle more than Clark in one year? Amazing. And it's led to a much better ability to drive the ball, pull-up, etc. Clark has turned himself into a dynamic offensive player.

• This team makes the difficult lay-ups they haven't made in years.

• I can't decide what my favorite part of Otto Porter's Memphis line is -- the four steals or the fact that he played forty minutes and committed just one turnover.

• Wait, it's the steals.

• Lubick had an atrocious game and has not looked confident, but the team needs him. Neither Adams nor Hopkins are ready to play against big time opponents and the Porter-as-PF lineup was helped by Memphis not having a PF and having many of those minutes occur with Black in foul trouble or fouled out. Having the ability to play Porter at PF is wonderful; having him as the only PF the team can rely on is awful.

• I love Jabril Trawick's defensive stance. Just awesome.

• Markel had a quietly fantastic offensive game versus Memphis. Both he and Clark have surprised me with their ability to drive, and even better for Markel, he made his threes.

• Perimeter defense is still an issue, though. Despite talk of Georgetown's improved D, it really wasn't very good. They fouled a ton, didn't close out on perimeter shooters and couldn't keep any guards from any team -- KU, Memphis or even Chaminade -- out of the lane. It's a problem when you can't defend the three or the drive, somehow. Memphis was shooting well, but the guards weren't making it hard for them, either.

• There were a couple stretches where the Hoyas dominated the boards. It's there; it's possible; but it's not quite in the Hoyas' grasp yet.

• I wouldn't get too high over this, yet. This game feels like Missouri last year. Memphis committed a lot of unforced errors that offset how well they shot and Georgetown gutted out a close game. But the parallels to last year's team may stop there -- last year's team was not as young nor as deep as this year's and last year's team lost its most important player at the most important time of year.

The usual stats extravaganza after the jump.

Recap: Georgetown 86, Memphis 69

Georgetown went down to Memphis and put up a big second half to pull away last night, 86-69.

Someone else's highlight clips

This was probably a bad game for Memphis's Coach Pastner to schedule if he was interested in getting a win:  bringing in a disciplined team of upperclassmen, led by two senior McD All-Americans, to face his talented but very raw group just wasn't going to end well.  But as a teaching point ("That was a backdoor cut.  That was another backdoor cut . . . Don't do a chin-up on the rim when you're down by 10."), it could pay dividends for the Tigers down the road.


Let's run the numbers:

TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE 

.            Visitor                         Home      
.            Georgetown                      Memphis         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            35        36        71

Effic.        115.6     127.7     121.7       104.1      91.6      97.6  
 
eFG%           58.1      64.8      61.2        45.5      42.4      43.9  
TO%            17.3      13.9      15.6        23.1      16.7      19.8  
OR%            26.7      33.3      29.6        50.0      31.8      40.5  
FTA/FGA        22.6      59.3      39.7        18.2      24.2      21.2  
 
Assist Rate    68.8      41.2      54.5        53.8      61.5      57.7  
Block Rate     20.0      18.2      19.1        16.0       4.5      10.6  
Steal Rate     14.5       8.3      11.3        14.5       8.3      11.3  
 
2FG%           48.0      72.7      59.6        36.0      50.0      42.6  
3FG%           66.7      20.0      45.5        50.0      18.2      31.6  
FT%            57.1      68.8      65.2       100.0      62.5      78.6

Georgetown's offense is starting to remind me of a football team.  The two main weapons (outside shooting and back cuts) are like passing and running schemes, and one can be used to set up the other.  Last night, the Hoyas started with the aerial assault, shooting 4/6 from behind the arc during the Lift-off half and forcing the Tigers to come out and guard.  That was likely the adjustment made during halftime, so Georgetown started attacking the basket.  Memphis was able to block 4 of 15 inside shots in the first half, but only 1 of 15 inside shots in the second.

Memphis was able to keep in contact in the first half with offensive rebounding [10 on 20 opportunities, resulting in 8 points] and outside shooting [4/8 3FG].  It was basically a two-man team:  Will Barton and Will Coleman were a combined 7/13 2FG and 2/4 3FG for 22 points, with 4 OR / 6 DR.  The rest of Memphis chipped in 14 points.

As the lead grew in the Vesper half, the Tiger offense began to lose discipline and settled for 3FGs [2/11].  Meanwhile, Coach Thompson's obvious adjustment at halftime - tightening up the defensive glass - kinda, sorta worked.  Memphis was able to grab only 7 of their 22 misses, but still managed to generate 10 second-chance points].  Unfortunately for the Tigers, that was about all that was working.

Game Ball: Memphis

CO has already given his player of the game to DaJuan Summers, so consider this an extra game ball.

But it has to go to John Thompson, III. In every sport, coaches who are considered geniuses at one point are often exposed when they cannot adjust their strategy and game plans to their personnel. System coaches will look brilliant when the players fit, and when it does not, their teams often fail miserably.

