Friday, July 6, 2007
Update: Torrent available for NCAA Vandy game
You can find the torrent file here.
File is a .wmv (Windows Media Player), 640 x 480, 1.13 GB. It runs about 1 hr, 20 minutes (I edited out most of the commercials).
Enjoy.
Saturday, March 24, 2007
A Look Back and a Glimpse of What's To Come
• In the first meeting this season, Georgetown was able to get the ball inside with impunity early in the game. Whether the Hoyas were deterred by an (atrocious) early charge call on Hibbert or by Vandy's defenders, GU did not get the ball down low where they are most effective until the early going of the second half. As soon as Georgetown did so, that eight-point Vandy halftime lead disappeared in a hurry.
• Foul shooting was poor at best, with the Hoyas missing 6 of 14 free throw attempts. The effort was well below GU's usual 71.6% clip. Those were six big points that nearly sent the Hoyas packing.
At first glance it appears that next round's outcome will be decided by the pace of the game. If GU can slow the pace down into a half court game, the Hoyas will likely prevail. If the Heels get out and run, UNC likely moves on. But if the NCAA Tournament has proven anything over the years, it's that nothing is guaranteed.
North Carolina and its No. 2 ranked offense rely heavily on transition baskets for the majority of its points. When the Heels do get into a half court set, they usually look inside to freshman Brandan Wright or Tyler Hansbrough, where their size and strength usually translate to points in the paint. Against the Hoyas and Roy Hibbert, that advantage disappears and if the Hoyas can force the Heels to shoot from behind the arc (where UNC ranks 240th in 3-pointers made) GU will have a tremendous advantage. But that all starts by the Hoyas not turning the ball over and getting back on defense. If Jesse Sapp and Jonathan Wallace start turning the ball over, it will be a long day for the Hoyas, as every turnover at the top of the key will probably equate to two Tar Heel points.
Defensively, Georgetown needs to be patient and try to cut off dribble penetration. Look for a lot of zone defense from the Hoyas tomorrow. If they go man to man, or even a matchup zone and start chasing players like they did in the first half against Vanderbilt, North Carolina will make them pay.
This game more than ever it seems it will be important for the Hoyas to go inside early. While North Carolina is deep, Hansbrough and Wright are their only players capable of hanging with Hibbert and Green in the post. If the Hoyas can force one or both to the bench with early foul trouble, the Hoyas will exploit it all day. Of course, that cuts both ways. If Hibbert is forced to the bench, it will be a lot to ask for either Patrick Ewing Jr. to body up on Hansbrough or for Vernon Macklin to hang with Brandan Wright.
Despite the vastly contrasting styles, the Elite 8 game at the Meadowlands on Sunday should be evenly matched, and presumably one of the best games the Tournament could produce from here on out. The only thing for certain is that for all of the talent on the floor tomorrow, Billy Packer will be able to find 40-minutes worth of flaws. THAT I guarantee.
Recap: Our man Floriani
EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - Forty minutes away ! Georgetown survived an outstanding effort by Vanderbilt to move on to the regional final against North Carolina. Game time is 5:05 pm on Sunday.Georgetown 66 Vanderbilt 65The keys to the Hoya victory:Coming in, Georgetown coach John Thompson III was concerned with Vanderbilt’s perimeter game. After trailing early, the SEC reps started firing up from the perimeter and built a double digit lead midway through the first half. Quick ball reversal and/or kick outs to the perimeter left the Commodores with some outstanding looks; Vanderbilt shot 46 % during the first half (40% from 3).
- Better defense
- Poise while trailing by double digits
- Jeff Green
The Hoyas stuck to a philosophy they used against Notre Dame two weeks ago: don’t try to get the deficit trimmed in a minute; take it possession by possession.
One way they did it was to come out a little harder defensively to afford Vanderbilt less room on the perimeter. During the final 20 minutes, the Commodores cooled down to 36 % from the field and 25% beyond the arc. Hoyas just did a better job of ball pressure and locating shooters.
Offensively the Hoyas also made an effort to look inside a little more. Roy Hibbert had but three points in the 1st half, all the last six minutes. He finished with 12 and asserted himself inside the final half. Vanderbilt’s 6’11" center Ted Skuchas was soon saddled with foul trouble; the Commodores simply showed more 2-3 and packed it in.
