Once more unto the breach

I can't speak for the rest of Hoya-dom, but the coincidence of the next stretch of games with the date on the calendar brings to mind the dreadful memory of last season's implosion:  on January 16th, 2009, the Hoyas sat at 12-3 (3-2) heading into a road game against stiff opposition (Duke).

We all know how the rest of the season went:  4-12 (4-9).

In the next 5 games, Georgetown plays four of KenPom.com's top-25 (through Friday's games), with three of those games on the road.  Ken's predictions:

.                                    KenPom
Date          Opponent    Rank     Exp. Score
17-Jan      @ Villanova   [22]      L: 75-78
20-Jan      @ Pittsburgh  [25]      L: 60-63
23-Jan        Rutgers     [168]     W: 77-57
25-Jan      @ Syracuse    [6]       L: 68-77
30-Jan        Duke        [1]       L: 67-72

Regardless of what you think about Ken's methodology, the fact is that the Hoyas are likely underdogs in four games the rest of this month, and will likely lose multiple times.  The question, to me, is not how the Hoyas do in this next stretch of five games, but rather how the team responds after this death-march.

To be clear, the remaining schedule is no cake-walk with two tough road games (Louisville and West Virginia) and several other toss-ups.  Indeed, right now Georgetown's RPI strength-of-schedule projects to be #2 at the end of the regular season.

This all got me to wondering how this year is stacking up against last season, at nominally the same point.

My favorite comparison for this sort of thing is performance.  Simply put, I use KenPom's expected point spread, adjusted for the actual pace of the game, and compare it to the actual point spread of that game. That is, if the Hoyas are expected to beat Team A by 10 points, based on KenPom's stats, but actually win by 14 points, the net performance for that game is +4 points.

I usually update the performance charts (linked at upper-right) after each game, but I won't hold it against you if you've never looked.  Here's team performance for last season and so far this year (click on any figure to enlarge):

What's immediately obvious to me is that there's a lot less variability game-to-game.  The 2008-09 team could be tremendous (+20 points above expected against Maryland, Savannah St. and UConn) or lousy (-15 points below expected against West Virginia, Louisville and St. John's (II).  And remember, these expected point spreads are worked out using end-of-season stats (i.e. after the great collapse).

Meanwhile, this season the Hoyas have played every game within 10 points of expectation - their best game was +6 points vs. DePaul, the worst was -9 points vs. Old Dominion.

Allow me to quantify this variability, going even further back for context:

Season        Games          SDev. of Perf.
2007-08       First 17       ±  8.6 points
2007-08       Last 17        ±  9.4
2008-09       First 15       ± 14.6
2008-09       Last 16        ±  9.3
2009-10       First 15       ±  4.3

It looks like typical variability for a ~16 game stretch is around ±9 points; that's to say that most games (about 2/3) should end up within 9 points of KenPom's predicted outcome, adjusting for actual game pace.

As you can see, the early season last year was all over the place.  I'm not sure that was some sort of harbinger of impending doom, but it does show that you never knew what kind of performance Georgetown would bring to each game (despite going 12-3).  Also interesting to me is that the Hoyas only played 2 games all year slightly better than expected (here defined at 0-10 points above expected).  Essentially, either the Hoyas were very good - mostly early in the season - or they just weren't good at all.

So far, this season is another matter entirely.  Most games the Hoyas are performing within ~4 points of what KenPom tells us to expect - good news for gamblers, I suppose.  As the great Dennis Green would say, they are who we think they are.

But why?

As my loyal reader knows, I can never leave well enough alone.  Instead of just looking at net performance, I can also look at offensive performance (points scored - expected points scored) and defensive performance (expected points allowed - points allowed).

.                            SDev. of       SDev. of
Season        Games          Off. Perf      Def. Perf
2007-08       First 17        ±  6.9         ±  5.8
2007-08       Last 17         ±  7.7         ±  6.8
2008-09       First 15        ± 10.2         ±  8.3
2008-09       Last 16         ± 10.5         ± 10.6
2009-10       First 15        ±  7.0         ±  5.7

What we see early (the first three lines) is that the variability of the offensive or defensive performance is less than the overall performance.  That's what we'd expect if the two are uncorrelated or vary together (i.e. when the team is playing well on offense, it's also playing well on defense).

Also, for four of the five cohorts the variability of the defense is smaller than the variability of the offense.  This also makes intuitive sense, along the lines of the baseball adage that "speed never slumps." A several game hot- or cold-streak from outside is much more likely to manifest itself in these stats than running into several hot or cold teams consecutively.

However, starting in the 2nd half of last season, and much more strongly now, we see that the variability of the offense and defense are larger than the overall variability of team performance.  What's happening now is that when the offense is playing poorly, the defense plays well (and vice versa).

Excuse me while I whip this (graph) out:

as compared to previous times:

If I were a clever fellow, I'd be able to tell you why this is happening.  Maybe it's just small sample size.  I don't think it's related to rotations, especially this year (what rotations?).