This year's incarnation of the Hoyas hasn't gotten enough credit for both simultaneously running the same offense and at the same time, running it differently from previous years.

CO has already detailed how the team is running more. But the team has also undergone another dramatic shift: it is driving more in the halfcourt as well, and as a consequence is drawing many more fouls. For several years, Georgetown perimeter players simply didn't draw fouls. Sapp, Freeman and Wallace all hovered around a 20 FT Rate last year. This year, Chris Wright's 39 is the lowest of the top six players.

It was that ability to get to the line that won the Memphis game -- a game we would have lost last year (well, we did lose last year). Many people questioned Thompson's ability to adjust his style to his players. Thompson has done that smoothly, without abandoning any of the principles of his offense as well.

Recap: Georgetown 79, Memphis 70

I have a Christmas party to go to, so the numbers will have to mostly speak for themselves. I'll try to flush this out a bit if I have time later tonight.

Let's run the numbers:

TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE

.            Home                            Visitor   
.            GU                              Memphis 
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            37        33        70

Effic.         99.5     100.4     100.1       102.1      76.5      88.7

eFG%           41.1      48.3      44.8        42.1      33.8      37.8
TO%            13.4      21.5      17.7        26.9      23.9      25.3
OR%            26.3      26.3      26.3        58.3      40.7      49.0
FT Rate        64.3      60.0      62.1        23.7      15.0      19.2

Assist Rate    60.0      28.6      41.7        26.7      50.0      37.0
Block Rate     12.9      10.7      11.9         5.9       4.8       5.3
Steal Rate      8.1       7.2       7.6        13.4      14.3      13.9

2FG%           41.2      61.9      52.6        41.9      32.1      37.3
3FG%           27.3      11.1      20.0        28.6      25.0      26.3
FT%            77.8      72.2      75.0        66.7      83.3      73.3  

That 3FG% is normally the kiss of death for the Hoyas - G'town shot 20% or less twice last season, and lost both games (at Pitt and at Louisville). And today's percentage is a bit inflated by J. Sapp's garbage 3FG as the game ended. I'm not sure how much as attributable to the uber-long Memphis guards - Memphis came in allowing 30.7% on 3FG, good but not exceptional.

The +16 points scored at the FT line seems to have been the real key to the game, and very unusual for the Hoyas before this season.

Another key was forcing Memphis into 3/22 on 2FG jumpers (thank you Mr. Evans). That helped offset G'town's own shooting woes.

INDIVIDUAL NET POINTS STATS

GU                    Off    Poss           Individ     Def             Individ           
Player                Poss   Used    ORtg   Pts Prod    Poss    DRtg   Pts Allow   Net Pts
Summers, DaJuan        73    14.2   120.5    17.1        74     80.5     11.9       +5.2  
Wright, Chris          72    13.6    98.6    13.4        73     86.2     12.6       +0.9  
Monroe, Greg           72    14.9   101.7    15.1        74     87.7     13.0       +2.1  
Freeman, Austin        68    18.7    92.9    17.4        68     98.7     13.4       +3.9  
Sapp, Jessie           53     7.7    97.7     7.5        49     82.6      8.1       -0.6  
Clark, Jason           29     5.6    89.7     5.0        34     91.7      6.2       -1.2  
Vaughn, Julian          7     0.0     -       0.0         6     96.0      1.2       -1.2  
Wattad, Omar           21     3.8    59.7     2.3        22     62.9      2.8       -0.5  
TOTALS                 79    78.5    99.2    77.8        80     86.4     69.1       +8.7  

Memphis               Off    Poss           Individ     Def             Individ           
Player                Poss   Used    ORtg   Pts Prod    Poss    DRtg   Pts Allow   Net Pts
Dozier, Robert         60    13.3    77.1    10.3        57     92.2     10.5       -0.3  
Henderson-Niles, P     14     3.7    99.1     3.7        12    104.4      2.5       +1.2  
Anderson, Antonio      72     8.2    31.7     2.6        70     92.3     12.9      -10.3  
Witherspoon, Wesley    47    10.2    77.2     7.9        47     83.4      7.8       +0.1  
Evans, Tyreke          62    19.1    88.0    16.8        63     90.1     11.3       +5.5  
Taggart, Shawn         65    14.9   117.3    17.5        66     97.7     12.9       +4.6  
Kemp, Willie           34     2.0     0.0     0.0        34    111.1      7.6       -7.6  
Simpkins, Matt          9     0.0     -       0.0        12     53.3      1.3       -1.3  
Mack, Doneal           37     5.7   111.4     6.3        34    103.6      7.0       -0.7  
TOTALS                 80    77.1    84.3    65.0        79     93.6     73.9       -8.9    

Coach Thompson played a very short bench today, with only J. Clark and O. Wattad getting significant minutes. Special kudos to Omar for drawing at least 2 offensive charges (that's what I remember), which helped him lead the team in defensive efficiency. The play-by-play doesn't credit which player draws those fouls, but it still picked up on the additional TO's by Memphis while he was on the court

Player of the game is . . . DaJuan Summers, who also had a strong defensive game which was complemented with nice shooting day inside (6/7 2FG, 6/8 FT). He missed 4 out of 5 3FGA, but the team as a whole really struggled with this (as noted above).

