It's way too early to start looking at stats

http://www.savagechickens.com/2009/03/love-stats.html

But I've started to wake up the stats pages anyway (if you're new here, the stats pages are linked at the tool bar at the top of the page).

Right now, I've got the team and player advanced stats, along with player plus/minus and shot selection up and running.  Let's wait until next weekend (after the 'Bama game) to wake up the plots for net points and the performance charts - I do have the table on the net points page live, though.

The stats pages will get updated weekly, depending upon what else is going on with my schedule.  Now that Ken Pomeroy has moved most of his site behind a pay wall, I suspect that the pages here will be in bit higher demand.  Feel free to prod me (e-mail is at the upper-right) if you just can't wait for something.  Also, do let us know if you see a mistake, don't understand what a stat means, or have just thought of the greatest new basketball statistic of all time.

A few thoughts from what is now available:

• The biggest surprise for me so far is the low turnover rate Georgetown has yielded on offense [TO rate = 15.6%, rank = 13/345 versus Div-I], including against their first two quality opponents [13.9%].  Now the Tigers haven't been forcing turnovers much this year [17.4%, 308/345], but the Jayhawks have [23.5%, 107/345].  The Hoyas have managed to keep their turnover rate below 20% for an entire season only once [2005-6: 18.8%, 35/334] since Coach Thompson arrived with his pass-heavy offense.  I have no expectation of this keeping up, but it sure would be nice if it did.

• Henry Sims and Jason Clark are using a huge number of possessions so far [34% and 27%, respectively vs. Kansas and Memphis], and their efficiency on offense is suffering a bit because of it [ORat = 104 and 107, respectively]. Hollis Thompson and Markel Starks managed much better offensive ratings by being more selective [125/16% and 141/14%].

• Otto Porter is playing really well, whether against all teams or just the top-100 (I don't think you needed the stats to know that).  He's been the best defender on the team while using his possessions efficiently [130/18%].  

• The reason some people hate plus/minus is that the stat can be very misleading, even over the course of an entire season.  There's a good example of that currently on the Hoyas:  plus/minus hates Hollis right now [-11 net / 40 minutes].  Net points says he's been playing fine [+11 net / 40 minutes].  Call me biased - since I'm about the only one who posts Dean Oliver's net points - but I think the stat-head version is a bit more accurate.

Housekeeping note

I never did write up a full recap for the Villanova game, but I think that ship has sailed.  You can check the usual suspects (link, link, link) for write-ups, as well as a new Hoya blog I stumbled upon here.


But that's not why I'm here.

I've just updated the Big East HD box scores, and appended a plus/minus and Roland rate table to each.  Keep in mind that plus/minus stats don't work well for players who get extreme amounts of playing time - either very little or very much (see this discussion for more on why unadjusted plus/minus and Roland rates aren't the greatest stats).  I'll try to update these tables every two weeks or so.

As mentioned previously, I'm only working up box scores for eight other teams besides the Hoyas, as they have useful play-by-play data available for most or all games.

A pearl of wisdom (or two) for each of those teams, while the season is young and I can be made to look foolish in 6 weeks:

• UConn:  Alex Oriakhi doesn't seem to be helping the cause as much as another shooter (e.g. Coombs-McDaniel)

• Louisville:  Edgar Sosa and Samardo Samuels appear irreplaceable for the Cardinals, and Pitino seems to know it; I thought T. Jennings would have a break-out year - perhaps not.

• Marquette:  Butler and Hayward, and a cast of thousands.  But since you already knew that, how about getting Maurice Acker some more playing time?

• Notre Dame:  here's a team where the plus/minus stats just don't work well - 'Gody, Jackson and Hansbrough rarely come out of the game.  Nash is more valuable than Scott and maybe Peoples so far.

• Pitt:  Ashton Gibbs has missed only 11 minutes of possible court-time in conference play, but Roland rate loves him.  I thought Dante Taylor would rate higher, but he's only five games into his Big East conference career, so I'll let it slide.

