Monday, March 29, 2010

2009-10 Season Post-Mortem: The Basics

For the third straight year, the ending sucked.

I'm not sure this really means anything; last year the definition of "ending" was a lot longer than this year or 2007-08, where the "ending" was pretty much 2-3 games.

It's a good thing for me that I'm not a fan of defining success by the results of a single-elimination tournament. It's fun for excitement, but it isn't a good method of evaluation, whether it be the highs of a BE tournament Georgetown could/should have won or the lows of getting blown out by the Hoyas' poor play and the hot shooting of Ohio.

Like last year, this will likely be a meandering series of posts hitting some of the key spots of the year. I'll start at the top and see where it leads me...

Final* Kenpom Stats

Overall Rank:  13th

Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank:   9th
Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank:  47th

*There's a few games to play, so these may change slightly but not materially


How good were the Hoyas this year?

Most of the data says somewhere between the 12th-20th best team in the country.

After a year in which the team didn't make the tournament, Pomeroy puts Georgetown at 13th, the NCAA Selection Committee in the 9-12 range, Sagarin at 18th, RPI rank is 12th and the polls would likely have the Hoyas in the 15-20 range.

I don't think there's a particularly strong argument that focuses on body of work that puts the Hoyas outside the Top 25.

Are people unhappy with this? I'm definitely unhappy about the way the season ended, but this is a consistently Top 20 program at this point.

Season      Pomeroy     Sagarin     AP     RPI    NCAA seed
2003-04       110         113        -     133        -
                        ----Thompson hired----
2004-05        42          54        -      70       NIT 
2005-06        14          10       23      36        7
2006-07         5           6        8       9        2
2007-08         7          10        8       8        2
2008-09        27          45        -      57       NIT
2009-10        13          18       14      12        3

Based on body of work, who can complain about this?

I bring this up only because it sets the tone for this post-mortem. It was a frustrating season because of the inconsistency, and because of the perceived brilliance of many of our players.

But it wasn't a bad season.


Offense and Defense

My big pet peeve, as I'm sure our regular reader knows, is the attribution of wins and losses to only one side of the ball. The offense tends to get credit or blame, regardless of the actual reality of the game.

So, just to set the record straight for the season: the offense got very, very good by the end of the season, and the defense fell apart, relatively.

I've posted this before, but early in the season, the big wins were defensive-driven: Temple, Butler, Washington, UConn. The loss to Old Dominion was mostly the fault of a sub-par offense.

But that shifted as the year went on, and after the Connecticut game, the worst Offensive Efficiency the Hoyas had in a win was a 112 (South Florida and Providence) while all of Georgetown's big wins were driven by offense: 120 at Pitt; 121 vs. Duke; 120 vs. Villanova; 114 at Louisville; 123 versus Cuse; 126 versus Marquette.

The losses were not as sparkling, but the team still posted good offensive efforts at Rutgers, vs. Notre Dame, versus WVU in the BE title game and versus Ohio in the NCAA.

This team was simply a better offensive team. Post-Connecticut, the team didn't win any grind-it-out games. It could play good defense for part of a game, but there's no win in the second half of the season won on the defensive side of the ball.

As the off-season progresses, I'm going to dive into the offense, the defense and individual players.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Recap: Ohio U. 97, Georgetown 83

Looks like my weekend just opened up.

As I wrote this morning, turnovers are a harbinger of doom for the Hoyas in the post-season. You know what an even better indicator that you're just not going to win the game?  A sieve-like defense.

To me, the game most similar to tonight was the 14-point loss at home against Notre Dame:
  • virtually no defense, especially in dealing with multiple ball-screens
  • a second-half attempt to climb back that is easily answered by the opponent
  • Austin Freeman not looking himself

Credit, of course, should be extended to the Ohio U. players for likely their biggest win in a generation.

The Bobcats were incredibly efficient while careful with the ball in the first half to maximize possessions, and moved from hot shooting to scorching in the second half to ride out the win.  When a team shoots 59% on jumpers [= 22/37; 9/14 2FG, 13/23 3FG], you're gonna lose the game.


Dan Hanner sent along this recap, which he couldn't bring to publish himself.
On Bill Simmons' levels of losing scale Georgetown's loss to Ohio might qualify as a Level 5.

It wasn't a big game. It wasn't a colossal choke-job. But somehow, this one hurt a little bit more than the rare loss to Rutgers.

Part of the hurt was the end-of-season feeling you always get. It was the sudden realization that your last memory of Greg Monroe might be him with his head on his arms in disgust at his 3rd offensive foul and 7th turnover.

Part of the hurt was the flashback to the Davidson game and the realization that Armon Basset was playing like Stephen Curry.

Part of the hurt was the way the game was called. I almost never question the referees, but my thought early in the game was how often Ohio kept pushing Hoya players while setting screens. But the refs never called it until Greg Monroe did it on the other end in the second half. Puzzling. Then there was the replay of one of the Ohio players with a hidden tug on the jersey that wasn't called. Georgetown lost this game because of the pathetic defensive effort, not because of the calls, but it felt worse because it seemed like Ohio was shoving the Hoyas around with no consequences.

But the real hurt was simpler. This game hurt because I started to believe again. After the late-season roller coaster, I was just happy when Georgetown beat Cincinnati and South Florida. At that point, I could have accepted a first round exit. But then Georgetown beat Syracuse. Then they crushed a tired Marquette team. Then they played a deeper West Virginia team tough despite playing their fourth game in four nights in the Big East title game.

I knew the team was inconsistent. I knew they could lose to Tennessee or San Diego St. But I thought they had grown enough that they wouldn't lose to Ohio University. I was wrong. Georgetown played like they had never seen a ball-screen before. Georgetown continued to play terrible zone defense until late in the second half despite the fact that Ohio was shooting lights out. And just like that, the season is over.


For the last time this season, let's run the numbers:


TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Home                            Visitor   
.            Georgetown                      Ohio Bobcats         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            33        39        73
 
Effic.        107.5     120.6     114.1       143.3     125.8     133.4  
 
eFG%           51.7      62.5      57.4        64.7      78.6      70.0  
TO%            20.9      28.2      24.7        11.9      20.5      16.5  
OR%            38.9      50.0      43.8        43.8      11.1      32.0  
FTA/FGA        31.0      31.2      31.1        17.6      95.2      47.3  

Assist Rate    38.5      50.0      45.2        38.9      57.1      46.9  
Block Rate      5.6      28.6      15.6         5.9       9.1       7.7  
Steal Rate      6.0       7.7       6.9         6.0      10.3       8.2  
 
2FG%           52.9      63.6      59.0        55.6      64.3      59.4  
3FG%           33.3      40.0      36.4        50.0      71.4      56.5  
FT%            66.7      70.0      68.4        66.7      80.0      76.9

The offense was fine tonight.  It would have been nice to see some better production in the first half, but an OEff of 108 against any tournament team is respectable for a half, and the Hoyas were able to bump that up a notch in the second half, despite a high turnover rate in the Vesper half.  In fact, given the venue and the competition, scoring 1.14 points per possession was almost exactly what we'd predict.

The problem tonight was simply the defense.  Given both teams bodies of work this year, we expect that Ohio would average just a hair under a point per possession in a typical game against Georgetown at a neutral site.  Tonight was certainly not typical.

What went wrong?  Just about everything in the first half.
  • The Bobcats were making shots inside and out - well, mostly out.  Georgetown allowed Ohio to shoot 5/11 on dunks, tips and layups in the half, giving up lower percentage outside shots to easy inside ones.  Unfortunately, the Bobcats made 5/7 2FG jumpers and 8/16 3FGs (they'd shoot even better from outside in the Vesper half).
  • The Hoyas couldn't force turnovers in the half, as Ohio had a scoring attempt on 29 of 33 possessions, and accrued 48 points in those 29 possessions [1.66 pts. per scoring poss.]
  • On those rare instances when the Bobcats did miss a shot, they were able to grab a substantial number of their own misses:  Ohio got 7 of 16 own misses in the half, and converted those rebounds into 16 points.  This by a team that is currently ranked 221st in off. rebounding.
For reasons only the Georgetown coaches and players may know, the Hoyas simply couldn't be bothered to give defensive effort tonight until the hole they dug was far too deep to climb out.


The stellar shooting by Ohio from 3FG was a big driver in the blowout, but actually is nothing new for them.  The Bobcats have had several games this year with similar shooting: 8/17 vs. Akron to win the MAC, 10/22 at Kent St., 14/32 against W. Michigan, 11/22 against Buffalo.  But those aren't Big East caliber teams (well, maybe Kent. St.).

In the end, it looks like the Hoyas left everything on the floor of MSG last Saturday night, because tonight was, by my measure, their worst lost of the season.

And so it goes.


INDIVIDUAL NET POINTS STATS

Georgetown            Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
VAUGHN, Julian         18   16.7   66.7    2.0      18   103.8    3.7      -1.4  
MONROE, Greg           69   28.7  119.2   23.6      68   127.9   17.4      +2.3  
WRIGHT, Chris          73   27.4  118.2   23.7      72   137.4   19.8      +0.0  
FREEMAN, Austin        61   20.7   64.7    8.2      58   128.0   14.8      -7.3  
CLARK, Jason           71    9.3  124.3    8.2      69   122.0   16.8      -4.3  
THOMPSON, Hollis       39   12.5  213.1   10.4      37   144.5   10.7      +1.5  
SANFORD, Vee            9   27.8   40.0    1.0      10   131.2    2.6      -2.0  
BENIMON, Jerrelle      25   15.7  100.6    4.0      28   142.5    8.0      -2.8  
TOTALS                 73         110.4   81.0      72   130.4   93.9     -13.6  

Ohio Bobcats          Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
WASHINGTON, De         69   22.3  116.1   17.9      68   107.2   14.6      +2.3  
Freeman, Tommy         49    7.5  125.4    4.6      47   112.1   10.5      -2.7  
van Kempen, Kenneth    53   13.2  105.3    7.3      53   100.4   10.6      -1.5  
Bassett, Armon         72   30.2  133.0   28.9      73   112.5   16.4      +8.4  
Cooper, D.J            68   23.3  168.6   26.7      68   100.8   13.7     +11.9  
Baltic, Ivo             5    0.0    -      0.0       5   122.4    1.2      -1.2  
Adedipe, Adetunji       0     -     -      0.0       1   200.0    0.4      -0.4  
Keely, Reggie          17   12.7  200.0    4.3      19   109.8    4.2      +1.0  
Sayles, Asown          27   13.6   91.2    3.4      31   108.2    6.7      -2.0  
TOTALS                 72         134.0   93.1      73   107.4   78.4     +17.1

I'm not going to spend too much time pointing fingers about the defense, as the Net Points table does a good job all by itself.  Julian Vaughn was the only Hoya credited with even average defense played, but his offensive struggles meant that he couldn't stay on the floor once Georgetown fell well behind.

