Recap: St. John's 61, Georgetown 58

The Georgetown defense wasn't able to get a stop on three consecutive critical possessions late in the game, and the Hoyas lost to St. John's tonight, 61-58.

In a game where none of the "Big 3" guards was able to make a net positive contribution on the court, Hollis Thompson scored 16 points and grabbed 7 rebounds to keep the Hoyas in the game.  Nate Lubick scored 5 efficient points at the free throw line, gathered 4 rebounds and had 3 assists to help out.

Let's run the numbers:

TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Visitor                         Home      
.            Georgetown                      ST. JOHN'S         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            26        28        54

Effic.        101.6     113.2     107.6       125.0     102.6     113.2  
 
eFG%           52.5      46.0      48.9        50.0      39.6      44.8  
TO%            35.2      17.7      26.0         7.8       7.1       7.4  
OR%            45.5      50.0      48.1        33.3      30.0      31.2  
FTA/FGA        25.0      48.0      37.8        33.3      62.5      47.9  
 
Assist Rate    77.8      36.4      55.0        63.6      55.6      60.0  
Block Rate      5.9      15.8      11.1        18.2       5.9      10.7  
Steal Rate      7.8       3.5       5.6        15.6       7.1      11.1  
 
2FG%           54.5      58.8      57.1        52.9      42.1      47.2  
3FG%           33.3      12.5      23.5        28.6      20.0      25.0  
FT%           100.0      75.0      82.4       100.0      66.7      78.3

While the easy story of the game is the disappointing night for Messrs. Freeman, Wright and Clark, the tempo-free box score lays clear that - in spite of the lousy shooting - the single biggest difference in the game was turnovers.

Georgetown managed a -10 [14-4] turnover margin in tonight's game.  In a 53 possession game, that means that the Hoyas would need to score more than +0.25 points per effective* possession more than their opponent.  They managed to be only +0.24 in those possessions, and that was the ballgame.
*effective possession = possession with a scoring attempt

During one stretch in the Lit-off half, Georgetown committed 6 turnovers on 7 possessions, and watched a one point deficit balloon to nine.

An aside:
The Hoyas have played in four games this season where the game came down to a final possession:

• at ODU:  the Monarchs were down 3 points with 6 seconds to go, but were unable to get a shot off.
• at Missouri:  the Hoyas were down 3 with 14 seconds to go, and Chris Wright hit a game-tying 3 to send the game to overtime, where Georgetown pulled it out.
• at Temple:  the Hoyas were down 2 with 15 seconds to go, and Hollis Thompson missed on a layup attempt to tie the game.
• at St. John's:  the Hoyas were down 1 with 8 seconds to go, and Austin Freeman had his jumpshot attempt blocked.

In each of these games, the Hoyas came in as mild favorites [52-56% chance of winning, per KenPom.com].  Here's the expected distribution of wins, using Ken's odds:

• About 9% of the time, Georgetown would go 4-0 and sit at 14-1 on the season, firmly entrenched in the top 10.
• About 4.5% of the time, Georgetown would go 0-4 and sit at 10-5 on the season, hoping to make the "other's receiving votes" list.
• Instead, Georgetown has now gone 2-2 (the most likely outcome), and will need to win vs. West Virginia on Saturday to remain in the top 25.

As a fan, watching a loss like this against a team that we perceive as inferior can be frustrating.  But in truth, this was a pick 'em game, one that didn't go the Hoyas way.

INDIVIDUAL NET POINTS STATS

Georgetown            Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
Thompson, Hollis       36   22.5  141.4   11.4      35    86.8    6.1      +4.9  
Vaughn, Julian         35   23.7   81.0    6.7      32    95.8    6.1      -0.3  
Wright, Chris          49   11.3  145.7    8.1      49   118.3   11.6      -1.0  
Freeman, Austin        47   23.9   54.0    6.1      46   111.5   10.3      -5.3  
Clark, Jason           40   16.5  125.8    8.3      41   115.1    9.4      -0.2  
Sanford, Vee            5   20.0  200.0    2.0       5   120.0    1.2      +0.8  
Sims, Henry            18   34.3   88.2    5.4      21   118.2    5.0      -0.7  
Benimon, Jerrelle       4    0.0    -      0.0       3   200.0    1.2      -1.2  
Lubick, Nate           31   12.2  181.6    6.9      33   101.7    6.7      +1.6  
TOTALS                 53         108.3   54.9      53   108.6   57.6      -1.4  

ST. JOHN'S            Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
POLEE II, Dwayne       27    2.3  200.0    1.2      27   114.0    6.2      -2.2  
BROWNLEE, Justin       53   25.7  118.9   16.2      53   106.8   11.3      +3.3  
COKER, Dele             5   22.2  200.0    2.2       5   120.0    1.2      +1.0  
KENNEDY, D.J           53   15.6   88.6    7.3      53    94.1   10.0      -1.6  
HARDY, Dwight          53   23.9  134.6   17.0      53   112.1   11.9      +4.0  
EVANS, Sean            11   21.3   33.2    0.8       9   116.0    2.1      -1.6  
HORNE, Paris           36   17.1  119.0    7.3      36   110.8    8.0      -0.1  
BURRELL, Justin        27   28.2   95.9    7.3      29    91.2    5.3      +1.2  
TOTALS                 53         113.4   59.4      53   105.4   55.9      +3.9

This was Austin Freeman's worst shooting game since a 65-60 loss at Seton Hall back in January 2009.  The multiple turnovers and poor defense didn't help.