But if the trend continues, it means that, at the end of the game, Georgetown is performing about what KenPom's stats predict.  And he's predicting a whole lot of pain over the next two weeks.

Three Questions for UConn

Is this your father's UConn team?

Well, in a lot of ways it is. Offensively, they still don't take a lot of threes (3PA/FGA 343rd in the nation -- there's 347 teams in D-1). They are fundamentally an offense started by driving to the hoop from their perimeter players, letting their big men score mostly off offensive rebounds and dishes.

On defense, they still block more shots than anyone despite losing Thabeet (lending credence to my longstanding theory that the UConn scorer is very, very generous with the stat). They don't try to cause turnovers and they never, ever foul.

They are a little different this year. For one, they simply aren't as good a team as last year, which is nice. Two, they don't offensive rebounds nearly as well as they have in the past.

That sounds pretty lopsided for the Hoyas.

Well, it's not an awful matchup for us and has been pretty good in recent years. During III's reign, the Hoyas are just 3-4 versus the Huskies, but they've won the last three.

That said, it isn't all roses. They may not shoot a lot of threes, but they make them at a decent rate. Since the Hoyas defense seems to almost encourage them, this may not work in our favor.

Connecticut may not rebound like they used to, but they still offensive rebound better than Marquette and I still remember the second half of Wednesday's game.

Lastly, somewhere along the way, Stanley Robinson got good. He's turned into a quality scorer when he used to be only an athlete. At least by the stats -- I'm curious to see how much of that is still reliant on his athleticism.

So, what do the Hoyas need to do?

It's the same old yarn: watch the turnover and rebound. More important, though, is the latter, since the Huskies don't really try to force turnovers. The team just got out-rebounded by Marquette. We had a better start this year on the boards, but the game versus the Golden Gold brough back memories of last year. Gavin Edwards and Alex Oriakhi will try to push our players around -- how much will determine who wins.

Well, that or another crazy performance from three.

Guest blogger: Ray Floriani's pregame notes on ND

We're setting a breath-taking pace here on H.P., as this marks the fifth post in five days to start the new year. Don't expect us to keep it up!

Ray Floriani sent along a short note ahead of tonight's game with Notre Dame with some observations of St. John's upset of the Irish on Saturday.

SOUTH ORANGE, NJ – I covered Notre Dame-St. John’s at the Garden on Saturday and have a few notes on the Hoyas’ opposition tonight.

Perimeter oriented. The Irish saw 27% of their field goal attempts come from beyond the arc. They shot 4 of 17 from downtown, thanks to good, solid perimeter defense by the Red Storm. Paris Horne did a nice job on ND’s Kyle McAlarney, forcing him into a 10 point afternoon (4 of 12 from the floor and 1 of 5 from three).

Game Plan. St. John’s coach Norm Roberts saw on film that Luke Harangody is an outstanding passer out of the low post double team. Roberts decided to play Harangody straight up with Justin Burrell. Harangody scored 28 (12 of 24 from the field) but worked for virtually everything. In fact, the only uncontested field goal he had was on a screen and roll where St. John’s failed to switch.

Pace. In their win over DePaul on New Year’s Eve, the Irish pushed the tempo to a 72 possession contest. St. John’s got them into a 67 possession contest which was more to the Red Storm’s liking.

Caring for the ball. Mike Brey’s club does not commit a great deal of turnovers and handled any St. John’s 2-2-1 pressure well. Against DePaul, ND had a 13% TO rate and on Saturday it was 16%. Both great numbers.

Harangody. A great player, the ND star has size at 6-8 255-pounds yet is agile as a swing man fifty pounds lighter. Harangody can power you inside or put it on the floor and use an assortment of post moves. He has outstanding footwork and is a seemingly tireless competitor. Can’t say Hoya fans will enjoy watching him but they will admire him.

Guest Analysis: GU-OSU Preview

I'd have to say that one of the best parts of starting this blog is the occasional contribution I receive. This one is probably the best so far, by Tom G. (last name withheld in case he billed this tome to a client):

(All stats from KenPom's pages for the two teams: Georgetown and Ohio State.)

Defense wins championships, right? Not in this year's Final Four: Ohio State and Georgetown both feature an oustanding offensive and a very good defense, as does Florida on the other side of the bracket (UCLA is the token great defensive team this year). The Hoyas rank first in adjusted offensive efficiency at 125.1, and the Buckeyes are 4th with a very healthy 123.2. The Buckeyes counter with a slightly better defense, 87.7 efficiency, 14th, while the Hoyas are 18th nationally at 89.0. From an overall efficiency perspective, these two teams are very closely matchup, and is basically a pick'em.

