As I wrote this morning, turnovers are a harbinger of doom for the Hoyas in the post-season. You know what an even better indicator that you're just not going to win the game? A sieve-like defense.
To me, the game most similar to tonight was the 14-point loss at home against Notre Dame:
- virtually no defense, especially in dealing with multiple ball-screens
- a second-half attempt to climb back that is easily answered by the opponent
- Austin Freeman not looking himself
Credit, of course, should be extended to the Ohio U. players for likely their biggest win in a generation.
The Bobcats were incredibly efficient while careful with the ball in the first half to maximize possessions, and moved from hot shooting to scorching in the second half to ride out the win. When a team shoots 59% on jumpers [= 22/37; 9/14 2FG, 13/23 3FG], you're gonna lose the game.
Dan Hanner sent along this recap, which he couldn't bring to publish himself.
On Bill Simmons' levels of losing scale Georgetown's loss to Ohio might qualify as a Level 5.
It wasn't a big game. It wasn't a colossal choke-job. But somehow, this one hurt a little bit more than the rare loss to Rutgers.
Part of the hurt was the end-of-season feeling you always get. It was the sudden realization that your last memory of Greg Monroe might be him with his head on his arms in disgust at his 3rd offensive foul and 7th turnover.
Part of the hurt was the flashback to the Davidson game and the realization that Armon Basset was playing like Stephen Curry.
Part of the hurt was the way the game was called. I almost never question the referees, but my thought early in the game was how often Ohio kept pushing Hoya players while setting screens. But the refs never called it until Greg Monroe did it on the other end in the second half. Puzzling. Then there was the replay of one of the Ohio players with a hidden tug on the jersey that wasn't called. Georgetown lost this game because of the pathetic defensive effort, not because of the calls, but it felt worse because it seemed like Ohio was shoving the Hoyas around with no consequences.
But the real hurt was simpler. This game hurt because I started to believe again. After the late-season roller coaster, I was just happy when Georgetown beat Cincinnati and South Florida. At that point, I could have accepted a first round exit. But then Georgetown beat Syracuse. Then they crushed a tired Marquette team. Then they played a deeper West Virginia team tough despite playing their fourth game in four nights in the Big East title game.
I knew the team was inconsistent. I knew they could lose to Tennessee or San Diego St. But I thought they had grown enough that they wouldn't lose to Ohio University. I was wrong. Georgetown played like they had never seen a ball-screen before. Georgetown continued to play terrible zone defense until late in the second half despite the fact that Ohio was shooting lights out. And just like that, the season is over.
For the last time this season, let's run the numbers:
TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE . Home Visitor . Georgetown Ohio Bobcats . 1st Half 2nd Half Total 1st Half 2nd Half Total Pace 33 39 73 Effic. 107.5 120.6 114.1 143.3 125.8 133.4 eFG% 51.7 62.5 57.4 64.7 78.6 70.0 TO% 20.9 28.2 24.7 11.9 20.5 16.5 OR% 38.9 50.0 43.8 43.8 11.1 32.0 FTA/FGA 31.0 31.2 31.1 17.6 95.2 47.3 Assist Rate 38.5 50.0 45.2 38.9 57.1 46.9 Block Rate 5.6 28.6 15.6 5.9 9.1 7.7 Steal Rate 6.0 7.7 6.9 6.0 10.3 8.2 2FG% 52.9 63.6 59.0 55.6 64.3 59.4 3FG% 33.3 40.0 36.4 50.0 71.4 56.5 FT% 66.7 70.0 68.4 66.7 80.0 76.9
The offense was fine tonight. It would have been nice to see some better production in the first half, but an OEff of 108 against any tournament team is respectable for a half, and the Hoyas were able to bump that up a notch in the second half, despite a high turnover rate in the Vesper half. In fact, given the venue and the competition, scoring 1.14 points per possession was almost exactly what we'd predict.
The problem tonight was simply the defense. Given both teams bodies of work this year, we expect that Ohio would average just a hair under a point per possession in a typical game against Georgetown at a neutral site. Tonight was certainly not typical.
What went wrong? Just about everything in the first half.
