Monday, August 24, 2009

Greg Monroe and Jeff Green

Want to see something a little eerie? Look at Greg Monroe's freshman year versus Jeff's freshman year (Big East stats only).
Statistic              Monroe '08-09        Green '04-05
% minutes played 80 % 78 %
% possessions Used 24 % 24 %
% shots used 21 % 22 %
Off. Rating 106 110
True Shooting % 59 % 59 %
2 PT FG % 56 % 52 %
3 PT FG % 2/4 43 %
FT % 66 % 72 %
FT Rate 47 % 48 %
Off Reb % 9 % 10 %
Def Reb % 18 % 13 %
Assist rate 21 % 21 %
Turnover rate 23 % 21 %
Steal rate 4 % 2 %
Block rate 3 % 3 %
Fouls per game 2.5 3.3

Aside from a few small differences, they are remarkably similar. They created for their teammates at almost the exact same rate. They shot and controlled the ball at almost the exact same rate.

They were equally effective shooting -- despite doing it slightly differently as Jeff got his more from long range and the line, while, for all the talk of Greg's deficient right hand, he was stronger inside than Green was.

Jeff was slightly more effective offensively because he didn't turn the ball over quite as much. Greg, shockingly, was a better defensive rebounder and very possibly a better defender (more steals, less fouls, better def. rebounder).

Does this tell us anything? I don't know.

Jeff actually had a bit of a sophomore slump. His three point shooting dropped off by 15%, and his FT % fell as well. So did his assist rate, his steal rate and his offensive rebound rate.

However, he cut down a bit on turnovers and rapidly improved on the D boards, which might have been helped a bit by Hibbert getting more time.

I'm not sure this says anything about Monroe for next year. He already drastically improved his rebounding from the beginning of the year to the end. He could make some gains cutting down on turnovers and making himself even more effective down low, and those would be nice improvements.

What it is really saying to me is that improvement for the Hoyas is likely to come from somewhere other than Monroe. Any huge gain for Monroe is likely to be in the matter of extending his shooting range. And that's something that generally takes a large amount of time. Considering that reports from Kenner didn't have him nailing mid-range jumpers off the dribble, that may need to wait until junior year.

Just like it did for Jeff.

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