GEORGETOWN ON OFFENSE
How They Win
When the Hoyas do well offensively, the most important thing they do is make shots. Yes, I know this seems obvious, but you're going to see it four times, because it's that important. Also strongly correlated with Hoya offensive efficiency are offensive rebounding and turnovers (pace is also strongly correlated, but I suspect that's a function of turnovers).

What They're Good At
Since they're the nation's most efficient offensive team, the Hoyas are good at a couple things. But the most important thing they're good at is making shots: 57.0% eFG, 4th nationally. In particular, they make 2 pointers, 57.7%, 2nd. They're not too bad at 3's, either, 37.1%, 69th, but they're not a POT, and take shots from behind the arc at about an average rate (34.6%, 156th). The Hoyas are very good at offensive rebounding, taking in 40.5% of their misses, 7th nationally. They're also pretty good at not getting their shots blocked, 7.1%, 44th. There are two related categories, however, where the Hoyas are not very good: turnovers and steals. Hoya turnovers occur on 21.9% of possessions, 209th, and 11.2% of possessions end in a steal, 273rd best. It's generally really, really hard to score when you give the ball away every fifth time you go down the court, but the Hoyas have managed it. Better, their trendline for this stat looks good: in none of their seven postseason games (BET + NCAAs) have the Hoyas turned the ball over on 20% of their possessions. Their longest previous such streak was a mere two games. This might be the result of some coaching emphasis by JT3 and the staff, heightened awareness and care by the players, or maybe just some good luck. If it ends on Saturday, the Hoyas will need to be even better in the other areas of performance.

OHIO STATE ON DEFENSE
How They Win
When the Buckeyes do well defensively, the most important thing they're doing is not letting their opponent make shots. This is still obvious, and still very important. The Buckeyes also win when they force turnovers, and lose when they let their opponent shoot lots and lots of free throws. Both Wisconsin and North Carolina had an FTR over 50% in their victories over the Buckeyes (Florida won because they shot the lights out).

What They're Good At
Remember that part above where I said Buckeye opponents who win shoot free throws? Nobody else shoots free throws against Ohio State (well, almost): 21.1% FTR, 2nd nationally (behind huh, what, really defensively dreadful Arizona). The Buckeyes are also excellent at blocking shots, 15.7%, 11th nationally. Teams also have trouble shooting the 2: 44.1%, 28th, and aren't good at 3's, either: 33.1%, 84th. This makes for a good combination: 46.2% eFG, 37th. Like Hoya opponents, Buckeye opponents shoot a lot of 3's, 37.3%, 270th fewest. The Buckeyes aren't too shabby on the offensive glass, either, allowing opponents to rebound 31.1% of their own shots, 69th best. The Buckeyes are a little above average, 10.2%, 136th, at stealing the ball, but they aren't very good at forcing turnovers, 20.1%, 218th.


MATCHUPS TO WATCH
Roy Hibbert is a beast on the offensive glass (14.7%, 19th). Greg Oden is a beast on the defensive glass (23.4%, 37th). 6'5" Daequan Cook is a very good defensive rebounder (20.9%, 98th, better than any Hoya). The Hoyas will have a height advantage at most positions most of the time, likely including whomever Cook is on. Can they successfully use that height to crash the glass?

Mike Conley is excellent at stealing the ball, 4.3%, 27th Will Wallace, Sapp, and Rivers protect the ball? Since nobody else on the Buckeyes gets any steals, will the Hoyas try to avoid playing against the ball with Conley?

Oden is a shot-altering presence in the middle (12.8% blocks, 8th). Oden's likely replacement, 6'9" Othello Hunter isn't too bad, either (6.8%, 69th). Tennessee's last chance failed because Ramar Smith did the dribble penetration and Oden was there to block his shot (seriously, how did you not know that was going to happen?). If the Buckeyes play zone, as would seem likely, how will the Hoyas deal with Oden in the middle?



OHIO STATE ON OFFENSE
The Buckeyes triumphed over Memphis in the South Regional Final by a final score of 92-76. But the game wasn't a blowout the entire way. At the 11:43 mark of the second half, Antonio Anderson hit a jumper to stake the Tigers to a 58-54 lead. On Ohio State's ensuing possession, Joey Dorsey hacked Mike Conley Jr. to pick up his fourth foul, and the parade of Buckeyes to the line began. In the first 28 minutes of the game, Memphis took 18 from the free throw line, and Ohio State took 15. Over the last 11 1/2 minutes, the Tigers took a mere 2 from the charity stripe, and the Buckeyes were granted 26. Yes, some of those attempts (12, probably) were the result of the "mandatory" foul-and-three late-game strategy. But even discounting those, that's still a 14-2 disparity. Naturally, none of the commentary I've seen has focused on this little piece of news. Yes, Memphis sent their opponents to the line a lot. But this was really a key factor in the Buckeye win Saturday, and also in their win against Tennessee on Thursday (68.6 FTR).