That Greg Monroe could post a 120 ORating on 29% possessions used while committing 7 turnovers is testament to the fact that he really had no one who could stop him, other than himself.

Jason Clark was unable or unwilling to play a bigger role in the offense despite an efficient game.

I'm starting to think that the diabetes is playing a bigger role for Austin Freeman than he or the team is letting on - Freeman was uncharacteristically quiet throughout the Big East tournament until the end of the West Virginia game, where he was able to deliver an impressive offensive burst for the last 12 minutes of that game.  Otherwise, he had been willing to defer throughout the BET while struggling to hit outside shots, and tonight when the team desperately needed his heroics, he just didn't have anything to give.

The bench, mostly Hollis Thompson, were able to give some offensive help while some of the starters scuffled, but they just couldn't guard a chair out there tonight.

Finally, lost in this debacle is the great play by Chris Wright over the past few weeks.  I said at the start of the season that his improved play would be critical to any post-season success for the Hoyas.  He pushed Georgetown to the Big East championship game, but didn't get much help tonight to win the opening NCAA tourney game.


HD BOX SCORE

Ohio Bobcats vs Georgetown
3/18/10 7:25pm at Providence, R.I. - Dunkin' Donuts Center
Final score: Ohio Bobcats 97, Georgetown 83

Ohio Bobcats            Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
WASHINGTON, De         37:37  +14  12/93  4- 9  0- 0  4- 8  9/53  2/26  1/68  2/69  0/35  5/26  5/30   2
Freeman, Tommy         27:16  + 7  11/62  1- 1  3- 4  0- 0  5/35  0/18  0/47  1/49  0/25  0/14  3/24   5
van Kempen, Kenneth    27:49  + 9   9/67  4- 5  0- 0  1- 2  5/35  2/17  2/53  2/53  1/27  0/16  2/23   4
Bassett, Armon         40:00  +14  32/97  4- 7  5-10  9-10 17/55  3/23  0/73  4/72  0/39  0/26  3/34   0
Cooper, D.J            37:13  +15  23/92  3- 4  5- 8  2- 2 12/51  8/22  3/68  3/68  0/34  2/24  1/27   3
Baltic, Ivo            03:20  + 1   0/ 7  0- 1  0- 0  0- 0  1/ 6  0/ 3  0/ 5  0/ 5  0/ 5  0/ 3  0/ 7   0
Adedipe, Adetunji      00:15  - 2   0/ 0  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 1  0/ 0  0/ 3  0/ 0  0/ 3   0
Keely, Reggie          10:59  + 6   6/27  3- 4  0- 0  0- 0  4/16  0/ 7  0/19  0/17  1/ 8  0/ 7  1/ 5   3
Sayles, Asown          15:31  + 6   4/40  0- 1  0- 1  4- 4  2/24  0/12  0/31  0/27  1/19  0/14  2/17   1
TOTALS                 40:00       97    19-32 13-23 20-26    55 15/32  6/73 13/72  3/39  8/25 18/32  18
.                                        0.594 0.565 0.769       0.469 0.082 0.181 0.077 0.320 0.562    

Georgetown              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
VAUGHN, Julian         10:12  - 9   2/11  1- 1  0- 1  0- 0  2/10  0/ 3  0/18  1/18  0/10  0/ 6  2/ 7   2
MONROE, Greg           37:23  -12  19/80  7-11  0- 0  5- 7 11/57  6/23  1/68  7/69  2/30  6/31  7/24   5
WRIGHT, Chris          40:00  -14  28/83  6- 9  3- 9  7-10 18/61  3/22  0/72  4/73  0/32  0/34  1/26   0
FREEMAN, Austin        31:52  - 5   9/68  3- 7  1- 4  0- 0 11/50  2/21  0/58  3/61  0/23  0/28  2/19   2
CLARK, Jason           38:30  -11   7/81  2- 3  1- 3  0- 0  6/60  3/27  3/69  2/71  0/31  2/34  4/26   4
THOMPSON, Hollis       21:04  + 3  16/57  3- 3  3- 5  1- 1  8/37  0/15  0/37  0/39  2/16  1/19  0/14   5
SANFORD, Vee           04:37  - 7   0/ 6  0- 2  0- 0  0- 0  2/ 8  0/ 2  0/10  1/ 9  0/ 5  2/ 6  0/ 4   1
BENIMON, Jerrelle      16:22  -15   2/29  1- 3  0- 0  0- 1  3/22  0/11  1/28  1/25  1/13  3/12  1/10   2
TOTALS                 40:00       83    23-39  8-22 13-19    61 14/31  5/72 19/73  5/32 14/32 17/25  21
.                                        0.590 0.364 0.684       0.452 0.069 0.260 0.156 0.438 0.680

Efficiency: Ohio Bobcats 1.347, Georgetown 1.137
eFG%: Ohio Bobcats 0.700, Georgetown 0.574
Substitutions: Ohio Bobcats 16, Georgetown 32

2-pt Shot Selection:
Dunks: Ohio Bobcats 2-3, Georgetown 2-2
Layups/Tips: Ohio Bobcats 8-15, Georgetown 17-28
Jumpers: Ohio Bobcats 9-14, Georgetown 4-9

Fast break pts (% FG pts): Ohio Bobcats 4 (5.2), Georgetown 8 (11.4)
Pts (eff.) after steal: Ohio Bobcats 6 (100.0), Georgetown 6 (120.0)
Seconds per poss: Ohio Bobcats 18.4, Georgetown 14.4



------------------

All stats pages will be updated by the end of the weekend.

Turnovers, and their importance

Georgetown went into this year's Big East tournament as the 8th seed and an enigma, and came up one possession short of winning the whole thing.

There's one very good reason that the Hoyas played so well last week - they stopped committing turnovers. While Georgetown has averaged turning the ball over about 21% of the time, they only gave it up 15% of the time in the BET.

Here's the game log from the tournament:
.                             TO Rate
Opponent           Result    Game  Opp Avg
South Florida        W       16.2    18.1
Syracuse             W       17.6    22.7
Marquette            W       14.1    22.2
West Virginia        L       11.3    19.8
The first two columns should be self-explanatory; the third column is G'town's TO rate in the game, the final column is their opponent's average TO rate forced on the season.
Not only did the Hoyas reduce their turnovers by ~30% during the BET, they gave up the ball progressively less, relative to the competition, in each game.



The correlation between TO rate and post-season success is nothing new. Let's take a look at the past three post-seasons (2009 never happened, got it?).
2006 Post-Season
(season avg = 18.8)
.                             TO Rate
Opponent           Result   Game   Opp Avg
Notre Dame           W      14.2    15.5
Marquette            W      14.2    20.1
Syracuse             L      29.1    22.1
Northern Iowa        W      17.0    19.0
Ohio St.             W      13.4    20.2
Florida              L      21.4    22.4
The 2005-6 team was JTIII's first true success story at Georgetown, beating two very good Big East opponents before the debacle against the Orange in the BET. Since Notre Dame never forces many turnovers, the first game was not a surprise, but the Hoyas held onto the ball against Marquette and won, and were a turnover disaster against Syracuse and lost.

The results were similar in the NCAA's: faced with a purported superior foe (tOSU), Georgetown simply refused to waste possessions and this led to the upset.  In the next round, Georgetown gave the ball up more than 20% of the time and lost.

2007 Post-Season
(season avg = 22.0)
.                             TO Rate
Opponent           Result   Game   Opp Avg
Villanova            W      15.2    23.1
Notre Dame           W      15.7    20.9
Pittsburgh           W      15.9    18.5
Belmont              W      19.4    19.4
Boston College       W      18.2    18.1
Vanderbilt           W      19.5    21.8
North Carolina       W      13.4    21.4
Ohio St.             L      24.0    20.2
The story is even simpler in 2007 - during the run to the Big East title, the Hoyas never gave up turnovers even 16% of the time after averaging 22% throughout the year.  And in the NCAA, facing a superior opponent in North Carolina, Georgetown managed one of their lowest turnover rates all season to pull the convincing upset.  But the party came to an end with a sloppy performance in the re-match against the Buckeyes.

2008 Post-Season
(season avg = 21.2)
.                             TO Rate
Opponent           Result   Game   Opp Avg
Villanova            W      23.9    23.4
West Virginia        W      17.5    22.6
Pittsburgh           L      20.1    20.5
MD Baltimore Count   W      25.1    19.0
Davidson             L      32.3    24.0
In 2008, the Hoyas just didn't have the magic touch. They overcame a generous game against Nova by shooting out of their minds from behind the arc [17/28 3FG], and overcame a sloppy game against UMBC by out-athleting them. Otherwise, turnovers meant losses.


Is this year's BET a harbinger of an NCAA tourney run?  The Hoyas certainly showed that they are capable of hanging on to the ball for a multiple game stretch, but looking at 2006 and 2007, it only takes one careless game to end the season.

So, if there's nary a mention of turnovers is the game, things are looking up.  But if you hear Bill Raftery dwell on the high number of turnovers Georgetown is committing, be nervous, very nervous.



Bonus summary table!!
.                          Post
Year    Result    Season  Season   Net   Opp Avg
2006     4-2       18.8    18.2   -0.6    19.9
2007     7-1       22.0    17.7   -4.3    20.4
2008     4-2       21.2    23.8    2.6    21.9
2010     3-1       20.9    14.8   -6.1    20.7

Sunday, March 14, 2010

St Louis bracket: log5 prediction

As I did for the Big East tournament and as I did for the NIT last year and the NCAA tourney in 2008, I will be running log5 analysis based on the Pomeroy ratings for at least as long as the Hoyas are in the field.

