Saturday, March 5, 2011

Recap: Cincinnati 69, Georgetown 47

Picture from here.
The Georgetown Hoyas played a competitive 30 minutes before getting blown off the court at the Fifth Third Arena today by the Cincinnati Bearcats, 69-47.

At this point, I think there are two ways to look at how the Hoyas are playing at the end of the conference schedule:
  1. It's not as bad as you think.  Georgetown has lost 4 of 5 games, but has only been non-competitive at the end in two of those games - both versus Cincinnati.  Both at UConn and versus Syracuse, the games came down to the last few possessions and the opponent did enough to win.  Maybe the Bearcats are simply the perfect matchup against the Hoyas this season, and Georgetown isn't winning whether Chris Wright is available or not (they were down 7 in the second half when Wright was hurt in the first game).

  2. The ship be sinking.  Georgetown is playing like a dead man walking right now.  Austin Freeman is about the lone credible threat on offense, and everyone knows it and is forcing him to either give up the ball or take a tough shot.  Let's face it, Freeman is not Kemba Walker and is never going to create many shots for himself.  Meanwhile, Julian Vaughn and Jason Clark, the only upperclassmen capable of covering for the loss of Wright's scoring and leadership, instead have disappeared.

I wish I could tell you definitively that it's scenario #1, but I can't.

I don't think the season is over - with the current personnel, the Hoyas should be able to win at least one game in each of their next two tournaments - but there is certainly some truth to the notion that expectations should be at a season-low.

Georgetown simply isn't making shots, either inside or outside.  And without the ability to play lockdown, stifling defense for 40 minutes (or even 20 minutes), the Hoyas just can't win without making those shots.


Let's run the numbers:


TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Visitor                         Home      
.            Georgetown                      Cincinnati         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            28        31        59

Points          24        23        47          30        39        69   

Effic.         86.1      74.8      80.1       107.7     126.8     117.6  
 
eFG%           37.5      34.0      35.8        47.6      59.5      53.6  
TO%             7.2      16.3      11.9        25.1      13.0      18.7  
OR%            22.2      21.1      21.6        38.5      25.0      32.0  
FTA/FGA        14.3      40.0      26.4        57.1      85.7      71.4  
 
Assist Rate    66.7      25.0      47.1        37.5      70.0      55.6  
Block Rate     10.0      10.0      10.0        10.0      13.3      11.4  
Steal Rate     14.4       6.5      10.2         3.6       0.0       1.7  
 
2FG%           30.0      46.7      37.1        40.0      50.0      45.0  
3FG%           37.5      10.0      22.2        36.4      45.5      40.9  
FT%            75.0      60.0      64.3        83.3      77.8      80.0

Just a few salient points here below the jump:
  • Austin Freeman may receive some grief for his 7/23 shooting day.  Certainly you'd like to see him shoot better than 1/7 on 3FG.  But who is he taking shots from?  Nate Lubick and Hollis Thompson had nice shooting games today [6/9 2FG, 2/3 3FG combined], but those are low-usage players not comfortable putting up a lot of shots.  The rest of Austin's teammates - mostly Clark and Vaughn - managed 1/10 2FG, 1/8 3FG.  Markel Starks failed to take a shot from the floor.
  • Until Chris Wright was hurt, the Hoyas had managed to have only one truly poor shooting game [<45% eFG] the entire season (versus Pitt).  Georgetown has failed to reach 45% eFG each of the past three games [30%, 43%, 36%].
  • In their past 12 conference games, the Bearcats have managed to shoot 44% [=16/36] from behind the arc against the Hoyas and 30% [=55/181] against everyone else.

One final thought about today's game:  with just under 9 minutes to go, Hollis Thompson made a 3FG off a pass from Austin Freeman to close the gap to 4 points.  I think most coverage will point to the fact that the Hoyas managed to score only 8 points the rest of the way (15 possessions) as Cincinnati blew the doors off the game.

But it wasn't just the offense that collapsed.

Up until that point, the Bearcats had managed 43 points on 43 possessions - that's 1.00 points per possession for the mathematically-challenged - while committing 11 turnovers (nearly one in four possessions played).  If you'd have offered me that defensive effort by the Hoyas before the game, I most certainly would have taken it.

The rest of the way, Cincinnati scored 26 points on 15 possessions without a single turnover, including a stretch of eight-straight possessions with at least one points scored.  At the end of that eight-possession stretch, the lead had ballooned to 18 points and the game was over.

Not only couldn't Georgetown score, they couldn't get stops either.  It's a 100% fatal combination.