• St. John's:  There are 12 players with at least 20 minutes of playing time so far:  Sean Evans and Paris Horne are the leaders among the rotation guys, Omari Lawrence gets some love for those with less game action so far.

• Seton Hall:  Roland rate is not a fan of Herb Pope, which surprises me.  It loves Jordan Theodore, which doesn't surprise me at all.

• Villanova:  In a season-preview I contributed towards in September, I predicted that Corey Stokes would be one of the break-out players this year . . . not so much.  Maalik Wayns also has a lousy rate, but you'd never know it from that game on Sunday.
  

In defense of Henry Sims

Seaweed has made a post very similar to this on HoyaTalk (see here: Link) but since I already had this post planned out and might have a slightly different angle, I'm doing it anyway.

"Sims absolutely killed us today with his non existant defense"

"IT'S TIME TO GIVE JERELLE A FEW MINUTES, WE CAN'T BE LOSING ANYTHING MORE THAN WHEN HENRY IS OUT THERE"

"Negatives: 1) Henry."

"Sims was absolutely godawful in the second half. I've never seen anyone play so badly that they were solely responsible for a 10 point swing, but that was basically what you saw when St. John's took the lead by 1 - and the sad thing is we're only talking about a 2 minute stretch."

Confirmation bias is one of the key reasons why I always make sure to check the statistics. No matter how self-aware, every person has a tendency to to remember data that supports their preconceptions and ignore anything that that contradicts them.

This post could have been written about Chris Wright, but its about Henry Sims, who is the current Hoyatalk whipping boy.

Sims has had more than his share of struggles, but his detractors no longer see Henry in an unbiased light. His performance in the St. John's game is a perfect example.

Of particular focus to his detractors was this sequence:

10:19   Justin Brownlee drives past Henry Sims for a dunk
10:06   Henry Sims turns it over
9:55    Justin Brownlee (Sims' man) makes a three
9:42    Henry Sims turns it over

That's not a good sequence. Positioning the three as a defensive breakdown is somewhat up for debate, but I'll give it to the detractors. The Hoyas' seven point lead shrunk to one.

Still, that's not a ten point swing. There WAS a ten point swing in there, but it included a Chris Wright turnover, an offensive rebound given up, two forced threes by Jason Clark and two crazy-I-can't believe-that-went in threes that occurred when Henry wasn't in the game.

So this sequence, while bad, wasn't nearly as bad as folks would have you think.

Second, the turnover-fueled loss of a lead is hardly a Henry Sims-only phenomenon. While this is not exactly a dynamic defense of Henry Sims, it is an interesting data point in the area of preconceived notions altering reality.

For example, this was Greg Monroe's offensive sequence at then end of the first half when the lead suddenly went from ten to two:

4:12   Monroe Missed 3pter
3:12   Monroe Turnover
2:50   Monroe Offensive Foul
2:00   Monroe Missed Jumper
1:29   Monroe Missed Layup

Five of six offensive possessions ended at Monroe -- and he failed to convert any one of those-- but this sequence was not mentioned after the game. Yes, Monroe is a much, much better player. But this sequence was just as damaging as Sims'.

Finally, and most importantly, why ignore the good in Sims' game?

From the HD box score:

• Henry was +11. The team was better with him on the floor in this game. It doesn't mean Henry is the driving reason, or even playing well, but it does mean the team wasn't losing ground overall, even despite the four play breakdown.
• Henry assisted on 2 of 13 made buckets in his time on the floor -- a 15% Assist Rate -- and saved a would-be Hollis turnover and dished it to Monroe for some free throws. There's no assist there, but it was a nice play on both counts.
• He stopped a three on one playing excellent position defense.
  
• He grabbed two of 11 possible defensive rebounds. Not superman on the boards, but not awful. He didn't grab any offensive boards, but there were only three Hoya misses while he was on the floor.

So yeah, Henry has his ups and downs. But his detractors see only what they are predisposed to see. Sims' mistakes cost the Hoyas five or so points but he becomes the sole reason for a ten point swing. What was a bad match-up with no help on defense becomes "looking lost." What was a solid first half stretch (and a very effective stretch for his role) becomes forgotten.

