Saturday, January 29, 2011

Recap: Georgetown 69, Villanova 66

Yeah, he made it.
(image from here)
Whew!  Georgetown went up to the Wachovia Center today, and came away with a three-point win against the Villanova Wildcats, 69-66.

And when I say Georgetown, I really mean Austin Freeman and his friends, as Mr. Freeman's 30 points carried the Hoyas to victory today.  Austin helped Georgetown survive a late run by Villanova - where the home team closed an eight-point deficit to only one three times in the last 3:00 of the game - by scoring 10 of the last 12 points for the Hoyas, and getting the assist on the other two.  Another big plus for Georgetown was that the Hoyas only missed one free throw all game, thanks mainly to Freeman [8/8] and Julian Vaughn [7/7].

The defensive strategy was the same today as the previous game against St. John's: force the opponent to settle for jumpshots, and the Wildcats obliged. Villanova ended up shooting a combined 12-39 on all jumpers [7/26 2FG, 5/13 3FG], and much like last time, that was the biggest story of the game.  Of course, the Wildcats are a somewhat better shooting team then the Johnnies and were playing at home, and their ability to find their range from behind the arc in the second half nearly brought them all the way back.

The play-by-play for the game is severely hosed right now - Villanova's substitution stats are consistently the worst in the Big East - so you'll only get a tempo-free box score for nowI've now mostly corrected the subs for Georgetown. 


Let's run the numbers:

TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Visitor                         Home      
.            Georgetown                      Villanova         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            30        34        63

Points          32        37        69          26        40        66   

Effic.        107.5     110.3     109.4        87.4     119.2     104.6  
 
eFG%           57.7      57.5      57.6        37.0      53.7      45.4  
TO%            16.8      26.8      22.2        10.1      17.9      14.3  
OR%            23.1      33.3      27.3        16.7      40.0      28.9  
FTA/FGA         7.7      75.0      37.0        29.6      59.3      44.4  
 
Assist Rate    76.9      81.8      79.2        40.0      66.7      54.5  
Block Rate     20.8       5.9      14.6        11.8      11.8      11.8  
Steal Rate      3.4       8.9       6.3         3.4      11.9       7.9  
 
2FG%           52.9      58.8      55.9        41.7      41.2      41.5  
3FG%           44.4      33.3      41.7         0.0      50.0      38.5  
FT%           100.0      93.3      94.1        75.0      68.8      70.8


The statement I often lead with after big games is whether the offense or the defense was the big difference in the game.  Today, it was both:  coming into the game, KenPom figured the Hoyas would score about 1.03 ppp and allow 1.12.  Instead it was about the reverse, with Georgetown's defense looking a touch better at the end of the game, thanks to the great Lift-off half.

Now you might be tempted to look at the stats above and say, "Well, if Villanova just hit a few 3FGs in the first half, it'd be a completely different story."  That's true.

But keep in mind that by the end of the game, the Wildcats had shot 3FGs above their season average (35%), and that includes the two wild shots as the clock ran out.  Villanova missed a couple more FTs in the second half than they would have liked, but the real defensive story of the game was the Hoyas 2FG defense.  The Wildcats had shot over 49% on 2FG this season - over 45% in conference - but couldn't get past the 42% line today, thanks to a combination of Hoya blocks in the first half, and a general over-reliance on jumpshots throughout.

The offensive story of the game was Austin Freeman, and Julian Vaughn's touch at the free throw line.  Holding the turnover bugaboo in check for the first half was a great help - no Hoya committed more than one - but you knew it wouldn't last.  Georgetown ended more than a quarter of their possessions in the Vesper half with a giveaway, including consecutive terrible passes by Jason Clark and Chris Wright than did as much as anything to allow Villanova back into the game late.

But they continued to take smart shots, and make enough of them.  Georgetown took only eight jumpshots total in the second half, and 12 attempts as dunks, layups or tips.  Meanwhile, Villanova continued to settle, taking 20 of 27 field goals as jumpers - it just so happened that five of their seven made jumpshot were from behind the arc.