HD BOX SCORE

Memphis vs GU
12/13/08 2:00 at Verizon Center
Final score: GU 79, Memphis 70

Memphis                 Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
Dozier, Robert         33:56  - 6   9/52  3- 9  1- 2  0- 2 11/59  2/16  1/57  4/60  0/31  5/40  6/28   5
Henderson-Niles, P     08:33  - 1   4/14  2- 3  0- 0  0- 0  3/14  1/ 4  0/12  1/14  0/ 8  1/ 8  2/ 5   2
Anderson, Antonio      40:17  -13   2/59  0- 4  0- 4  2- 3  8/65  1/23  2/70  1/72  0/34  1/43  6/33   4
Witherspoon, Wesley    29:23  + 2   7/48  1- 6  1- 2  2- 2  8/51  2/16  3/47  3/47  0/22  3/33  3/26   3
Evans, Tyreke          35:24  - 6  20/56  7-19  1- 5  3- 4 24/64  3/13  3/63  5/62  1/31  3/44  4/33   4
Taggart, Shawn         36:23  -10  21/53  8-15  1- 1  2- 2 16/63  0/11  0/66  4/65  0/30  6/44  4/33   3
Kemp, Willie           16:24  -17   0/22  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/28  0/ 9  1/34  2/34  0/16  0/20  0/12   0
Simpkins, Matt         04:52  + 4   0/11  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 9  0/ 5  1/12  0/ 9  0/ 3  0/ 4  0/ 5   3
Mack, Doneal           19:48  + 2   7/35  1- 3  1- 5  2- 2  8/37  1/11  0/34  0/37  1/15  1/24  1/15   0
TOTALS                 45:00       70    22-59  5-19 11-15    78 10/27 11/79 20/80  2/38 25/51 28/38  24
.                                        0.373 0.263 0.733       0.370 0.139 0.250 0.053 0.490 0.737  

GU                      Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
Summers, DaJuan        41:22  +13  21/77  6- 7  1- 5  6- 8 12/53  1/16  2/74  1/73  3/54  1/34  6/49   2
Wright, Chris          41:03  +12  14/75  5-10  0- 3  4- 4 13/51  3/17  1/73  2/72  0/54  0/33  3/46   3
Monroe, Greg           41:45  + 9  13/75  2- 7  0- 0  9-12  7/53  3/22  2/74  3/72  3/54  2/33  4/48   2
Freeman, Austin        39:10  - 2  18/65  5- 9  1- 3  5- 8 12/46  1/13  1/68  4/68  0/54  2/31  3/46   1
Sapp, Jessie           27:22  +12   6/54  1- 3  1- 4  1- 2  7/42  1/15  0/49  2/53  1/36  2/27  5/33   4
Clark, Jason           18:43  - 7   4/23  1- 2  0- 1  2- 2  3/19  0/ 6  0/34  1/29  0/24  2/14  3/22   2
Vaughn, Julian         03:15  + 0   0/ 4  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 5  0/ 0  0/ 6  0/ 7  0/ 5  0/ 5  0/ 4   0
Wattad, Omar           12:20  + 8   3/22  0- 0  1- 4  0- 0  4/21  1/ 7  0/22  1/21  0/14  0/13  2/12   1
TOTALS                 45:00       79    20-38  4-20 27-36    58 10/24  6/80 14/79  7/59 10/38 26/51  15
.                                        0.526 0.200 0.750       0.417 0.075 0.177 0.119 0.263 0.510  

Efficiency: GU 1.000, Memphis 0.875
eFG%: GU 0.448, Memphis 0.378
Substitutions: GU 31, Memphis 52

2-pt Shot Selection:
Dunks: GU 1-1, Memphis 4-4
Layups/Tips: GU 15-25, Memphis 15-33
Jumpers: GU 4-12, Memphis 3-22

Fast break pts: GU 5 (0.096), Memphis 4 (0.068)
Seconds per off. poss: GU 17.3, Memphis 16.7

Memphis Preview

Georgetown gets its second ranked opponent this Saturday and its last chance to really impress before the Big East season starts, massive blowouts of overmatched opponents notwithstanding.