Analysis: Georgetown 82, Fordham 55

It wasn't a carbon copy of the American game, it just feels that way.

Georgetown erupted after the first media time out of the 1st half, turning a 17-8 lead at 14:54 into a 41-11 blowout at 9:03. That's a 24-3 run in 4:51 in which the Hoyas shot 6-6 2FG, 4-4 3FG and had 1 turnover; in other words, GU produced ~2.2 points per possession during that 11 possession stretch, while allowing just one 2-pt jumper and a FT.

Congratulations are in order for Jonathan Wallace, who joined the 1000 career points club and became the all-time leader in 3FG made for Georgetown today.

Here's the tempo-free box score:

	Offense				Defense
	1st Half	2nd Half	Total		1st Half	2nd Half	Total
Pace	33	29	62
Eff.	151.0	111.2	132.5		81.5	97.3	88.9
eFG%	77.4%	54.5%	67.9%		29.4%	34.4%	31.8%
TO%	9.1%	17.4%	12.9%		9.1%	17.4%	12.9%
OR%	18.2%	23.1%	20.8%		29.6%	52.2%	40.0%
FTA/FGA					26.5%	25.0%	25.8%
FTM/FGA	6.5%	36.4%	18.9%
Assist Rate	80.0%	90.0%	83.3%		75.0%	40.0%	55.6%
Block Rate	5.3%	0.0%	3.3%		22.7%	13.0%	17.8%
Steal Rate	3.0%	13.9%	8.1%		9.1%	7.0%	8.1%

  Fordham vs Georgetown  
  12/31/07 2:00 pm at Verizon Center  
  Final score: Georgetown 82, Fordham 55
     
  Fordham                 Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF  
  ANDERSON, Kevin        25:46  - 12 0 /36 0 -1  0 -0  0 -0  1 /44 5 /12 1 /39 2 /38 0 /17 0 /33 2 /18  0   
  MOORE, Mike            16:51  - 1  0 /22 0 -0  0 -3  0 -0  3 /26 0 /6  0 /24 0 /27 0 /11 0 /21 0 /14  0   
  BUTLER, Brenton        21:35  - 23 0 /32 0 -3  0 -3  0 -0  6 /37 1 /10 0 /36 1 /35 0 /19 3 /28 1 /12  1   
  GREENE, Sebastian      25:09  - 25 2 /29 1 -9  0 -0  0 -0  9 /43 0 /8  1 /40 1 /40 0 /20 2 /34 3 /12  2   
  DUNSTON, Bryant        38:20  - 26 20/53 6 -17 0 -2  8 -8  19/63 2 /12 1 /60 1 /59 1 /29 9 /46 7 /22  1   
  STOUT, Marcus          36:24  - 21 27/51 2 -5  6 -11 5 -7  16/59 1 /9  2 /55 1 /54 0 /26 2 /43 1 /20  4   
  TANNER, Herb           04:09  - 15 2 /4  1 -1  0 -1  0 -0  2 /7  0 /1  0 /9  1 /8  0 /6  0 /6  0 /1   0   
  LANDISCH, Dan          00:09  + 0  0 /0  0 -0  0 -0  0 -0  0 /1  0 /0  0 /0  0 /1  0 /0  0 /2  0 /0   0   
  BECK, Matt             00:09  + 0  0 /0  0 -0  0 -0  0 -0  0 /1  0 /0  0 /0  0 /1  0 /0  1 /2  0 /0   0   
  BINNS, Michael         28:36  - 12 4 /43 2 -7  0 -1  0 -2  8 /44 1 /12 0 /43 0 /43 0 /20 1 /32 2 /20  3   
  BETHEL, Chris          02:52  + 0  0 /5  0 -2  0 -0  0 -0  2 /5  0 /2  0 /4  0 /4  0 /2  1 /3  0 /1   1   
  TOTALS                 40:00       55    12-45 6 -21 13-17    66 10/18 5 /62 8 /62 1 /30 20/50 19/24  12  
                                           0.267 0.286 0.765       0.556 0.081 0.129 0.033 0.400 0.792      
    
