Thursday, March 11, 2010

BET log5 predictions, after Round 2

Here's the updated log5 analysis of the BET tourney, using the updated KenPom.com ratings, after the 2nd round is in the books.

West Virginia is the big beneficiary of the action thus far, namely Cincinnati's upset of Louisville. Since the initial log5 prediction (the "Orig" column), their odds of a title have gone up nearly 3%, even more than the Hoyas', despite not playing.

Seed  Team     2nd Rnd   Quarters   Semis   Finals    Champ      Orig
9     USF        100       out       out      out      out        0.1
16    DePaul     out       out       out      out      out        0.0003
8     G'town      -        100      36.8     19.2      9.5        6.8
1     Cuse        -         -       63.2     41.2     25.6       28.9

12    UConn      out       out       out      out      out        0.8
13    St.J's     100       out       out      out      out        0.06
5     Marq        -        100      45.2     16.8      7.6        5.2
4     Nova        -         -       54.8     22.9     11.4       12.8

10    SHU        100       out       out      out      out        0.6
15    Provy      out       out       out      out      out        0.06
7     N.Dame      -        100      41.1     13.3      4.0        2.2
2     Pitt        -         -       58.9     23.5      9.0        9.8

11    Cinci      100       100      15.6      4.7      0.9        0.2
14    Rutgers    out       out       out      out      out        0.0009
6     L'ville     -        out       out      out      out        3.5
3     WVU         -         -       84.4     58.6     32.0       29.1
Editor's note: These are the percentage probabilities a team will make it to that round, based on KenPom ratings.
"100" means that team did advance to the round, a "-" means the team had a bye to that round.

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