An aside:
Today's game is a good example of why raw rebounding stats really aren't all that useful.  If you look at the box score, you'll see that Villanova grabbed 11 offensive rebounds to Georgetown's 6.  Big advantage for the Wildcats?  Not really, because they missed a ton more shots:  Villanova grabbed those 11 offensive rebounds on 38 opportunites, while Georgetown managed to get their 6 off. boards on only 22 opportunities.  

The end result is nearly a wash:  Nova 29%, G'town 27%.

INDIVIDUAL NET POINTS STATS

Georgetown            Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
VAUGHN, Julian         37   29.6   81.5    8.9      40   118.6    9.5      -2.3  
LUBICK, Nate           48    6.5  206.5    6.5      50   116.7   11.7      -1.2  
WRIGHT, Chris          47   14.6   61.3    4.2      47    97.9    9.2      -3.8  
FREEMAN, Austin        60   33.2  139.2   27.8      61   114.3   14.0      +9.4  
CLARK, Jason           45   19.6   78.6    6.9      45   109.9    9.9      -2.9  
THOMPSON, Hollis       27    9.9  131.4    3.5      27    77.4    4.2      +0.4  
STARKS, Markel          7   45.8   75.1    2.4       8    71.7    1.1      +0.7  
SANFORD, Vee            4    6.2  300.0    0.8       3   146.0    0.9      +0.1  
SIMS, Henry            24   13.7  113.1    3.7      23    67.9    3.1      +1.0  
BENIMON, Jerrelle      11    0.0    -      0.0      11    22.2    0.5      -0.5  
TOTALS                 62         109.4   64.7      63   101.4   63.9      +2.9  

Villanova             Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
Pena, Antonio          57   12.8   91.6    6.7      55    97.8   10.8      -2.3  
Yarou, Mouphtaou       38   20.2  109.8    8.4      39   116.3    9.1      -0.6  
Fisher, Corey          61   20.5  128.2   16.0      60   102.7   12.3      +3.4  
Cheek, Dominic         43   16.7   89.1    6.4      42    95.2    8.0      -1.0  
Stokes, Corey          47   22.6   86.8    9.2      46   118.4   10.9      -2.5  
Wayns, Maalik          40   30.0  107.9   12.9      40   113.4    9.1      +1.6  
Sutton, Maurice         8   41.9   24.4    0.8       8   112.5    1.8      -2.0  
Armwood, Isaiah        21    4.8    0.0    0.0      20   134.8    5.4      -3.4  
TOTALS                 63          98.2   60.5      62   108.6   67.3      -6.7

Beyond noting that today was one of those games where Austin Freeman decided the Hoyas weren't going to lose, there's not much to add to the individual stats.

The other four starters weren't able to provide much help today:  for every time Julian Vaughn rimmed in another free throw, he was offsetting it by committing another turnover.  Nate Lubick is still struggling to produce enough offense to make his time on the court a positive - he's efficient as hell, but he's just aggressive enough to be a real threat.

Jason Clark and Chris Wright both had forgettable games.  In fact, this is the worst game Chris Wright has played in a Georgetown win since at Louisville last season.  That was the last pre-diabetes diagnosis game, when Freeman went berserk in the second half to pull out a win.  And that's what it will take the rest of the season, as well, if the other two-thirds of the Hoyas' Big Three don't do their share.

The bench, on the other hand, was generally a positive across the board.  For the second straight game, Hollis Thompson didn't break the 20-minute mark coming off the bench, but his attitude has been fine - he just needs to be ready to shoot a bit more when he does come in.  Henry Sims, though, was the bench star today, as he actually played nearly twice as much as Vaughn in the first half and did more than hold his own.


Villanova represents the best opponent Georgetown has beaten this season - in fact, their two biggest wins (today and at Missouri) were road games.  The Hoyas get another quality opponent in just two days, as the Louisville Cardinals pay a visit to the Verizon Center.

I think we'll find out then if these last two games represent a return to early-season form.

---------

Stats pages will be updated tomorrow.