Here are the percentage odds for advancing to the next round for each team:
Seed  Team           2nd Round  Sweet 16  Elite 8  Final 4
1     Kansas            98.3      83.4     64.1     47.3
16    Lehigh             1.7       0.2      0.01     0.0005
8     UNLV              46.6       7.2      2.7      0.9
9     Northern Iowa     53.4       9.2      3.7      1.2

5     Michigan State    85.8      36.9      9.2       3.7
12    New Mexico St.    14.2       1.8      0.1      0.04
4     Maryland          86.3      57.5     19.8     10.4
13    Houston           13.7       3.7      0.3      0.05

6     Tennessee         52.5      20.0      6.8      2.6
11    San Diego St.     47.5      17.1      5.5      1.2
3     Georgetown        88.5      60.4     30.5     11.4
14    Ohio              11.5       2.5      0.3      0.03

7     Oklahoma St.      40.4      10.6      3.8      0.8
10    Georgia Tech      59.6      20.0      9.0      2.4
2     Ohio State        95.4      68.9     44.0     19.0
15    UCSB               4.6       0.5      0.2      0.009

By the Pomeroy ratings, the Hoyas are the 4th best team in the region at 11th overall, behind 2nd-ranked Kansas, 4th Ohio State, and 10th Maryland, and would likely have to beat two of those three to reach Indianapolis. The upside is they do seem to have lucked out in drawing Tennessee as a #6 seed, for whom the Pomeroy ratings are much lower than the poll voters or RPI. Of course, their mid-season turmoil may be having an effect on KenPom's stats.


Another way of judging how strong a bracket the Hoyas placed them is swapping them with the #3 seed in the other regions. Here's how they would fare by log5 in each region:
#1 Seed        2nd Round  Sweet 16  Elite 8   Final 4
Syracuse          93.2      56.8     27.9      15.3

Kentucky          89.4      56.9     29.8      14.2

Duke              89.0      60.2     37.5      14.2
So, the bump gained by playing Tennessee is smaller than it seems at first, and the downside of the bracket is being in a region with one of the two strongest teams in the field (Kansas/Duke) without the benefit of a particularly weak #2 seed in KenPom-terms like Duke got in swooning Villanova.

The cumulative effect is the Hoyas' chances of making the Final 4 are only 80% of what they'd be in the next strongest region.


I also ran the log5 odds for each of the other Big East teams that made the tourney, sorted by region:
Seed  Team           2nd Round  Sweet 16  Elite 8  Final 4
1     Syracuse          93.8      65.4     47.3     28.2
3     Pitt              88.4      41.0     14.4      5.9

6     Marquette         50.9      33.4     13.1      8.5
2     West Virginia     94.4      57.6     39.9     20.0

9     Louisville        36.4       5.3      2.1      1.1
6     Notre Dame        47.1      17.5      7.6      2.2
2     Villanova         94.6      62.1     32.4     10.5
The odds of #2 seed West Virginia making the Final Four, by getting by teams like New Mexico, Wisconsin and/or Kentucky, are comparable to #2 seed Ohio St.'s chances of making it out of the Midwest.  But Villanova's odds are only about half as likely.  Similarly, Georgetown rates a better chance than fellow #3 seed Pitt, and #6 seed Marquette rates better than #6 seed Notre Dame.

Notes: log5 predictions are made using Pomeroy ratings based on games through Sunday, March 14.
No adjustment has been made for any home court advantage - all games are assumed neutral court.



And a gentle reminder, efficiency ratings and the predictions derived are not destiny.

Recap: West Virginia 60, Georgetown 58

Should I be more upset that Georgetown lost? I never thought they deserved to be in the game, but there they were, tied with 9 seconds left when Da'Sean Butler hits a tough, tough shot.

I think the bourbon is helping.

In a game where Georgetown was obliterated on the defensive boards, struggling to hit outside shots and saw Greg Monroe shut down as well as any time all season, the opportunity to steal a win and the Big East title was still within reach.

After trailing by nine points (50-41) at the under-8 minute media timeout, the Hoyas played stifling defense to twice tie the game, but couldn't get the stops at the end for the win.  West Virginia scored 20 points on their first 21 possessions of the second half, then 8 points in their last four possessions to hang on to the win.

A few pithy comments below before I go to bed.

Let's run the numbers:

TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Visitor                         Home      
.            Georgetown                      West Virginia         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            28        25        53

Effic.        101.8     120.0     110.5       116.4     112.0     114.3  
 
eFG%           44.2      50.0      46.8        46.7      36.0      41.8  
TO%            10.9      12.0      11.4        14.5      28.0      21.0  
OR%            31.2      41.7      35.7        52.9      64.7      58.8  
FTA/FGA        23.1      47.6      34.0        16.7      40.0      27.3  
 
Assist Rate    45.5      66.7      55.0        53.8      75.0      61.9  
Block Rate      0.0      11.8       5.1        15.8       8.3      12.9  
Steal Rate      3.6      16.0       9.5         0.0       4.0       1.9  
 
2FG%           52.6      50.0      51.6        50.0      35.3      43.6  
3FG%           14.3      33.3      25.0        25.0      25.0      25.0  
FT%            83.3      90.0      87.5        80.0     100.0      93.3

This will likely come as a complete shock to those not savvy to tempo-free stats, but tonight's game was not a defensive battle. Rather, that was two teams putting up quite respectable offensive games at an absolutely glacial pace.

In fact, from a cursory scan this was the slowest-paced game Georgetown has played since . . . a 1-point win at West Virginia in 2008 (the Pat Ewing game-saving block game). The Mountaineers are a slow-paced team this year [63 poss/game, 312th nationally], but 53 possessions is positively Big-Ten-like (perhaps WVU is auditioning?).

Offensively, Georgetown didn't do too much wrong other than struggle from behind the arc in the 1st half.

Defensively, the Hoyas didn't force enough turnovers in the Lift-off half, but made up for that with a nice turnovers-forced rate in the Vesper half.  Oh yeah, and they were completely obliterated on the defensive glass.  That was actually worse than the beat-down Pitt put on Georgetown last season.  In fact, as far as I can tell that was the worse defensive rebounding by a Georgetown team since the regular-season-ending loss to Providence way back in 2005.

And that was the single biggest reason Georgetown lost tonight.  Now to be clear, offensive rebounding is the primary offensive weapon for West Virginia (2nd nationally at 42%), but tonight happened to be their high-water mark for the season.  Great.


INDIVIDUAL NET POINTS STATS

Georgetown            Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
Wright, Chris          52   34.5  123.5   22.2      53   112.6   11.9      +6.1  
Monroe, Greg           50   19.1  108.8   10.4      51    92.2    9.4      +1.3  
Freeman, Austin        51   17.5  127.0   11.3      53   107.4   11.4      +0.9  
Clark, Jason           37   15.8   28.6    1.7      38   104.7    8.0      -5.4  
Vaughn, Julian         27   16.7  115.2    5.2      30   103.9    6.2      -0.3  
Thompson, Hollis       24    6.0   92.9    1.3      19   111.2    4.2      -1.6  
Benimon, Jerrelle      19    7.4  135.8    1.9      21   144.4    6.1      -2.1  
TOTALS                 52         108.9   54.0      53   107.9   57.2      -1.3  

West Virginia         Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
BUTLER, Da'Sean        53   28.1  117.0   17.4      52   116.0   12.1      +2.7  
EBANKS, Devin          45    9.6  112.1    4.8      43    99.6    8.6      -1.6  
JONES, Kevin           40   21.2  104.2    8.8      41   119.0    9.8      -1.1  
BRYANT, Darryl         14   16.4   26.1    0.6      12   106.9    2.6      -1.9  
SMITH, Wellington      38   22.8  144.0   12.5      35    95.0    6.7      +5.0  
THOROUGHMAN, Cam        9   28.7  129.1    3.3      12   164.8    4.0      -0.8  
MAZZULLA, Joe          37   16.7  107.2    6.6      37   105.7    7.8      -0.6  
MITCHELL, Casey         7   28.9  122.8    2.5       6    68.7    0.8      +1.4  
FLOWERS, John          13   15.0   97.3    1.9      13   144.5    3.8      -1.4  
KILICLI, Deniz          9    0.0    -      0.0       9    76.2    1.4      -1.4  
TOTALS                 53         113.9   58.5      52   110.3   57.3      +1.5

In a game where Greg Monroe was pushed out of his spots all night and Austin Freeman struggled to score until the most desperate of times (how clutch is Austin Freeman?), Chris Wright simply willed the Hoyas back into the game over and over again.  I may question his outside shooting touch, but I'll never question his heart. And his last-second layup attempt to tie the game was the correct play.

You hate to point a finger at a single player in a game like this, but Jason Clark just couldn't bring anything offensively tonight, after playing very well in the first three games of the tournament.



