I'm working on a full Auburn bracket and NIT report (which unfortunately won't appear until tomorrow evening), but in the interim log5 gives the Hoyas a 62.43% chance of beating Baylor, a 43.78% chance of making it to the quarterfinals, and a 29.38% chance of making it to New York City for the semifinals.
Adjusted for venue, though, the Hoyas have only a 47.11% chance of making it to the second round. See this page for more information on that calculation-I'm using that 11.5 exponent Ken lists there, but it looks like he's using something between 11.75 and 11.8 for his ratings this year based on the quick log5 check I did.
I'll have full reports on the complete NIT log5 and home-adjusted efficiency chances tomorrow. In the meantime, check out the results of a Monte Carlo simulation using both KenPom's efficiency ratings and Sagarin's predictor (best viewed in IE, so install IE tab if necessary). Thanks to GoldHoya for passing this along.
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