Is this thing still on?

Normally after a long silence on this blog, I'd post a Jim Anchower reference as a prelude to a series of hard-hitting articles on your beloved Georgetown Hoyas.

Not going to happen this year.

Alan and I are both slammed with real-life responsibilities this year (don't worry, it'll happen to you too, soon enough) so the site is going to be light on content for now and for the foreseeable future. No season previews or player profiles this year - check Casual Hoya for their on-going series if you need a fix.

But rest assured, we aren't abandoning you entirely.

I'll keep the stats pages live and updated as best I can - should be able to run them at least weekly. I'll also try to run our per-game stats package after Mex posts the box score and play-by-play at GUHoyas, hopefully the same day as the game. But don't expect much in the way of game recaps or highlight clips this year - just stats dumps from me.

Alan will try to drop in with a few articles over the course of the season - generally, he'll chime in when the chattering classes have completely lost perspective, to inject some sanity.


Hope you had a restful summer, and looking forward to another season.

Recap: North Carolina State 66, Georgetown 63

Image from here

Last season, we noted in this space that Coach Thompson was in danger of cementing a reputation when his 6th-seeded Hoyas were beat by 11th-seeded Virginia Commonwealth.

Consider the reputation cemented.

For the fourth consecutive tournament appearance, Georgetown was knocked out in the opening weekend by a hot-from-behind-the-arc double-digit seed. Today, the 11th-seeded North Carolina State Wolfpack had the pleasure, 66-63.

The expression that usually brings a pain to the heart of a stathead is "the eye-test." But today, I'd have to say that North Carolina St. passed the eye-test, in that for about 25 minutes of the game the Wolfpack just looked like the better team, and often CJ Leslie looked without peer on the floor.

The story from the pre-game info at Casual Hoya was that Wolfpack fans were concerned about foul difficulty inside, but it turned out to be Georgetown to suffer that fate, as Henry Sims picked his second foul at the 14:20 mark of the first half, with the Hoyas ahead 8-5. Now the narrative late in the game was that NC State was able to pull away from Georgetown once Sims sat, but the reality was that the Hoyas enjoyed a 17-10 run over the next 9+ minutes of game time to extend to a 10-point lead. The game was 20 possessions in, on pace for 53 for the entire game.

What ensued felt like a mugging at half-court, as the Hoyas committed 6 turnover on their next 10 possessions while the Wolfpack ran off seven points in 32 seconds on their way to a 15-2 run to close out the half. The pace of the game had noticeably quickened. The hits kept coming as the Vespers half began, as NC State used a 13-5 run out of the gate to stretch their lead to eleven points.

As we've seen in the past, when the wheels fall off Hollis Thompson is able to remain calm and throw enough good shots at the rim to ring up points. And today that effort slowly dragged Georgetown back into the game, as Hollis scored 15 of his team-leading 23 points after the deficit had ballooned to eleven.

Somehow, near the end of the game, the Hoyas had three attempts to tie or take the lead:

• Down three with 0:40 left, Henry Sims drove right and drew the foul. His shot attempt for the and-one was on-line but short of the rim. I think that was the first (only?) moment in the second half where I thought Georgetown could actually win the game.
• Down two with 0:25 left, the Hoyas tried to find Henry in the left block (I was having serious Cinci in the Big East, 2-OT flashbacks), but instead Otto Porter took and left short a baseline jumper. I'd guess many would have a problem with Otto's shot, preferring to hold for a better look; in his defense, he shot early enough that a miss wouldn't end the game, as we saw.
• With 4.6 seconds left and a Wolfpack free throw missed, suddenly Jason Clark was streaking down the sideline with a chance to tie the game. His attempt was open, but hurried and deep and never had a chance. The final horn sounded.

Looking at the tempo-free box, the Hoyas only struggled in two areas: defensive rebounding and 3FG defense.

The outside shooting is the less serious offense. Although the Hoyas will end the season leading the nation in 3FG% allowed [27.7%],and the Wolfpack are an average 3FG-shooting team [35.8%, 98th nationally], we've learned from Ken Pomeroy that 3FG shooting is a very hard thing to predict in small sample sizes, such as a tournament game.

But the Hoyas also led the Big East conference in defensive rebounding [OR allowed = 31%], a stat that helped drive their defense to the top-ten nationally (per KenPom). The difference in offensive rebounding [41% to 25%, NCSU to GU] today and the resulting difference in second chance points [15-8] proved to be the difference in the game.


And so another season comes to an end, although perhaps not as bitterly as the previous four. With low expectations entering the season, a shot to advance to the Sweet-16 was about the best-case scenario for the Hoyas and their fans. And that's what they got.