With the Hoyas trailing by one and the season on the line, Jeff Green showed why he is Big East Player of the Year and one of the nation’s best talents.
Thompson called for two cutters to the high post and look for a back door. “I told Jeff if he gets it and can’t find Patrick [Ewing Jr.], to take it himself.” Green told the media he got the ball high, found the cutting Ewing covered and took it on a spin move. “I was double-teamed and just went up hard and sent it off the glass.” Green’s shot kissed the backboard and fell through. “I think he was more triple- rather than double-teamed on that shot,” Thompson added.
Green and DaJuan Summers had 15 pts. each for Georgetown. Dan Cage and SEC Player of the Year Derrick Byars led all with 17 points.
North Carolina 74 USC 64
USC led by 9 at the break and increased it to 18 early second half. Hoya fans were backing the Trojans - rooting for the lower seed, plus the Song Girls were near the Georgetown section. How could they not root for the SC Song Girls?
Carolina regrouped much the same way Georgetown did: take it possession by possession and don’t panic.
Taj Gibson (16 pts., 12 rebs.) was hit with second half foul trouble. Gibson is USC’s inside presence, but his absence didn’t entirely explain the collapse - Southern Cal went 9 of 27 from the field in the second half. The Tar Heels pounded USC on the offensive boards and ran. Trojans also rushed some shots and took some ill-advised attempts. Limiting the offensive boards and stopping transition will be keys for the Hoyas Sunday.
Tyler Hansbrough was asked the significance of Georgetown meeting North Carolina a quarter century ago. “I watched the video of that (‘82) championship game,” Hansbrough said. “I know it was a great game and we have (Carolina) players from that team come to our games. It's a big part of tradition."
A great answer at 12:25 a.m.
Analysis: A Tale of 2 Halves (Sweet 16 edition)
Here are the numbers (from this box score):
Stat | 1st | 2nd | Full |
Pace | 29 | 28 | 57 |
OEff | 83.5 | 150.3 | 116.4 |
eFG% | 37.5% | 62.5% | 51.8% |
TO% | 24.3% | 14.3% | 19.4% |
OR% | 41.2% | 56.3% | 48.5% |
FTM/FGA | 25.0% | 6.3% | 14.3% |
DEff | 111.3 | 118.1 | 114.6 |
eFG% | 57.7% | 42.0% | 50.0% |
TO% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 8.8% |
OR% | 13.3% | 44.4% | 29.4% |
FTA/FGA | 15.4% | 64.0% | 39.2% |
The difference between halves for Georgetown is incredible; significant improvement in the first 3 factors lead to an 80% increase in offensive efficiency. JTIII's ability to make adjustments at halftime is what is keeping the Hoyas alive in the tournament.
Vanderbilt played smart, valuing the ball in a slow-paced game (5 TOs for the whole game!). Vanderbilt's shooting cooled in the 2nd half, but the team did a great job on the offensive glass to keep in the contest (also note the lopsided foul-shooting in the 2nd half - I wonder, if Green had missed that final shot, how many commentators would have pointed out the one-sided officiating favoring Vanderbilt?).
Individual player notes:
- After playing only 4 minutes in the 2nd half against BC, Dajuan Summers played the entire 2nd half last night, hitting 3 of 4 3-pt. attempts.
- Jeff Green (PPWS = 1.31) and Roy Hibbert (1.35) were their typical efficient selves; but Jon Wallace (1st half = 0.00, 2nd = 1.33) and Jessie Sapp (0.17, 0.91) cannot repeat their 1st half performances if G'town is to have a chance against UNC.
- Hats off to Dan Cage (1.32) and Ross Neltner (1.65) of Vandy for stepping up when Derrick Byars (0.83, 1.43) had a quiet 1st half and Shan Foster (1.29, 0.67) had a quiet 2nd half.
See also Jon Solomon's nice bit about the history of the last play.
Friday, March 23, 2007
News: Hoyas Win! Hoyas Win! On to the Elite 8
The last seconds, Chvotkin-style (higher-quality version here):
Georgetown faces UNC on Sunday.