How They Win
Oddly, though, getting to the line isn't something the Buckeyes are that great out. Their overall FTR rate is actually a hair worse than that of the Hoyas, at 26.0, 136th nationally. What they do do to win is hit shots. Yes, I'm going to say it again. When teams make their shots, they play do well offensively. The Buckeyes also do well offensively when they crash the glass. Greg Oden and Othello Hunter are both dynamite offensive rebounders, ranking in the top 16 nationally. But overall, the Buckeyes are only an average offensive rebounding team (34.7%, 128th). If you can prevent the center from getting rebounds, you're that much closer to victory.

What They're Good At
Thanks in part to Mike Conley Jr., the Buckeyes are very good at holding onto the basketball. They only turn the ball over 17.5% of the time, 22nd nationally. Remember how Georgetown hasn't turned the ball over much lately? You have to go back 20 games before you find a single game where Ohio State turned the ball over as much as Georgetown has in an average game this year. Relatedly, the Buckeyes also rank 22nd nationally in preventing steals. The Buckeyes are pretty good at making their shots: they hit 53.4% of their 2's, 22nd nationally (seriously, is Tyler Crawford available for a hex?). It's also hard to block their shots, even harder than it is to block a Hoya's shot (6.9%, 33rd). They shoot ok from 3, 36.8%, and are above average at how frequently they shoot them, 36.8%, 103rd), but they shoot 2's a lot for a team often made up for Oden and four guys who are largely perimeter players (sorry, Wonk, they really don't have much inside depth). Importantly, there aren't any aspects of the offensive game the Buckeyes are bad at.

GEORGETOWN ON DEFENSE
How They Win
When Georgetown is playing well defensively, everything can matter. Naturally, the best correlation comes with ... you guessed it, keeping the opponent from making shots. I know, you're all shocked. The Hoyas also do well defensively when they prevent the opponent from getting offensive rebounds (see North Carolina game, first half versus end of game). The Hoyas do well defensively when they force their opponent to turn the ball over. The Hoyas do well defensively when they don't turn the ball over on the offensive end--based on this, I expected transition D to be a big key to the North Carolina game, and the Hoyas performed better than I expected. One game does not make a trend, though, and the Hoyas would be wise to keep up their current trend of not turning the ball over very often. Hoya opponents also score frequently when they get to the line a lot (again, see UNC, first half versus end of game; see also Syracuse and Duke).

What They're Good At
I keep harping on making shots on offense and preventing the other team from making shots on defense. Well, the Hoyas are really, really good at this on defense. Opponents hit only 43% of their 2's, 13th best, and 30.3% of their 3's, 7th best. Even better, perhaps, Hoya opponents shoot the 3 even more frequently than Buckeye opponents do (38.1% 3 pointers, 291st fewest). Part of the reason opponents shoot 3's rather than 2's, and shoot so poorly, is the Hoyas block shots, better even than the Buckeyes (16.0%, 9th best). The Hoyas are also pretty good at not sending opponents to the line, 32.1%, 78th. Thus endeth the list of things the Hoyas are good at defensively. The bad news: the Hoyas don't force their opponents to turn the ball over, and they don't get steals. Again, the Hoyas are atypical: most good offensive teams don't turn the ball over very much, and most good defensive teams force turnovers. These aspects of the game make up for ills in other places, and it's rare for a team to be like the Hoyas. But, the Hoyas are the Hoyas, and should be treated as such. Ceteris paribus, you'd like to see the Hoyas force more turnovers on defense. But (1) the Buckeyes are very good at not turning the ball over and (2) if it means the opposing teams make more of their shots, forcing turnovers may not be worth it. For being such a big team, the Hoyas are surprisingly mediocre at protecting the glass, taking in only 66.4% of missed shots, 174th best. Interestingly, Hoya opponents shoot 71.1% from the line, 272nd best/worst. Stylistically this is an interesting stat: are the rims more friendly than normal in a team's home gym? Is a team just unlucky? Or do they tend to foul perimeter guys, who tend to be good foul shooters? I suspect this last is most important, but can't say for sure.

MATCHUPS
Daequan Cook only plays about half the minutes, but when he's in, he makes sure his presence is felt, taking 29.7% of shots when he's in the game. He's Ohio State's best 3-point shooter at 42.2%, but is comparatively unimpressive on 2's, hitting a mere 47.0%.

Jamar Butler plays the most of any Buckeye, but doesn't take that many shots (15.4%), and most of those are from long range (190 attempts from beyond the arc, 58 from inside).

Hibbert, Green, Ewing, and Summers are all very good shot blockers, and should be as taller as the man they're guarding (except whoever's one Oden when Hibbert is out). How will the Buckeyes make sure they get their shots up?

Greg Oden has never played against somebody taller than him (well, at least not in a game in the past couple years). How will he handle playing somebody he can't look over?