- The Bobcats were making shots inside and out - well, mostly out. Georgetown allowed Ohio to shoot 5/11 on dunks, tips and layups in the half, giving up lower percentage outside shots to easy inside ones. Unfortunately, the Bobcats made 5/7 2FG jumpers and 8/16 3FGs (they'd shoot even better from outside in the Vesper half).
- The Hoyas couldn't force turnovers in the half, as Ohio had a scoring attempt on 29 of 33 possessions, and accrued 48 points in those 29 possessions [1.66 pts. per scoring poss.]
- On those rare instances when the Bobcats did miss a shot, they were able to grab a substantial number of their own misses: Ohio got 7 of 16 own misses in the half, and converted those rebounds into 16 points. This by a team that is currently ranked 221st in off. rebounding.
The stellar shooting by Ohio from 3FG was a big driver in the blowout, but actually is nothing new for them. The Bobcats have had several games this year with similar shooting: 8/17 vs. Akron to win the MAC, 10/22 at Kent St., 14/32 against W. Michigan, 11/22 against Buffalo. But those aren't Big East caliber teams (well, maybe Kent. St.).
In the end, it looks like the Hoyas left everything on the floor of MSG last Saturday night, because tonight was, by my measure, their worst lost of the season.
And so it goes.
INDIVIDUAL NET POINTS STATS Georgetown Off % Pts Def Pts Player Poss Poss O.Rtg Prod Poss D.Rtg Allow Net Pts VAUGHN, Julian 18 16.7 66.7 2.0 18 103.8 3.7 -1.4 MONROE, Greg 69 28.7 119.2 23.6 68 127.9 17.4 +2.3 WRIGHT, Chris 73 27.4 118.2 23.7 72 137.4 19.8 +0.0 FREEMAN, Austin 61 20.7 64.7 8.2 58 128.0 14.8 -7.3 CLARK, Jason 71 9.3 124.3 8.2 69 122.0 16.8 -4.3 THOMPSON, Hollis 39 12.5 213.1 10.4 37 144.5 10.7 +1.5 SANFORD, Vee 9 27.8 40.0 1.0 10 131.2 2.6 -2.0 BENIMON, Jerrelle 25 15.7 100.6 4.0 28 142.5 8.0 -2.8 TOTALS 73 110.4 81.0 72 130.4 93.9 -13.6 Ohio Bobcats Off % Pts Def Pts Player Poss Poss O.Rtg Prod Poss D.Rtg Allow Net Pts WASHINGTON, De 69 22.3 116.1 17.9 68 107.2 14.6 +2.3 Freeman, Tommy 49 7.5 125.4 4.6 47 112.1 10.5 -2.7 van Kempen, Kenneth 53 13.2 105.3 7.3 53 100.4 10.6 -1.5 Bassett, Armon 72 30.2 133.0 28.9 73 112.5 16.4 +8.4 Cooper, D.J 68 23.3 168.6 26.7 68 100.8 13.7 +11.9 Baltic, Ivo 5 0.0 - 0.0 5 122.4 1.2 -1.2 Adedipe, Adetunji 0 - - 0.0 1 200.0 0.4 -0.4 Keely, Reggie 17 12.7 200.0 4.3 19 109.8 4.2 +1.0 Sayles, Asown 27 13.6 91.2 3.4 31 108.2 6.7 -2.0 TOTALS 72 134.0 93.1 73 107.4 78.4 +17.1
I'm not going to spend too much time pointing fingers about the defense, as the Net Points table does a good job all by itself. Julian Vaughn was the only Hoya credited with even average defense played, but his offensive struggles meant that he couldn't stay on the floor once Georgetown fell well behind.
That Greg Monroe could post a 120 ORating on 29% possessions used while committing 7 turnovers is testament to the fact that he really had no one who could stop him, other than himself.
Jason Clark was unable or unwilling to play a bigger role in the offense despite an efficient game.
I'm starting to think that the diabetes is playing a bigger role for Austin Freeman than he or the team is letting on - Freeman was uncharacteristically quiet throughout the Big East tournament until the end of the West Virginia game, where he was able to deliver an impressive offensive burst for the last 12 minutes of that game. Otherwise, he had been willing to defer throughout the BET while struggling to hit outside shots, and tonight when the team desperately needed his heroics, he just didn't have anything to give.
