Saturday, March 17, 2012

St Louis bracket: log5 prediction after Round of 32

Now that the Hoyas have advanced to the Round of 32, it's time to update the original log5 predictions for the region.

Ken Pomeroy has updated the official log5 odds for the Round of 32 on his website. As I did for my original log5 prediction, I'm going off results against the KenPom Top 100 (not including the Round of 64 results).

Here are the percentage odds for advancing to the next round for each team:
Seed  Team           2nd Rd  Sweet 16  Elite 8  Final 4   Orig
1     North Carolina   100      61.6     50.6     30.8    25.7
16    Lamar/Vermont    out       out      out      out     0.2
8     Creighton        100      38.4     28.5     14.2     8.4
9     Alabama          out       out      out      out     3.0

5     Temple           out       out      out      out     5.6
12    South Florida    100      53.9     11.9      3.3     1.0
4     Michigan         out       out      out      out     5.8
13    Ohio             100      46.1      9.0      2.3     0.6

6     San Diego St.    out       out      out      out     4.6
11    NC State         100      22.6      5.6      1.6     0.8
3     Georgetown       100      77.4     31.4     13.7     7.3
14    Belmont          out       out      out      out     1.6

7     Saint Mary's     out       out      out      out     7.1
10    Purdue           100      25.7     11.4      4.0     1.9
2     Kansas           100      74.3     51.5     30.2    25.3
15    Detroit          out       out      out      out     0.1

Note I've listed a couple teams in bold in the brackets. The Hoyas were bolded to highlight their odds. As I noted in the prior post, Ohio has played few games against the KenPom Top 100 (only seven including the game against Michigan). Because of their small sample size, I'm using a nominal rating more along the lines of what a good #13 seed might have. I've also added team's original odds of reaching the Final Four. Note, however, these aren't the same as the odds listed in prior post. Those were based on a superior (by this methodology) Cal team winning the play-in game; since USF won, I replaced them with Cal in the odds calculator, which improved everybody else's odds.

By virtue of San Diego State's loss, the Hoyas see the biggest rise in the region in their chances of making the Final Four. NC State was in some respects the ACC's UConn or Texas, a squad cursed with potential that often failed to play up to their talent level. Using the full Pomeroy ratings (pre-tourney), the Hoyas are still 72% favorites, but aren't favored by as much as UNC or Kansas. That feels more accurate to me, but we shall see.

Notes: log5 predictions are made using Pomeroy ratings based on games through Sunday, March 11.
No adjustment has been made for any home court advantage - all games are assumed neutral court.

Finally, a gentle reminder: efficiency ratings and the predictions derived therefrom are not destiny.

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