Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Analysis: Georgetown 68, Providence 58

In a game where Georgetown's opponent shot better from inside, outside and at the free throw line, Georgetown rode offensive rebounding and ball possession to a 10 point road win.

Let's run the numbers:


Offense Defense

1st Half 2nd Half Total 1st Half 2nd Half Total
Pace 31 28 59

Eff. 94.2 138.3 115.3 97.4 99.3 98.3

eFG% 38.6 55.0 46.2 50.0 56.5 53.2
TO% 19.5 14.2 16.9 22.7 24.8 23.7
OR% 50.0 58.8 53.5 28.6 16.7 23.1
FTA/FGA 20.0 26.7 23.1 33.3 8.7 21.3
FTM/FGA 5.7 20.0 12.3 25.0 8.7 17.0

Assist Rate 66.7 42.9 53.8 60.0 63.6 61.9
Block Rate 18.2 13.6 15.9 14.3 25.0 20.0
Steal Rate 13.0 10.6 11.9 9.7 17.7 13.6

2FG% 40.9 40.9 40.9 42.9 43.8 43.3
3FG% 23.1 62.5 38.1 40.0 57.1 47.1
FT% 28.6 75.0 53.3 75.0 100.0 80.0

  Georgetown vs Providence College  
02/18/08 4:00 p.m. at Dunkin' Donuts Center - Providence, R.I.
Final score: Georgetown 68, Providence College 58

Georgetown Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF
Summers, DaJuan 26:14 - 8 11/35 3 -7 0 -4 5 -6 11/43 1 /11 1 /41 3 /40 0 /18 1 /31 0 /15 4
Hibbert, Roy 31:05 + 13 18/59 9 -15 0 -0 0 -1 15/44 2 /13 2 /46 2 /45 6 /28 4 /25 4 /23 2
Wallace, Jonathan 34:57 + 7 14/58 1 -5 4 -8 0 -0 13/56 2 /17 0 /53 2 /52 0 /25 0 /38 2 /21 1
Freeman, Austin 20:16 - 2 4 /31 2 -2 0 -1 0 -0 3 /36 2 /11 1 /33 1 /34 0 /18 1 /26 4 /15 0
Sapp, Jessie 22:33 - 6 6 /33 0 -3 2 -3 0 -0 6 /38 1 /12 1 /36 0 /36 0 /19 2 /28 0 /15 0
Macklin, Vernon 05:18 - 2 0 /9 0 -2 0 -0 0 -2 2 /11 0 /4 0 /8 0 /8 0 /2 3 /8 0 /3 1
Rivers, Jeremiah 23:18 + 18 5 /45 0 -1 1 -3 2 -4 4 /37 1 /15 0 /33 1 /34 0 /16 1 /24 5 /16 2
Crawford, Tyler 15:01 + 13 5 /29 1 -2 1 -2 0 -0 4 /23 1 /8 0 /20 0 /20 0 /10 2 /15 1 /10 0
Ewing, Patrick 21:18 + 17 5 /41 2 -7 0 -0 1 -2 7 /37 4 /13 3 /30 1 /31 0 /14 4 /25 2 /12 2
TOTALS 40:00 68 18-44 8 -21 8 -15 65 14/26 8 /60 10/60 6 /30 23/43 20/26 12
0.409 0.381 0.533 0.538 0.133 0.167 0.200 0.535 0.769