Mike Conley may not be much of a distance shooter (30.2% on 3's, though he has looked better since the beginning of the year), but he takes (and makes) good shots (57.5% on 2's). Whose job is it to stop his dribble penetration?

The Buckeyes have four guys who've taken at least 125 3 pointers this year. None is as good as Wallace, nor as bad as Sapp. Will somebody have an exceptionally good or exceptionally bad night from beyond the arc? If somebody is having a good game, will the Hoyas adjust to defend against one of a couple different players who can shoot from range?


WHAT I HOPE FOR
A repeat of last year's game. Georgetown using its size advantage effectively. Precision execution. Greg Oden being frustrated. Mike Conley without more than a steal or two.

WHAT I FEAR
The game decided on whether Wonk's statement applies better to Oden or Hibbert. Mike Conley with a triple double. Greg Oden's presence forcing too many outside shots from Sapp and Summers. Hot Buckeye three point shooting. Thad Matta's ABC gum. Oden and Hunter dominating the offensive boards.

PREDICTION
Hoyas, 70-62. I feel MUCH better about this game after going through this preview. These two teams do a lot of the same things well, but the Hoyas do most of them a little bit better.

Analysis: Breaking Down Belmont and Anticipating the Eagles

As noted by the Washington Post's Camille Powell, as the first round game between No. 2 Georgetown and No. 15 Belmont wound down on Thursday, the Hoyas' fans began a chant of "Where is Belmont?" Belmont fans quickly countered with "What's a Hoya?" Touche, Bruins. Touche.

Unfortunately for them, it was the only counter Belmont found all day against Georgetown, as the Hoyas cruised in their NCAA Tournament opener.

There's not a lot to analyze from a 25 point victory that was essentially over at the half, but a few bullet points:

• Jesse Sapp's perimeter game is back on track after missing 25 of 27 three-point attempts since his three huge shots from behind the arc against Villanova, Feb. 17. If he stays hot, that would be a huge help to Georgetown as they try to break down opponents playing zone defensive schemes.

• Lackadaisical turnovers are still problematic for the Hoyas. Sapp and freshman DaJuan Summers especially have had recent trouble in this regard and also accounted for 6 of the Hoyas' 12 turnovers against Belmont. GU was also lucky to avoid a few more bobbles by regaining possession. These kinds of errors would be a killer if the Hoyas were to advance and face North Carolina. Better focus will be needed.

• Jeff Green played well, but picked up two quick unnecessary fouls. You can't fault a guy for being aggressive, but Green needs to be smarter from here out. The Hoyas' bench is adequate, but replacing a player of Green's caliber is virtually impossible.

• One benefit of that foul trouble was that Green, and also Roy Hibbert, spent a lot of time on the bench. The two only played 45 minutes combined and should be well rested against B.C.

Boston College entered the tournament having dropped 5 of their last 7 games and have not mustered much swagger since an awful performance at home against Duke derailed them on Feb. 14. During that game, the Eagles essentially gave up on a number of fast break points by the Blue Devils.

B.C. is a moody team and that attitude has been almost as problematic as the team's non-existent defense. The Eagles are 202nd in the nation in scoring defense, allowing opponents to shoot 44.4% against them on average. Without shot blocker Sean Williams roaming the lane anymore, Georgetown should be able to expoit B.C. inside. And if the Hoyas get up early and frustrate B.C.'s three-headed scoring monster of Sean Marshall, Tyrese Rice and ACC Player of the Year Jared Dudley, then B.C. might go quietly. Assuming they will do so against a former Big East rival however, is probably wishful thinking.

One final note to be made is the recent defensive performance of GU's Summers. Lately Summers has been superb in generating turnovers by deflecting passes, stripping careless ball handlers and using his long wingspan to block shots. In doing so, Summers is anticipating well and is turning into a tremendous weakside defender.

His face up defense has been another issue. Against speedy point guard Tory Jackson of Notre Dame, Summers looked badly outmatched, as Jackson blew by him at least twice for easy layups in the Big East Tournament Semifinals. If Georgetown decides to match up Summers with Dudley, it could be a tough assignment. Don't be surprised to see Patrick Ewing Jr. and Jeremiah Rivers get some run, as the Hoyas try to contest the Eagles' perimeter game.

Analysis: Belmont Team Preview

While checking out other basketball sites, I found a nice preview on Section Six for the NC St. / Drexel NIT game - I'm going to steal his format for a Belmont preview.

Scouting Report / Game Plan
Season Stats
Schedule
Roster
HoyaSaxa Pregame Report

Belmont Offense '06 -'07

				Value					Rank
		Adj. Off. Eff.		103.9					141
		eFG%		54.9					15
		TO%		22.9					261
		OR%		34.5					140
		FTM/FGA		22.2					261

Looking at the Bruins' tempo-free offensive stats is a bit like looking in the mirror for the Hoyas. Belmont does a good job getting value for the shots they take, but doesn't protect the ball as well as they should. The teams shoot very well on 2-pt. (BU = 54.8; GU = 58.4) and slightly above average on 3-pt. (36.7; 36.6). The Bruins have taken 785 3-pt. on the season (~24/game); G'town, not shy about shooting from outside, averages ~17/game. But Belmont has a mediocre offensive efficiency as a whole, because the team isn't able to control their offensive board and struggles to get to the line (likely due to the 3-pt. shot being so integral to their offense).