HD BOX SCORE

Georgetown vs West Virginia
3/13/10 9:00 pm at New York, NY/MSG
Final score: West Virginia 60, Georgetown 58

Georgetown              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
Wright, Chris          40:00  - 2  20/58  6-12  0- 5  8- 8 17/46  7/14  1/53  2/52  0/41  2/27  1/35   2
Monroe, Greg           38:14  + 0  11/58  3- 6  0- 1  5- 6  7/44  3/17  2/51  1/50  0/39  0/25  6/33   2
Freeman, Austin        39:10  - 2  14/58  4- 7  2- 5  0- 0 12/45  1/14  3/53  0/51  0/41  1/26  0/35   1
Clark, Jason           29:11  - 2   2/38  1- 2  0- 3  0- 0  5/35  0/12  0/38  1/37  0/24  0/23  3/25   2
Vaughn, Julian         23:44  - 2   4/29  2- 3  0- 0  0- 0  3/27  0/10  0/30  1/27  1/23  2/15  2/22   5
Thompson, Hollis       16:26  + 4   6/26  0- 0  2- 2  0- 0  2/19  0/ 7  0/19  1/24  0/20  0/10  1/14   2
Benimon, Jerrelle      13:15  - 6   1/23  0- 0  0- 0  1- 2  0/14  0/ 6  0/21  0/19  0/17  1/ 9  0/11   2
TOTALS                 40:00       58    16-30  4-16 14-16    46 11/20  6/53  6/52  1/41  8/27 14/35  16
.                                        0.533 0.250 0.875       0.550 0.113 0.115 0.024 0.296 0.400    

West Virginia           Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
BUTLER, Da'Sean        40:00  + 2  20/60  6-15  1- 5  5- 5 20/56  2/14  0/52  3/53  1/30  4/35  3/27   2
EBANKS, Devin          33:22  + 9   2/53  1- 3  0- 1  0- 0  4/48  1/17  0/43  2/45  1/25  4/30  5/25   1
JONES, Kevin           30:16  - 8  12/41  4- 6  1- 3  1- 2  9/43  0/ 9  0/41  2/40  0/25  3/29  1/22   3
BRYANT, Darryl         09:55  - 3   0/10  0- 0  0- 1  0- 0  1/14  0/ 4  0/12  1/14  0/ 9  1/10  1/ 8   0
SMITH, Wellington      29:49  +12  11/44  4- 6  1- 3  0- 0  9/41  1/11  0/35  1/38  2/21  6/25  4/20   4
THOROUGHMAN, Cam       06:06  - 9   2/11  1- 1  0- 0  0- 0  1/ 9  2/ 4  0/12  1/ 9  0/ 6  1/ 4  0/ 4   3
MAZZULLA, Joe          29:11  + 6   6/46  0- 6  0- 0  6- 6  6/41  6/16  0/37  0/37  0/20  0/25  2/18   1
MITCHELL, Casey        04:34  + 2   5/ 9  0- 1  1- 2  2- 2  3/ 8  0/ 1  1/ 6  0/ 7  0/ 5  0/ 6  1/ 3   0
FLOWERS, John          09:58  - 8   2/12  1- 2  0- 0  0- 0  2/10  0/ 3  0/13  0/13  0/ 3  1/ 6  0/ 4   2
KILICLI, Deniz         06:49  + 7   0/14  0- 1  0- 0  0- 0  1/10  0/ 5  0/ 9  0/ 9  0/ 6  0/ 5  1/ 4   0
TOTALS                 40:00       60    17-41  4-15 14-15    56 12/21  1/52 11/53  4/30 21/35 19/27  16
.                                        0.415 0.267 0.933       0.571 0.019 0.208 0.133 0.600 0.704    

Efficiency: West Virginia 1.132, Georgetown 1.115
eFG%: West Virginia 0.411, Georgetown 0.478
Substitutions: West Virginia 32, Georgetown 20

2-pt Shot Selection:
Dunks: West Virginia 1-1, Georgetown 2-2
Layups/Tips: West Virginia 11-21, Georgetown 13-23
Jumpers: West Virginia 5-19, Georgetown 1-5

Fast break pts (% FG pts): West Virginia 5 (10.9), Georgetown 8 (18.2)
Pts (eff.) after steal: West Virginia 3 (300.0), Georgetown 9 (150.0)
Seconds per poss: West Virginia 26.5, Georgetown 19.1


Friday, March 12, 2010

Recap: Georgetown 80, Marquette 57

Defensive rebounding. Greg Monroe is good. There's your recap.


Oh, you want to hear some more?  In that case, let's run the numbers:

TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Visitor                         Home      
.            Georgetown                      Marquette         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            32        32        64

Effic.        116.7     132.7     124.5       107.3      71.0      88.7  
 
eFG%           53.2      66.0      58.9        50.0      34.6      42.6  
TO%            15.8      12.3      14.0         9.5       9.3       9.3  
OR%            41.2      30.8      36.7        18.8       9.1      13.2  
FTA/FGA        22.6      56.0      37.5        25.0      42.3      33.3  
 
Assist Rate    60.0      40.0      50.0        58.3      25.0      45.0  
Block Rate      6.2      16.7      11.8         4.2       0.0       2.3  
Steal Rate      9.5       0.0       4.7         3.2      12.3       7.8  
 
2FG%           50.0      60.0      54.5        50.0      33.3      41.2  
3FG%           42.9      60.0      50.0        33.3      25.0      30.0  
FT%            57.1      71.4      66.7        85.7      45.5      61.1


The prevailing expectation coming into the game was that the Golden Eagles could win the game by shooting the Hoyas out of the gym from behind the arc, just like they did up in Milwaukee.  But that's not what happened then, and it's not what happened last night.

As Alan pointed out in January, Marquette pulled out the first match-up by controlling two aspects of the game:  turnovers and rebounding.  They were +3 in first-half turnover margin, and then gathered 8 of 18 own missed shots in the second half to hang on a small lead throughout.  So what happened last night?

The Lift-off half indicated that Georgetown was going to correct one of the deficiencies:  rebounding.  Marquette did an excellent job taking care of the ball once again (+2 in turnover margin) but the Hoyas controlled their defensive glass, allowing only 3 offensive rebounds (of 16 available Marquette misses) and two second-chance points.

The Hoyas offense was fairly simply: pound it inside. Georgetown made 11/19 dunks, layups and tip-ins (and only 1/6 2FG jumpers) as Monroe and Vaughn combined to shoot 8/11 on 2FG. This gave some open looks from deep, and several players made one (Wright, Thompson, Vaughn [!]).

My concern for the second half was whether Buzz Williams was going to send everyone to crash the glass on missed shots and turn last night into a replay of the first game. Turns out, I needn't worry.

Marquette missed a lot of shots in the Vesper half - there were 22 available missed shots - but only grabbed 2 of their misses. And while the Hoyas bigs cooled off (Monroe and Vaughn made 2/8 2FG), the guards stepped up with a combined 10/12 2FG, 2/4 3FG to run away with the game.



INDIVIDUAL NET POINTS STATS

Georgetown            Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
Wright, Chris          60   22.0  100.7   13.3      60    85.9   10.3      +2.5  
Monroe, Greg           58   34.6  118.9   23.9      56    84.1    9.4     +10.7  
Freeman, Austin        57   14.6  151.5   12.6      57    87.1    9.9      +4.0  
Clark, Jason           57   12.3  175.7   12.3      59    83.5    9.8      +4.5  
Vaughn, Julian         43   16.5  116.4    8.2      42    65.4    5.5      +3.2  
Thompson, Hollis       25   11.1  150.8    4.2      26   113.7    5.9      -0.3  
Sanford, Vee            6   50.0   66.7    2.0       7    63.6    0.9      +0.6  
Dougherty, Ryan         2    0.0    -      0.0       3    71.1    0.4      -0.4  
Benimon, Jerrelle       9   16.6   72.8    1.1      10   130.0    2.6      -1.2  
STEPKA, Stephen         1    0.0    -      0.0       2   100.0    0.4      -0.4  
Sims, Henry             2    0.0    -      0.0       3    71.1    0.4      -0.4  
TOTALS                 64         123.3   77.6      65    85.6   55.7     +23.2  

Marquette             Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
JOHNSON-ODOM, Darius   51   20.7   50.7    5.3      53   142.7   15.1      -9.7  
ACKER, Maurice         60   19.2  129.7   15.0      60   119.4   14.3      +0.9  
CUBILLAN, David        56    9.8   70.4    3.9      56   121.4   13.6      -6.3  
HAYWARD, Lazar         55   27.7   86.2   13.1      54    99.8   10.8      +0.2  
BUTLER, Jimmy          62   21.2  115.0   15.1      61   121.8   14.9      -0.3  
CADOUGAN, Junior        5   43.3   61.5    1.3       4    90.0    0.7      -0.0  
WILLIAMS, Erik          3    0.0    -      0.0       2   120.0    0.5      -0.5  
FULCE, Joseph          11    9.1    0.0    0.0      10   140.0    2.8      -2.1  
BUYCKS, Dwight         22   17.8   23.4    0.9      20    83.6    3.3      -2.4  
TOTALS                 65          86.7   54.7      64   118.8   76.0     -20.9


Greg Monroe had a tremendous game tonight (duh).  He was 3 assists short of the first triple-double in Georgetown history [23 pts / 12 reb / 7 assists], and he was efficient [ORat = 119] while using 35% of available possessions.  The MSM is going wild over him right now, so I'll just leave it there.  But I will note that his FT shooting is giving me heartburn - at this point, I think that's the biggest hole in his game.

Julian Vaughn deserves some accolades after getting a lot of heat around here for struggling in February.  He made some shots, including the aforementioned "No-no-no-no-yes" 3FG, but the real story was his defense.  He's credited with only two blocks - it sure seemed like he had more - but was a real problem for Marquette all night.  For the last ten minutes of the game, it seemed that he had decided that the Eagles just weren't going to get a shot off in the paint.  His 6 defensive rebounds (of 28 available misses while he was in the game) were his most in a game since DePaul.

The stat line for Chris Wright looks ordinary for him, but his was the tale of two halves.  After struggling in the Lift-off half [ORat = 62, 18% Poss], Wright found another gear after halftime [ORat = 128, 27% Poss] to ensure the win.

At this point, I've decided that Austin Freeman is just not going to make an outside shot in this tournament [0/7 3FG combined].  I think he has too, as he attempted only one in the game, instead driving and taking mid-range shots.  I can't emphasize enough that Freeman is just an offensive machine, even when he can't find his shooting touch.

With Freeman's outside shot gone missing, Jason Clark continues to make enough to keep the defense honest.  He's also become decidedly more aggressive, as he took more 2FG than 3FG for the first time since the Providence game - so much for that one-dimensional comment I made.

Hollis Thompson was able to contribute offensively tonight, but his defense was surprisingly inadequate.  He'll need to play a stronger game against Da'Sean Butler and the rest of West Virginia's long players, as they may be too quick for Julian Vaughn to cover.



