Monday, March 12, 2007

Analysis: Belmont Season Performance

If you're not a regular to this site, check these previous posts where I consider performance against the spread, offensive and defensive efficiencies' contributions to performance, and a comparison between the performance of G'town and Villanova as the season progressed.

Today, I'll post Belmont's component and total performance data.

First, here are Belmont's offensive and defensive efficiencies, accounting for the opponent (as always, click any image to enlarge):


Belmont has shown a fairly significant upswing in their offensive performance since mid-February, with average to exceptional offensive outputs over the last 7 games (saving the best for last, in the conference finals).


The defense for Belmont had been wildly inconsistent early in the year, but has gelled into a dependable unit since mid-January.

Overall Performance

Since the team defense has stabilized, Belmont's offense has been able to dictate game outcomes over the last few weeks, and this has lead to the impressive 7 game winning streak to close the conference regular season and tournament, with an average margin of victory of 21 points.

More importantly, keeping in mind that Georgetown will be ~18 pt favorite (assuming a pace of 61 possessions), Belmont has shown twice this year that they are capable of playing well enough to win outright against the Hoyas, including the last game they played.

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