Analysis: Floriani gets analytical

Ray Floriani, our man in N.J., checks in again with a stats bent:

"A little note from a statistical perspective.

In the late 90s, Arthur Linton authored the book, How To Grade And Rank Every Basketballer In History. The book deals with a formula to find the best players and distinguish various levels of expertise. The result is the EF (effectiveness factor). The abbreviated formula which allows for quick in game calculations on the bench is

(PTS + REB + Assists + Blocked Shots + Steals) – Turnovers = Total

Total/Minutes Played = EF

A quick rundown on the Georgetown players who averaged over 10 minutes per game follows. Statistics used were for Big East Conference games only. I like to use conference stats because you can get a better ‘read’ as a player (especially in the Big East) is challenged virtually every night out.

Roy Hibbert	0.804
Jeff Green	0.699
DaJuan Summers	0.517
Patrick Ewing	0.482
Jonathan Wallace	0.472
Jessie Sapp	0.470
Vernon Macklin	0.439
Jeremiah Rivers	0.221

What do these numbers mean ? Linton set up a scale in his book. A quick breakdown:

1.000+	Superstar
.900 - .999	Stars
.800 - .899	Very Good
.600 - .799	Good
Under .600	Average

You can do these evaluations at halftime and for a game. My own opinion is Linton is a bit tough on the upper rankings. In doing these calculations for about a decade I found .900 or greater a tough mark to reach. Labeling Jeff Green as just ‘good’ is a stretch. Still, the formula is not a final say. It’s another tool of analysis that will hopefully broaden our insight."


My own comments
My usual mantra when presented a stat like this is that, since it based per minute rather than per possession, you end up punishing players in slow-tempo offenses (like Georgetown's). I think this what is causing the difference between the individual player stats and scaled rankings, which, I believe, are based on NBA players. A quick glance at some stats over at 82games.com indicates that NBA games averaged ~92 possessions in 2004-5. Since the Hoyas play about 60 possessions per game, you could reduce the scale to 2/3 (≈60/92) to make a comparison:

Edit - a reader (I have a reader!!) noted that I forgot to account for the difference in minutes played between college and the NBA (40 vs. 48), so I've adjusted the table accordingly

.782+	Superstar
.704 - .782	Stars
.626 - .704	Very Good
.469 - .626	Good
Under .469	Average

Now this looks reasonable:

• Roy and Jeff are the Superstars that Ray wants them to be (with the edit, Jeff slides down just under the division into "Very Good" category)
  
• Almost all of the remaining players are now coming in as "Good", with Dajuan threatening "Very Good" (now the next four are solid "Goods" - sorry Dajuan)
  
• J. Rivers is once again getting hammered, as it's an offensive metric

Having said all of that, I have to admit that this is a fun stat. Of course, by working in possessions, rather than minutes, it makes it a bit harder to work out on-the-fly.

For kicks, I thought I'd run Vanderbilt's 10+ minute players, but to make the two teams comparable, I've scaled their EF's by 60/68 (the ratio of avg. possessions for G'town and Vandy, respectively). Also note that I'm using full season stats here, as I don't have access to SEC-only, so these may be a bit inflated by cupcake games.

Byars, Derrick	0.691
Foster, Shan	0.615
Neltner, Ross	0.600
Cage, Dan	0.508
Gordon, Alex	0.482
Skuchas, Ted	0.421
Drake, George	0.405
Brown, JeJuan	0.401
Beal, Jermaine	0.363

Other news
Following on the news of Joe Scott's departure from Princeton and the resulting rumors surrounding certain G'town assistant coaches, it appears that Coach Kevin Broadus has landed a head coaching job at Binghamton University. The Bearcats were previously coached by Al Walker, who resigned on March 5th.

Congratulations to Coach Broadus!