HD BOX SCORE

Georgetown vs Marquette
03/12/10 7:00 pm at New York, NY/MSG
Final score: Georgetown 80, Marquette 57

Georgetown              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
Wright, Chris          37:11  +23  15/76  4- 9  1- 2  4- 6 11/55  2/24  1/60  1/60  0/33  1/30  3/35   1
Monroe, Greg           34:18  +22  23/70  8-14  1- 1  4- 8 15/51  7/18  0/56  3/58  3/30  2/28 10/33   1
Freeman, Austin        36:02  +24  12/71  5- 8  0- 1  2- 2  9/52  3/22  0/57  1/57  0/31  2/29  6/34   3
Clark, Jason           36:07  +23  15/74  4- 6  2- 4  1- 1 10/54  3/23  1/59  1/57  0/29  1/29  4/35   1
Vaughn, Julian         25:28  +34   8/63  2- 5  1- 1  1- 2  6/40  1/22  0/42  1/43  2/25  2/17  6/28   4
Thompson, Hollis       16:46  - 5   5/27  1- 2  1- 1  0- 0  3/19  0/ 7  0/26  1/25  0/11  1/12  1/12   5
Sanford, Vee           03:54  - 4   2/ 2  0- 0  0- 1  2- 2  1/ 2  0/ 0  1/ 7  1/ 6  0/ 4  0/ 2  0/ 4   1
Dougherty, Ryan        01:39  + 0   0/ 2  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 1  0/ 0  0/ 3  0/ 2  0/ 1  0/ 1  0/ 2   0
Benimon, Jerrelle      06:11  - 2   0/11  0- 1  0- 1  0- 0  2/10  0/ 4  0/10  0/ 9  0/ 4  1/ 6  1/ 4   2
STEPKA, Stephen        00:45  + 0   0/ 2  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 2  0/ 1  0/ 1  0/ 0  1/ 1   0
Sims, Henry            01:39  + 0   0/ 2  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 1  0/ 0  0/ 3  0/ 2  0/ 1  0/ 1  0/ 2   0
TOTALS                 40:00       80    24-45  6-12 14-21    57 16/30  3/65  9/64  5/34 12/31 33/38  18
.                                        0.533 0.500 0.667       0.533 0.046 0.141 0.147 0.387 0.868    

Marquette               Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
JOHNSON-ODOM, Darius   33:20  -29   4/45  1- 5  0- 3  2- 2  8/43  3/14  0/53  1/51  1/39  0/31  2/24   3
ACKER, Maurice         37:13  -23  16/54  5- 8  2- 3  0- 3 11/51  2/12  1/60  0/60  0/45  0/35  2/29   2
CUBILLAN, David        34:10  -21   3/49  0- 0  1- 3  0- 0  3/46  4/16  0/56  2/56  0/40  0/32  3/27   3
HAYWARD, Lazar         34:29  -15  15/50  3- 9  2- 7  3- 3 16/44  0/12  3/54  2/55  0/38  0/30  3/27   5
BUTLER, Jimmy          38:19  -23  17/52  5-11  1- 1  4- 5 12/51  0/12  0/61  1/62  0/43  2/37  3/30   2
CADOUGAN, Junior       02:47  + 0   1/ 3  0- 0  0- 0  1- 2  0/ 3  0/ 1  0/ 4  1/ 5  0/ 0  1/ 3  0/ 2   2
WILLIAMS, Erik         01:39  + 0   0/ 2  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 3  0/ 1  0/ 2  0/ 3  0/ 0  0/ 2  0/ 1   0
FULCE, Joseph          05:32  - 2   0/12  0- 0  0- 1  0- 0  1/11  0/ 5  0/10  0/11  0/ 5  0/ 7  1/ 4   0
BUYCKS, Dwight         12:31  - 2   1/18  0- 1  0- 2  1- 3  3/18  0/ 7  1/20  0/22  0/15  0/13  2/11   1
TOTALS                 40:00       57    14-34  6-20 11-18    54  9/20  5/64  7/65  1/45  5/38 19/31  18
.                                        0.412 0.300 0.611       0.450 0.078 0.108 0.022 0.132 0.613    

Efficiency: Georgetown 1.250, Marquette 0.877
eFG%: Georgetown 0.579, Marquette 0.426
Substitutions: Georgetown 26, Marquette 24

2-pt Shot Selection:
Dunks: Georgetown 2-2, Marquette 1-1
Layups/Tips: Georgetown 20-35, Marquette 9-20
Jumpers: Georgetown 2-8, Marquette 4-13

Fast break pts (% FG pts): Georgetown 4 (6.1), Marquette 5 (10.9)
Pts (eff.) after steal: Georgetown 2 (66.7), Marquette 6 (120.0)
Seconds per poss: Georgetown 19.8, Marquette 17.4





---------

Stats pages will be updated after the BET.

BET log5 predictions, after quarterfinals

Here's the updated log5 analysis of the BET tourney, using the updated KenPom.com ratings, now that the quarterfinals are in the books.

With three of the four double bye teams losing, lots of change in the odds since yesterday. The biggest jump since the initial log5 prediction (the "Orig" column) unsurprisingly belongs to the Hoyas, who pulled off the biggest upset by knocking off the conference's best team and also saw the second best team on their half of the bracket eliminated.  West Virginia becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the 'chip.

Seed  Team     2nd Rnd   Quarters   Semis   Finals    Champ      Orig
9     USF        100       out       out      out      out        0.1
16    DePaul     out       out       out      out      out        0.0003
8     G'town      -        100       100     55.5     27.8        6.8
1     Cuse        -         -        out      out      out       28.9

12    UConn      out       out       out      out      out        0.8
13    St.J's     100       out       out      out      out        0.06
5     Marq        -        100       100     44.5     19.9        5.2
4     Nova        -         -        out      out      out       12.8

10    SHU        100       out       out      out      out        0.6
15    Provy      out       out       out      out      out        0.06
7     N.Dame      -        100       100     28.4     10.3        2.2
2     Pitt        -         -        out      out      out        9.8

11    Cinci      100       100       out      out      out        0.2
14    Rutgers    out       out       out      out      out        0.0009
6     L'ville     -        out       out      out      out        3.5
3     WVU         -         -        100     71.6     42.0       29.1
Editor's note: These are the percentage probabilities a team will make it to that round, based on KenPom ratings.
"100" means that team did advance to the round, a "-" means the team had a bye to that round.

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Recap: Georgetown 91, Syracuse 84

Georgetown rode the incredibly efficient offensive performances of Chris Wright, Greg Monroe and Jason Clark to an upset of top-seed Syracuse at the Big East tournament today.  This was the first win by the JTIII-led Hoyas against Syracuse away from the Verizon Center.

The Hoyas will take on the Marquette Golden Eagles, who pulled a mild upset of Villanova, tomorrow evening in the semi-finals.


Let's run the numbers:

TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Visitor                         Home      
.            Georgetown                      Syracuse         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            35        39        74

Effic.        106.3     137.2     123.2       114.9     111.8     113.7  
 
eFG%           53.2      75.0      63.2        70.4      57.8      63.6  
TO%            17.2      15.2      16.2        31.6      15.2      23.0  
OR%            25.0      38.5      31.0        41.7      18.8      28.6  
FT Rate        12.9      92.3      49.1        14.8      25.0      20.3  
 
Assist Rate    66.7      66.7      66.7        62.5      56.2      59.4  
Block Rate      0.0       4.3       2.6        20.0       0.0      10.3  
Steal Rate     20.1      15.2      17.6        14.4      12.7      13.5  
 
2FG%           60.0      78.9      69.2        62.5      47.8      53.8  
3FG%           27.3      42.9      33.3        54.5      55.6      55.0  
FT%           100.0      62.5      67.9        50.0      87.5      75.0

The big picture number today is the final offensive efficiency for Georgetown today.  The Hoyas finished the game averaging over 1.2 points per possession.  In their first 31 games of the season, the Syracuse Orange had only thrice allowed a team to score more than 1.1 points per possession:  Louisville (2 losses) and Providence (a win).

Because of the vaunted 2-3 zone, Syracuse normally forces teams to shoot a lot of outside shots:  opponents attempt 3FGs as 41% of all shots from the floor, which is the 10th highest rate against in Div-I.  Today, Georgetown resisted that temptation, as they shot 18 3FGAs on a total of 58 shot attempts [= 31%], just about at their season average [30%].

Instead, the Hoyas pounded it inside.  A lot.  If you've been paying attention around here, you may have noticed a post earlier this week breaking out each player's shot selection over the past three months of the season.  As a team, the Hoyas take 67% of their 2-pt shots as either dunks, layups or tip-ins - a fantastic percentage.  In today's game, Georgetown was even better, taking 82% of the shots from in close.

Those shots came from a variety of ways, either on the secondary break, post moves from Greg Monroe or off touch passes to a guard running the baseline (especially Chris Wright in the 1st half, but all the guards in the 2nd half).  And a lot of them went in - 67% of them, in fact.  That's actually not much higher than the Hoyas have averaged on layups and tips all season (61%).

This wasn't a fluke offensive performance, but rather a team successfully running a game strategy.  Of course, cutting the turnover rate down about four percentage points from the conference season average certainly helped by adding 4 possessions with a scoring attempt.


The biggest non-Georgetown story of the game was the shocking injury to Arinze Onuaku late in the game.  The extent of his knee injury should become known on Friday, but hopefully it just looked much worse than it was.  


INDIVIDUAL NET POINTS STATS

Georgetown            Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
Wright, Chris          72   23.4  145.7   24.5      72   107.4   15.5      +7.8  
Monroe, Greg           72   17.3  146.3   18.2      72    98.2   14.1      +5.0  
Freeman, Austin        67   23.1  111.3   17.2      68   103.4   14.1      +2.2  
Clark, Jason           65   18.6  136.5   16.5      67   115.8   15.5      +1.8  
Vaughn, Julian         16   11.8   94.0    1.8      18   180.6    6.5      -3.2  
Thompson, Hollis       48   20.0   95.2    9.1      48    89.8    8.6      +0.5  
Sanford, Vee            7   25.0   85.7    1.5       7    90.0    1.3      +0.1  
Benimon, Jerrelle      14   16.7   28.6    0.7      13   108.5    2.8      -2.0  
Sims, Henry             4    0.0    -      0.0       5   165.3    1.7      -1.7  
TOTALS                 73         123.7   89.6      74   108.1   80.0     +10.5  

Syracuse              Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
JACKSON, Rick          60   17.9   59.7    6.4      59   122.2   14.4      -7.4  
RAUTINS, Andy          74   19.8  117.3   17.2      73   126.7   18.5      -1.4  
JOHNSON, Wes           69   23.8  126.1   20.7      68   117.2   15.9      +3.1  
ONUAKU, Arinze         30    9.6  105.7    3.1      27   100.8    5.4      -1.1  
TRICHE, Brandon        32   14.6   82.1    3.8      31    94.3    5.8      -1.3  
JARDINE, Scoop         47   29.5  117.5   16.3      48   129.7   12.4      +1.1  
JOSEPH, Kris           58   17.5  155.9   15.9      59   126.4   14.9      +2.0  
TOTALS                 74         113.5   83.3      73   119.9   87.5      -4.4 

While for long stretches of the game it looked like the Wright and Monroe show, neither player used as many as 25% of available possessions, with Monroe actually using less than 20%.

