Thursday, March 8, 2012

Recap: Cincinnati 72, Georgetown 70 [2OT]

Image from here
The Georgetown Hoyas saw their stay at the Big East tournament come to a premature end courtesy of a gutty come-from-behind win by the Cincinnati Bearcats, 72-70.

The game went two overtimes today, thanks to last second heroics in regulation by Otto Porter and in the first overtime by Henry Sims, but the worm tuned in the second extra session when Cashmere Wright made a tough layup that proved to be the difference.

Some quick thoughts as I watch a replay of the game:

The Hoyas drew 23 fouls on 57 possessions yesterday against Pittsburgh, but only 14 on 72 possessions today (and of those 14 total fouls by the Bearcats, four came in a single possession). Now this isn't a criticism of the refs for today's game, but rather an observation about how the two games were called. Yesterday was called tight, which we generally think benefits Georgetown's motion offense. Tonight was called loose, especially with respect to the more aggressive Cincinnati defense. The Hoyas couldn't adjust - and missed half their FTs after intermission when they did get to the line. [N.B. - Cinci was 2nd lowest in FT/FG allowed in conference, while Pitt was 11th].

Did Nate Lubick not get a fair shake today? The argument goes that he had one of his best games of the year in the first meeting with the Bearcats, but Nate never got on the floor in the Vespers' half. It's hard to say, but I didn't see anything in his 7 possessions played to indicate he was over-matched today.

Still watching the replay: with less than nine minutes left in regulation, an eleven-point lead and the ball, the game very much feels to be the Hoyas to win. I think I felt the same way the last time the teams played.

Jason Clark was rated as an overall positive today, rating +1.5 net points by the compiler, while Hollis Thompson was nearly -3. Thompson and Starks are capable of much better things, and as I noted yesterday, the Hoyas aren't going to win many games when those two aren't winning their matchups.

Does Mick Cronin have John Thompson III's number? Cronin has been coaching the Bearcats since 2008:
Season  GU-UC  Favored?
2008     1-0   GU favored
2009     0-2   GU favored in both
2010     1-0   GU favored
2011     0-2   each favored in one
2012     0-2   GU favored in both
Total    2-6
Yikes! The Hoyas were favored (per KenPom) in seven of their last eight games against Cincinnati, but have only come away with two wins (that's five upsets for the Bearcats, for you SFS'ers).


Let's run the numbers:

TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Visitor                         Home      
.            Georgetown                      Cincinnati         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            25        32        59

Points          30        40        70          24        48        72   

Effic.        118.3      83.0      94.8        94.6      99.6      97.5  
 
eFG%           48.2      51.5      50.0        40.4      40.2      40.3  
TO%             7.9      24.9      19.0        19.7      10.4      13.5  
OR%            46.7      23.8      33.3        41.2      30.3      34.0  
FTA/FGA        17.9      29.4      24.2        15.4      37.0      29.2  
 
Assist Rate    38.5      47.1      43.3        40.0      44.4      42.9  
Block Rate     12.5      17.1      15.7         9.1       0.0       3.8  
Steal Rate     11.8       2.1       5.4         7.9      20.7      16.3  
 
2FG%           54.5      53.3      53.8        56.2      48.6      51.0  
3FG%           16.7      25.0      20.0        10.0       9.1       9.5  
FT%            60.0      50.0      53.3        75.0      64.7      66.7

more stats after the jump
INDIVIDUAL NET POINTS STATS

Georgetown            Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
Thompson, Hollis       67   22.0   78.0   11.5      69   101.1   13.9      -2.9  
Lubick, Nate            7   14.3    0.0    0.0       8    36.1    0.6      -0.5  
Sims, Henry            67   30.1  111.3   22.4      70    92.3   12.9      +6.7  
Clark, Jason           69   13.0  133.6   12.0      71    90.2   12.8      +1.5  
Porter, Otto           68   22.1  107.2   16.1      69    89.6   12.4      +3.2  
Whittington, Greg      33   12.8   57.4    2.4      37   115.0    8.5      -4.3  
Hopkins, Mikael         3   37.0   20.0    0.2       3   130.0    0.8      -0.9  
Starks, Markel         43   18.7  111.7    9.0      40    80.4    6.4      +2.5  
Trawick, Jabril         3   33.3  100.0    1.0       3    93.3    0.6      +0.3  
TOTALS                 72         100.5   74.6      74    93.1   68.9      +5.6  

Cincinnati            Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
KILPATRICK, Sean       58   19.6   90.4   10.3      53   101.0   10.7      -0.8  
PARKER, JaQuon         69   13.1  120.0   10.9      66    90.2   11.9      +0.8  
GATES, Yancy           69   23.1  131.4   20.9      67    84.4   11.3      +8.5  
WRIGHT, Cashmere       62   15.2  115.2   10.9      60    77.6    9.3      +2.5  
DIXON, Dion            73   24.9   76.4   13.9      70    88.9   12.5      -0.4  
JACKSON, Justin        28   28.0   78.6    6.2      32   118.4    7.6      -2.3  
MBODJ, Cheikh           5    0.0    -      0.0       5   106.7    1.1      -1.1  
GUYN, Ge'Lawn           6   50.0    0.0    0.0       7    61.9    0.9      -1.4  
TOTALS                 74          97.6   72.9      72    90.5   65.2      +6.4