INDIVIDUAL NET POINTS STATS

Georgetown            Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
Thompson, Hollis       52   12.9  131.6    8.9      52   109.5   11.4      -0.5  
Vaughn, Julian         22   20.0   23.7    1.0      24   115.4    5.5      -4.3  
Lubick, Nate           32   13.5  110.4    4.8      31   113.4    7.0      -1.2  
Freeman, Austin        54   45.1   81.2   19.8      54   113.6   12.3      -0.2  
Clark, Jason           51   21.5   44.4    4.9      50   105.5   10.5      -6.2  
Starks, Markel         23    5.0   29.9    0.3      22   135.2    5.9      -3.4  
Sanford, Vee           12    1.9  233.3    0.5      14   105.4    3.0      -1.1  
Dougherty, Ryan         3    0.0    -      0.0       3    66.7    0.4      -0.4  
Sims, Henry            23   16.7   74.5    2.9      21    88.6    3.7      -0.7  
Benimon, Jerrelle      14    3.7  200.0    1.0      14   129.6    3.6      -1.1  
Ayegba, Moses           9   22.2    0.0    0.0      10   102.0    2.0      -2.0  
TOTALS                 59          75.3   44.1      59   111.0   65.5     -21.2  

Cincinnati            Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
BISHOP, Rashad         40   12.1   42.9    2.1      40    91.5    7.3      -3.8  
THOMAS, Ibrahima       26   29.6   70.0    5.4      25    87.5    4.4      -0.2  
GATES, Yancy           45   16.5  157.9   11.8      44    75.9    6.7      +5.6  
WRIGHT, Cashmere       36   26.7   80.9    7.8      37    75.4    5.6      +1.4  
DIXON, Dion            42   26.9  128.3   14.5      41    86.0    7.1      +6.1  
TYREE, Eddie            3   33.3    0.0    0.0       3    80.0    0.5      -0.6  
JACKSON, Justin        11    8.4  100.0    0.9      10    83.2    1.7      -0.3  
EPPENSTEINER, Alex      1   50.0  200.0    1.0       1   200.0    0.4      +0.3  
DAVIS, Larry           21   12.2   66.7    1.7      21    79.5    3.3      -1.0  
WILKS, Darnell         22   14.7  173.5    5.6      25    55.8    2.8      +3.3  
KILPATRICK, Sean       34   16.1  156.1    8.5      34    77.3    5.3      +3.8  
McBRIDE, Anthony        2    0.0    -      0.0       2   100.0    0.4      -0.4  
McCLAIN, Anthony        9   15.4  258.1    3.6       9    49.0    0.9      +2.8  
PARKER, JaQuon          3    0.0    -      0.0       3    80.0    0.5      -0.5  
TOTALS                 59         112.3   62.8      59    79.2   46.7     +17.8

Stats pages will be updated tomorrow.


HD BOX SCORE

Georgetown vs Cincinnati
03/05/11 2 p.m. at Cincinnati, Ohio (Fifth Third Arena)
Final score: Cincinnati 69, Georgetown 47

Georgetown              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
Thompson, Hollis       34:24  -16  12/40  3- 5  2- 3  0- 0  8/46  0/10  0/52  0/52  0/15  1/34  3/23   2
Vaughn, Julian         16:21  -18   0/13  0- 4  0- 0  0- 0  4/20  1/ 5  1/24  0/22  2/10  1/16  1/ 8   4
Lubick, Nate           22:19  -11   6/22  3- 4  0- 0  0- 2  4/31  1/ 6  0/31  0/32  0/10  1/23  0/14   4
Freeman, Austin        36:12  -18  21/45  6-16  1- 7  6- 6 23/51  4/ 9  0/54  1/54  0/17  0/35  3/23   2
Clark, Jason           34:42  -18   5/43  0- 2  1- 8  2- 2 10/45  1/14  3/50  2/51  0/18  0/30  2/21   3
Starks, Markel         14:22  -13   0/19  0- 0  0- 0  0- 1  0/18  1/ 6  1/22  1/23  0/ 8  0/13  0/ 9   1
Sanford, Vee           08:55  - 9   0/ 7  0- 2  0- 0  0- 0  2/ 9  0/ 2  0/14  0/12  0/ 7  1/ 9  1/ 6   2
Dougherty, Ryan        01:46  + 0   0/ 2  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 1  0/ 1  0/ 3  0/ 3  0/ 2  0/ 2  0/ 2   0
Sims, Henry            15:45  + 3   3/22  1- 2  0- 0  1- 2  2/24  0/ 7  0/21  2/23  0/ 5  1/15  3/11   1
Benimon, Jerrelle      09:21  - 2   0/16  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/14  0/ 5  0/14  0/14  0/ 3  1/ 8  1/ 8   1
Ayegba, Moses          05:53  - 8   0/ 6  0- 0  0- 0  0- 1  0/ 6  0/ 3  1/10  1/ 9  0/ 5  0/ 5  2/ 5   0
TOTALS                 40:00       47    13-35  4-18  9-14    53  8/17  6/59  7/59  2/20  8/37 17/25  20
.                                        0.371 0.222 0.643       0.471 0.102 0.119 0.100 0.216 0.680    