  Georgetown              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF  
  Wallace, Jonathan      18:52  + 31 19/49 3 -3  4 -5  1 -2  8 /30 2 /12 0 /30 0 /32 0 /25 0 /11 3 /29  1   
  Summers, DaJuan        18:19  + 32 15/54 2 -2  3 -4  2 -2  6 /30 3 /16 0 /32 0 /32 0 /18 0 /9  9 /23  1   
  Freeman, Austin        24:14  + 24 12/56 2 -4  2 -2  2 -2  6 /34 1 /17 1 /39 2 /40 0 /27 1 /13 0 /29  0   
  Sapp, Jessie           19:02  + 33 11/57 3 -3  1 -4  2 -2  7 /29 6 /17 3 /32 0 /32 1 /19 0 /9  3 /22  1   
  Hibbert, Roy           17:43  + 33 11/53 4 -7  1 -1  0 -0  8 /27 4 /15 0 /32 0 /32 3 /20 1 /7  3 /22  2   
  Macklin, Vernon        22:17  - 6  4 /29 2 -2  0 -0  0 -0  2 /26 3 /8  0 /30 1 /30 1 /25 0 /17 3 /28  3   
  Wright, Chris          21:18  - 3  2 /32 1 -3  0 -1  0 -0  4 /23 3 /10 0 /32 2 /31 0 /28 0 /12 3 /30  0   
  Rivers, Jeremiah       24:02  + 0  5 /37 1 -2  1 -1  0 -0  3 /28 1 /10 1 /34 2 /35 1 /27 0 /17 2 /25  3   
  Jansen, Bryon          01:33  - 2  0 /0  0 -1  0 -0  0 -0  1 /2  0 /0  0 /3  0 /2  0 /0  0 /2  0 /3   1   
  Crawford, Tyler        08:27  - 4  0 /8  0 -0  0 -2  0 -0  2 /10 1 /3  0 /12 1 /11 0 /7  1 /8  0 /9   0   
  Wattad, Omar           03:27  - 6  0 /0  0 -0  0 -1  0 -0  1 /4  0 /0  0 /5  0 /5  0 /3  0 /4  0 /4   1   
  Ewing, Patrick         20:46  + 3  3 /35 0 -3  0 -2  3 -4  5 /22 1 /12 0 /29 0 /28 2 /26 1 /11 3 /26  5   
  TOTALS                 40:00       82    18-30 12-23 10-12    53 25/30 5 /62 8 /62 8 /45 5 /24 30/50  18  
                                           0.600 0.522 0.833       0.833 0.081 0.129 0.178 0.208 0.600      
     
  Efficiency: Georgetown 1.323, Fordham 0.887
  eFG%: Georgetown 0.679, Fordham 0.318
  Substitutions: Georgetown 23, Fordham 23
     
  2-pt Shot Selection:  
  Dunks: Georgetown 3-3, Fordham 1-1
  Layups/Tips: Georgetown 10-16, Fordham 5-18
  Jumpers: Georgetown 5-11, Fordham 6-26

From the stats above, it's clear that Fordham was more competitive in the 2nd half, with better defense slowing down the Hoyas' eFG% (77.4% -> 54.5%) and great offensive rebounding. How much of that was the result of lopsided score is hard to say.

If you look at the +/- stats for the last 2 games, you'll see how this game differed from the last, despite both being 27-point wins:

		American					Fordham
Player		Min		+/-			Min		+/-
Summers, DaJuan		20		+	12		19		+	32
Ewing, Patrick		17		+	11		21		+	3
Hibbert, Roy		20		+	7		18		+	33
Wallace, Jon		21		+	14		19		+	31
Sapp, Jessie		23		+	18		19		+	33
Rivers, Jeremiah		20		+	21		24		+	0
Freeman, Austin		24		+	13		24		+	24
Wright, Chris		21		+	14		21		-	3
Macklin, Vernon		20		+	20		22		-	6

While Saturday's game was a near-equal effort by the nine-man rotation, today the heavy lifting was done almost exclusively by the starting five (did I mention that Austin Freeman made his first career start?).