Given how incredibly difficult the six game run of at UConn, Pitt, at Notre Dame, Providence, Syracuse and at Duke will be, a home game versus Memphis gives the Hoyas a chance to go into those games with some breathing room. I'm not sure that having one quality win before that run will actually help the team, but it will keep the fanbase from getting too neurotic.

If nothing else, the Memphis opportunity stands out because of how isolated it is. We have five days between Savannah State and the Memphis game, and it's been two weeks since Maryland. It'll be another two weeks before the Connecticut game.

So the staff has had a little bit of time to prepare. And the only thing to look ahead to are Christmas presents.

Let's break it down, NFL-style:


When the Hoyas have the ball

The Hoyas' offense is, as usual, driven by taking great shots, which is constituted of many open threes, some looks down low and plenty of cuts to the basket. Unlike prior years, however, the Hoyas have added to their arsenal more of a driving game in the halfcourt and a fullcourt fast break offense.

The offense's weaknesses have been turning the ball over and an inability to generate second chance scores, but when the Hoyas have lost, it has almost always been because of a poor shooting day in addition to those issues. In other words, the defense that can beat us is a defense that keeps up with us, contests our shots, rebounds well and forces turnovers.

But if we're shooting well, or the opponent plays man, well, it's extremely rare that our offense doesn't completely blow our opponent away.

The good news is that Memphis is going to play a decent amount of man. The bad news is that they are physically talented enough to do so.

Memphis has a strong defense (ranked 24th) that does a good job across the board. They don't allow high shooting percentages on twos or threes, they block shots and they force turnovers via steals. They defensive rebound well.

The one thing they do have a tendency to do is foul. In fact, in their loss to Xavier (which wasn't a bad defensive game), Memphis let Xavier shoot .7 FTs for each FGA. Some of that was likely end of game positioning, but Memphis also struggled to keep Seton Hall off the line. Even Chattanooga and Marist went to the line a decent amount for cupcakes.

The Hoyas need to stay aggressive and get to the line. That's Memphis' weakness on D. And they have to watch the turnovers, because only Xavier has managed to control Memphis' pressure.


When the Tigers have the ball

Memphis is a good, but not great, offensive team. They are still athletic and quick. Shawn Taggart has done a decent job of impersonating Joey Dorsey, which a few less muscles and a few more skills.

But so far this season, they haven't been able to hit the outside shot. They are shooting under 30% for the year from three. Then again, they have players like Antonio Anderson and Doneal Mack who should be better shooters, so like the Hoyas' low percentage, that may be something of a mirage.

They also struggle to hit their free throws, even with several of last year's culprits leaving the team.

The good news is that, as a team, they don't do anything particularly well, offensively. They are decent offensive rebounding team, but not a great one. Because of the Hoyas' weakness, rebounding will of course be something to watch. But Memphis isn't anywhere near as good as they were least year, or Tennessee is, or Cincinnati, or Pitt, or you know, half the Big East.

Dozier and Taggart don't draw a lot of fouls for big men, but keeping Monroe in the game is obviously a concern. Again, it's more of a concern for what Georgetown doesn't do well rather than what Memphis does particularly well, but it is still a concern.

The Tigers beat us last year by being able to break down our defenders one on one at will. They either got good shots at the rim or got fouled or missed and had a player clean up the board. Offensively, they took us out of our game in the second half just enough to allow their offense to pull away.

This Memphis team simply isn't the same team. There's no Chris Douglas-Roberts or Derrick Rose to penetrate and dish. There's no Joey Dorsey to grab the miss. Sure, they have good replacements in Tyreke Evans and Shawn Taggart, but Evans can't replace Rose, let alone Rose and CDR. And Taggart played with Dorsey last year, so even if he performs at that level, who replaces Taggart?


In short, the Hoyas should be favored here. Calipari likely won't be dumb enough to play man to man all game, so I suspect that the Hoyas' performance to date is overrating them for this game. Still, the Hoyas are at home; they are playing well; and this Memphis team simply isn't as good or as talented as last year's version.


Memphis Tigers Basketball Blog (Blogspot)

Analysis: It's the defense, stupid

While I haven't read every post on HoyaTalk since the Memphis beat-down, I've read enough to know that there is a wide spectrum of opinion on which players performed well and which did not.

But it should be made perfectly clear that, as ugly as the 2nd half was for Georgetown, the failure was not on the offense, but entirely by the defense. I'll explain how I think I know this.


I've touched on this in a previous post, but I'll reiterate here that it is possible to evaluate team performance, using the information in KenPom.com's stats database. If you look at the Georgetown schedule page on his website, you'll see a prediction for the remaining games, as a result (W/L), score, pace and probability. However, for games completed, this information is removed (why?).

