Bracket Prediction

Here's the log5 analysis of the Midwest Bracket, using the updated KenPom ratings:

         Opening Round Sweet 16  Elite 8  Final 4
Kansas         98.55%   93.61%   82.05%   61.52%
Portland State  1.45%    0.32%    0.04%    0.00%
UNLV           56.62%    3.76%    1.26%    0.21%
Kent State     43.38%    2.32%    0.66%    0.11%
  
Clemson        77.09%   60.96%   12.60%    4.93%
Villanova      22.91%   12.40%    1.09%    0.47%
Vanderbilt     77.03%   23.78%    2.21%    0.40%
Siena          22.97%    2.86%    0.10%    0.01%
  
USC            43.59%   11.23%    4.64%    0.99%
Kansas State   56.41%   17.24%    8.17%    1.88%
Wisconsin      96.04%   71.11%   48.94%   19.62%
CSU-Fullerton   3.96%    0.42%    0.04%    0.00%
  
Gonzaga        55.84%   17.38%    4.41%    0.72%
Davidson       44.16%   11.77%    2.52%    0.35%
Georgetown     96.35%   70.51%   31.26%    9.25%
UMBC            3.65%    0.34%    0.07%    0.00%

Make of these what you will. Naturally, efficiency ratings are not destiny. If they were, Georgetown wouldn't have been to the Final Four last year. Kansas, though, is #1 overall by a much bigger margin than UNC was last year.
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UPDATE (3/19/08 0117 CT): A brief lesson on the importance of extra numbers. The link above goes to KenPom's stats page, which has team ratings to three decimal points. The ratings page has an extra significant digit. The most prominent impact on the bracket is on Kansas, which is .9915, rounded up to .992. Using the extra significant digit decreases their Final 4 chances from 63.26% to 61.52%. The Hoyas, at .9704, increase from 8.89% to 9.25%. Wisconsin picks up most of the rest of the differential with the Jayhawks, increasing from 18.53% to 19.62%. Their chance of winning v UMBC also increases from 96.30% to 96.35%. Alas, the chance of making the Elite 8 actually falls, from 31.36% to 31.26%, because Wisconsin's rating also increases, from .982 to .9825.