Showing posts with label fast breaks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fast breaks. Show all posts

Saturday, December 26, 2009

Big East HD Box Scores - This time I mean it . . . maybe

West Virginia and Seton Hall tipped of the Big East regular season tonight with a 90-84 OT win for the Mountaineers in their game at the Prudential Center.

Last year I attempted to post HD box scores for as many Big East teams as possible, during conference play.  I made it almost until the end of January, when real life circumstances reduced my free time to virtually nil.

Foolishly, I'm going to try it again this year, starting with tonight's game.

Here's the deal - if the school posts usable play-by-play data on their team page, I will maintain a page for them with all available conference games posted (home and road).  If a school doesn't have the requisite info available, I'm not going to bother keeping a page.  I've played around a bit with an alternative source for play-by-play data [StatSheet.com], but it's not playing nice with my compiler so I'm going to limit things to just the official athletic department sites (links are in the table).

If you are interested in a box score for a team without "good" play-by-play, you should be able to find it whenever they play a "Yes" team from the table below.  St. John's is a unique case, where I believe those games played at Carnesecca Arena will have the info I need, but MSG games will not.  I'll keep a page going for the Johnnies, even though that's only four home games this season.  Obviously, any available road games will also be posted.

If you are a fan of one of the "No" schools and would like to see these HD box scores, please e-mail or call your Sports Information Director (SID) or equivalent and ask them to start posting the play-by-play.  I believe most (all?) teams are using StatCrew software, so they should be able to provide the play-by-play if they wanted [MSG games excepted].

Here's what I've got planned for this year:
School           PBP Good?      Comments
Cincinnati         No           No substitution data at team site
Connecticut        No           Seem to provide opponents' stat package
DePaul             No           Box score only at team site
Georgetown         Yes          Preferred style
Louisville         Yes          Same format as G'town
Marquette          Yes          Same format as G'town
Notre Dame         Yes          No 2nd half box score; can handle this
Pittsburgh         Yes          No 2nd half box score; can handle this
Providence         No           Box score only at team site
Rutgers            No           Box score only at team site
St. John's        Maybe         On-campus games only; MSG games have box score only
Seton Hall         Yes          Only pbp and final box score; can handle this
South Florida      No           No substitution data
Syracuse           No           Box score only at team site
Villanova          Yes          Same format as G'town
West Virginia      No           Box score only at team site

To view available box scores, just click on the Big East HD Box Scores link at the top right of the page (just below "Tempo-Free Stats 101"). That will bring you to the Georgetown page, then just click on the link for any available team.  For tonight, here's the direct link to the West Virginia-Seton Hall HD Box score.

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While I'm here, I thought I'd mention that I've added another line to the HD box score.  Going back to an early attempt at tracking fast breaks, I'm now tracking points scored after steals and Off. Efficiency on possessions generated by steals (rather than "points off turnovers", which you can find in most detailed box scores).  If you stop and think about it, this efficiency is simply points after steals divided by steals [then multiplied by 100], but I'll save you the trouble of doing the math.

I'd say that this feature is still in the beta phase, meaning that I've only just added it and am still testing as I go.  Turns out that tonight's game was a lousy test since Seton Hall just doesn't give up the ball very often (WVU had only 1 steal!!).

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Tracking fast break points

A question came up on HoyaTalk about the perception that Georgetown is running (and scoring) more this season.

Fast break information is available in the play-by-play data, but not in a very satisfying form. Here's what I had to say about it in that thread:
I'm not a big fan of the way fast breaks are tracked by the play-by-play for a couple of reasons:
  • fast breaks are only noted on made baskets, so if a player misses a shot or turns the ball over on a fast break, it's not recorded as a failed fast break
  • more importantly, players who get fouled on a fast break (without making a basket) don't have their made FTs noted as resulting from a fast break, so fast break points from the play-by-play are generally lower than the actual points generated by the fast break in a game

I also promised to have some more info about fast break points later this week. I guess it's getting to be later in the week, so I've tried to come up with something. Any feedback on this would be greatly appreciated.

At the bottom of each HD box score, I'll add two additional lines that I hope will give some additional information about how each team performed on offense.

As an example, here would be the revised box footer for the Georgetown/Drexel game:
Efficiency: Georgetown 1.141, DREXEL 0.736
eFG%: Georgetown 0.585, DREXEL 0.311
Substitutions: Georgetown 29, DREXEL 28

2-pt Shot Selection:
Dunks: Georgetown 3-3, DREXEL 0-2
Layups/Tips: Georgetown 16-20, DREXEL 3-11
Jumpers: Georgetown 3-9, DREXEL 3-22

Fast break pts: Georgetown 16 (0.258), DREXEL 5 (0.152)
Seconds per off. poss: Georgetown 17.8, DREXEL 15.6

The second-from-last line is labeled rather unambiguously, but the numbers will need further explanation
  • The first number is indeed points scored on plays indicated as fast breaks in the play-by-play. However, as I noted above, the play-by-play doesn't track points scored on FTs scored when a player is fouled in transition.
  • The second number is my feeble attempt to deal with this. This is the ratio of fast break points divided by total field goal points (i.e. total points - FTM). Here, I assume that the team will score roughly the same percentage of points shooting FTs from transition as from half-court offense. So, the value in parenthesis is a very approximate estimate of the percentage of points scored off of fast breaks in the game. Very approximate.
The final line is much simpler. It's merely the amount of time each team spent on offense, divided by the number of possessions each team had on offense. Teams that score a lot on transition will have shorter time/poss than teams that run a deliberate offense. However, there is a confounding effect since turnovers will also shorten possessions. [The work-around would be to report time per scoring possession, but that's not something I currently track, so this will have to suffice for now.] I'm not sure exactly what we could learn from this stat, but it's easy enough to generate; I'll start spitting it out along with the fast break tracker.


Finally, I thought I'd take a look at fast break points for the first five games from last and this season, to see if the team really is getting out more in transition, and how much so:
2007                                   2008
Opponent* Fast br pts (%) Opponent Fast br pts (%)
William & Mary 0 (0.000) Jacksonville 10 (0.213)
Michigan 0 (0.000) Drexel 16 (0.258)
@ Ball State 10 (0.204) Wichita State 16 (0.432)
Fairfield 4 (0.077) Tennessee 6 (0.102)
@ Alabama 5 (0.094) Maryland 4 (0.068)
Total 19 (0.058) Total 52 (0.143)
*PBP not available for the game at ODU

And there it is - five games into the season, the Hoyas are scoring about 2.5 times as many points on transition as they did last year. Or, another way to look at this: last season, Georgetown outscored their opponent in transition twice in the first 5 games, while this year the Hoyas have done it 4 out of 5 games.

Edited: Numbers now corrected after finding bug in fast break retrieval (see comments).