Fortunately, I've worked out enough of KenPom's system so that I can calculate the expected offensive and defensive efficiency for any team against any other team, using KenPom's adjusted OEff and DEff posted on his website. This system isn't perfect, or even close to that, since it doesn't know about injuries, suspensions, etc. on the date of any game, but it can give you a rough idea how well Georgetown should fair against any opponent, accounting for game site, if they played today.

The result is what I call performance. Here, I use KenPom's expected point spread, adjusted for the actual pace of the game, and compare it to the actual point spread of that game. That is, if the Hoyas are expected to beat Team A by 10 points, based on KenPom's stats, but actually win by 14 points, the performance for that game is +4 points. Instead of printing another table, here I'll display the results as a category plot:

What performance gives you is context - it lets you know whether a 32 point win at home against Jacksonville is impressive (it isn't), and even allows you to rank each game by how well the Hoyas played. From this plot, you can see that the season-opening William & Mary win at home by 15 points (Perf. = -12 pts.) was more of a disappointment than yesterday's loss at Memphis by 14 points (Perf. = -10 pts.).

Of course, these evaluations are exceptionally hazardous to do early in the season, since there will likely be a lot of movement by all teams in both quality of play, and the statistics ability to judge this. But, as far as crude tools go, it's not bad.


You can take this a step further, and break out performance into its two components, offense and defense. Again, I can work through the math and plot how well G'town's offense and defense performed in each game, accounting for the quality of the opposing defense or offense (respectively) and the actual game pace. That is to say, if the Hoyas are expected to score 70 points against Team B in a 63 possession game, but actually score 66 points, the offense performance for the game is -4 points; same method for defense performance. Note that offense and defense performance summed should equal overall performance, unless I've buggered up the math.

First, offense performance so far this year:

It turns out that against the vaunted Memphis defense, currently ranked #11 by KenPom, scoring 71 points in a 70 possession game was not a bad performance at all, but actually +5 points above expected.

The other, more general note, is that there appears to be a trend of improving offense as the season has progressed, although I'd be a bit hesitant to draw this conclusion until another few games have been played.


On to defense performance:

Yes, it really was that bad.

After playing the first 8 games with a defense performance in the range of -4 to +6 points, the Hoyas' defense dropped a -15 pt. performance yesterday (or, equally as valid, Memphis had a +15 point offense performance against Georgetown).

I'll leave it up to those who know more about basketball to figure out what went wrong on defense (cough, cough, rebounding, cough), and come up with suggestions on how to fix it.

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I've updated the Georgetown Season Statistics - Team and Individual Splits page through the Memphis game. There are big differences now in home/road splits, thanks to the Memphis game.


On another note, I've read many posts on HoyaTalk complaining about the perceived and/or real lack of production from this blog's favorite underdog Hoya, namely Vernon Macklin. While defensive stats are hard to come by and even harder to evaluate, right now we can see that Big Ticket has an Offensive Rating of 105, ranking near the bottom of the 9 regular players (and Chris Wright is making up ground in a hurry). We also are all painfully aware of his free-throw shooting woes (3-18 [17%] after Memphis).

Out of curiosity, I changed his free-throws made to 11-18 [61%], a pedestrian rate by any scale other than the current Hoyas, and his ORating moves to 132, which would lead the team. Quite simply, other than the execrable free throw shooting, Macklin is playing as well as we could have expected. Of course, you can't ignore FT shooting.


Finally, I'm just now getting to a brief story that Ray Floriani sent in earlier this week, summarizing the UNC/Rutgers clash.

What a difference a game makes.

On Thursday, Rutgers defeated winless NJIT at the Prudential Center in Newark.

On Sunday it was a meeting with top ranked North Carolina at the RAC. A breakdown of both games follows.

	Rutgers	NJIT
Score	65	55
Possessions	69	69
Off. Eff.	94.1	79.6
Four factors
eFG %	37	39.8
TO %	18.8	21.7
OR %	34.9	25
FT Rate	63	38.9

The game was as close as the score indicated; Rutgers led by 6 with 8 minutes remaining. The Scarlet Knights went on a tear to increase the lead to 16 before NJIT made a few late baskets for the final margin. NJIT stayed around a good part of the contest before Rutgers used their three guard set to spread the floor and take the Highlanders off the dribble. Notice the free throw rate as indicating Rutgers ability to get in the lane and ultimately get to the charity stripe.

	UNC	Rutgers
Score	93	71
Possessions	80	80
Off. Eff.	116	88.6
Four factors
eFG %	46.3	41.5
TO %	15	24.9
OR %	49	35.2
FT Rate	26.3	40

It was a faster tempo game with UNC putting the pedal to the medal. Rutgers paid dearly for their 20 turnovers, as UNC outscored the Scarlet Knights 30-10 off those miscues. The OR Rate attests to fact that Rutgers not only saw guard pressure (Ty Lawson 26 points 4 steals and several deflections ) but a formidable frontcourt (Tyler Hansbrough 20 pts 11 boards and Deon Thompson 9 boards).

