Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Recap: Cincinnati 58, Georgetown 46

Not even Lorry Michel can make it better.  Picture from here.
The Georgetown Hoyas came out tonight and looked like they'd never seen a 2-3 zone defense in their lives.  The result was a sad, sad offensive performance in a humbling 12 point loss to the Cincinnati Bearcats, 58-46.

Georgetown trailed for a significant portion of the Lift-Off half, falling behind as much as 19-8 at the midpoint, but capped an 8 possession 18-5 run with an Austin Freeman tip-in to take a 26-24 lead with 90 seconds left in the half.  Over the next 15 possessions spanning halftime, the Hoyas managed to score only 3 points while allowing 19 to the Bearcats; Cincinnati led 43-29, and the game was effectively over.

The Hoyas came into the game 9-1 in their last 10 games, and walked off the floor with the very real possibility of ending the season on a three game slide.  The last two games for Georgetown are hosting the Syracuse Orange - the quintessential 2-3 defenders - and then out to Cincinnati for a rematch with their masters of tonight.

In addition to losing tonight's game, Georgetown also lost their best player over the past 5 games, Chris Wright, with an apparent left wrist injury.  Wright tried to play after the injury in a combination of grit and foolishness, as it was obvious as soon as he walked back on the court that he couldn't use his left hand at all.  With the matchup against the Orange only 3 1/2 days away, it is unclear if Wright will be able to play on Saturday.

Edited to add:  Tarik El-Bashir reports a broken hand for WrightWorst news possible.


Let's run the numbers:

TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Home                            Visitor   
.            Georgetown                      Cincinnati         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            28        30        58
 
Points          26        20        46          26        32        58   

Effic.         94.0      67.0      79.5        94.0     107.2     100.2  
 
eFG%           38.0      21.7      30.2        44.8      54.8      49.0  
TO%            21.7      23.4      22.5        28.9      20.1      24.2  
OR%            41.2      28.6      34.2        46.7      28.6      37.9  
FTA/FGA        32.0      52.2      41.7         0.0      61.9      26.0  

Assist Rate    62.5      75.0      66.7        54.5      40.0      47.6  
Block Rate      9.5       6.7       8.3        25.0      15.4      20.0  
Steal Rate     10.8       6.7       8.6        18.1      13.4      15.6  
 
2FG%           41.7      15.4      28.0        33.3      46.7      38.9  
3FG%           23.1      20.0      21.7        50.0      50.0      50.0  
FT%            87.5      83.3      85.0          -       69.2      69.2
It was simply a brutal shooting night for the Hoyas.  Georgetown managed only seven 2FGs in the game, and Austin Freeman had five of them [5/8 2FG].  The rest of the team shot an amazing 2/16 on 2FGs, led by Julian Vaughn's 1/9 2FG night.

The rest of the four factors on offense weren't actually terrible - sure you'd like to see the Hoyas commit a few less turnovers and grab a couple more offensive rebounds, but you could live with the numbers they put up.  Heck, on a normal shooting night, the Hoyas would probably be able to pull out a win, holding everything else constant.  But it was far from an ordinary shooting night.

Now the counting and raw stats will lead people to talk about G'town's offense performance in historic terms, but you actually only have to go back to the loss at Notre Dame to find a similar effort. If we adjust for opponent and venue, using tonight's KenPom stats:
Opponent     Exp. OE    Act. OE   adj. OE
Notre Dame    107.6      85.8      107.2
Cincinnati    101.1      79.5      107.3

Exp. OE is the expected offensive efficiency for Georgetown going into the game.
Act. OE is the actual offensive efficiency for the Hoyas in that game.
adj. OE - now featured on the BE snapshot page - is what the Hoyas' offensive was equivalent to on Ken Pomeroy's adjusted stats lists.

If you allow me to stretch back a few years, this game most reminded me of the blow-out loss the Hoyas took at Syracuse near the end of the 2007 season.  That game, the Hoyas shot an eFG% of 30.1% going into the final minute before back-to-back 3FGs (by Pat Ewing Jr. and Tay Spann) skewed the final stats.

(Looking back that far in the archives reminds me when Hoya blogging was an innocent time.  Just us and the ground-breaking Van Buren Boys were around back then, and we'd only been open for business a few weeks.)

Of course, that game was the last the Hoyas would lose before reaching the Final Four in Atlanta, and the game was so unexpected that I was able to justify simply ignoring it.

Not tonight.

In addition to losing the game, the Hoyas have lost Chris Wright, likely for the rest of the season.  Wright may be nicknamed "the Wrecking Ball" by Hoya fans for his wild drives into traffic, but he is one of two players on the team who has shown that he can carry the team on his back for long stretches or even entire games (see at USF).  In addition, Wright had suddenly found his outside shooting touch [15/30 3FG in his last 5 games before tonight], which makes Chris as hard a player to guard as there is in the Big East.  This is simply a personnel loss that the Hoyas can't recover from, not to the level they've occasionally shown themselves capable of reaching this season.

