Monday, December 27, 2010

BE Game of the Night: UConn at Pitt

The Big East season kicked off tonight on ESPN2 with UConn playing at Pitt.  Since I actually got a chance to watch most of the game, and since the play-by-play data was clean, I decided to run the game through my stats parser.

A few thoughts after running the numbers:
  • Pitt won the game going away, 78-63, with ~66 possessions played.  Hats off to Ken Pomeroy, who wasn't very far off with his prediction (76-66 in 66 possessions).
  • For UConn, the narrative coming into the game was whether they were worthy of the #4 ranking, or if their reputation was a bit inflated by Kemba Walker's hot outside shooting touch.  The answer appears to be the latter, as Walker struggled from outside tonight [3/11 3FG] while using fully 40% (!) of his team's possessions while he was on the court.
  • A bit more on Walker:  it's easy to rip a guy who scores 31 points on 27 shots and only has 2 assists, but you need to consider the context.  Here is his shooting line for the game, compared to his teammates while he was on the floor:
    .               Pts  2PM-A  3PM-A  FTM-A   eFG%   TS%
    Walker           31   7-16   3-11   8-11    43    48
    Rest of team     27   6-18   1- 7  12-15    30    42
    The fact is that Kemba is actually a rational actor here - he's generally better off shooting than passing, at least for tonight.
  •  If Walker is going to pass, his best options usually are Oriakhi, Lamb and Smith.  Tonight, Oriakhi was plagued with fouls (and lousy defense) and couldn't stay on the floor while Roscoe Smith couldn't make a shot (much to the schadenfreude-licious delight of Hoya nation).  Jeremy Lamb was about the only Husky that you could point to and say "Kemba should have passed him the ball more."
  • Pittsburgh, meanwhile, looks as good as advertised.  What I was really impressed with tonight was how well they shared the ball.  The top six players in possessions played (5 starters plus Woodall) all used between 20 and 25% of available possessions, and only Gilbert Brown had much of an off night on offense.
  • The Panthers won in spite of being out-rebounded by the Huskies, and only gathering (gasp) 41% of their own missed shots. Only Texas was previously able to pull off that trick against Pitt this season, and the rebounding margin [40.7% - 47.6% = -6.9%] was much worse tonight.  Pitt countered by making their shots, and once they stopped turning the ball over in the 2nd half their #1 ranked offense got rolling.
  • I realize he doesn't shoot much, but why doesn't Dante Taylor get more burn?
All the gory stats products after the jump


TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Visitor                         Home      
.            Connecticut                     PITT          
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            34        32        67

Effic.         81.6     108.3      94.3       107.8     126.9     116.7  
 
eFG%           33.3      38.9      35.8        60.5      55.2      57.3  
TO%            26.2      18.6      22.4        29.1      15.5      22.4  
OR%            50.0      45.0      47.6        33.3      46.7      40.7  
FTA/FGA        21.2      70.4      43.3       105.3      34.5      62.5  
 
Assist Rate    30.0      33.3      31.6        63.6      85.7      76.0  
Block Rate     18.8      19.0      18.9         4.2      26.7      12.8  
Steal Rate     11.7      12.4      12.0         8.7       9.3       9.0  
 
2FG%           33.3      40.0      35.9        62.5      47.6      54.1  
3FG%           22.2      25.0      23.8        33.3      50.0      45.5  
FT%            85.7      73.7      76.9        70.0      90.0      76.7


INDIVIDUAL NET POINTS STATS

Connecticut           Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
SMITH, Roscoe          28   19.7   59.1    3.3      28    97.2    5.4      -2.1  
ORIAKHI, Alex          32   17.2  128.3    7.1      32   141.0    9.0      -1.3  
OKWANDU, Charles       40   10.4  104.0    4.3      42   102.1    8.6      -2.1  
LAMB, Jeremy           50   16.8  120.1   10.1      50   114.6   11.5      -0.4  
WALKER, Kemba          58   40.3  109.0   25.5      59   107.0   12.6      +6.7  
WOLF, Enosch            4   29.2   28.6    0.3       4   110.0    0.9      -0.7  
BEVERLY, Donnell        8   25.0    0.0    0.0       7   117.1    1.6      -2.0  
COOMBS-McDANIEL, J     15    6.7    0.0    0.0      16    95.5    3.1      -2.0  
GIFFEY, Niels          16   18.8    0.0    0.0      14   137.8    3.9      -4.0  
OLANDER, Tyler         35    9.3   76.3    2.5      30   131.6    7.9      -3.6  
NAPIER, Shabazz        44   15.1   89.3    5.9      43   114.0    9.8      -2.8  
TOTALS                 66          92.1   59.0      65   114.2   74.2     -14.8  

PITT                  Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
Brown, Gilbert         44   21.3   97.6    9.2      42    97.1    8.2      +0.5  
Robinson, Nasir        53   21.6  107.0   12.2      54    81.8    8.8      +3.1  
McGhee, Gary           37   21.5  137.6   10.9      36    89.6    6.4      +4.2  
Gibbs, Ashton          55   24.0  139.6   18.4      53    94.9   10.1      +7.1  
Wanamaker, Brad        53   21.2  110.5   12.4      53    93.1    9.9      +2.3  
Woodall, Travon        31   24.9  107.2    8.3      35    99.6    7.0      +0.9  
Taylor, Dante          27    5.0  133.3    1.8      29    75.7    4.4      -0.9  
Zanna, Talib            9   13.5   53.3    0.6       9    60.0    1.1      -0.3  
Moore, J.J             16   12.1  145.7    2.8      19    91.8    3.5      +0.2  
TOTALS                 65         117.3   76.8      66    89.8   59.3     +17.8