Chris Wright had a great shooting game today - those driving layups that we talked about yesterday were dropping for him.  His shot selection (twice as many 2FGAs as 3FGs) was outstanding and appropriate.  He also was second on the team with 6 rebounds (5 defensive), as his motor looked to be running about one gear faster than everyone else out there.

Greg Monroe may still be receiving complaints for his passivity, but he willingly drew defenders to facilitate open looks for his teammates.  A point I only hear Doug Gottlieb mention afterward was that Monroe's defense against the Syracuse bigs was also a key aspect of the game.  The net points tracker brings it out a bit, but Monroe did a great job denying Onuaku touches and harassing Jackson all game.

If someone's seen Austin Freeman's outside shooting touch, please return it to MSG immediately.  Freeman is now 0-6 on 3FG in the Big East tournament.  Today he recognized what was working and what wasn't, and went hard to the basket to get layups and FTs.  He'll need to start making some outside shots for the Hoyas to continue to advance.

Jason Clark has been doing his best to cover for his teammate behind the arc:  his 3/7 3FG shooting today brings him up to 7/13 for the tourney, as it appears that his late-season shooting slump [9/31 in the seven games prior to this week] is over.  His excellent play so far is the biggest difference over the past few weeks, and if the announcers can get his name correct, I hope they acknowledge him a bit more.

Julian Vaughn didn't see a lot of playing time today, as he struggled defensively and was often replaced by Hollis Thompson.  Thompson was solid for a freshman in his first BET, until late in the game at the FT line where he missed 4 consecutive attempts.  At one point Austin Freeman clearly suggested that he "MAKE THEM."

Vee Sanford continues to see playing time with Freeman back, and continues to be a plus off the bench - his ability to be at least a modest scoring threat allows the offense to continue to run seamlessly when he's in (as opposed to Benimon and Sims).


HD BOX SCORE

Georgetown vs Syracuse
3/11/10 12:00 pm at New York, NY/MSG
Final score: Georgetown 91, Syracuse 84

Georgetown              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
Wright, Chris          38:48  + 9  27/89  8-11  2- 5  5- 6 16/57  6/22  2/72  3/72  0/36  1/30  5/27   2
Monroe, Greg           38:26  + 6  17/88  6- 9  0- 0  5- 8  9/56  7/26  4/72  2/72  1/37  1/29  9/27   3
Freeman, Austin        36:48  +10  16/84  6-11  0- 3  4- 4 14/52  3/24  3/68  1/67  0/37  2/27  2/27   2
Clark, Jason           36:44  + 4  17/83  3- 4  3- 7  2- 3 11/53  4/25  2/67  1/65  0/37  2/27  1/25   0
Vaughn, Julian         11:53  -11   4/19  2- 2  0- 0  0- 0  2/17  0/ 6  0/18  1/16  0/ 8  0/ 9  0/ 2   2
Thompson, Hollis       23:21  +18   8/66  1- 1  1- 3  3- 7  4/36  0/19  3/48  1/48  0/28  3/19  2/20   2
Sanford, Vee           03:36  + 3   2/ 8  1- 1  0- 0  0- 0  1/ 5  1/ 2  0/ 7  1/ 7  0/ 2  0/ 2  0/ 4   0
Benimon, Jerrelle      07:44  + 0   0/14  0- 1  0- 0  0- 0  1/10  1/ 6  0/13  1/14  0/ 6  0/ 5  0/ 5   2
Sims, Henry            02:40  - 4   0/ 4  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 4  0/ 2  0/ 5  0/ 4  0/ 4  0/ 2  0/ 3   0
TOTALS                 40:00       91    27-40  6-18 19-28    58 22/33 14/74 11/73  1/39  9/30 20/28  13
.                                        0.675 0.333 0.679       0.667 0.189 0.151 0.026 0.300 0.714    

Syracuse                Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
JACKSON, Rick          33:02  -14   4/65  2- 6  0- 0  0- 0  6/49  2/24  2/59  5/60  2/33  2/23  3/21   4
RAUTINS, Andy          40:00  - 7  14/84  1- 1  4- 9  0- 0 10/59 11/27  0/73  5/74  0/40  1/28  3/30   1
JOHNSON, Wes           38:14  - 6  24/79  7-12  3- 5  1- 2 17/55  1/20  3/68  3/69  2/37  2/26  5/28   5
ONUAKU, Arinze         17:02  + 6   3/37  1- 2  0- 0  1- 2  2/22  1/12  1/27  0/30  1/18  0/10  3/13   2
TRICHE, Brandon        18:07  + 4   2/39  1- 2  0- 0  0- 0  2/26  3/14  3/31  2/32  0/19  0/11  1/11   2
JARDINE, Scoop         23:44  -12  19/50  4- 9  2- 3  5- 6 12/37  1/13  0/48  2/47  0/24  0/19  2/22   3
JOSEPH, Kris           29:51  - 6  18/66  5- 7  2- 3  2- 2 10/47  0/18  0/59  0/58  0/29  2/23  3/25   4
TOTALS                 40:00       84    21-39 11-20  9-12    59 19/32  9/73 17/74  5/40  8/28 21/30  21
.                                        0.538 0.550 0.750       0.594 0.123 0.230 0.125 0.286 0.700    

Efficiency: Georgetown 1.247, Syracuse 1.135
eFG%: Georgetown 0.621, Syracuse 0.636
Substitutions: Georgetown 21, Syracuse 24

2-pt Shot Selection:
Dunks: Georgetown 0-0, Syracuse 1-1
Layups/Tips: Georgetown 22-33, Syracuse 17-29
Jumpers: Georgetown 5-7, Syracuse 3-9

Fast break pts (% FG pts): Georgetown 4 (5.6), Syracuse 7 (9.3)
Pts (eff.) after steal: Georgetown 23 (164.3), Syracuse 14 (155.6)
Seconds per poss: Georgetown 18.8, Syracuse 13.9





Occasional contributor Ray Floriani was at the game, and sent along his thoughts:
NEW YORK CITY - The offensive numbers were impressive. Georgetown had a 125 OE while Syracuse checked in at 114. The deciding factor was turnovers. The pace was 74 possessions as Syracuse will run. Georgetown is known for its Princeton (variation) offense but will push if the opportunity arises, especially off turnovers. Georgetown had an 11-9 scoring edge off fast breaks. Hoyas cared for the ball with a 16% rate while Syracuse was too high at 23%.

Georgetown missed a number of free throws in the stretch but still had a significant 50-20 edge in free throw rate. A look at three point attempts shows why. The Orange took 39% of their attempts beyond the arc, Georgetown took only 20%. In late game Syracuse was in a fouling mode which inflates the FT rate, but the Hoyas simply did a better job attacking the basket all game.

John Thompson III noted after beating a good South Florida team on Wednesday, his club is physically and emotionally at their best right now. It showed against Syracuse. The Hoyas are very loose yet playing hungry, poised to make a significant tourney run.

Coach Thompson also commented on Austin Freeman’s diabetes noting it hasn’t altered his stamina or performance. The changes are in his [Freeman’s] regular life as Thompson noted and in practice and games there is always someone there to monitor his condition.

Greg Monroe. At times I feel he should do more. The Hoya big man did go for 15 points 10 boards 7 assists, a nice complete game. Monroe doesn’t force the issue nor do they force it into him on offense. Thompson utilized his center's passing skills out of the mid- and high-post and when the time came he got the looks inside and utilized his nice baseline move on the blocks. His numbers and performance today were just fine.

Friday night is for the Big East Jesuit title, Georgetown-Marquette. Fully expect this to go to the wire.


-----------

Stats pages will be updated after the Big East tournament.

BET log5 predictions, after Round 2

Here's the updated log5 analysis of the BET tourney, using the updated KenPom.com ratings, after the 2nd round is in the books.

West Virginia is the big beneficiary of the action thus far, namely Cincinnati's upset of Louisville. Since the initial log5 prediction (the "Orig" column), their odds of a title have gone up nearly 3%, even more than the Hoyas', despite not playing.

Seed  Team     2nd Rnd   Quarters   Semis   Finals    Champ      Orig
9     USF        100       out       out      out      out        0.1
16    DePaul     out       out       out      out      out        0.0003
8     G'town      -        100      36.8     19.2      9.5        6.8
1     Cuse        -         -       63.2     41.2     25.6       28.9

12    UConn      out       out       out      out      out        0.8
13    St.J's     100       out       out      out      out        0.06
5     Marq        -        100      45.2     16.8      7.6        5.2
4     Nova        -         -       54.8     22.9     11.4       12.8

10    SHU        100       out       out      out      out        0.6
15    Provy      out       out       out      out      out        0.06
7     N.Dame      -        100      41.1     13.3      4.0        2.2
2     Pitt        -         -       58.9     23.5      9.0        9.8

11    Cinci      100       100      15.6      4.7      0.9        0.2
14    Rutgers    out       out       out      out      out        0.0009
6     L'ville     -        out       out      out      out        3.5
3     WVU         -         -       84.4     58.6     32.0       29.1
Editor's note: These are the percentage probabilities a team will make it to that round, based on KenPom ratings.
"100" means that team did advance to the round, a "-" means the team had a bye to that round.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Recap: Georgetown 69, South Florida 49

First, let me say "Hats off" to Mex Carey and his crack staff in the athletic department for posting a full stats package for today's game.  Most games played at MSG don't have this info, but the Georgetown website got the stats posted, and now I can post my interpretations.

For perhaps the first time this season, I'll write up the recap as a live blog.  And by "live" blog, I mean on a 10.5 hour time delay.

