Recap: Baylor 74, Georgetown 72

Our long national nightmare is over, or at least the Hoyas' basketball season.

It was an offensive showcase down in Waco, and the Hoyas came up 2 points short, in a game that served as a microcosm of their entire season.

The play-by-play doesn't contain substitution data, so you'll only be getting a tempo-free box score tonight.

Let's run the numbers:

                      Offense                            Defense
         1st Half  2nd Half   Total         1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace           28        28        56

Eff.         156.7      98.9     127.7          121.1     141.4     131.2

eFG%          90.5      48.1      67.0           63.6      75.0      69.6
TO%           21.4      21.2      21.3           14.2      17.7      16.0
OR%           33.3      33.3      33.3           25.0      33.3      28.6
FTA/FGA       33.3      11.5      21.3           40.9      20.8      30.4
FTM/FGA       28.6      11.5      19.1           27.3      16.7      21.7

Assist Rate   62.5      45.5      55.6           75.0      62.5      67.9
Block Rate    9.1       25.0      17.4           0.0       6.3       3.4
Steal Rate    21.4      17.7      19.5           10.7      10.6      10.6

2FG%          90.9      66.7      78.3           61.5      75.0      69.0
3FG%          60.0      21.4      37.5           44.4      50.0      47.1
FT%           85.7     100.0      90.0           66.7      80.0      71.4

That both teams got over 70 points in a 56 possession game is impressive; the 56 possessions played was the fewest of any game this season.

Defense just wasn't in the cards tonight, as the Hoyas reverted back to their early-swoon form of good offense / bad defense (think at Marquette or at Syracuse). It leads to aesthetically pleasing games, but the same, inevitable result.

Offensively, that was the highest efficiency since the aforementioned loss against Syracuse.
Defensively, that was the highest efficiency of the season (just nosing out the aforementioned loss at Marquette).

That's all for tonight, as it's way past my bedtime.


Look for a continuation of the season post-mortems over the next few weeks.

NIT-log5 and Adjusted Efficiency Predictions

Following up on yesterday's teaser post, it's time to post preview odds for the 2009 NIT.

Contrary to my hopes, I haven't been able to expand my bracket to account for championship chances, so you're just getting finals chances for every team. If the Hoyas win Wednesday and after the first round is over, I'll post complete odds for the rest of the NIT.

Because the NIT is played at campus sites, team's chances of making it to NYC for the semifinals are greatly affected by seeding. First, here's what team's chances would look like if this were the NCAA tournament and home court advantage was not taken into account, via the log5 method:

Seed  Team           2nd Round Quarters New York  Finals
1     Auburn           79.93%   43.19%   19.60%    8.89%
8     UT-Martin        20.07%    4.58%    0.82%    0.14%
4     Tulsa            53.29%   28.60%   12.30%    5.28%
5     Northwestern     46.71%   23.63%    9.43%    3.75%
3     Baylor           37.57%   22.07%   12.20%    5.76%
6     Georgetown       62.43%   43.78%   29.38%   17.48%
2     Virginia Tech    63.87%   24.63%   12.68%    5.50%
7     Duquesne         36.13%    9.52%    3.59%    1.10%

1     San Diego St     81.33%   47.34%   27.67%   15.94%
8     Weber St         18.67%    4.57%    1.14%    0.28%
4     Kansas St        59.62%   30.84%   16.71%    8.92%
5     Illinois St      40.38%   17.25%    7.71%    3.39%
3     South Carolina   52.41%   21.14%    8.65%    3.76%
6     Davidson         47.59%   18.12%    7.01%    2.88%
2     St Mary's        36.30%   18.92%    7.92%    3.51%
7     Washington St    63.70%   41.81%   23.19%   13.42%

Seed  Team           2nd Round Quarters New York  Finals
1     Creighton        78.07%   35.31%   14.01%    6.46%
8     Bowling Green    21.93%    4.16%    0.65%    0.13%
4     Kentucky         58.72%   37.48%   17.95%    9.75%
5     UNLV             41.28%   23.05%    9.06%    4.15%
3     New Mexico       63.69%   32.50%   19.72%   11.58%
6     Nebraska         36.31%   13.54%    6.38%    2.88%
2     Notre Dame       52.37%   28.83%   17.52%   10.30%
7     UAB              47.63%   25.13%   14.71%    8.31%

1     Florida          81.12%   43.34%   27.70%   14.55%
8     Jacksonville     18.88%    4.10%    1.20%    0.25%
4     Miami            66.70%   38.62%   25.45%   13.92%
5     Providence       33.30%   13.94%    6.86%    2.60%
3     Niagara          52.42%   29.91%   12.59%    5.29%
6     Rhode Island     47.58%   26.02%   10.36%    4.12%
2     Penn State       58.05%   27.52%   10.62%    4.09%
7     George Mason     41.95%   16.55%    5.21%    1.63%

Alas and alack, playing at on-campus sites significantly decreases the odds for teams that will likely end up playing a lot on the road.