Probable Starters
Andy Wicke (6'2", 195, #20) - Very good outside shooter (75-164, (0.457) 3-pt.), best assist man on the team. Has started the last 9 games, and has made 38 3-pt. over that stretch. Almost exclusively an outside shooter.

Josh Goodwin(6,3", 205, #4) - The third of the 4 big outside shooters by number taken, but the least accurate (41-128, (0.320) 3-pt.) of the core shooters on the team; he's the one you want to force to beat you from behind the arc. Having said that, he recently went 4-6 and 3-5 from outside in back-to-back games.

Matthew Dotson (6'8", 220, #30) - The last of the main outside threats, despite often being one of the tallest Bruins on the court (Pittsnogle lite?). A decent shooter on the year (43-121, (0.355) 3-pt) who's been on a tear his last five games (15-32 3-pt). Can hit the defensive glass, but not strong on ORs.

Henry Harris (6'1", 170, #40) - I have no idea why he's starting ahead of Hare (see below). A poor shooter (0.339 3-pt), a walking turnover (TO Rate = 31.9), and undersized. He has a nice steal rate (2.3), so I suspect he's in there for his hustle and defense; the team has improved significantly there from last season. May be their version of J. Rivers.

Andrew Preston (6'10", 210, #45) - The starting center, he's very efficient by taking close-in shots and making them (104-166 (0.627) 2-pt.). A capable rebounder, especially on offense (OR% = 13.9 [36th nationally]), he'll have to use his length to make up for a decided lack of beef against the bigger Hoyas.

Two guys who should be starting

Justin Hare (6'2", 195, #24) - MVP of the A-Sun Tournament, 1st team All-Conference, 2nd team Academic All-American. A capable shooter from outside (eFG% = 54.0; 59-155 (0.381) 3-pt.), but willing to go inside to score or get to the line. If Georgetown tries to force Belmont to shoot off the dribble, he will likely be least effected.

Boomer Herndon (6'10", 255, #32) - The Belmont fan who posted on HoyaTalk indicated that his weight might be a touch higher than listed, and that his minutes can be limited due to conditioning. His statistics indicate an exceptional scorer (148-238 (0.622) 2-pt.) and rebounder (DR% = 21.6 [76]; OR% = 14.2 [28]), but also a black-hole on offense (32.4% shots; ARate = 7.8).

Other Guys who will play

Shane Dansby, Keaton Belcher, Will Peeples

Belmont Defense '06 -'07

				Value					Rank
		Adj. Def. Eff.		99.1					119
		eFG%		43.2					4
		TO%		19.2					264
		OR%		33.4					162
		FTM/FGA		36.3					166

The Bruins defense improved this year from lousy (250th by KenPom) to serviceable. Actually, what Belmont has done is improve their 3-pt. defense to 1st overall (28.3% allowed), which had lead to a very low eFG% against. If you could only be good at one thing on defense, forcing your opponent into a poor shooting percentage is it. Credit Coach Byrd for recognizing a team strength.

Unfortunately for Belmont, Georgetown is not a team that depends upon hitting from outside to establish their offense (a la Notre Dame). The Bruins like a game pace in the mid-60s, but expect Georgetown to slow down the game and force their opponent to work hard on defense (especially Mr. Herndon).


And if you're still reading, the NYTimes reports that Dick Enberg and Jay Bilas will call the Winston-Salem games.

Round 3: GU-Nova -- Big East Quarterfinals

The Hoyas and the Wildcats are preparing to do battle for the third time this season, after Villanova dispatched DePaul in the first round of the Big East Tournament Wednesday afternoon. While Villanova enters the game as the No. 9 seed in the conference, it will likely feel pretty good about its chances against No. 1 Georgetown, splitting the season series with the Hoyas in a pair of close games.

Both previous affairs were low scoring, with Nova using its lanky guards to disrupt entry passes to center Roy Hibbert, while the Hoyas' big men asserted themselves defensively with 14 blocks. Eight of those were by newly-minted Big East Player of the Year Jeff Green, whose pull up jumper in the waning seconds gave Georgetown the win.

While most Georgetown fans probably don't like the prospect of running into a team that has shut down Hibbert twice this season at all, more or less this early in the Big East Tournament, the game will likely give the Hoyas an opportunity to try to overcome their two biggest weaknesses — turnovers (21 in the Jan. 8 game) and getting the ball to Hibbert under duress (a combined 4 field goal attempts in the two games). Trying to overcome those factors ought to provide a stern test heading into the NCAA Tournament and success should steel the Hoyas for a Final Four run.

