Saturday, February 6, 2010

Recap: Georgetown 103, Villanova 90

Will the real Georgetown basketball team please stand up?

In a game that Jay Wright and the Villanova Wildcats uglied up as much as possible - in order to get deep into the virtually non-existent Hoyas bench - the good guys prevailed in the end by making enough free throws.

While the story of the game for most fans will be the lights out shooting by Jason Clark and Austin Freeman in the Lift-Off half [a combined 6/7 3FG], in fact it was the defense forcing 14 turnovers in 38 possessions that was the real difference-maker.  All those turnovers effectively shut down the Big East's best offense for 20 minutes, and allowed Georgetown to build a 19-point lead that they were able to ride to victory.

Let's run the numbers:

TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Home                            Visitor   
.            Georgetown                      Villanova         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            40        45        85
 
Effic.        123.6     117.7     120.6        76.7     131.0     105.3  
 
eFG%           70.4      61.9      66.7        48.1      56.0      52.9  
TO%            24.7      22.2      23.4        39.6       4.4      21.1  
OR%            25.0      25.0      25.0        30.8      34.8      33.3  
FTA/FGA        48.1     176.2(!)  104.2        22.2      40.5      33.3  

Assist Rate    86.7      66.7      77.8        33.3      35.0      34.4  
Block Rate     10.5      22.7      17.1        21.4      20.0      20.7  
Steal Rate     12.4       0.0       5.9        12.4       8.9      10.5  
 
2FG%           50.0      66.7      58.6        52.6      59.1      56.1  
3FG%           61.5      33.3      52.6        25.0      35.0      32.1  
FT%            92.3      73.0      78.0        83.3      70.6      73.9

The tempo-free box shows 85 possessions in the game, but it was actually 83. The statistical trick used to estimate pace started to struggle due to the disproportionate number of loose-ball fouls in this game.

The Hoyas may have put up 103 points against Villanova, but two facts make this number less impressive than it appeared to the partisans at the Verizon Center cheering on those last 3 points.
As alluded to at the top, the real story was the defense in the 1st half limiting Villanova scoring opportunities.  However, creating turnovers normally has not been JTIII's m.o. for his defenses; rather, his teams try to hold down good shooting opportunites (eFG%).  The Hoyas had steals on only 5 of the Wildcats' 14 turnovers in the half, which is quite a low percentage.  It turns out that Georgetown was able to draw 6 offensive fouls in the half (by my count; can that be right?), which don't show up as steals but still are directly attributable to the defensive effort.  (I should probably add an offensive fouls counter to the stats program, but that will have to wait until the post-season.)

The Hoyas shot better from outside than inside in the 1st half [7/14 2FG, 8/13 3FG], but they came out with a different strategy in the 2nd half:  get the ball inside.  G'town took only 6 attempts from behind the arc in the Vesper half (making 2), while shooting 6/9 on dunks, layups and tip-ins (and 4/6 on 2-pt jumpers).

Of course, the real story of the interminable 2nd half was the procession to the layup line as Villanova tried to extend the game while hoisting 20(!) 3FGAs.  To me, the star at the FT line was Greg Monroe, who sank 7/9 in the last six minutes of the game.  Hopefully that performance will help to get Monroe out of his season-long second-half FT-shooting funk.


INDIVIDUAL NET POINTS STATS

Georgetown            Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
Wright, Chris          55   13.7  110.1    8.3      53    91.5    9.7      +0.0  
Monroe, Greg           72   27.1  107.4   20.9      69   104.9   14.5      +3.5  
Freeman, Austin        82   18.7  140.6   21.6      81   105.7   17.1      +4.9  
Clark, Jason           72   16.8  107.7   13.0      71   105.3   15.0      -0.8  
Vaughn, Julian         49   24.8  127.8   15.5      49   107.2   10.5      +3.8  
Thompson, Hollis       55   22.2  103.4   12.6      54   107.4   11.6      +0.3  
Sanford, Vee            1    0.0    -      0.0       1   300.0    0.6      -0.6  
Benimon, Jerrelle      33   10.5  119.0    4.1      31   112.4    7.0      -1.3  
Sims, Henry             1    0.0    -      0.0       1   300.0    0.6      -0.6  
TOTALS                 84         116.8   96.1      82   105.5   86.5      +9.4