HD BOX SCORE

Georgetown vs Villanova
01/29/11 12:00 PM at The Pavilion (Villanova, Pa.)
Final score: Georgetown 69, Villanova 66

Georgetown              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
VAUGHN, Julian         22:50  - 8   9/40  1- 3  0- 0  7- 7  3/23  1/12  1/40  5/37  1/20  0/10  3/16   3
LUBICK, Nate           31:11  - 6   8/55  4- 4  0- 0  0- 0  4/35  3/16  1/50  0/48  1/35  0/15  2/29   2
WRIGHT, Chris          28:11  + 1   0/54  0- 3  0- 0  0- 0  3/34  6/18  2/47  4/47  0/26  0/16  4/25   4
FREEMAN, Austin        38:12  + 1  30/67  8-15  2- 4  8- 8 19/45  6/13  0/61  1/60  1/40  1/22  3/37   2
CLARK, Jason           28:04  - 1  10/49  2- 4  2- 4  0- 0  8/30  1/12  0/45  2/45  0/24  0/14  4/21   4
THOMPSON, Hollis       19:00  + 9   2/28  1- 1  0- 1  0- 0  2/23  1/ 9  0/27  0/27  1/21  2/13  1/19   0
STARKS, Markel         05:32  + 2   2/ 8  1- 1  0- 2  0- 0  3/ 6  1/ 3  0/ 8  1/ 7  0/ 7  0/ 2  1/ 7   1
SANFORD, Vee           02:32  - 1   3/ 5  0- 0  1- 1  0- 0  1/ 4  0/ 1  0/ 3  0/ 4  0/ 5  0/ 2  0/ 4   3
SIMS, Henry            16:56  +10   5/28  2- 3  0- 0  1- 2  3/23  0/ 9  0/23  0/24  1/21  0/12  5/20   2
BENIMON, Jerrelle      07:32  + 8   0/11  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 7  0/ 3  0/11  0/11  1/ 6  0/ 4  2/12   0
TOTALS                 40:00       69    19-34  5-12 16-17    46 19/24  4/63 14/62  6/41  6/22 27/38  21
.                                        0.559 0.417 0.941       0.792 0.063 0.226 0.146 0.273 0.711    

Villanova               Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
Pena, Antonio          36:21  + 3  10/63  5- 9  0- 1  0- 0 10/49  1/16  2/55  2/57  1/29  0/34  5/19   1
Yarou, Mouphtaou       26:30  - 8   7/37  2- 4  0- 0  3- 5  4/32  0/12  0/39  1/38  2/23  3/22  5/17   4
Fisher, Corey          37:00  - 5  15/61  4- 9  1- 1  4- 6 10/51  4/16  2/60  2/61  0/33  2/36  2/19   1
Cheek, Dominic         26:05  - 1   6/41  1- 4  0- 3  4- 5  7/37  1/12  1/42  1/43  0/22  1/26  1/13   4
Stokes, Corey          28:56  -10  13/44  1- 4  3- 6  2- 2 10/37  1/ 9  0/46  1/47  0/25  0/26  1/15   3
Wayns, Maalik          27:15  +13  15/57  4- 8  1- 2  4- 5 10/37  4/14  0/40  1/40  0/24  0/24  0/16   2
Sutton, Maurice        04:17  - 1   0/ 8  0- 1  0- 0  0- 1  1/ 6  1/ 3  0/ 8  1/ 8  0/ 3  0/ 5  0/ 2   1
Armwood, Isaiah        13:36  - 6   0/19  0- 2  0- 0  0- 0  2/21  0/ 6  0/20  0/21  1/11  0/17  0/ 9   1
TOTALS                 40:00       66    17-41  5-13 17-24    54 12/22  5/62  9/63  4/34 11/38 16/22  17
.                                        0.415 0.385 0.708       0.545 0.081 0.143 0.118 0.289 0.727    

Efficiency: Georgetown 1.113, Villanova 1.048
eFG%: Georgetown 0.576, Villanova 0.454
Substitutions: Georgetown 23, Villanova 30

2-pt Shot Selection:
Dunks: Georgetown 1-1, Villanova 0-0
Layups/Tips: Georgetown 14-22, Villanova 10-15
Jumpers: Georgetown 4-11, Villanova 7-26

Fast break pts (% FG pts): Georgetown 13 (24.5), Villanova 2 (4.1)
Pts (eff.) after steal: Georgetown 2 (50.0), Villanova 10 (200.0)
Seconds per poss: Georgetown 17.6, Villanova 21.0



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