Analysis: Memphis 85, Georgetown 71

. . . and it wasn't that close.

After a nice run of 8 wins to open the season, Georgetown hit its first bump in the road in the form of an old-fashioned ass-whipping courtesy of the Memphis Tigers.

With 4:41 left in the 1st half, Patrick Ewing beat the entire Memphis team down the court after a Memphis made basket and was able to convert a layup against 2 defender coming late. The score was 35-27 G'town.

Memphis proceeded to hit another gear, especially offensively, and close out the half on a 16-5 run to lead going into the lockerroom. The Hoyas had 8 possessions after Ewing's layup, shooting 1-3 2FG, 1-2 3FG, 2-4 FT, 1 OR, 2 TO, while the Tigers line was 4-4 2FG, 1-3 3FG, 3-3 FT, 2 OR, 2 Steal on 9 possessions.

This pattern occurred twice more in the 2nd half:

• (15:41 - 10:37) Memphis 13 pts. on 7 poss., GU 4 pts. on 6 poss.
• GU: 2-3 2FG, 0-1 3FG, 0-2 FT, 1 TO, 1OR
• Mem: 4-9 2FG, 1-1 3FG, 1 S, 3 OR

• (8:20 - 4:18) Memphis 14 pts. on 8 poss., GU 4 pts. on 7 poss.
• GU: 1-4 2FG, 0-2 3FG, 2-4 FT, 1 TO, 2 OR
• Mem: 4-6 2FG, 4-6 FT, 1 OR
  

And that, as they say, was the game.


Here's the tempo-free box for the game:

	Offense				Defense
	1st Half	2nd Half	Total		1st Half	2nd Half	Total
Pace	36	33	70
Eff.	109.6	92.9	101.6		117.8	125.9	121.7
eFG%	61.1%	40.6%	50.0%		57.6%	41.7%	50.0%
TO%	19.2%	15.0%	17.2%		19.2%	12.0%	15.7%
OR%	26.7%	35.0%	31.4%		43.8%	54.5%	50.0%
FTA/FGA					21.2%	73.3%	46.0%
FTM/FGA	25.9%	15.6%	20.3%
Assist Rate	73.3%	30.8%	53.6%		64.7%	41.7%	55.2%
Block Rate	10.5%	11.5%	11.1%		13.6%	7.7%	10.4%
Steal Rate	8.2%	3.0%	5.7%		13.7%	6.0%	10.0%

Georgetown vs Memphis  
12/22/07 11:00 am at Memphis, Tenn. (FedExForum)  
Final score: Memphis 85, Georgetown 71

Georgetown              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF  
Summers, DaJuan        32:48  - 13 13/58 2 -5  2 -6  3 -9  11/51 1 /19 1 /59 0 /58 1 /40 1 /31 5 /35  2   
Ewing, Patrick         20:18  - 11 10/31 3 -3  0 -1  4 -4  4 /23 1 /8  1 /34 1 /34 0 /24 2 /14 2 /18  3   
Hibbert, Roy           27:09  - 9  6 /47 3 -8  0 -0  0 -0  8 /42 2 /15 0 /49 3 /50 2 /31 2 /25 4 /28  4   
Wallace, Jonathan      24:26  + 4  8 /50 3 -4  0 -1  2 -2  5 /42 6 /17 0 /41 0 /44 0 /26 0 /23 1 /24  3   
Sapp, Jessie           23:50  - 22 5 /31 2 -6  0 -2  1 -1  8 /30 1 /10 2 /45 3 /41 0 /31 1 /21 0 /25  3   
Macklin, Vernon        11:57  - 2  4 /24 2 -3  0 -0  0 -4  3 /16 0 /8  0 /18 0 /19 2 /16 1 /9  1 /11  0   
Wright, Chris          16:34  - 6  9 /33 4 -6  0 -1  1 -1  7 /27 3 /8  2 /28 0 /31 0 /20 0 /17 0 /13  3   
Rivers, Jeremiah       16:26  - 8  2 /29 1 -4  0 -0  0 -0  4 /20 0 /11 0 /27 2 /27 0 /22 0 /10 2 /17  1   
Freeman, Austin        26:04  - 3  14/52 5 -6  1 -3  1 -2  9 /43 1 /16 1 /44 2 /45 0 /30 2 /24 2 /24  2   
Crawford, Tyler        00:28  + 0  0 /0  0 -0  0 -0  0 -0  0 /1  0 /0  0 /0  0 /1  0 /0  0 /1  0 /0   0   
TOTALS                 40:00       71    25-45 3 -14 12-23    59 15/28 7 /69 12/70 5 /48 11/35 19/38  21  
.                                        0.556 0.214 0.522       0.536 0.101 0.171 0.104 0.314 0.500      