The bench, mostly Hollis Thompson, were able to give some offensive help while some of the starters scuffled, but they just couldn't guard a chair out there tonight.
Finally, lost in this debacle is the great play by Chris Wright over the past few weeks. I said at the start of the season that his improved play would be critical to any post-season success for the Hoyas. He pushed Georgetown to the Big East championship game, but didn't get much help tonight to win the opening NCAA tourney game.
HD BOX SCORE
Ohio Bobcats vs Georgetown
3/18/10 7:25pm at Providence, R.I. - Dunkin' Donuts Center
Final score: Ohio Bobcats 97, Georgetown 83
Ohio Bobcats Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF
WASHINGTON, De 37:37 +14 12/93 4- 9 0- 0 4- 8 9/53 2/26 1/68 2/69 0/35 5/26 5/30 2
Freeman, Tommy 27:16 + 7 11/62 1- 1 3- 4 0- 0 5/35 0/18 0/47 1/49 0/25 0/14 3/24 5
van Kempen, Kenneth 27:49 + 9 9/67 4- 5 0- 0 1- 2 5/35 2/17 2/53 2/53 1/27 0/16 2/23 4
Bassett, Armon 40:00 +14 32/97 4- 7 5-10 9-10 17/55 3/23 0/73 4/72 0/39 0/26 3/34 0
Cooper, D.J 37:13 +15 23/92 3- 4 5- 8 2- 2 12/51 8/22 3/68 3/68 0/34 2/24 1/27 3
Baltic, Ivo 03:20 + 1 0/ 7 0- 1 0- 0 0- 0 1/ 6 0/ 3 0/ 5 0/ 5 0/ 5 0/ 3 0/ 7 0
Adedipe, Adetunji 00:15 - 2 0/ 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 1 0/ 0 0/ 3 0/ 0 0/ 3 0
Keely, Reggie 10:59 + 6 6/27 3- 4 0- 0 0- 0 4/16 0/ 7 0/19 0/17 1/ 8 0/ 7 1/ 5 3
Sayles, Asown 15:31 + 6 4/40 0- 1 0- 1 4- 4 2/24 0/12 0/31 0/27 1/19 0/14 2/17 1
TOTALS 40:00 97 19-32 13-23 20-26 55 15/32 6/73 13/72 3/39 8/25 18/32 18
. 0.594 0.565 0.769 0.469 0.082 0.181 0.077 0.320 0.562
Georgetown Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF
VAUGHN, Julian 10:12 - 9 2/11 1- 1 0- 1 0- 0 2/10 0/ 3 0/18 1/18 0/10 0/ 6 2/ 7 2
MONROE, Greg 37:23 -12 19/80 7-11 0- 0 5- 7 11/57 6/23 1/68 7/69 2/30 6/31 7/24 5
WRIGHT, Chris 40:00 -14 28/83 6- 9 3- 9 7-10 18/61 3/22 0/72 4/73 0/32 0/34 1/26 0
FREEMAN, Austin 31:52 - 5 9/68 3- 7 1- 4 0- 0 11/50 2/21 0/58 3/61 0/23 0/28 2/19 2
CLARK, Jason 38:30 -11 7/81 2- 3 1- 3 0- 0 6/60 3/27 3/69 2/71 0/31 2/34 4/26 4
THOMPSON, Hollis 21:04 + 3 16/57 3- 3 3- 5 1- 1 8/37 0/15 0/37 0/39 2/16 1/19 0/14 5
SANFORD, Vee 04:37 - 7 0/ 6 0- 2 0- 0 0- 0 2/ 8 0/ 2 0/10 1/ 9 0/ 5 2/ 6 0/ 4 1
BENIMON, Jerrelle 16:22 -15 2/29 1- 3 0- 0 0- 1 3/22 0/11 1/28 1/25 1/13 3/12 1/10 2
TOTALS 40:00 83 23-39 8-22 13-19 61 14/31 5/72 19/73 5/32 14/32 17/25 21
. 0.590 0.364 0.684 0.452 0.069 0.260 0.156 0.438 0.680
Efficiency: Ohio Bobcats 1.347, Georgetown 1.137
eFG%: Ohio Bobcats 0.700, Georgetown 0.574
Substitutions: Ohio Bobcats 16, Georgetown 32
2-pt Shot Selection:
Dunks: Ohio Bobcats 2-3, Georgetown 2-2
Layups/Tips: Ohio Bobcats 8-15, Georgetown 17-28
Jumpers: Ohio Bobcats 9-14, Georgetown 4-9
Fast break pts (% FG pts): Ohio Bobcats 4 (5.2), Georgetown 8 (11.4)
Pts (eff.) after steal: Ohio Bobcats 6 (100.0), Georgetown 6 (120.0)
Seconds per poss: Ohio Bobcats 18.4, Georgetown 14.4
All stats pages will be updated by the end of the weekend.