HD BOX SCORE

Georgetown vs Cincinnati
3/8/12 2pm at Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Final score: Cincinnati 72, Georgetown 70

Georgetown              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
Thompson, Hollis       46:15  + 0  10/67  3- 9  1- 4  1- 2 13/61  1/26  0/69  3/67  2/46  3/34  5/45   1
Lubick, Nate           05:34  + 0   0/ 4  0- 0  0- 1  0- 0  1/ 4  0/ 1  0/ 8  0/ 7  0/ 4  0/ 3  2/ 5   1
Sims, Henry            46:05  - 2  22/67 11-19  0- 1  0- 2 20/57  3/18  0/70  4/67  2/49  3/32 12/47   2
Clark, Jason           47:37  - 3  12/67  4- 7  0- 1  4- 4  8/60  2/25  1/71  1/69  0/50  1/35  3/48   3
Porter, Otto           46:46  - 4  14/66  6-10  0- 1  2- 3 11/59  4/22  2/69  4/68  2/49  3/35  4/47   4
Whittington, Greg      23:24  -10   2/29  1- 1  0- 1  0- 0  2/27  0/10  0/37  2/33  2/29  1/18  0/24   2
Hopkins, Mikael        02:42  - 1   0/ 2  0- 1  0- 0  0- 0  1/ 4  1/ 1  0/ 3  0/ 3  0/ 1  0/ 3  0/ 2   1
Starks, Markel         29:14  + 9   9/45  3- 5  1- 1  0- 2  6/36  2/16  1/40  0/43  0/26  0/19  3/30   1
Trawick, Jabril        02:23  + 1   1/ 3  0- 0  0- 0  1- 2  0/ 2  0/ 1  0/ 3  0/ 3  0/ 1  0/ 1  0/ 2   0
TOTALS                 50:00       70    28-52  2-10  8-15    62 13/30  4/74 14/72  8/51 12/36 33/50  15
.                                        0.538 0.200 0.533       0.433 0.054 0.194 0.157 0.333 0.660    

Cincinnati              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
KILPATRICK, Sean       39:26  + 6  12/63  3- 4  1- 6  3- 3 10/59  0/21  2/53  2/58  1/41  1/39  3/28   4
PARKER, JaQuon         45:42  + 9   9/68  3- 6  1- 4  0- 0 10/66  3/22  0/66  1/69  0/43  3/46  7/32   3
GATES, Yancy           45:55  + 2  23/67 10-18  0- 1  3- 4 19/66  1/17  3/67  0/69  0/51  3/45  5/35   3
WRIGHT, Cashmere       40:09  + 6  10/62  5- 8  0- 3  0- 1 11/59  4/21  5/60  1/62  0/44  1/38  2/31   1
DIXON, Dion            48:23  + 4  13/72  4-11  0- 6  5- 9 17/71  2/24  2/70  0/73  0/49  3/49  5/34   2
JACKSON, Justin        21:01  -14   5/21  1- 3  0- 0  3- 4  3/28  2/ 6  0/32  3/28  1/26  3/23  0/14   1
MBODJ, Cheikh          04:05  + 0   0/ 5  0- 1  0- 0  0- 0  1/ 6  0/ 1  0/ 5  0/ 5  0/ 1  0/ 5  0/ 1   0
GUYN, Ge'Lawn          05:19  - 3   0/ 2  0- 0  0- 1  0- 0  1/ 5  0/ 0  0/ 7  2/ 6  0/ 5  0/ 5  2/ 5   0
TOTALS                 50:00       72    26-51  2-21 14-21    72 12/28 12/72 10/74  2/52 17/50 24/36  14
.                                        0.510 0.095 0.667       0.429 0.167 0.135 0.038 0.340 0.667    

Efficiency: Cincinnati 0.973, Georgetown 0.972
eFG%: Cincinnati 0.403, Georgetown 0.500
Substitutions: Cincinnati 28, Georgetown 24

2-pt Shot Selection:
Dunks: Cincinnati 3-3, Georgetown 1-1
Layups/Tips: Cincinnati 18-36, Georgetown 14-26
Jumpers: Cincinnati 5-12, Georgetown 13-25

Fast break pts (% FG pts): Cincinnati 16 (27.6), Georgetown 4 (6.5)
Pts (eff.) after steal: Cincinnati 15 (125.0), Georgetown 7 (175.0)
Seconds per poss: Cincinnati 20.4, Georgetown 20.6

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