Memphis                 Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF  
DOZIER, Robert         36:15  + 17 19/81 5 -11 1 -1  6 -6  12/57 1 /21 1 /66 0 /63 0 /43 3 /35 3 /34  3   
DORSEY, Joey           27:54  + 8  11/51 5 -10 0 -0  1 -4  10/42 0 /11 0 /46 3 /46 3 /32 8 /31 5 /25  4   
ANDERSON, Antonio      32:26  + 13 7 /70 2 -4  1 -4  0 -0  8 /51 5 /19 2 /58 1 /57 1 /36 1 /34 3 /29  3   
DOUGLAS-ROBERTS, C     36:04  + 17 24/81 6 -11 1 -2  9 -12 13/58 2 /21 1 /65 2 /64 1 /42 2 /35 6 /33  1   
ROSE, Derrick          36:17  + 18 18/82 3 -9  2 -6  6 -7  15/59 6 /23 0 /65 4 /63 0 /43 1 /35 2 /34  0   
TAGGART, Shawn         07:41  - 9  4 /10 2 -2  0 -0  0 -0  2 /10 0 /3  0 /13 0 /14 0 /7  1 /5  0 /5   3   
KEMP, Willie           07:25  + 4  2 /15 1 -1  0 -0  0 -0  1 /13 2 /6  0 /11 0 /12 0 /7  0 /6  1 /6   0   
NILES, Pierre          03:37  + 1  0 /13 0 -0  0 -0  0 -0  0 /7  0 /4  0 /8  0 /6  0 /4  0 /3  0 /2   1   
ALLEN, Andre           05:27  - 4  0 /5  0 -0  0 -1  0 -0  1 /6  0 /1  0 /7  0 /7  0 /4  0 /6  0 /2   0   
MACK, Doneal           03:24  - 2  0 /6  0 -0  0 -0  0 -0  0 /5  0 /3  0 /6  1 /6  0 /3  0 /2  0 /2   0   
ROBINSON, Jeff         03:20  + 5  0 /9  0 -0  0 -1  0 -0  1 /7  0 /4  0 /5  0 /6  0 /4  0 /3  1 /3   0   
BAILEY, Hashim         00:10  + 2  0 /2  0 -0  0 -0  0 -0  0 /0  0 /0  0 /0  0 /1  0 /0  0 /0  0 /0   0   
TOTALS                 40:00       85    24-48 5 -15 22-29    63 16/29 4 /70 11/69 5 /45 19/38 24/35  15  
.                                        0.500 0.333 0.759       0.552 0.057 0.159 0.111 0.500 0.686      

Efficiency: Memphis 1.232, Georgetown 1.014
eFG%: Memphis 0.500, Georgetown 0.500
Substitutions: Memphis 24, Georgetown 37

2-pt Shot Selection:  
Dunks: Memphis 4-4, Georgetown 2-2
Layups/Tips: Memphis 12-21, Georgetown 18-32
Jumpers: Memphis 8-23, Georgetown 5-11

• The 70-possession pace was tilted slightly towards the Tigers liking - Georgetown had an adj. pace of ~64 coming into the game, Memphis at ~75 - but not an up-and-down track meet by any stretch.
• At first glance, shooting accuracy does not appear to be a big difference - both teams shot 50% eFG for the game. However, the Hoyas came into the game leading the nation at 60.2 eFG%, while the Tigers "only" shot at 53.9% before the tip. In effect, Memphis was able to drag G'town shooting accuracy down to their level.
• Georgetown shot 11-23 (48%) FT for the game, somewhat below their season average [58.0%] while Memphis was 22-29 (76%), well above theirs [57.6%].
• Memphis, and in large part Joey Dorsey, rebounded half of their own misses.
• In spite of the beatdown, Georgetown turned the ball over less than 20% of the time, which is generally considered the good/bad breakpoint.

Well, that's about all for tonight. Don't think I'll have the heart to put together a highlight package for this one. I'll try to post Ray Floriani's Rutgers/UNC game report tomorrow.

Preview - Memphis Tigers

Borrowing a page from VBTN, I thought I'd put together a preview for Saturday's big game between Georgetown and the Memphis Tigers in the Fedex Forum (12:00 noon EST, TV: ESPN). I have a UNC/Rutgers game report from Ray Floriani way overdue in my inbox, hope to have it posted tomorrow.

While Saturday's game will likely be the highest ranked OOC matchup for the basketball season, the hype outside of Memphis and Washington has been surprisingly subdued, likely due to the timing (a noon game the weekend before Christmas).