Here's what it looks like with home field advantage taken into account, including Miami playing at Providence and assuming the higher (better) seed hosts in all second and third round games:

Seed  Team           2nd Round Quarters New York  Finals
1     Auburn           88.76%   61.58%   38.76%   17.28%
8     UT-Martin        11.24%    1.46%    0.16%    0.03%
4     Tulsa            68.66%   25.89%   10.07%    4.21%
5     Northwestern     31.34%   11.08%    4.00%    1.55%
3     Baylor           52.95%   25.35%   12.50%    5.77%
6     Georgetown       47.05%   27.83%   13.97%    8.23%
2     Virginia Tech    76.85%   42.87%   19.63%    8.29%
7     Duquesne         23.15%    3.95%    0.91%    0.27%

1     San Diego St     89.70%   64.40%   48.36%   28.63%
8     Weber St         10.30%    1.15%    0.18%    0.04%
4     Kansas St        74.11%   27.00%   14.09%    7.73%
5     Illinois St      25.89%    7.45%    3.20%    1.44%
3     South Carolina   68.19%   28.72%   10.08%    4.48%
6     Davidson         31.81%   12.68%    2.88%    1.21%
2     Saint Mary's     52.28%   35.16%   12.60%    5.72%
7     Washington St    47.72%   23.44%    8.61%    5.11%

Seed  Team           2nd Round Quarters New York  Finals
1     Creighton        87.58%   52.47%   28.24%   12.67%
8     Bowling Green    12.42%    1.23%    0.10%    0.02%
4     Kentucky         73.56%   35.55%   13.21%    7.03%
5     UNLV             26.44%   10.75%    3.23%    1.44%
3     New Mexico       77.71%   35.44%   21.01%   12.18%
6     Nebraska         22.29%    7.35%    2.28%    1.00%
2     Notre Dame       67.69%   45.92%   27.17%   15.71%
7     UAB              32.31%   11.29%    4.76%    2.64%

1     Florida          89.22%   62.56%   47.87%   25.07%
8     Jacksonville     10.78%    1.39%    0.24%    0.05%
4     Miami            51.97%   22.24%   12.48%    6.82%
5     Providence       48.03%   13.81%    5.51%    2.06%
3     Niagara          67.38%   32.57%   12.53%    5.22%
6     Rhode Island     32.62%   15.16%    3.98%    1.57%
2     Penn State       72.78%   45.52%   16.10%    6.13%
7     George Mason     27.22%    6.75%    1.30%    0.40%

Methodological note: This latter calculation is made using the Pythagorean expectation formula, with an exponent of 11.739. That seemed to produce results very similar to log5, so it's more of an apples-to-apples comparison.


The great advantages of a home team are pretty clear here, as all of the higher seeds look much better. Creighton's chances of making it to New York essentially double, and they're not alone.

In fact, game location probably matters more in the NIT than it does in the NCAA, simply because the teams, except for the automatic qualifying dreck at the bottom of the bracket, are fairly evenly matched in quality.


Finally - not that you need a reminder - efficiency ratings are not destiny.

NIT-Hoya Odds Report

I'm working on a full Auburn bracket and NIT report (which unfortunately won't appear until tomorrow evening), but in the interim log5 gives the Hoyas a 62.43% chance of beating Baylor, a 43.78% chance of making it to the quarterfinals, and a 29.38% chance of making it to New York City for the semifinals.

Adjusted for venue, though, the Hoyas have only a 47.11% chance of making it to the second round. See this page for more information on that calculation-I'm using that 11.5 exponent Ken lists there, but it looks like he's using something between 11.75 and 11.8 for his ratings this year based on the quick log5 check I did.

I'll have full reports on the complete NIT log5 and home-adjusted efficiency chances tomorrow. In the meantime, check out the results of a Monte Carlo simulation using both KenPom's efficiency ratings and Sagarin's predictor (best viewed in IE, so install IE tab if necessary). Thanks to GoldHoya for passing this along.

News: WVU on G'town

Our man in N.J., Ray Floriani, was at MSG covering the NIT finals, where WVU beat Clemson 78-73 (it wasn't that close). While most of their post-game press conference revolved around their big finish to the season (and their fine new t-shirts), they did take some time to discuss Georgetown's chances in the Final Four.

Georgetown will have an ardent fan, who is not a student nor alum, when they take the floor Saturday against Ohio State. The fan is actually an opponent, West Virginia coach John Beilein. Shortly after his Mountaineers captured the 70th NIT defeating Clemson 78-73, Beilein spoke of Big East pride, specifically Georgetown.

“There’s no question I’ll be rooting for Georgetown,” Beilein said. “We played three top ten teams one week and the one game we were never in was Georgetown, right guys?” Beilein’s latter remark was directed to senior Frank Young and freshman Da’Sean Butler who joined the Mountaineer coach in the media room.

“Georgetown is a terrific school, a great team and being a product of Jesuit education (Wheeling Jesuit ’75), I’ll be pulling for them,” Beilein added. “They are fabulous and are as an intelligent team as there is today.”

Young, who earned MVP honors with a game high 24 points in the final will also have a Hoya rooting interest. “I think the Big East winning is great for the conference and us,” Young said. “We got the NIT and I would love to see a sweep. We’ll be rooting for Georgetown but also the Rutgers women. It would be great to see the Big East have the NIT and both NCAA championships.”

Beilein deflected and media inquiries into the Michigan opening saying,” I just want to concentrate on this (NIT championship).” WVU fans feel that even though he might listen to overtures from Ann Arbor, he’ll probably (hopefully) stay in Morgantown. One fan noted, “He [Beilein] has a solid program in a conference [Big East] that is good as any in the country.” Stay tuned.