If the Hoyas again cannot feed Hibbert down low, they will likely need their perimeter players to step up. In Georgetown's 58-55 victory on Feb. 17, it took a 3-for-4 performance by Jessie Sapp to stop a Hoya swoon late in the first half and regain the lead in the second. And that included a practiced-but-still-miraculous three-quarter court heave just before halftime. Freshman Dajuan Summers remains cold from the perimeter, hitting just two of his last 20 three point attempts.

Villanova will almost certainly be battling some measure of fatigue, given the 24-hour turnaround. Also not helping is an ankle injury to senior Mike Nardi that limited him to two minutes in the DePaul game and essentially forced the Wildcats into a six man rotation. Freshman Reggie Redding (9 points vs. DePaul) played a season-high 35 minutes, starting in Nardi's absence.

Senior Curtis Sumpter and freshman Scottie Reynolds accounted for 72-percent of the scoring against DePaul and will likely have to carry the load again. Jessie Sapp kept Reynolds in check in the latter part of the Feb. 17 meeting and should match up again tomorrow.

GU-UCONN Pre-Game Analysis

After a blowout loss to Syracuse at the Carrier Dome, Georgetown still controls its own destiny, owning the tie-breaker against the Pittsburgh Panthers. So, when the Hoyas face a pedestrian UConn team today at Verizon Center, a victory would clinch the Big East regular season title and the No. 1 seed in the Big East Tournament.

UConn enters the game after a gut-wrenching loss to Villanova on Wednesday night and no hope at making the NCAA Tournament as an at large bid. Given the season the Huskies have had, they certainly could roll over today, but given the history between these schools, that could be wishful thinking.

To claim the Big East title, the Hoyas will have to beat UConn's trademark full-court pressure and half-court trapping defense. In losses to Villanova and Syracuse, tough defensive pressure has led to a staggering number of turnovers, something the limited-possession offense of the Hoyas can ill-afford. UConn will look to push the tempo today and hope that their much-hyped, but still very raw, freshman center Hasheem Thabeet can hold down Roy Hibbert in the paint. If Georgetown gets in trouble, look for the Hoyas to put the Huskies on the line, where their free throw percentage resembles something akin to the odds of winning the Virginia Lottery.

This is the final home game in the careers of Sead Dizdarevic and Kenny Izzo, two long-time, depth players for the Hoyas, but also two fan favorites due to their limited playing time. It may also be the final home game for Georgetown junior Jeff Green, who could very well test the waters of the NBA Draft after his stock has surged over the course of GU's 11-game winning streak.

Pre-Game Analysis: GU vs. Syracuse

With history to be made by the 2006-07 Georgetown Hoyas, it is fitting that the game that could clinch a share of the Big East regular season title and a program record 12th straight win comes against rival Syracuse in the Carrier Dome. After beating Pittsburgh to take the lead in the Big East on Saturday, a victory tonight will give Georgetown all of the necessary tie-breakers to secure the No. 1 seed in the Big East Tournament.

Despite a Syracuse team that has played weaker than many previous incarnations, the Orange will present a formidable challenge, not only given their rivalry with the Hoyas, but also the status of their postseason hopes. Even after four straight wins, Syracuse currently resides firmly on the bubble after a pre-conference schedule yielded no wins of note. A win tonight, paired with an earlier win over Marquette, would give them two quality victories on the season, as well as 10 wins in the Big East, which should be enough to get them into the tournament provided they don't lose to Villanova and again in the first round of the Big East Tournament. Coupling that desire with a quick turnaround after Saturday's game, bad traveling conditions on Sunday for Georgetown and an arena in which the Hoyas have not won since 2002 is probably why Washington Post columnist Mike Wilbon picked the Orange to upset the Hoyas on Tony Kornheiser's radio show Monday Morning.

The Hoyas do have momentum, having won 11 in a row, as well as a sterling road resume. Winners of 9 of 11 games on the road this season, Georgetown owns the most visiting victories of any major conference team this season. Those two losses came to Duke (at Cameron Indoor) and to Pittsburgh (at the Peterson Events Center) two of the toughest venues in college basketball. The Carrier Dome, with its high crowd capacity and vacuous feel, could be an equally daunting environment, especially considering that Georgetown will likely have to have a solid game from behind the arc to win. In seven of Syracuse's eight losses, they allowed eight or more three pointers to their opponents.

While Georgetown is third in the Big East in three-point field goal percentage (just behind Syracuse), the Hoyas have only scored eight or more threes three times during conference play this season (Cincinnati, DePaul and Notre Dame). The Hoyas prefer to pound the ball inside to center Roy Hibbert and floating post man Jeff Green. To do that, they will have to dissect the Orange's trademark 2-3 zone. Expect Green to cut frequently to the foul line. If he gets the ball in the high post, Green will be a extremely problematic for Syracuse. He's been very adept of late at knocking down mid-range jump shots, and his vision and passing skills will allow him to dump it down to the low post or to an open teammate behind the arc if his shot isn't there.