In spite of poor shooting nights, Chris Wright and Jason Clark managed to contribute in other ways on offense in relatively light usage (Wright with assists, Clark with rebounds and some late FTs), but both guards also struggled defensively.

The two best defenders on the court tonight for Georgetown were Hollis Thompson and Julian Vaughn.  While Thompson did all he could on offense, Vaughn had too many turnovers and not enough offensive rebounds to help the cause.

Nate Lubick had his best effort since the Loyola game.

As conference play moves along, it appears that Coach Thompson is tightening his rotation, with Markel Starks not seeing the floor and neither Vee Sanford nor Jerrelle Benimon getting more than five possessions played tonight.  I only disagree with one of those players not getting more game time.

HD BOX SCORE

Georgetown vs ST. JOHN'S
01/03/11 7:00 pm at Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Final score: ST. JOHN'S 61, Georgetown 58

Georgetown              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
Thompson, Hollis       27:04  + 5  16/40  4- 6  2- 4  2- 3 10/34  0/ 8  1/35  0/36  0/21  2/22  5/24   2
Vaughn, Julian         25:53  + 7   8/40  3- 5  0- 0  2- 2  5/33  1/11  0/32  3/35  3/24  1/21  4/22   4
Wright, Chris          37:21  + 1   7/56  2- 2  1- 7  0- 0  9/42  4/16  0/49  2/49  0/35  1/25  0/30   2
Freeman, Austin        35:55  - 2   6/49  1- 5  1- 5  1- 1 10/40  2/15  0/46  4/47  0/34  1/25  3/26   0
Clark, Jason           29:44  - 6   7/47  2- 5  0- 1  3- 3  6/36  1/15  1/41  1/40  0/29  2/20  5/23   4
Sanford, Vee           03:10  - 2   2/ 4  1- 1  0- 0  0- 0  1/ 2  0/ 0  0/ 5  0/ 5  0/ 2  0/ 1  0/ 2   1
Sims, Henry            14:03  -10   7/18  3- 3  0- 0  1- 2  3/12  0/ 3  1/21  3/18  1/12  2/ 6  1/10   3
Benimon, Jerrelle      03:03  - 6   0/ 0  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 4  0/ 0  0/ 3  0/ 4  0/ 2  0/ 4  0/ 0   1
Lubick, Nate           23:47  - 2   5/36  0- 1  0- 0  5- 6  1/22  3/12  0/33  0/31  0/21  1/11  3/23   3
TOTALS                 40:00       58    16-28  4-17 14-17    45 11/20  3/53 14/53  4/36 13/27 22/32  20
.                                        0.571 0.235 0.824       0.550 0.057 0.264 0.111 0.481 0.688    

ST. JOHN'S              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
POLEE II, Dwayne       21:15  + 8   2/36  1- 1  0- 1  0- 0  2/27  0/11  0/27  0/27  1/10  0/16  0/11   0
BROWNLEE, Justin       40:00  + 3  15/61  4-10  1- 3  4- 6 13/48  6/15  0/53  1/53  1/28  2/32  5/27   1
COKER, Dele            04:46  + 2   2/ 8  1- 1  0- 0  0- 0  1/ 5  0/ 2  0/ 5  0/ 5  0/ 1  1/ 2  0/ 2   1
KENNEDY, D.J           40:00  + 3   7/61  2- 6  1- 3  0- 0  9/48  3/17  3/53  0/53  0/28  1/32  3/27   1
HARDY, Dwight          40:00  + 3  20/61  5- 7  0- 3 10-10 10/48  2/15  1/53  2/53  1/28  0/32  0/27   4
EVANS, Sean            08:06  - 3   0/ 9  0- 1  0- 0  0- 1  1/11  0/ 3  1/ 9  0/11  0/ 4  1/ 9  0/ 1   1
HORNE, Paris           25:21  + 0   7/40  1- 4  1- 2  2- 4  6/30  1/11  0/36  0/36  0/24  2/22  1/21   3
BURRELL, Justin        20:32  - 1   8/29  3- 6  0- 0  2- 2  6/23  0/ 6  1/29  1/27  0/17  2/15  2/19   5
TOTALS                 40:00       61    17-36  3-12 18-23    48 12/20  6/53  4/53  3/28 10/32 14/27  16
.                                        0.472 0.250 0.783       0.600 0.113 0.075 0.107 0.312 0.519    

Efficiency: ST. JOHN'S 1.151, Georgetown 1.094
eFG%: ST. JOHN'S 0.448, Georgetown 0.489
Substitutions: ST. JOHN'S 13, Georgetown 25

2-pt Shot Selection:
Dunks: ST. JOHN'S 3-3, Georgetown 1-1
Layups/Tips: ST. JOHN'S 10-21, Georgetown 11-17
Jumpers: ST. JOHN'S 4-12, Georgetown 4-10

Fast break pts (% FG pts): ST. JOHN'S 10 (23.3), Georgetown 4 (9.1)
Pts (eff.) after steal: ST. JOHN'S 9 (150.0), Georgetown 6 (200.0)
Seconds per poss: ST. JOHN'S 23.5, Georgetown 21.8

Stats pages will update later this week.