1st half
Opening tip to 15:44 (GU 4, USF 4):
  • Lots of fans disguised as empty seats to start the game.
  • Vaughn had a textbook post-up to start the game, then bobbled away a great pass from Monroe the next time down.  He has a nice block on defense in response.  It's the Julian Vaughn show.
  • Freeman bodies up on Jones (whom he's guarding on a switch) which results in a miss and a fastbreak layup for Wright.  Next time down, Clark guards Jones and gets taken inside for a layup.
  • Lots of turnovers so far:  2 for each team, on 7 possessions each.
15:44 - 11:48 (GU 14, USF 7)
  • Who is this reporter on the sidelines?  I've never seen her before.
  • Gilchrist looks like a good player - he just made a 15-foot jumper.  That'll be the only shot he makes this half.
  • Clark is working very hard on defense so far guarding Jones.
  • Monroe with a nice drive, and then a nice defensive rebound.  Sets up Wright, who gets the hoop and the harm (a bit of a wild drive in real time, but looked in control on the replay).
  • Vee Sanford sighting!  He appears to have secured a rotation spot.  Benimon up-and-under on a great pass from Monroe.  Fear the Hoyas bench.
  • Wright tries the same driving layup, this time no good.  I'd have to see that one again before I decide he was out of control.  But I think he was.
  • Fran Fraschilla is getting hungry.
 11:48 -7:13 (GU 19, USF 9)
  • Good interior defense by the Hoyas, but USF cleans up a blocked shot for a layup.
  • Jason Clark confused the NBA line for the college line, but still made the shot.
  • Freeman just had a ridiculous block on Jones after getting beat baseline.  He has such deceptive athleticism.
  • Monroe picked up a cheap foul chasing his own missed shot.  A bit of a frustration foul there.  Hoyas switch to a 2-3 zone once Monroe comes out.
  • Freeman with a great backdoor pass to Wright.  "Their cuts are like drives" says Doris Burke; she's used that line before.
  • Jones with an airball from deep.  USF will shoot 2/12 on jumpers in the Lift-off half, including 0/4 3FG.
7:13 - 3:33 (GU 24, USF 12)
  • With the slow pace and lousy outside shooting by the Bulls, this can't be entertaining to watch for any non-Georgetown fan.
  • Monroe back in, and the Hoyas go to a match-up 2/3 zone.  Whoops, he's back out already.  Did he sneak into the game when no one was looking?
  • Karl Hess just pointed about 4 different directions on a ball tipped out of bounds.  Finally, Hoyas ball (and I think the wrong call).
  • Freeman struggling to find his shot.  Missed a baseline jumper earlier, now missed a 3FG.
  • Clark with a between-the-legs dribble into a deep 3FG.  Who says he's only a spot-up shooter?  Oh yeah, that was me.
  • Uh-oh, Jones is finally done trying to set up his teammates.  Two consecutive drives for the foul, the second with a made basket.  If this team had a quality designated shooter (some scrub who could make 40%+ from deep), they'd be a bit more dangerous.  Jones looks like he's all alone out there.
3:33 - Halftime (GU 31 - USF 19)
  • Jason Clark cannot be stopped.  Streaky shooter, but feeling it today.
  • Jones has decided to go it alone.  Two great drives.
  • Monroe back in.  Fraschilla hates the move, then Greg grabs a rebound and scores on a drive.
  • Jones attacks Monroe for another 2 points (followed his own shot).  Kid looks like a pro.
  • Worst halftime interview in college basketball:  John Thompson III.  Never shows his cards.

Second half after a milk-and-cookies break.

2nd half
20:00 - 15:15 (GU 40 - USF 31)
  • Dave Pasch makes a big point about USF's 10 offensive rebounds (officially 9) in the 1st half, but that was on a whopping 23 opportunities - a ton of missed shots.
  • Bulls come out with 2 blocks and 4 points to get it an 8-point deficit.
  • Wright misses a lot of fast break layups trying to draw fouls.
  • Julian Vaughn was called for a foul while backing away from his man.  Literally no contact.
  • And again.  Well, on the replay, he gave a little push down low with his left hand.  Maybe last time too?  Down to a 6-point game.
  • Freeman can't buy a shot, but he draws some free throws.
  • Hoyas interior defense is getting torched off of Jones' passing.
  • Hollis Thompson makes a 3FG.  Georgetown's bench will score 8 points in the game, which is 8 more than the last game (against Cinci).
  • The soundtrack ESPN came up with is not good.  Maybe I'm just getting old.
15:15 - 11:28 (GU 48 - USF 36)
  • Wright hits a 20-foot jumper on a designed play.
  • In his mind, Greg Monroe has never committed a foul.  Doris Burke has his back this time.
  • Five minute monitor break, which changes nothing (checking Wright's jumper).  The arena is completely dead.
  • Jones is now throwing his body as Monroe or any other Hoya to draw fouls.  He's the Dwyane Wade of the Big East.
  • What a great fast break:  Monroe to Wright to Freeman.  I think Monroe is the best on the team at running the break.
11:28 -  7:30 (GU 53 - USF 39)
  • Monroe picks up his fourth foul on a moving screen. Fran and Doris point out that the call is usually the fault of the ball-handler.
  • Wright with a big 3FG after a long possession where the offense looks stagnant.
  • Vaughn fouls out on another moving screen.  Apparantly the officials decided at halftime to make that a point of emphasis.
  • Sims now in.  Doris Burke has a crush on him.
7:30 - 3:50 (GU 63 - USF 46)
  • Henry Sims with a spectacular block - of course he had his hand through the rim to get it.  Burke and Fraschilla explain why that wasn't the baseline official's missed call.  For some reason, I can't imagine Dick Vitale bothering to explain that.
  • Clark hits another 3FG from straight away - that's his shot.  Better save some for tomorrow.
  • I'm barely hanging in, and I'm a Hoya fan.  This is a tough game to watch.
  • Monroe gets clobbered by Jones and Gilchrist - no foul.  Gets his own miss and does get the call (and one).  Contact lens on the floor!
  • Monroe pulls out the spinning drive once again, finishing with his right hand.  And one.
3:50 - End of game (GU 69 - USF 49)
  • Will this game ever end? 
  • Vee Sanford had his jumpshot blocked.  He shoots down too low - that'll need to be corrected over the summer.
  • Dave Pasch letting his Syracuse show, talking about Michael Graham and Jim Boeheim.
  • South Florida makes a three, finally!
  • Game over.

Let's run the numbers:

TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Home                            Visitor   
.            Georgetown                      South Florida         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            29        33        62
 
Effic.        107.4     115.1     111.6        65.8      90.9      79.2  
 
eFG%           51.9      51.6      51.7        26.7      34.0      30.0  
TO%            13.9      18.2      16.2        17.3      21.2      19.4  
OR%            20.0      44.4      33.3        41.7      40.0      40.9  
FT Rate        11.1      18.8      15.3        23.3      72.0      45.5  

Assist Rate    58.3      46.7      51.9        37.5      62.5      50.0  
Block Rate     16.0      15.0      15.6         5.6      14.8      11.1  
Steal Rate      6.9      15.1      11.3         3.5       6.1       4.9  
 
2FG%           44.4      44.4      44.4        32.0      35.0      33.3  
3FG%           44.4      60.0      50.0         0.0      20.0      10.0  
FT%           100.0      83.3      88.9        42.9      72.2      64.0



INDIVIDUAL NET POINTS STATS

Georgetown            Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
Wright, Chris          55   19.7  132.6   14.4      54    75.8    8.2      +6.2  
Monroe, Greg           43   32.4  114.8   16.0      39    70.5    5.5      +8.3  
Freeman, Austin        60   22.6   70.5    9.6      57    83.0    9.5      -0.8  
Clark, Jason           53   14.8  160.5   12.6      53    63.8    6.8      +6.7  
Vaughn, Julian         25   33.5   83.8    7.0      27   100.8    5.4      +0.1  
Thompson, Hollis       25    7.1  119.2    2.1      23    51.5    2.4      +0.5  
Sanford, Vee            6   16.7    0.0    0.0       6   115.2    1.4      -1.3  
Dougherty, Ryan         2   50.0    0.0    0.0       3   126.7    0.8      -1.0  
Benimon, Jerrelle      36    9.6  158.3    5.4      36    67.7    4.9      +1.8  
STEPKA, Stephen         1    0.0    -      0.0       2   150.0    0.6      -0.6  
Sims, Henry             9    9.0  100.0    0.8      10    68.6    1.4      -0.2  
TOTALS                 63         108.5   67.9      62    75.4   46.7     +20.8  

South Florida         Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
HOWARD, Chris          54    8.6   96.9    4.5      55   116.4   12.8      -4.6  
JONES, Dominique       60   34.2   81.2   16.7      62   107.7   13.4      -1.1  
FAMOUS, Jarrid         25   35.7   86.8    7.7      30    73.2    4.4      +2.3  
FITZPATRICK, Toarlyn   45    9.3   59.5    2.5      44   106.1    9.3      -4.4  
MERCER, Mike           53   12.9   49.2    3.4      55   105.6   11.6      -6.1  
CRATER, Anthony        24    8.3    0.0    0.0      22   125.7    5.5      -4.0  
RIVAS, Alex             5    4.0  300.0    0.6       5    75.7    0.8      +0.1  
KARDOK, Ryan            5    2.9  300.0    0.4       4    63.8    0.5      +0.1  
NORIEGA, Shaun          2   12.5  300.0    0.8       1     0.0    0.0      +0.8  
BURWELL, Mike           2   50.0    0.0    0.0       1     0.0    0.0      +0.0  
GILCHRIST, Augustus    35   36.2   74.8    9.5      36   118.1    8.5      -2.3  
TOTALS                 62          75.0   46.0      63   106.0   66.8     -20.2



HD BOX SCORE

South Florida vs Georgetown
3/10/10 12:00 pm at New York, NY/MSG
Final score: Georgetown 69, South Florida 49

