Analysis: Log5 predictions for the BET

Ken Pomeroy used to post the likelihood for each team to win it's conference championship, based on his team ratings and the log5 method.

At some point along the way, Ken's gotten fat and lazy, so now he only posts these predictions when someone bothers to do the math themselves and send him the results.

I went ahead and ran the numbers for the BET. It's a bit of a pain-in-the-ass to do in an Excel spreadsheet, so there may be a mistake somewhere in these numbers. I did a sum check (the sum of the probabilities for each round should equal the total wins available) which looked good, but I make no warranty.

The other thing I took away from this exercise the the precarious nature of these sort of predictions - Ken Pomeroy's system has no idea of the status of Jerel McNeal's thumb.

Seed Team Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 1 Georgetown 100% 72.1 51.6 34.3 2 Louisville 100 67.6 33.3 14.8 3 Pittsburgh 100 67.6 40.9 20.3 4 Notre Dame 100 62.2 23.8 11.6 5 Syracuse 54.4 21.6 6.3 2.5 6 Marquette 85.1 31 14.6 5.4 7 West Virginia 66.1 24.6 9.1 2.9 8 DePaul 34.3 6.8 2.6 0.9 9 Villanova 65.7 21.1 11.5 5.6 10 Providence 33.9 7.9 1.8 0.4 11 St. John's 14.9 1.4 0.2 0.02 12 Connecticut 45.6 16.2 4.2 1.5