As much as I like to disparage the plus/minus stat, go ahead and take a look and Chris' net +/- this season for conference play.  Georgetown is a different - and much worse - team when Wright isn't on the court.  And he's not going to be on the court for the remainder of the season.


On a more personal note, I felt terrible for Chris Wright after the injury was announced.  If Chris wants to continue to play basketball after college, he will be headed overseas - the NBA doesn't seem a likely destination at this point.

But Chris showed last year that he could find another gear at the end of the season, as he did as much as any player to get the Hoyas to the Big East championship game - and nearly won that as well.  I had hoped to see a repeat, or even better, performance in the next few weeks as Wright closed out his college career on a high note to cement his place in the Hoya annals.

Instead, Wright will walk out to applause before the game on Saturday for Senior Day in street clothes and wearing a cast on his left hand.


INDIVIDUAL NET POINTS STATS

Georgetown            Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
Wright, Chris          32   20.1   48.0    3.1      34    96.7    6.6      -3.3  
Freeman, Austin        55   21.5  117.5   13.9      57    89.5   10.2      +3.5  
Clark, Jason           43   22.0   84.9    8.0      44    88.0    7.7      -0.0  
Vaughn, Julian         43   21.0   62.5    5.6      43    91.5    7.9      -2.4  
Lubick, Nate           34    7.7  160.1    4.2      34    97.0    6.6      -0.4  
Thompson, Hollis       30   16.5   94.3    4.7      31    91.2    5.7      -0.4  
Starks, Markel         15   20.0    0.0    0.0      14    94.8    2.7      -2.7  
Sanford, Vee           17   20.8  103.5    3.7      19    93.1    3.5      +0.2  
Sims, Henry             9   12.1   15.6    0.2       9    94.7    1.7      -1.2  
Benimon, Jerrelle       7   44.8    8.5    0.3      10   117.0    2.3      -2.7  
TOTALS                 57          79.2   43.6      59    93.0   54.9      -9.7  

Cincinnati            Off     %           Pts      Def           Pts   
Player                Poss  Poss  O.Rtg   Prod     Poss  D.Rtg  Allow    Net Pts
WRIGHT, Cashmere       47   15.8   95.1    7.0      43    60.1    5.2      +2.2  
DAVIS, Larry           17   14.7   49.7    1.2      16    85.7    2.7      -1.2  
WILKS, Darnell         11    0.0    -      0.0      11   127.4    2.8      -2.8  
BISHOP, Rashad         44   14.3  107.0    6.7      44    85.0    7.5      +0.3  
THOMAS, Ibrahima        5   40.0    0.0    0.0       5    78.0    0.8      -1.2  
DIXON, Dion            43   23.3  118.6   11.9      41    69.9    5.7      +5.5  
JACKSON, Justin        46   16.6   99.0    7.6      44    66.0    5.8      +2.1  
KILPATRICK, Sean       30   17.4   10.1    0.5      31    78.1    4.8      -3.9  
McCLAIN, Anthony        5   20.0    0.0    0.0       4    70.0    0.6      -0.6  
GATES, Yancy           47   30.2  122.8   17.4      46    81.7    7.5      +7.9  
TOTALS                 59          93.2   52.4      57    76.2   43.4      +9.3

Not much else to say down here.

Austin Freeman was phenomenal in the first half leading the Hoyas out of an 11-point hole that they had dug for themselves; but he looked gassed by halftime and didn't attempt to score again until 7:30 remained in the game.  To be fair to Austin, in the Vesper half it was clear that the Bearcats were not going to let him beat them, with frequent double-teams once he caught the ball.

Chris Wright likely ended his Hoya career on a sour note, as he struggled to hit shots from behind the arc.

The other starters and Hollis Thompson were roughly neutral in the game.  Thompson, Vaughn and Jason Clark were strong defensively tonight but could provide little offense.  Nate Lubick was efficient offensively in light usage, but struggled with his defense.

The bench was little use tonight, outside of Vee Sanford's usual bright spot in limited minutes.


At this point, I think Coach Thompson will have to choose between starting Hollis Thompson at the "3" and counting on Austin Freeman to be the primary ball-handler against the press, or swapping in Markel Starks for Chris Wright straight up in the starting line-up.

From what we've seen so far this season, the answer should obviously be to start Thompson, especially against Syracuse with their conservative 2-3 zone.  But I don't know if any team will fail to press the Hoyas early and often with Wright now gone.


If there can be any positive to this situation, fan favorite Vee Sanford is now presented with an opportunity to show whether he has what it takes to become take a major role with the team next season.

-----------
Stats pages will update tomorrow night.