That wraps up the OOC portion of the schedule. The Big East schedule begins for Georgetown on Jan. 5th, as they meet the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at the RAC in New Jersey.

Hoya +/-, and some odds and ends

Georgetown Individual +/-

The stats available here on Hoya Prospectus got a big boost tonight, thanks to the hard work of HoyaJake (formerly known as GUJake) of HoyaTalk. He's gone through the play-by-play data for all games this season (except @ Old Dominion) and worked out each player's +/-. Plus/minus is the number of points scored by the Hoyas, less the number of points allowed to the opposition, while a player was on the court - very similar to +/- in hockey. I'll keep the stats on a separate page, as he provides them. There is also a permanent link to this page on the right side bar.

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Other news from around the web:

• Georgetown plays 2 this weekend (I'm off Monday and Tuesday, so I'm treating it as a four-day weekend). See HoyaSaxa.com for all the previews and pertinent links you could ever want.

• There was a Georgetown sighting on Basketball Prospectus - Ken Pomeroy has a followup article on players whose possession usage is much different than last year, and Jessie Sapp is one of three cited as having greatly increased Poss %. Here's the pertinent section:

  Jessie Sapp, Georgetown: There was some concern over who would pick up the slack left by Jeff Green. It turns out that just about all of it has been taken by Georgetown's starting two-guard, who has used 27.5% of the Hoyas' possessions while he has been on the floor, compared to just 18.7% last season. Amazingly, he's been more involved in the offense than the ultra-efficient Roy Hibbert. However, while Sapp's role has increased, his playing time has decreased from 32.8 minutes per game last season to just 22.0 this season. Freshman Austin Freeman has taken up some of the minutes, and an injury that kept Sapp out for most of the Fairfield game accounts for a bit more of the shortfall. With the increased responsibility, Sapp has been more efficient as well, seeing his eFG% increase from 49.3% to 59.0%. The improvement can be attributed to his 44.1% shooting from three-point range. Given that Sapp was a career 27.3% shooter from that range entering this season, and that he's made merely 64.4% of his free throws in his two-plus seasons at Georgetown, his chances of staying over 40% by season's end aren't good. Sapp appears to be an outlier who will fall back once his shooting suffers against the better competition on the Hoyas' schedule, and the necessity of getting Hibbert more touches increases.

  Just a couple of additional comments to this excellent analysis:
  
  • If you throw out the Fairfield game, Sapp is averaging 24.0 minutes/game, not a lot more than his season average. After getting 33 minutes in the season opener against William & Mary, he hasn't played 30 minutes in any game - a tribute to the play of Austin Freeman, Jeremiah Rivers and, more recently, Chris Wright.
  
  
  • Generally, G'town players have been better offensively in the 1st halves of games. Part of this is from the Memphis game, but this was true before last Saturday. It could be because of a few routs led to sloppy endgame play, perhaps there are other reasons. None have been so much worse in the 2nd half than Sapp. Here's a list of the 9 regular players, ranked by the differential between 2nd half & 1st half ORtg:
    
    

    Player	ORtg (2nd - 1st)
    Wright, Chris	22.1
    Freeman, Austin	5.3
    Macklin, Vernon	2.2
    Rivers, Jeremiah	-5.8
    Wallace, Jonathan	-10.8
    Ewing, Patrick	-11.5
    Hibbert, Roy	-12.4
    Summers, DaJuan	-17.4
    Sapp, Jessie	-37.0

    
    Why is Sapp having such trouble? His TO% increases from 18.3 to 39.2% from the 1st to 2nd half (Wallace also struggles on a smaller scale, going from 10.6 to 27.0%).

• If you haven't had a chance yet, check out the newest craze hitting the internet, the Talking Hoya Podcast. There's only been one so far (post-Memphis game), and I understand the founder (P. Grant) is looking for a co-host.