Friday, March 12, 2010

BET log5 predictions, after quarterfinals

Here's the updated log5 analysis of the BET tourney, using the updated KenPom.com ratings, now that the quarterfinals are in the books.

With three of the four double bye teams losing, lots of change in the odds since yesterday. The biggest jump since the initial log5 prediction (the "Orig" column) unsurprisingly belongs to the Hoyas, who pulled off the biggest upset by knocking off the conference's best team and also saw the second best team on their half of the bracket eliminated.  West Virginia becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the 'chip.

Seed  Team     2nd Rnd   Quarters   Semis   Finals    Champ      Orig
9     USF        100       out       out      out      out        0.1
16    DePaul     out       out       out      out      out        0.0003
8     G'town      -        100       100     55.5     27.8        6.8
1     Cuse        -         -        out      out      out       28.9

12    UConn      out       out       out      out      out        0.8
13    St.J's     100       out       out      out      out        0.06
5     Marq        -        100       100     44.5     19.9        5.2
4     Nova        -         -        out      out      out       12.8

10    SHU        100       out       out      out      out        0.6
15    Provy      out       out       out      out      out        0.06
7     N.Dame      -        100       100     28.4     10.3        2.2
2     Pitt        -         -        out      out      out        9.8

11    Cinci      100       100       out      out      out        0.2
14    Rutgers    out       out       out      out      out        0.0009
6     L'ville     -        out       out      out      out        3.5
3     WVU         -         -        100     71.6     42.0       29.1
Editor's note: These are the percentage probabilities a team will make it to that round, based on KenPom ratings.
"100" means that team did advance to the round, a "-" means the team had a bye to that round.

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