Providence College Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF
MCDERMOTT, Geoff 31:44 - 7 4 /47 2 -3 0 -0 0 -0 3 /34 2 /15 1 /47 3 /47 2 /39 0 /17 6 /37 3
HANKE, Randall 27:25 + 4 4 /44 2 -9 0 -0 0 -0 9 /29 0 /14 1 /42 3 /41 2 /33 2 /13 3 /35 3
XAVIER, Jeff 31:33 + 0 3 /47 0 -0 1 -4 0 -0 4 /35 5 /16 3 /47 2 /49 0 /37 0 /18 4 /34 5
EFEJUKU, Weyinmi 37:37 - 10 25/54 3 -6 5 -6 4 -4 12/44 2 /12 1 /56 3 /57 2 /41 0 /24 4 /40 2
MCKENZIE, Brian 34:58 - 8 16/55 4 -5 2 -5 2 -2 10/42 3 /14 0 /51 1 /51 0 /37 0 /22 1 /34 0
BROOKS, Marshon 08:18 - 4 3 /13 1 -1 0 -1 1 -2 2 /12 1 /4 0 /13 1 /12 0 /9 1 /7 0 /10 0
PETERSON, Jamine 09:40 - 10 3 /8 1 -3 0 -0 1 -2 3 /11 0 /2 0 /15 0 /13 1 /11 2 /8 1 /14 1
BURCH, Charles 13:47 - 3 0 /20 0 -1 0 -1 0 -0 2 /19 0 /6 1 /22 0 /23 0 /11 0 /13 0 /13 0
KALE, Jonathan 03:04 - 9 0 /0 0 -2 0 -0 0 -0 2 /5 0 /0 0 /4 0 /4 0 /0 0 /5 0 /2 0
HALL, Ray 01:54 - 3 0 /2 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0 0 /4 0 /1 0 /3 0 /3 0 /2 0 /3 0 /1 2
TOTALS 40:00 58 13-30 8 -17 8 -10 47 13/21 7 /60 14/60 7 /44 6 /26 20/43 16
0.433 0.471 0.800 0.619 0.117 0.233 0.159 0.231 0.465

Efficiency: Georgetown 1.133, Providence College 0.967
eFG%: Georgetown 0.462, Providence College 0.532
Substitutions: Georgetown 23, Providence College 23

2-pt Shot Selection:
Dunks: Georgetown 3-3, Providence College 2-2
Layups/Tips: Georgetown 11-28, Providence College 5-18
Jumpers: Georgetown 4-13, Providence College 6-10

Quick comments:
  • For the 2nd consecutive game, Georgetown rode hot outside shooting in the 2nd half to put up a high efficiency number. This time, it was enough to win the game.
  • In addition to the 5-8 3FG shooting in the 2nd half (can we declare Jon Wallace's shooting slump officially over?), the Hoyas improved their already gaudy OR % and committed only 4 turnovers on 28 possessions. This was the same formula that led to the strong 2nd half against Syracuse.

6 comments:

  1. Hoyachris here - I would add to the Hoya defensive performance that 3 or 4 of Providence's 3 point makes were extraordinarily well guarded NBA-type shots. The defense looked better than it graded out.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Can your post the formula for how you retroactively calculate the expected point spread, based on Adj. Off. Eff. and Adj. Def. Eff. from Ken Pomeroy?
    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Can your post the formula for how you retroactively calculate the expected point spread, based on Adj. Off. Eff. and Adj. Def. Eff. from Ken Pomeroy?
    Thanks!


    I can, but not right now (that spreadsheet is at home). I probably won't get around to it until this weekend, if you can wait.

    Cheers.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Here you go:

    Expected Point Spread = Expected Points Scored - Expected Points Allowed

    Expected Points Scored:
    Game Pace / 100 * [Avg. Off. Eff. * Opp. Avg. Def. Eff. * (1 + Wt. Factor)^2] / Nat'l. Avg. Eff.

    Expected Points Allowed:
    Game Pace / 100 * [Avg. Def. Eff. * Opp. Avg. Off. Eff. * (1 - Wt. Factor)^2] / Nat'l. Avg. Eff.

    Glossary:
    Avg. Off. Eff. = Team Adj. Off. Eff.
    Avg. Def. Eff. = Team Adj. Def. Eff.
    Opp. Avg. Off. Eff. = Opponent's Adj. Off. Eff.
    Opp. Avg. Def. Eff. = Opponent's Adj. Def. Eff.

    Wt. Factor = +0.014 for home games, -0.014 for away games, 0 for neutral games

    Nat'l. Avg. Eff.:
    I actually use the median national offensive & defensive efficiencies, then average the 2 numbers. Currently, median Nat'l. OE = 101.2, median Nat'l. DE = 101.7, so Nat'l. Avg. Eff. = 101.5



    Hope that helps!

    ReplyDelete
  5. What do use for Game Pace?

    ReplyDelete
  6. What do use for Game Pace?

    I use the actual pace of the game played; after all, I know what the pace was, so this eliminates one source of uncertainty in the predicted point spread.

    You can take a look at the comments in this post, where I discuss my intentions with this stat.

    Out of curiosity, why do you ask (assuming you're the same anonymous as the 2nd comment)?

    ReplyDelete