Villanova             Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
PENA, Antonio          24   28.8   99.7    6.9      24   121.9    5.8      -0.2  
REYNOLDS, Scottie      64   39.5   96.6   24.4      64   119.4   15.3      +1.7  
FISHER, Corey          63   23.5  145.9   21.6      64   111.3   14.3      +6.2  
REDDING, Reggie        35    7.2  127.0    3.2      37   120.7    8.9      -2.8  
STOKES, Corey          44   19.7  104.1    9.0      41   100.3    8.2      +0.6  
WAYNS, Maalik          35   21.7  107.4    8.2      34   105.4    7.2      +0.6  
YAROU, Mouphtaou       29    8.7  127.3    3.2      32    95.5    6.1      -1.0  
CHEEK, Dominic         33   19.7   76.7    5.0      37   118.2    8.7      -3.2  
SUTTON, Maurice        13    6.2  233.3    1.9      13   159.9    4.2      -0.8  
KING, Taylor           26   17.4   94.8    4.3      26   133.7    7.0      -2.2  
ARMWOOD, Isaiah        44    8.5   41.9    1.6      48   125.0   12.0      -6.8  
TOTALS                 82         106.4   89.2      84   116.3   97.7      -8.4

Stars of the game were obviously Monroe and Freeman, but my stats program didn't love Jason Clark today.  Why not?  It turns out that all eight of Clark's made FGs today were assisted, which, when combined with his goofy eFG% today [=100%], gives some screwy results in the stats workup.  But it should also be pointed out that Clark had 5 TOs to only 2 assists, which also hurt his net points total.

I, and probably every other Hoya observer, have made a big deal about the fact that the Hoyas struggle when Chris Wright doesn't score 10 points.  He didn't again today while playing only 27 minutes, but Georgetown still prevailed.  But take a look at his line - the Hoyas were a much better defensive team while he was on the court.  Was that coincidence (he forced only 1 turnover)?  I'm not sure.  I do wonder if his absence lead to some of Clark's turnovers (by forcing Jason to become a primary ball-handler).

Julian Vaughn and Hollis Thompson were both solid today.  Vaughn's 7/7 FT shooting will get the headlines, but it should be noted that he was the only Hoya to gather an offensive rebound (all others were team rebounds).  And Thompson's five defensive rebounds were second on the team.  Jerrelle Benimon did the dirty work and made enough FTs, but did anyone else notice his behind-the-back dribble to advance the ball in the last few seconds of the game (when Villanova was still fouling down 11 with 5 seconds left)?  Nice.


HD BOX SCORE

Villanova vs Georgetown
02/06/10 12:00 at Verizon Center
Final score: Georgetown 103, Villanova 90

Villanova               Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
PENA, Antonio          11:28  + 0   7/28  3- 4  0- 0  1- 2  4/17  0/ 9  0/24  2/24  0/ 7  2/ 5  1/ 6   5
REYNOLDS, Scottie      31:26  - 5  24/72  3- 8  3- 9  9-11 17/50  6/19  1/64  6/64  0/22  0/25  1/18   1
FISHER, Corey          32:10  -11  24/63  7-10  1- 3  7- 8 13/52  2/15  1/64  1/63  0/25  1/27  2/21   3
REDDING, Reggie        16:48  -14   2/35  1- 2  0- 0  0- 0  2/23  2/12  1/37  1/35  0/12  0/10  3/11   3
STOKES, Corey          20:36  + 5  10/50  2- 3  2- 6  0- 0  9/39  0/14  1/41  1/44  0/13  1/21  2/15   4
WAYNS, Maalik          15:55  + 5   9/45  3- 6  1- 4  0- 0 10/35  0/11  1/34  1/35  0/ 8  1/20  0/11   4
YAROU, Mouphtaou       15:40  + 6   2/39  1- 2  0- 0  0- 0  2/25  1/12  1/32  0/29  1/13  1/13  2/ 8   4
CHEEK, Dominic         15:05  -17   6/31  3- 3  0- 2  0- 0  5/27  0/ 8  2/37  2/33  0/14  0/14  1/ 9   2
SUTTON, Maurice        06:30  -10   0/14  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/14  0/ 5  1/13  0/13  2/ 6  2/ 9  0/ 4   2
KING, Taylor           13:52  - 4   6/31  0- 1  2- 3  0- 0  4/25  0/ 8  0/26  2/26  1/12  1/14  0/ 9   5
ARMWOOD, Isaiah        20:30  -20   0/42  0- 2  0- 1  0- 2  3/38  0/15  0/48  0/44  2/13  2/22  3/13   4
TOTALS                 40:00       90    23-41  9-28 17-23    69 11/32  9/84 16/82  6/29 12/36 18/24  37
.                                        0.561 0.321 0.739       0.344 0.107 0.195 0.207 0.333 0.750    