Cincinnati              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
BISHOP, Rashad         28:28  +12   0/46  0- 0  0- 3  0- 0  3/29  2/11  0/40  2/40  1/26  1/18  5/26   1
THOMAS, Ibrahima       18:06  + 3   6/24  2- 3  0- 1  2- 2  4/17  0/ 3  0/25  3/26  1/16  1/14  3/14   3
GATES, Yancy           29:01  +19  13/50  0- 4  1- 1 10-10  5/31  1/11  0/44  1/45  1/28  0/19  5/28   2
WRIGHT, Cashmere       24:57  + 8   6/38  2- 3  0- 4  2- 2  7/28  4/ 9  1/37  2/36  0/23  0/17  2/23   1
DIXON, Dion            27:18  + 4  14/39  1- 5  2- 5  6- 8 10/27  3/ 6  0/41  1/42  0/25  1/20  3/24   2
TYREE, Eddie           01:46  + 0   0/ 2  0- 1  0- 0  0- 0  1/ 3  0/ 1  0/ 3  0/ 3  0/ 1  0/ 2  0/ 2   0
JACKSON, Justin        06:58  - 2   1/ 8  0- 0  0- 0  1- 2  0/ 9  0/ 3  0/10  0/11  0/ 9  0/ 6  1/ 8   2
EPPENSTEINER, Alex     00:38  + 0   2/ 2  1- 1  0- 0  0- 0  1/ 1  0/ 0  0/ 1  0/ 1  0/ 1  0/ 0  0/ 1   0
DAVIS, Larry           13:10  +14   3/29  0- 0  1- 2  0- 0  2/13  0/ 7  0/21  1/21  0/ 9  0/ 7  0/13   0
WILKS, Darnell         14:58  +19   8/37  1- 1  2- 2  0- 2  3/13  0/ 6  0/25  0/22  1/10  1/ 6  5/16   1
KILPATRICK, Sean       23:40  +29  13/54  1- 1  3- 4  2- 2  5/25  0/10  0/34  1/34  0/20  1/13  2/25   0
McBRIDE, Anthony       00:54  + 0   0/ 2  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 2  0/ 1  0/ 2  0/ 2  0/ 1  0/ 1  0/ 1   1
McCLAIN, Anthony       08:20  + 4   3/12  1- 1  0- 0  1- 2  1/ 9  0/ 3  0/ 9  0/ 9  0/ 5  1/ 5  1/ 7   1
PARKER, JaQuon         01:46  + 0   0/ 2  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 3  0/ 1  0/ 3  0/ 3  0/ 1  0/ 2  0/ 2   0
TOTALS                 40:00       69     9-20  9-22 24-30    42 10/18  1/59 11/59  4/35  8/25 29/37  14
.                                        0.450 0.409 0.800       0.556 0.017 0.186 0.114 0.320 0.784    

Efficiency: Cincinnati 1.169, Georgetown 0.797
eFG%: Cincinnati 0.536, Georgetown 0.358
Substitutions: Cincinnati 37, Georgetown 34

2-pt Shot Selection:
Dunks: Cincinnati 0-0, Georgetown 0-1
Layups/Tips: Cincinnati 8-11, Georgetown 7-13
Jumpers: Cincinnati 1-9, Georgetown 6-21

Fast break pts (% FG pts): Cincinnati 5 (11.1), Georgetown 4 (10.5)
Pts (eff.) after steal: Cincinnati 0 (0.0), Georgetown 4 (66.7)
Seconds per poss: Cincinnati 20.4, Georgetown 20.3



2 comments:

  1. I've watched Hollis play for a number of years (before and during his time at Gtown). At first I was surprised that you lumped Hollis with Nate as "low-usage players not comfortable putting up a lot of shots". This is the first time I've seen Hollis so under-utilized. His stats support the fact that he is a highly-effective and efficient shooter, but at Gtown, he doesn't get to take many shots, even when he's hot and calling for the ball.
    You may be right, Hollis does seems more comfortable in a more uptempo, fast-breaking offense, and when plays are called that allow him to get open looks by running his defenders off screens.
    By the way, Hoya Prospectus remains my favorite source for insightful analysis and commentary on what's happening with Georgetown basketball. Keep up the great work!

    ReplyDelete
  2. First, thanks for the compliment (and also thanks to those previous readers who've sent praise along). I don't respond to comments as often as I should, but it's always nice to know someone is reading.

    With regards to Hollis' usage, it should not be taken as a criticism of either him or the offense specifically. You may be right that he's more comfortable playing up-tempo (and who isn't?), but he'll end up being a much better player in the end by being forced to handle, distribute, rebound, etc. He'll effectively take Freeman's role next season.

    Unfortunately, that doesn't matter much right now - I think Hollis has been operating as the 4th or 5th option since he's been here, and it's hard to just switch roles so quickly, especially in this offense.

    ReplyDelete