Tonight I'll go ahead and run through the four factors tables that underlie each of the efficiencies we discussed.
Again here, I've adjusted each of the stats to account for the level of competition, but this is a much less certain trick then when I adjust efficiencies. Without getting too technical, I have KenPom's adjusted efficiencies available for all of Georgetown's opponents over the past six seasons, but I have no adjusted stats for the four factors. Think of the RPI, which uses record (25%), opponents' record (50%) and opponents' opponents' record (25%) - since I can't account for opponents' opponents for these stats, they are missing that component equivalent to about 25% with the RPI.
Also, I suspect that this will quickly turn into a stats dump, as it's getting late tonight. I'll try to come back and flush this out a bit more tomorrow. At inspection before posting, this article looks like a mess, but I need to get to bed!
To start, let's take a look at the offense:
What I've done is tag each column if the team was performing significantly better or worse than an average team. Roughly put:Offense - Early Season Season O. Eff. eFG % TO Rate OReb % FT Rate 2003-04 103.9 50.4 19.6 39.1 * 42.4 2004-05 106.9 53.8 * 20.8 36.7 32.4 2005-06 109.9 54.8 * 18.0 32.6 32.9 2006-07 113.8 * 55.6 * 21.7 39.8 * 34.5 2007-08 119.1 * 59.2 ! 18.8 36.0 35.4 2008-09 117.4 * 57.2 * 20.1 36.8 54.7 !
! = Top 10 * = Top 25 x = Bottom 50 X = Bottom 25
Before I delve into this table, I'll go ahead and post the late season stats for offense:
Offense - Late Season Season O. Eff. eFG % TO Rate OReb % FT Rate 2003-04 96.2 44.7 x 21.0 30.2 x 32.8 2004-05 113.2 * 55.0 * 22.2 33.9 32.8 2005-06 117.7 * 54.4 * 18.9 36.4 35.9 2006-07 125.9 ! 58.2 ! 20.6 42.1 ! 38.6 2007-08 114.3 * 55.6 * 22.3 x 33.7 35.8 2008-09 108.3 52.5 23.4 x 34.6 38.2
At this point, I think there are at few truisms that become apparent:
- For a team to operate at a very good (Top 25) or elite (Top 10) efficiency on offense, it needs to shoot extremely well. Doing another thing very well is useful, but not necessary.
- Being very good or elite at one of these skills in the early season is likely to translate to conference play, but not a guarantee.
- Generally, expect performance to decline a bit in conference play. This seems most likely with turnovers.
- Getting offensive rebounds is nice, but not committing turnovers is nicer.
Now let's run the defense:
Defense - Early Season Season D. Eff. eFG % TO Rate OReb % FT Rate 2003-04 91.6 49.2 28.1 ! 39.6 X 28.4 2004-05 97.3 47.1 23.0 37.2 X 39.5 x 2005-06 92.9 47.1 20.7 28.3 * 29.9 2006-07 89.1 * 44.6 * 21.1 29.1 36.3 2007-08 87.2 * 42.1 * 18.4 30.8 25.1 * 2008-09 82.6 * 39.8 ! 25.1 * 36.7 x 27.5
Defense - Late Season Season D. Eff. eFG % TO Rate OReb % FT Rate 2003-04 92.8 50.5 24.8 * 34.4 43.1 x 2004-05 94.4 47.6 21.1 33.2 39.6 x 2005-06 92.6 47.7 20.0 31.1 27.5 2006-07 88.7 * 43.2 * 19.5 34.6 28.5 2007-08 85.3 * 41.8 * 20.7 31.1 41.4 x 2008-09 95.0 48.9 21.5 34.4 36.9
Here, the conclusions are similar:
- Preventing teams from making shots is the best way to run an efficient defense.
- Usually, early season field goal defense will translate well into conference play.
- Bad rebounding early season can be corrected by conference play.
- You can still have a great defense despite giving up fouls
So what happened last season? A few things.
- The team shot less accurately from the field in conference than early season. This wasn't dramatic, and I'd guess tied to the 3FG shooting (
I'm too lazy to look right now). I couldn't let that stand, so I've appended another table at the end with shooting percentages for all seasons. Turns out it was as much 2FG shooting as 3FG shooting. Shows what I know. - Offenisve turnovers went up quite a bit
- Items #1 and #2 also happened in 2007-8, but were a bit more severe last year.
- An elite ability to get to the FT line evaporated in conference play. This may have been a bit of crutch propping up the offense early on.
- The defense was defending field goals at <40% eFG early season, but this fell to Esherick-level in conference. This was the single biggest change in the factors for offense or defense last year, and was fundamental to the collapse in conference.
- Better rebounding couldn't make up for the drop in turnovers generated by the defense.
Finally, how does the team's early season stats look, heading into the game vs. St. John's tomorrow night?
Season O. Eff. eFG % TO Rate OReb % FT Rate
2009-10 114.4 * 57.7 ! 23.2 x 39.3 * 37.7
. D. Eff. eFG % TO Rate OReb % FT Rate
81.9 * 42.5 * 20.9 27.8 * 25.7 *
The offense is currently rated as very good, but I expect that to drop down a bit in conference. As likely as not, the shooting accuracy will drop down a bit against taller Big East clubs, and that lousy turnover rate is most likely going to increase even more.
Rebounding on both ends is very good so far, and while a small decline would be expected in each case, I don't think either will become the worry that we saw last year.
The overall adjusted def. efficiency is very good so far this year, and there isn't a single underlying stat that raises a red flag of unsustainability. I suspect that this season, much like 2007-8, the Hoyas will go as far as their defense will take them.
Edited to add these table:
Offense
. Early Season Late Season Season 2FG% 3FG% FT % 2FG% 3FG% FT % 2003-04 49.0 40.3 70.2 40.7 31.9 72.3 2004-05 51.6 37.9 69.7 51.8 35.8 70.9 2005-06 56.9 37.5 69.3 52.1 34.6 71.3 2006-07 59.7 36.9 70.8 56.8 37.1 71.2 2007-08 60.1 41.0 60.2 54.2 37.1 68.1 2008-09 58.1 34.6 75.3 53.1 32.4 68.2 2009-10 54.0 36.1 71.1
Defense
. Early Season Late Season Season 2FG% 3FG% FT % 2FG% 3FG% FT % 2003-04 43.9 32.9 62.6 50.9 31.9 69.3 2004-05 43.2 33.9 66.7 45.8 33.2 73.8 2005-06 41.4 37.7 64.1 48.0 33.8 70.8 2006-07 42.8 30.6 71.0 43.4 30.2 71.0 2007-08 38.3 29.9 65.8 41.6 29.4 68.4 2008-09 36.8 28.8 71.6 49.5 34.0 70.5 2009-10 41.3 30.3 72.5
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