Georgetown              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
Wright, Chris          27:41  +15   7/69  1- 2  1- 4  2- 2  6/36  3/19  1/53  1/55  0/27  0/16  3/17   5
Monroe, Greg           33:14  + 7  19/83  4- 8  0- 1 11-14  9/42  6/17  1/69  6/72  2/35  0/25  8/31   2
Freeman, Austin        39:28  +12  25/99  6- 7  2- 5  7-10 12/48  3/19  1/81  1/82  0/41  0/25  1/35   2
Clark, Jason           34:40  + 9  24/88  2- 4  6- 7  2- 3 11/41  2/15  2/71  5/72  1/35  0/22  3/29   3
Vaughn, Julian         22:56  +10  13/60  3- 5  0- 0  7- 7  5/29  3/11  0/49  4/49  2/22  3/17  0/17   2
Thompson, Hollis       26:07  + 9  12/72  1- 2  1- 2  7-10  4/28  3/16  0/54  3/55  0/26  0/14  5/28   4
Sanford, Vee           00:15  - 1   0/ 2  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 1  0/ 1  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 1   0
Benimon, Jerrelle      15:24  + 5   3/40  0- 1  0- 0  3- 4  1/16  1/11  0/31  1/33  2/19  0/ 6  1/21   2
Sims, Henry            00:15  - 1   0/ 2  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 1  0/ 1  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 1   0
TOTALS                 40:00       103   17-29 10-19 39-50    48 21/27  5/82 21/84  7/41  6/24 24/36  20
.                                        0.586 0.526 0.780       0.778 0.061 0.250 0.171 0.250 0.667

Efficiency: Georgetown 1.226, Villanova 1.098
eFG%: Georgetown 0.667, Villanova 0.529
Substitutions: Georgetown 23, Villanova 82

2-pt Shot Selection:
Dunks: Georgetown 4-4, Villanova 3-3
Layups/Tips: Georgetown 9-14, Villanova 13-24
Jumpers: Georgetown 4-11, Villanova 7-14

Fast break pts (% FG pts): Georgetown 11 (17.2), Villanova 10 (13.7)
Pts (eff.) after steal: Georgetown 8 (160.0), Villanova 16 (177.8)
Seconds per poss: Georgetown 15.4, Villanova 13.4



---------

Stats pages will be updated tomorrow.

3 comments:

  1. Yes, the FTA/FGA stat caught my eye too. An interesting coincidence that one of the refs on that crew also ref'ed Villanova's other loss. And he was also in the crew that gave Coach Wright his only other T this season.

    Hoya 3 point shooting was phenomenal. A very sizable edge that Villanova could not overcome. Note the change in gameplan for the second half, as Villanova took 21 attempts from beyond the arc, an unusually high number for Villanova, and dictated largely by the margin Georgetown into the locker room at the half.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Sorry greyCat, but those fouls (and technical) had nothing to do with who was reffing, so long as it was an experienced crew. The technical was clearly done intentionally by Wright to try to wake up his team and intimidate the officials.

    At the half, the fouls were 14-10 Nova-G'town [I believe the official scorer incorrectly recorded a foul on Reynolds at 7:50] - only a 4 foul differential. The second half split (23-10) was due to a desperate team trying to leverage an asset to get back in the game. All of the called fouls (and there were probably another 37 Villanova fouls that were ignored) were simply Wright's game plan - make the game a hack-fest and get into the Hoya bench.

    It worked in that Chris Wright was rendered ineffective in the second half and the Hoyas became increasingly passive on offense for a good chunk of the half. It didn't work in that the Hoyas, especially Vaughn and Monroe, made their free throws.

    Of course, it should also be said that Jason Clark is not likely to make his first 6 3FGAs again anytime soon.

    Cheers!

    ReplyDelete
  3. No need to apologize Brian. My observation about Mike Stephens was simply an observation and nothing more. Stephens has worked 5 Villanova games this season, more than usual for him (an observation, not an accusation) and more than most refs who do Villanova games.

    For the past 3-4 seasons Villanova's defensive profile featured a favorable turnover rate (high for opponent, low for Villanova), combined with strong defensive rebounding and, frankly, poor shot defense on the perimeter. Jon Wallace dismantled Villanova from beyond the arc the last time he played against the Wildcats (BET, 2008), hitting 5 of 6 3 point attempts. This season Villanova's defensive profile has changed. While the team continues to rebound well (a surprise given the graduation of Anderson, Cunningham and Clark), their shot defense improved substantially. The defensive turnover rate is down, but fouling is up, substantially. For many games that has not been a problem since Villanova's offense creates contact as a byproduct of isolation plays, pick-n-rolls and screens that provide the guards opportunities to get into the lane. The Wildcats are fine with contact, something that definitely bothers other teams, particularly those who generate their offense from the perimenter. Historically the Wildcats have enjoyed a shooting opportunity advantage at the free throw line. This season, that offensive advantage has been neutralized by fouling on defense, and yesterday I saw the worst of both defenses -- ineffective perimeter defense coupled with a high number of fouls.

    Different referee styles are part of the game, much like opponent's different playing styles. Teams have to observe and adjust. Villanova did not, and that's part of the game. Good luck the rest of the season.

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