South Florida           Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
HOWARD, Chris          35:53  -18   5/44  2- 5  0- 0  1- 2  5/49  3/13  0/55  1/54  1/41  0/36  3/30   4
JONES, Dominique       39:17  -23  21/46  6-13  0- 3  9-14 16/53  4/ 9  1/62  6/60  1/45  1/41  4/33   3
FAMOUS, Jarrid         15:34  + 2   7/24  2- 8  0- 0  3- 4  8/24  0/ 5  0/30  1/25  0/21  4/18  3/14   3
FITZPATRICK, Toarlyn   29:02  -18   2/33  1- 2  0- 0  0- 1  2/33  0/10  1/44  1/45  3/32  2/25  2/26   1
MERCER, Mike           35:10  -20   2/41  1- 9  0- 0  0- 0  9/50  0/12  0/55  1/53  0/41  3/40  4/31   2
CRATER, Anthony        14:25  -13   0/14  0- 0  0- 2  0- 0  2/20  0/ 5  0/22  0/24  0/17  0/16  0/ 9   0
RIVAS, Alex            03:24  - 2   0/ 3  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 5  0/ 1  0/ 5  0/ 5  0/ 3  1/ 4  2/ 3   0
KARDOK, Ryan           02:44  - 1   0/ 3  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 4  1/ 1  1/ 4  0/ 5  0/ 4  0/ 3  0/ 3   0
NORIEGA, Shaun         00:43  + 3   3/ 3  0- 0  1- 1  0- 0  1/ 2  0/ 0  0/ 1  0/ 2  0/ 0  0/ 1  0/ 0   0
BURWELL, Mike          00:43  + 3   0/ 3  0- 0  0- 1  0- 0  1/ 2  0/ 1  0/ 1  0/ 2  0/ 0  0/ 1  0/ 0   0
GILCHRIST, Augustus    23:05  -13   9/31  3- 9  0- 2  3- 3 11/33  0/ 7  0/36  3/35  0/21  5/25  3/16   2
TOTALS                 40:00       49    15-46  1- 9 16-24    55  8/16  3/63 13/62  5/45 18/42 22/33  15
.                                        0.326 0.111 0.667       0.500 0.048 0.210 0.111 0.429 0.667    

Georgetown              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
Wright, Chris          34:21  +16  15/59  4-12  2- 2  1- 1 14/50  4/17  0/54  0/55  0/38  1/28  5/34   4
Monroe, Greg           24:17  +19  16/49  7-14  0- 0  2- 2 14/41  2/13  0/39  4/43  1/29  2/21  5/24   4
Freeman, Austin        37:18  +24   8/67  3- 9  0- 3  2- 2 12/56  4/23  0/57  2/60  1/42  1/31  1/38   0
Clark, Jason           35:07  +20  16/62  2- 4  4- 6  0- 0 10/54  2/18  3/53  0/53  0/41  1/30  5/35   1
Vaughn, Julian         16:58  - 4   6/21  2- 2  0- 0  2- 2  2/22  1/ 6  0/27  5/25  3/20  2/14  0/15   5
Thompson, Hollis       16:23  +17   3/33  0- 1  1- 1  0- 0  2/24  1/12  1/23  0/25  0/21  0/12  1/20   4
Sanford, Vee           03:39  - 2   0/ 4  0- 0  0- 2  0- 0  2/ 5  0/ 2  0/ 6  0/ 6  0/ 6  0/ 3  0/ 7   0
Dougherty, Ryan        01:04  - 1   0/ 2  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 1  0/ 1  0/ 3  1/ 2  0/ 1  0/ 0  0/ 2   0
Benimon, Jerrelle      23:58  +15   4/41  2- 3  0- 0  0- 0  3/34  1/13  1/36  0/36  1/24  3/20  2/25   2
STEPKA, Stephen        00:43  - 3   0/ 0  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 2  0/ 1  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 1   0
Sims, Henry            06:12  - 1   1/ 7  0- 0  0- 0  1- 2  0/ 8  0/ 3  0/10  0/ 9  1/ 8  0/ 6  2/ 9   1
TOTALS                 40:00       69    20-45  7-14  8- 9    59 15/27  5/62 12/63  7/46 11/33 24/42  21
.                                        0.444 0.500 0.889       0.556 0.081 0.190 0.152 0.333 0.571    

Efficiency: Georgetown 1.095, South Florida 0.790
eFG%: Georgetown 0.517, South Florida 0.300
Substitutions: Georgetown 37, South Florida 32

2-pt Shot Selection:
Dunks: Georgetown 0-0, South Florida 4-6
Layups/Tips: Georgetown 16-35, South Florida 9-28
Jumpers: Georgetown 4-10, South Florida 2-12

Fast break pts (% FG pts): Georgetown 11 (18.0), South Florida 0 (0.0)
Pts (eff.) after steal: Georgetown 8 (160.0), South Florida 1 (33.3)
Seconds per poss: Georgetown 18.3, South Florida 20.2

Shot selection and lineup efficiencies - regular season wrap

By now, I'm supposed to have written a very long and well-researched article about the effects of a team losing it's best player (e.g. Harangody at Notre Dame). I haven't yet, due to a hectic schedule. Hopefully over the weekend.

Instead, you'll get a dump article, which is a lot easier for me to crank out. Yes, it's time again for: Georgetown shot selection and lineup efficiencies.

As last time, these stats are for all games from the Washington win forward. This is because of the natural break in the schedule between easy opponents (excluding the Temple game) and better competition. I'm not able to include the Butler game since no play-by-play was available.


First up, shot selection:
Player               Dunks   Layups   2pt J's   3FGA      FTA 
Freeman, Austin      6 /7     70/93    20/63    45/93    61/75
.                             0.753    0.317    0.484    0.813   

Wright, Chris        0 /0     71/115   19/47    23/80    63/86
.                             0.617    0.404    0.287    0.733   

Monroe, Greg         15/15    79/132   24/69    5 /17    93/140
.                             0.598    0.348    0.294    0.664   

Clark, Jason         2 /2     19/38    6 /17    42/99    29/40
.                             0.500    0.353    0.424    0.725   

Vaughn, Julian       21/21    39/64    12/33    0 /4     30/47
.                             0.609    0.364    0.000    0.638   

Thompson, Hollis     1 /1     6 /17    8 /23    12/36    17/25
.                             0.353    0.348    0.333    0.680   

Benimon, Jerrelle    0 /0     4 /11    2 /4     1 /5     13/18
.                             0.364    0.500    0.200    0.722   

Sanford, Vee         0 /0     1 /2     1 /2     2 /7     6 /9
.                             0.500    0.500    0.286    0.667   

Sims, Henry          1 /2     1 /4     1 /4     0 /1     5 /10
.                             0.250    0.250    0.000    0.500


Pithy comments on the starters:
  • At this point, the only player with anything resembling a mid-range game is Chris Wright (40% on 2-pt jumpers). Austin Freeman, who most fans cite as the player with the best mid-range shot, actually has the worst shooting percentage of the regulars.
  • Wright and Greg Monroe are about equally likely to make a 3FG, but Wright shoots nearly as many as Freeman and Jason Clark. At this point, his game reminds me a lot of senior Dominic James, although Chris is bigger and stronger. He's also got one more summer and season to either improve his shooting mechanics or become more selective.
  • Freeman gets it done from behind the arc or driving to the rim. I think people are starting to understand what a devastating offensive force he really is - he's the player I always thought Darrel Owens would become.
  • I'll bet Greg Monroe's shooting percentages will go up across the board his junior season. I'd like to be proven correct.
  • I often criticize Jason Clark for not driving to the basket more often, but his shooting percentage on layups shows that this isn't necessarily a good option. Perhaps he needs to add some more strength.
  • Julian Vaughn, in contrast to Monroe, goes for the dunk when possible. Throw it down, big fella.


Lineup stats (minimum of ten possession played on offense and defense):

.                                                Offense                    Defense
Lineup                                     # Poss  Eff. Secs/poss    # Poss  Eff. Secs/poss
Clark--Freeman--Monroe--Vaughn--Wright        474   114    17.6         474   105    18.0
Clark--Freeman--Monroe--Thompson--Wright      157   108    16.6         141   101    17.8
Benimon--Clark--Freeman--Monroe--Wright       127   108    19.0         118   103    16.6
Benimon--Freeman--Monroe--Thompson--Wright     82    88    17.9          76   108    14.0
Clark--Monroe--Thompson--Vaughn--Wright        72    97    17.7          71    96    21.5
Freeman--Monroe--Thompson--Vaughn--Wright      68   128    18.5          70    96    19.0
Clark--Freeman--Monroe--Thompson--Vaughn       46   111    18.2          41    98    15.0
Benimon--Clark--Monroe--Thompson--Wright       39   123    18.8          36   131    23.6
Benimon--Clark--Freeman--Monroe--Thompson      33    94    18.5          37    95    15.8
Clark--Freeman--Thompson--Vaughn--Wright       31   107    15.4          35    91    17.6
Clark--Freeman--Monroe--Sims--Wright           29   110    20.2          31   123    18.5
Freeman--Monroe--Sims--Thompson--Wright        22   127    17.8          21    86    22.4
Benimon--Clark--Freeman--Vaughn--Wright        21   129    16.5          27   115    20.4
Benimon--Freeman--Thompson--Vaughn--Wright     17    77    17.3          20   100    22.5
Clark--Monroe--Sims--Thompson--Wright          16    69    15.8          15    80    16.1
Benimon--Clark--Freeman--Thompson--Vaughn      15   100    19.1          17    65    18.6
Benimon--Clark--Monroe--Sanford--Wright        14   121    11.1          13    69    18.5
Clark--Monroe--Sanford--Thompson--Wright       13   115    12.0          10   120    16.0
Clark--Freeman--Sims--Vaughn--Wright           10    90    21.8          10    80    12.6

It's important to keep in mind that I'm not accounting for the quality of the opposition in the lineup efficiencies, so those will a small number of possessions can be greatly skewed depending upon who else was on the court.

Below are Alan's comments on the lineups:
  • It's not surprising, but the two lineups with more than 60 total possessions (30 each way) that register a negative net efficiency feature two bench players at once (Benimon and Thompson). There's a whole lot of obvious reason for this, but the Hoyas are losing the game when two of their starters are out.
  • The "big" lineup -- with 6'8" Hollis Thompson replacing 6'2" Jason Clark, has been our most effective lineup that's played anything close to a significant number of possessions. Thompson seems to like to coach small; perhaps he should press to see some size more often.
  • Vaughn's lack of playing time is somewhat of a shame, simply because the team is much better when he's in and playing well. Now it might be simply match-ups or performance, and then his lower minutes might be a good decision. But if it is some other reason, it is disappointing, because the team seems to be substantially better when he's in.