Jon Wallace, who arugably turned in the best game of his career against Pittsburgh, will have to provide some shooting touch from the perimeter, as the streaky Summers has been cool of late, hitting just one of his last 13 three-point attempts since a torrid four of six clip in wins over Marquette and West Virginia.

Defensively Georgetown will have to bottle up Big East scoring leader Demetris Nichols and Eric Devendorf. The Hoyas have employed a very effective 2-3 zone of late, but don't be surprised to see defensive catalyst Patrick Ewing Jr. take on Nichols in man-to-man sets. Syracuse freshman Paul Harris could be an X factor for the Orange. Head Coach Jim Boeheim has largely kept the highly-regarded Harris in check this season, but after scoring 16 points against UConn Feb. 17, he was rewarded with 32 minutes of playing time against Providence last Saturday. He only scored six points in that time against the Friars, but he has had a knack for getting to the foul line this season. Boeheim may insert him if he is looking to get Green or Hibbert to the bench with foul trouble.

Pre-Game Analysis: GU vs. Pitt (2/24/07)

The last time these two teams met, Georgetown held Aaron Gray to 11 pts. and 4 reb., shot 60-percent from the field ... and lost. So what accounted for the 74-69 Pitt victory at Peterson Events Center? To reference Rockaway's earlier post, it may have been Mighty Mo.

From the 1:32 mark in the first half to the 17:16 mark in the second, Pittsburgh took a five point lead and grew it to 15. Every time Georgetown would pull within striking distance from then on, Pitt would extend the lead, largely through the play of their guards. Led by Mike Cook's 18 points, his high water mark on the season, the Panthers attacked Georgetown's defense, using quick passes to find open teammates (22 assists on 28 field goal attempts) or earning a trip to the free throw line, where they hit 15 of 19 free throws.

Since that game, the Hoyas have embarked on a 10-game winning streak and are now playing their best basketball of the season. Georgetown tops the Big East in scoring defense at 57.9 points allowed per game, and held Marquette and West Virginia under 60 points in two victories.

Part of that can be attributed to a more patient Hoya defense. Rather than biting on ball fakes and over pursuing as they did early in the season, Georgetown defenders are staying put, satisfied with creating poor shooting opportunities rather than turnovers. The Hoyas have been clogging the passing lanes and funnelling their opponents towards shot blockers Roy Hibbert and Jeff Green. It will be interesting to see if Pitt's guards are able to get the Hoyas to chase them, or if a more static defense can tame a Panther offense that shot 59.6 percent in the teams' first meeting.

As the rematch at Verizon Center approaches on Saturday, ESPN's Andy Katz and the Associated Press are reporting a strong possibility that Gray may not be ready to go after suffering a foot/ankle injury in the late minutes of last weekend's non-conference game with Washington. Absent the seven-footer on Monday, Pitt narrowly escaped an upset at the hands of Seton Hall, 71-68. Of course, the statements could just be gamesmanship on the part of Pitt Head Coach Jamie Dixon.

While Gray's absence may not affect the guard play that troubled Georgetown last time, it may swing the rebounding edge dramatically towards the Hoyas. While Pitt held a 18-15 advantage on the boards against Georgetown, it struggled mightily without their seven-foot center against a poor-rebounding Seton Hall team, claiming 31 caroms to the Pirates' 30. That would be the same Seton Hall team that the Hoyas out-rebounded 38-8 earlier this season.

If Gray were to miss the game, Dixon could try to go small and push the tempo, though that is not Pitt's style. Like the Hoyas, the Panthers prefer to play the possession game, averaging 67.3 ppg this season, while allowing just 59. 1. However, a possession-style game without Gray in the middle would strongly favor Georgetown. If Dixon thinks a change is needed, it's possible he could try to double- or triple-team Hibbert, as Cincinnati did this past Wednesday when the Bearcats held him to seven points on four field goal attempts.

With or without Gray, expect a hard-nosed game at Verizon Center, with Pitt's guards trying to take the ball at both Hibbert and Green to try to draw fouls and force them to the bench. The Panthers (.392 percent from behind the arc, No. 2 in the Big East behind Georgetown) could launch a long range assault too. Cincinnati had early success against Georgetown with a barrage of three-pointers before the Bearcats' poor-execution (two points in the last 4:19 of the first half and 17 turnovers in the game) allowed Georgetown back in the game. A similar start from a better-controlled, better-shooting team, like Pitt, could spell trouble for the Hoyas.

If Georgetown is allowed to control the tempo and Green and Hibbert establish themselves, however, Pitt will have plenty of problems at Verizon Center, seven-foot Player of the Year candidate or no.