HD BOX SCORE

Connecticut vs PITT
12/27/10 8:30 PM at Petersen Events Center, Pittsburgh, PA
Final score: PITT 78, Connecticut 63

Connecticut             Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
SMITH, Roscoe          17:21  - 3   2/27  0- 4  0- 1  2- 2  5/29  1/ 8  0/28  2/28  0/19  2/21  6/15   5
ORIAKHI, Alex          19:07  -17   8/28  1- 4  0- 0  6- 7  4/29  0/ 8  0/32  1/32  3/23  1/21  0/15   3
OKWANDU, Charles       24:17  - 5   4/40  2- 4  0- 0  0- 0  4/38  0/11  0/42  1/40  4/20  2/25  2/15   5
LAMB, Jeremy           28:49  -15   9/48  3- 7  0- 1  3- 4  8/46  1/12  2/50  1/50  0/29  4/32  4/21   2
WALKER, Kemba          36:04  -15  31/58  7-16  3-11  8-11 27/52  2/ 7  5/59  3/58  0/35  2/36  2/24   2
WOLF, Enosch           01:51  - 2   0/ 2  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 3  0/ 0  0/ 4  1/ 4  0/ 3  1/ 3  0/ 1   0
BEVERLY, Donnell       04:17  - 3   0/ 7  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 3  0/ 1  1/ 7  2/ 8  0/ 4  0/ 3  0/ 2   1
COOMBS-McDANIEL, J     10:17  + 1   0/15  0- 0  0- 1  0- 0  1/17  0/ 6  0/16  0/15  0/ 6  0/10  0/ 5   0
GIFFEY, Niels          08:53  - 6   0/13  0- 0  0- 1  0- 0  1/14  0/ 5  0/14  2/16  0/ 7  0/ 9  0/ 5   2
OLANDER, Tyler         21:19  - 7   2/33  1- 2  0- 0  0- 0  2/25  0/ 6  0/30  1/35  0/16  2/20  1/15   3
NAPIER, Shabazz        27:45  - 3   7/44  0- 2  2- 6  1- 2  8/44  2/12  0/43  0/44  0/23  1/30  1/22   3
TOTALS                 40:00       63    14-39  5-21 20-26    60  6/19  8/65 15/66  7/37 20/42 16/27  26
.                                        0.359 0.238 0.769       0.316 0.123 0.227 0.189 0.476 0.593    

PITT                    Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
Brown, Gilbert         26:09  +18   6/58  2- 6  0- 2  2- 2  8/39  4/18  1/42  2/44  0/25  2/22  0/26   4
Robinson, Nasir        31:12  +13  11/65  4- 8  0- 0  3- 6  8/37  4/18  1/54  2/53  1/32  2/20  8/35   3
McGhee, Gary           21:13  + 5  11/42  5- 6  0- 0  1- 3  6/28  1/11  0/36  2/37  3/26  4/16  7/24   2
Gibbs, Ashton          31:42  +24  21/71  3- 7  3- 6  6- 6 13/44  7/19  0/53  1/55  0/31  0/22  1/34   2
Wanamaker, Brad        32:01  +13  14/64  4- 7  1- 1  3- 4  8/36  1/15  2/53  3/53  0/31  2/21  0/32   3
Woodall, Travon        20:45  - 3   9/32  1- 2  1- 2  4- 4  4/21  2/ 6  1/35  3/31  0/18  0/14  0/22   3
Taylor, Dante          18:41  +10   3/36  1- 1  0- 0  1- 2  1/19  0/ 8  1/29  0/27  1/13  0/12  3/18   0
Zanna, Talib           06:28  - 1   0/ 6  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 9  0/ 2  0/ 9  1/ 9  0/ 6  1/ 7  1/ 6   2
Moore, J.J             11:49  - 4   3/16  0- 0  0- 0  3- 3  0/ 7  0/ 3  0/19  1/16  0/13  0/ 6  1/13   4
TOTALS                 40:00       78    20-37  5-11 23-30    48 19/25  6/66 15/65  5/39 11/27 22/42  23
.                                        0.541 0.455 0.767       0.760 0.091 0.231 0.128 0.407 0.524    

Efficiency: PITT 1.200, Connecticut 0.955
eFG%: PITT 0.573, Connecticut 0.358
Substitutions: PITT 33, Connecticut 42

2-pt Shot Selection:
Dunks: PITT 2-2, Connecticut 1-1
Layups/Tips: PITT 10-20, Connecticut 5-17
Jumpers: PITT 8-15, Connecticut 8-21

Fast break pts (% FG pts): PITT 8 (14.5), Connecticut 6 (14.0)
Pts (eff.) after steal: PITT 7 (116.7), Connecticut 9 (112.5)
Seconds per poss: PITT 18.0, Connecticut 19.0

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