Here's the HD box score for the game:
Vanderbilt vs Georgetown
03/23/07 7:27 at Continental Airlines Arena E. Rutherford
Final score: Georgetown 66, Vanderbilt 65
Vanderbilt Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF
BYARS, Derrick 37:54 + 4 17/65 2 -5 3 -7 4 -5 12/48 5 /16 1 /54 1 /54 0 /36 1 /30 0 /33 2
FOSTER, Shan 38:10 + 6 16/65 5 -11 2 -6 0 -1 17/50 1 /14 0 /54 2 /54 0 /35 0 /31 3 /34 3
NELTNER, Ross 34:19 - 2 8 /57 2 -2 0 -0 4 -6 2 /42 3 /16 1 /50 1 /48 1 /33 2 /27 4 /27 1
GORDON, Alex 26:23 - 9 3 /38 0 -1 1 -7 0 -0 8 /36 2 /11 0 /39 0 /40 0 /29 0 /26 1 /23 2
CAGE, Dan 37:50 - 6 17/60 1 -3 3 -7 6 -6 10/49 4 /15 3 /55 0 /55 2 /37 2 /33 4 /32 2
BEAL, Jermaine 13:37 + 8 2 /27 1 -1 0 -0 0 -0 1 /15 2 /8 0 /18 0 /17 1 /8 1 /7 0 /11 1
BROWN, JeJuan 02:06 - 5 0 /0 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0 0 /3 0 /0 0 /3 0 /3 0 /1 0 /3 0 /1 1
SKUCHAS, Ted 09:41 - 1 2 /13 1 -1 0 -0 0 -2 1 /12 0 /4 0 /12 1 /14 0 /6 0 /8 2 /9 4
TOTALS 40:00 65 12-24 9 -27 14-20 51 17/21 5 /57 5 /57 4 /37 8 /32 18/34 16
0.500 0.333 0.700 0.810 0.088 0.088 0.108 0.250 0.529
Georgetown Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF
Summers, DaJuan 33:39 + 4 15/59 2 -9 3 -4 2 -4 13/49 3 /17 0 /49 3 /49 2 /21 3 /30 4 /30 1
Green, Jeff 39:54 + 1 15/66 7 -9 0 -2 1 -1 11/56 3 /18 1 /57 1 /57 0 /24 3 /34 1 /33 3
Hibbert, Roy 28:34 + 17 12/56 5 -7 0 -0 2 -4 7 /46 0 /17 1 /37 2 /42 0 /19 5 /26 5 /26 5
Wallace, Jonathan 33:34 + 1 8 /58 1 -3 2 -5 0 -0 8 /47 4 /19 0 /50 0 /50 0 /22 1 /28 2 /29 1
Sapp, Jessie 35:14 + 2 6 /61 1 -5 1 -5 1 -3 10/50 3 /21 1 /51 1 /52 1 /21 0 /30 5 /30 3
Rivers, Jeremiah 05:48 + 1 0 /8 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0 0 /8 0 /3 0 /7 0 /6 0 /2 1 /5 0 /4 0
Crawford, Tyler 07:45 - 7 3 /5 0 -0 1 -2 0 -0 2 /9 0 /1 0 /9 1 /9 0 /4 1 /7 1 /4 2
Ewing, Patrick 15:32 - 14 7 /17 1 -4 1 -1 2 -2 5 /15 1 /4 0 /25 3 /20 0 /7 1 /10 2 /9 3
TOTALS 40:00 66 17-37 8 -19 8 -14 56 14/25 3 /57 11/57 3 /24 16/34 24/32 18
0.459 0.421 0.571 0.560 0.053 0.193 0.125 0.471 0.750
Efficiency: Georgetown 1.158, Vanderbilt 1.140
eFG%: Georgetown 0.518, Vanderbilt 0.500
Substitutions: Georgetown 27, Vanderbilt 14
2-pt Shot Selection:
Dunks: Georgetown 3-3, Vanderbilt 1-1
Layups/Tips: Georgetown 9-23, Vanderbilt 6-11
Jumpers: Georgetown 5-11, Vanderbilt 5-12
Check this post on Yet Another Basketball Blog for a nice breakdown of the game.
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
Analysis: Floriani gets analytical
"A little note from a statistical perspective.