Preseason Rumpus

Memphis was the pre-season #3 ranked team by both the coaches and writers, and moved to their current #2 rank the first week of December after UCLA's loss to Texas. In CSTV.com's season preview (Memphis #2), Joel Wesler argues that Memphis has 6 players who could make a legitimate argument for starting at the 1-3 positions (he has Dozier and Dorsey as locks at 4-5). Basketball Prospectus notes that the Tigers returning players used 83.4% minutes on last year's Elite 8 team. John Gasaway focuses on Memphis undeniable strength:

The Tigers are sometimes regarded as an unstoppable team loaded with NBA-level talent, one that can score virtually at will. That characterization isn’t entirely off the mark, yet like Kansas, the real story with this loaded team is its defense. It’s excellent . . .

Memphis simply shuts down the perimeter completely. It defends from the outside in and does so beautifully. The Tigers make you turn the ball over and, on those relatively infrequent possessions when you don’t, they make you miss your shot, whether it’s from outside or in close.

Meet the Tigers

The aforementioned 6-man wrecking crew in the backcourt is lead by deservedly-hyped freshman Derrick Rose (6' 4") and returning junior Chris Douglas-Roberts [d/b/a CDR] (6' 6"), who each use more than 25% of Tiger possessions when on the court - 9th man sophomore Doneal Mack (6' 5") is the only other Memphis player who uses more than 20%. Mack was tabbed pre-season to take up the outside shooting slack left by the Jeremy Hunt (38% on 3FG last year), but CDR and sophomore Willie Kemp (6' 2") are doing the best job currently, both at 45% on 3FG. Nominal point guard Andre Allen (5' 10") and defensive specialist Antonio Anderson (6' 6") round out the back court.

Last year, Memphis had primarily a 2-man front court, with senior Joey Dorsey (6' 9") as the quintessential undersized college center scoring primarily off of offensive rebounds, and junior Robert Dozier (6' 9") as Mr. Versatile. This year, the Tigers have added Iowa State transfer Shawn Taggart (6' 10"), a very selective and efficient shooter and reliable rebounder.


When Memphis has the Ball

To be clear, Memphis is a competent, but not strong, offensive team so far this season (Adj. OEff = 106.8, [91/341]). While at first glance the Tigers' offensive may look "playground," they are actually running a structured system known as AASAA (= "Attack, Attack, Skip, Attack, Attack), as devised by Pepperdine's Vance Walberg and adopted by John Calapari (and renamed the "Dribble Drive Motion" offense). I make no claim to understand the "Princeton Offense on Steroids" scheme, but the basic concept is to have a wing/guard drive the ball towards the basket, and kick to an open 3-pt shooter if the defense collapses or continue to the hoop if possible.

The team is great on 2-pt shooting, thanks in no small part to Joey Dorsey's 21-23 (91%) on 2FGA, but not very good from the outside (33.5% 3FG [217/341]). Since the offense is predicated, in part, on making those outside shots, it is understandable that the offensive efficiency suffers. So far this season, Memphis takes about 40% of all shots from behind the arc.

As for the remaining 3 factors, the Tigers value the ball well (TO% = 20.5% [93/341]) and crash the offensive glass (OR% = 38.0% [51/341]), but are fairly miserable from the FT line (57.6%, 331/341).

I haven't mentioned pace yet. Memphis likes to run up and down the floor, to the tune of 74+ possessions/game [27/341]. While most assume that a track-meet type game would strongly favor the Tigers, this isn't necessarily the case. KenPom finds that their offensive efficiency is only weakly positively correlated with pace so far this season, and their defensive efficiency also correlates positively with pace, and in fact more strongly. That is to say, as game pace increases Memphis is slightly more efficient on offense, but give up efficiency on defense at a greater clip.


When Georgetown has the Ball

An interesting note appeared in a column posted recently on Basketball Prospectus, "no team that got a top three seed in the NCAA Tournament last season had a starter with an offensive rating under 100." After their win as Cincinnati, Memphis starter Antonio Anderson sports a woeful 81.9 ORating.

Why isn't John Calapari worried? Because Antonio Anderson is a primary reason for the stellar Memphis defense so far this season (Adj. DEff = 84.9 [14/341]) and last (86.9 [11/336]). In fact, Memphis is a fine example where the dearth of individual defensive stats can fool stat-heads into devaluing a number of the Tiger players.

For the Tigers, and for most teams, defensive efficiency is strongly tied to their opponents' eFG%, and Memphis does a great job defending both 3FG (31.4% [74/341]) and especially 2FG (41.0% [21/341]). How do they do it? Regarding defending the arc, in addition to being quick, their back court players are exceptionally tall across the board - just take a look at the heights I posted above. And the team is top 10 in blocking opponents 2FGs, up slightly from last year likely to the extra help that Taggart now provides to exceptional duo of Dorsey and Dozier.



Well, that's all for now - it's getting late and I've got to work tomorrow. Hopefully, I got at least one salient point correct, and would love to hear from any savvy Memphis fans on what I got wrong.