I'm surprised no one is mentioning coaching (or lack thereof) as having been questionable not only last night, but over the last three seasons.The coaches have a big role in getting their team ready to play. They obviously got an "F" last night on that score, and the same for multiple games against lesser opponents this year. And let's not forget the second half of last year, nor the Hoyas early exit against Davidson two years ago, nor the fact that the Hoyas had the thinnest bench among all major teams this year. Yes JT III, that DOES matter, so how about bringing in more ready to play talent?
ReplyDeletePerhaps most distressing last night was there was no sign of any adjustments on the part of the coaches throughout the game.
Sure, the Hoyas gave us some great moments this year, and I'll never forget the experience of seeing them blow away Duke at Verizon. But when you flunk the "final" exam in what arguably was the worst post season loss in Hoya history (and I include the dreaded loss to Villanova in '85--at least we showed some effort there), I sure hope there's a lot of soul searching going on.
You're surprised that no one is mentioning coaching on a blog focused on tempo-free statistics and the empirical analysis of on-the-court performance?
ReplyDeleteI guess the coaching didn't matter in the 7 wins over top-25 RPI opponents this year, the most of any D-I program.
This isn't HoyaTalk. Go troll and soul search over there.
Actually, I don't really have a problem with the questioning of the coaching.
ReplyDeleteWe do criticize players here - albeit not with the élan of HoyaTalk or CasualHoya.com - so I don't see why the coaches can't take some heat as well. After all, they're getting paid, unlike the players.
I'm just not sure how we separate the coaching from the players' performance statistically. Maybe the lack of consistency? Within season improvement? I know Dan Hanner over at Yet Another Basketball Blog has done some coach rankings, he may have some ideas (and he's a Hoya fan as well). It could make a nice off-season project to think about.
Of course, if you're not interested in a quantitative approach, you've probably wandered onto the wrong blog.
Cheers!
could we at least be accurate when agenda-trolling, then?:
ReplyDelete-OSU has a shorter and even worse bench.
-claiming the davidson game is comparable is kinda bizarre, as davidson rallied furiously after a georgetown team dominated the first half and start of the second. ohio beat us from the opening tip (oh, and the bench gave 40+ minutes, btw).
I'm going to be honest, I view coaches and players as so intertwined I find it hard to separately them on a game or seasonal basis.
ReplyDeleteThe idea that it is the coach's sole responsibility to inspire effort is silly, just as saying the players have sole responsibility in getting ready for the game.
I'm all for listening to a way to evaluate the split between coaches and players but I don't know how you get there.
Dan Hanner and others do some interesting stuff -- but it's more about coaches who outperform certain ratings systems. There's value there, and it's better than anything I can think of, but it isn't definitive.
Does JTIII get all the credit for developing Roy Hibbert from a non-Top 100 player to lottery pick? Should he get all the blame for three McD's not getting past the first round?
One thing I do know: JTIII can succeed because he has. Maybe these past two seasons are more to blame on the players. Maybe Jeff, Roy, Jon and Pat were just so good it made JTIII look better. Maybe III is a great coach for Jeff and Roy but doesn't fit well with Greg. It's tough to tell.
But you can't posit he can't win.