A quick rundown on the
Roy Hibbert | 0.804 |
Jeff Green | 0.699 |
DaJuan Summers | 0.517 |
Patrick Ewing | 0.482 |
Jonathan Wallace | 0.472 |
Jessie Sapp | 0.470 |
Vernon Macklin | 0.439 |
Jeremiah Rivers | 0.221 |
What do these numbers mean ? Linton set up a scale in his book. A quick breakdown:
1.000+ | Superstar |
.900 - .999 | Stars |
.800 - .899 | Very Good |
.600 - .799 | Good |
Under .600 | Average |
You can do these evaluations at halftime and for a game. My own opinion is Linton is a bit tough on the upper rankings. In doing these calculations for about a decade I found .900 or greater a tough mark to reach. Labeling Jeff Green as just ‘good’ is a stretch. Still, the formula is not a final say. It’s another tool of analysis that will hopefully broaden our insight."
My own comments
My usual mantra when presented a stat like this is that, since it based per minute rather than per possession, you end up punishing players in slow-tempo offenses (like Georgetown's). I think this what is causing the difference between the individual player stats and scaled rankings, which, I believe, are based on NBA players. A quick glance at some stats over at 82games.com indicates that NBA games averaged ~92 possessions in 2004-5. Since the Hoyas play about 60 possessions per game, you could reduce the scale to 2/3 (≈60/92) to make a comparison:
Edit - a reader (I have a reader!!) noted that I forgot to account for the difference in minutes played between college and the NBA (40 vs. 48), so I've adjusted the table accordingly
.782+ | Superstar |
.704 - .782 | Stars |
.626 - .704 | Very Good |
.469 - .626 | Good |
Under .469 | Average |
Now this looks reasonable:
- Roy and Jeff are the Superstars that Ray wants them to be (with the edit, Jeff slides down just under the division into "Very Good" category)
- Almost all of the remaining players are now coming in as "Good", with Dajuan threatening "Very Good" (now the next four are solid "Goods" - sorry Dajuan)
- J. Rivers is once again getting hammered, as it's an offensive metric
Having said all of that, I have to admit that this is a fun stat. Of course, by working in possessions, rather than minutes, it makes it a bit harder to work out on-the-fly.
For kicks, I thought I'd run Vanderbilt's 10+ minute players, but to make the two teams comparable, I've scaled their EF's by 60/68 (the ratio of avg. possessions for G'town and Vandy, respectively). Also note that I'm using full season stats here, as I don't have access to SEC-only, so these may be a bit inflated by cupcake games.
Byars, Derrick | 0.691 |
Foster, Shan | 0.615 |
Neltner, Ross | 0.600 |
Cage, Dan | 0.508 |
Gordon, Alex | 0.482 |
Skuchas, Ted | 0.421 |
Drake, George | 0.405 |
Brown, JeJuan | 0.401 |
Beal, Jermaine | 0.363 |
Other news
Following on the news of Joe Scott's departure from Princeton and the resulting rumors surrounding certain G'town assistant coaches, it appears that Coach Kevin Broadus has landed a head coaching job at Binghamton University. The Bearcats were previously coached by Al Walker, who resigned on March 5th.
Congratulations to Coach Broadus!
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
Off day
Go read this Vanderbilt blog instead.
Well, I should point out that Joe Scott left Princeton today to take the University of Denver (!) job. Check princetonbasketball.com for more info, and the Princeton message board for rumors and general hysteria. Expect at least one of the G'town assistant coaches to be a candidate to replace Scott at Princeton.
Monday, March 19, 2007
Roundup: Our man in NJ, and other stuff
First, Ray Floriani checks in with another missive:
"The Sweet 16 comes to New Jersey. Georgetown faces Vanderbilt in game one at Continental Airlines Arena on Friday and now is a good time to discuss a few general facts about the SEC opposition.
This will be Vandy’s fourth trip to the Sweet 16.The most recent appearance was 2004. The school, located in Nashville, Tennessee actually was named after one of its prime benefactors, Cornelius Vanderbilt who donated one million dollars to fund the ‘academic gem of the Southeast.’ Vanderbilt opened its doors in 1873. Vanderbilt was also the first Southeast Conference school to play basketball and the first to field an African-American basketball player, Perry Wallace in 1967.
Vanderbilt plays in 14,000+ Memorial Gym which opened its doors in 1952 and has undergone several upgrades. The Commodore nickname has nothing to do with Lionel Richie. It came as a result of the school’s founder, Cornelius Vanderbilt’s love of steamboats.
Famous people in the program with over 1300 wins and an NIT (1990) Championship on the resume:
- Roy Skinner – coached in the ‘60s and ‘70s and rang up 278 wins.
- C.M. Newton – Best known for his days on the Alabama sideline, Newton put together a 129-115 record during his eight years (1982-89) in Nashville.
