The last time these two teams met, Georgetown held Aaron Gray to 11 pts. and 4 reb., shot 60-percent from the field ... and lost. So what accounted for the 74-69 Pitt victory at Peterson Events Center? To reference Rockaway's earlier post, it may have been Mighty Mo.
From the 1:32 mark in the first half to the 17:16 mark in the second, Pittsburgh took a five point lead and grew it to 15. Every time Georgetown would pull within striking distance from then on, Pitt would extend the lead, largely through the play of their guards. Led by Mike Cook's 18 points, his high water mark on the season, the Panthers attacked Georgetown's defense, using quick passes to find open teammates (22 assists on 28 field goal attempts) or earning a trip to the free throw line, where they hit 15 of 19 free throws.
Since that game, the Hoyas have embarked on a 10-game winning streak and are now playing their best basketball of the season. Georgetown tops the Big East in scoring defense at 57.9 points allowed per game, and held Marquette and West Virginia under 60 points in two victories.
Part of that can be attributed to a more patient Hoya defense. Rather than biting on ball fakes and over pursuing as they did early in the season, Georgetown defenders are staying put, satisfied with creating poor shooting opportunities rather than turnovers. The Hoyas have been clogging the passing lanes and funnelling their opponents towards shot blockers Roy Hibbert and Jeff Green. It will be interesting to see if Pitt's guards are able to get the Hoyas to chase them, or if a more static defense can tame a Panther offense that shot 59.6 percent in the teams' first meeting.
As the rematch at Verizon Center approaches on Saturday, ESPN's Andy Katz and the Associated Press are reporting a strong possibility that Gray may not be ready to go after suffering a foot/ankle injury in the late minutes of last weekend's non-conference game with Washington. Absent the seven-footer on Monday, Pitt narrowly escaped an upset at the hands of Seton Hall, 71-68. Of course, the statements could just be gamesmanship on the part of Pitt Head Coach Jamie Dixon.
While Gray's absence may not affect the guard play that troubled Georgetown last time, it may swing the rebounding edge dramatically towards the Hoyas. While Pitt held a 18-15 advantage on the boards against Georgetown, it struggled mightily without their seven-foot center against a poor-rebounding Seton Hall team, claiming 31 caroms to the Pirates' 30. That would be the same Seton Hall team that the Hoyas out-rebounded 38-8 earlier this season.
If Gray were to miss the game, Dixon could try to go small and push the tempo, though that is not Pitt's style. Like the Hoyas, the Panthers prefer to play the possession game, averaging 67.3 ppg this season, while allowing just 59. 1. However, a possession-style game without Gray in the middle would strongly favor Georgetown. If Dixon thinks a change is needed, it's possible he could try to double- or triple-team Hibbert, as Cincinnati did this past Wednesday when the Bearcats held him to seven points on four field goal attempts.
With or without Gray, expect a hard-nosed game at Verizon Center, with Pitt's guards trying to take the ball at both Hibbert and Green to try to draw fouls and force them to the bench. The Panthers (.392 percent from behind the arc, No. 2 in the Big East behind Georgetown) could launch a long range assault too. Cincinnati had early success against Georgetown with a barrage of three-pointers before the Bearcats' poor-execution (two points in the last 4:19 of the first half and 17 turnovers in the game) allowed Georgetown back in the game. A similar start from a better-controlled, better-shooting team, like Pitt, could spell trouble for the Hoyas.
If Georgetown is allowed to control the tempo and Green and Hibbert establish themselves, however, Pitt will have plenty of problems at Verizon Center, seven-foot Player of the Year candidate or no.
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