HD BOX SCORE

Cincinnati vs Georgetown
02/23/11 9:00 at Verizon Center
Final score: Cincinnati 58, Georgetown 46

Cincinnati              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
WRIGHT, Cashmere       31:01  +14   6/46  2- 5  0- 2  2- 3  7/38  2/14  3/43  2/47  0/17  1/24  4/29   1
DAVIS, Larry           14:21  + 2   0/15  0- 2  0- 0  0- 0  2/15  2/ 6  0/16  0/17  0/ 9  0/ 9  1/15   1
WILKS, Darnell         10:43  -10   0/ 6  0- 1  0- 0  0- 0  1/ 8  0/ 2  0/11  0/11  0/ 5  0/ 6  1/ 9   2
BISHOP, Rashad         28:49  - 1  12/39  0- 3  4- 4  0- 0  7/37  1/ 9  2/44  2/44  1/20  0/28  3/29   1
THOMAS, Ibrahima       03:31  - 1   0/ 2  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 4  0/ 1  0/ 5  2/ 5  0/ 1  1/ 3  0/ 3   2
DIXON, Dion            26:16  +16  17/48  2- 4  3- 4  4- 4  8/32  1/12  3/41  2/43  0/16  0/17  1/24   2
JACKSON, Justin        28:43  +20   6/48  3- 9  0- 0  0- 1  9/42  2/16  1/44  1/46  2/20  2/25  4/28   3
KILPATRICK, Sean       21:18  + 7   0/32  0- 1  0- 3  0- 0  4/29  1/11  0/31  1/30  0/15  0/16  4/19   1
McCLAIN, Anthony       03:55  + 5   0/ 7  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 3  0/ 3  0/ 4  1/ 5  0/ 1  0/ 0  0/ 4   1
GATES, Yancy           31:23  + 8  17/47  7-11  0- 1  3- 5 12/42  1/10  0/46  1/47  2/21  4/27  7/30   2
TOTALS                 40:00       58    14-36  7-14  9-13    50 10/21  9/57 14/59  5/25 11/29 25/38  16
.                                        0.389 0.500 0.692       0.476 0.158 0.237 0.200 0.379 0.658    

Georgetown              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF
Wright, Chris          24:11  - 8   2/28  0- 2  0- 4  2- 2  6/29  2/ 8  1/34  2/32  0/26  1/21  1/19   2
Freeman, Austin        37:27  -10  19/46  5- 8  2- 5  3- 3 13/46  0/ 5  2/57  2/55  1/33  1/36  4/29   0
Clark, Jason           29:59  -11   7/33  0- 0  1- 5  4- 6  5/38  1/ 7  2/44  2/43  0/23  4/32  3/21   0
Vaughn, Julian         30:48  - 8   3/34  1- 9  0- 0  1- 2  9/33  1/ 7  0/43  1/43  1/27  4/26  4/22   5
Lubick, Nate           24:44  - 3   5/29  1- 1  0- 1  3- 3  2/30  2/ 6  0/34  0/34  0/19  0/23  1/17   3
Thompson, Hollis       20:56  - 4   5/25  0- 1  1- 3  2- 2  4/26  1/ 6  0/31  1/30  0/19  1/20  2/18   3
Starks, Markel         10:56  - 4   0/ 8  0- 2  0- 1  0- 0  3/ 9  0/ 2  0/14  1/15  0/ 8  0/ 8  0/ 7   1
Sanford, Vee           08:38  + 0   5/17  0- 0  1- 2  2- 2  2/14  0/ 4  0/19  1/17  0/11  0/ 9  1/13   2
Sims, Henry            07:12  - 1   0/ 8  0- 2  0- 0  0- 0  2/11  1/ 3  0/ 9  0/ 9  1/ 9  0/ 9  1/ 7   0
Benimon, Jerrelle      05:09  -11   0/ 2  0- 0  0- 2  0- 0  2/ 4  0/ 0  0/10  2/ 7  0/ 5  1/ 6  0/ 2   2
TOTALS                 40:00       46     7-25  5-23 17-20    48  8/12  5/59 13/57  3/36 13/38 18/29  18
.                                        0.280 0.217 0.850       0.667 0.085 0.228 0.083 0.342 0.621    

Efficiency: Cincinnati 0.983, Georgetown 0.807
eFG%: Cincinnati 0.490, Georgetown 0.302
Substitutions: Cincinnati 31, Georgetown 42

2-pt Shot Selection:
Dunks: Cincinnati 1-1, Georgetown 0-0
Layups/Tips: Cincinnati 10-14, Georgetown 6-14
Jumpers: Cincinnati 3-21, Georgetown 1-11

Fast break pts (% FG pts): Cincinnati 6 (12.2), Georgetown 6 (20.7)
Pts (eff.) after steal: Cincinnati 12 (133.3), Georgetown 7 (140.0)
Seconds per poss: Cincinnati 20.9, Georgetown 20.6


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