- Phil Cox – Scored over 1700 points during the ‘80s.
- Clyde Lee – A Vandy great in the 60’s, the 6’11’ Lee was a two time SEC Player of the Year who went on to a ten year NBA career.
- Will Purdue – Played in the late Eighties and developed into an outstanding big man. Purdue got a few NBA rings playing in Chicago with a gentleman by the name of Michael Jordan.
- Matt Freije – The school’s all time leading scorer with 1891 points, the 6’10 Freije played sparingly with Atlanta.
- Eddie Fogler – Guided the Commodores to the ’90 NIT title.
- Jan Van Breda Kolff – As a St.Bonaventure alum, even typing his name sickens me. But fair is fair. Van Breda Kolff was ’74 SEC Player of the Year and had a respectable pro career. He later coached at Vandy with a 104-81 mark for 6 seasons and a ’94 NIT runnerup.
In other news:
- First, Dan Steinberg concedes a lack of coverage of the Hoyas in the Post. Then, a HoyaTalk poster receives a remarkably unprofessional e-mail response from the Post. What's next? Pistols at dawn?
- There is a very nice blog on Vanderbilt (and SEC) statistical analysis. Unfortunately, it hasn't been updated in a month or so. Lousy timing.
- KenPom updates his log5 stats for the Sweet 16.
- JTIII was named one of four finalists for the Naismith Men's College Coach of the Year.
- According to this post on MDVarsity.com, congratulations are in order for recruits Austin Freeman, Chris Wright and Jason Clark for making 1st team All-Met.
Sunday, March 18, 2007
Analysis: Comparing Halves
Stat | 1st | 2nd | Full |
Pace | 27 | 25 | 52 |
OEff | 96.8 | 145.2 | 120.0 |
eFG% | 41.7% | 50.0% | 46.2% |
TO% | 18.6% | 20.2% | 19.4% |
OR% | 33.3% | 63.2% | 50.0% |
FTM/FGA | 25.0% | 28.6% | 26.9% |
DEff | 111.7 | 100.8 | 106.5 |
eFG% | 53.8% | 34.5% | 43.6% |
TO% | 21.9% | 11.8% | 17.1% |
OR% | 43.8% | 42.9% | 43.2% |
FTA/FGA | 19.2% | 20.7% | 20.0% |
Coming into the game, we had heard that Boston College had a nice offense, especially when their big 3 of Dudley (PPWS: 1.46, 1.11, 1.23 [1st, 2nd, full]), Rice (1.71, 1.12, 1.38) and Marshall (1.00, 0, 0.60) are going off. Since the rest of the team only accounted for 5 pts (all by Blair), the 2nd half shut down of Marshall (0-6 FG, 1 OR, 1 TO) caused the improvement in the Hoyas' defensive efficiency, although it also helped that Rice stopped hitting 30-ft. shots. The only significant improvement in the four factors is the drop in eFG%.
We had also heard that BC was not a great defensive team, but after starting the game 5-5, BC's switch to a 1-3-1 defense put the kibosh on G'town's vaunted offense, keeping them well below their season average efficiency. What changed in the 2nd half was a domination of the offensive boards (rebounding nearly 2/3 of missed own shots), which kicked the offensive efficiency into the stratosphere.
A growing concern is defensive glass, where Georgetown has once again allowed a team to rebound well above their season average; BC came in getting 38% off. rebounds. Vanderbilt is a lousy rebounding team, (OR = 29.7%, Rank = 282), but have rebounded above average, and better than their opponents, in their 2 tourney wins. That aspect will bear watching.
Saturday, March 17, 2007
News: Hoyas Win! Move on to Sweet 16
Endgame highlights (higher res. version here)
This Friday in the Meadowlands, the Hoyas will face Vanderbilt, who upset Washington St. in a double-overtime thriller.
Vanderbilt and Georgetown have already played this year, way back in November. The Hoyas were able to win that game convincingly, but that performance won't necessarily translate into a repeat on Friday:
- The game was a statistical anomaly for G'town this season, as previously noted (scroll down). It was Vanderbilt's first game of the season, and Georgetown's second.
- Perhaps the biggest key in that game was Marc Egerson's defense against Shan Foster, holding him without a field goal.
More post-game analysis tomorrow; a look ahead at Vanderbilt later this week.