We'd be remiss if we didn't acknowledge the seniors on the team:

• Jason Clark, whose spectacular play thrilled Georgetown fans for four seasons and netted him all-Big East honors. But perhaps more importantly, he also earned the Big East's Sportsmanship award. His and his teammates' dignity make rooting for the Hoyas a pleasure, in spite of the inevitable pains.
• Henry Sims, whose emergence early this season as a star, and whose late-season heroics helped bring the Hoyas to the cusp of the Sweet-16
• And while I'm hesitant to include the nominal junior here, Hollis Thompson, who knew how to thrill his audience (at Alabama and vs. Marquette this year). Hollis is allegedly on schedule to graduate a semester early, at the end of this academic year.

Let's run the numbers:

TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Home                            Visitor   
.            Georgetown                      North Carolina State         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            31        32        64
 
Points          27        36        63          30        36        66   

Effic.         86.4     111.7      99.2        96.0     111.7     103.9  
 
eFG%           50.0      48.4      49.0        39.7      48.0      43.5  
TO%            32.0       6.2      18.9        16.0      15.5      15.7  
OR%            25.0      25.0      25.0        45.5      35.0      40.5  
FTA/FGA        45.0      25.8      33.3        48.3      68.0      57.4  

Assist Rate    62.5      61.5      61.9        50.0      60.0      55.0  
Block Rate      8.7      12.5      10.3        11.1      11.8      11.5  
Steal Rate      9.6       6.2       7.9         9.6       3.1       6.3  
 
2FG%           44.4      52.9      50.0        30.4      37.5      33.3  
3FG%           36.4      28.6      32.0        50.0      44.4      46.7  
FT%            77.8      75.0      76.5        50.0      70.6      61.3

more stats after the jump

St Louis bracket: log5 prediction after Round of 32

Now that the Hoyas have advanced to the Round of 32, it's time to update the original log5 predictions for the region.

Ken Pomeroy has updated the official log5 odds for the Round of 32 on his website. As I did for my original log5 prediction, I'm going off results against the KenPom Top 100 (not including the Round of 64 results).

Here are the percentage odds for advancing to the next round for each team:

Seed  Team           2nd Rd  Sweet 16  Elite 8  Final 4   Orig
1     North Carolina   100      61.6     50.6     30.8    25.7
16    Lamar/Vermont    out       out      out      out     0.2
8     Creighton        100      38.4     28.5     14.2     8.4
9     Alabama          out       out      out      out     3.0

5     Temple           out       out      out      out     5.6
12    South Florida    100      53.9     11.9      3.3     1.0
4     Michigan         out       out      out      out     5.8
13    Ohio             100      46.1      9.0      2.3     0.6

6     San Diego St.    out       out      out      out     4.6
11    NC State         100      22.6      5.6      1.6     0.8
3     Georgetown       100      77.4     31.4     13.7     7.3
14    Belmont          out       out      out      out     1.6

7     Saint Mary's     out       out      out      out     7.1
10    Purdue           100      25.7     11.4      4.0     1.9
2     Kansas           100      74.3     51.5     30.2    25.3
15    Detroit          out       out      out      out     0.1

Note I've listed a couple teams in bold in the brackets. The Hoyas were bolded to highlight their odds. As I noted in the prior post, Ohio has played few games against the KenPom Top 100 (only seven including the game against Michigan). Because of their small sample size, I'm using a nominal rating more along the lines of what a good #13 seed might have. I've also added team's original odds of reaching the Final Four. Note, however, these aren't the same as the odds listed in prior post. Those were based on a superior (by this methodology) Cal team winning the play-in game; since USF won, I replaced them with Cal in the odds calculator, which improved everybody else's odds.

By virtue of San Diego State's loss, the Hoyas see the biggest rise in the region in their chances of making the Final Four. NC State was in some respects the ACC's UConn or Texas, a squad cursed with potential that often failed to play up to their talent level. Using the full Pomeroy ratings (pre-tourney), the Hoyas are still 72% favorites, but aren't favored by as much as UNC or Kansas. That feels more accurate to me, but we shall see.

Notes: log5 predictions are made using Pomeroy ratings based on games through Sunday, March 11.
No adjustment has been made for any home court advantage - all games are assumed neutral court.

Finally, a gentle reminder: efficiency ratings and the predictions derived therefrom are not destiny.

Recap: Georgetown 74, Belmont 59

Image from here

Woo-hoo! The Hoyas used their secret weapon (the 2-3 zone) to slow down a very scary Belmont offensive attack, while playing one of their strongest offensive games of the season to handle the Bruins, 74-69.

Just a few bullet points for tonight:

•  As noted by Ken Pomeroy, Belmont shooting 10/27 [37%] on 3FG was not a bad result for the Bruins. The team led the Atlantic Sun conference by making 39.5% of their threes, so the Hoyas only nudged them a touch under their league average. Belmont also attempted half of all field goals from behind the arc, a bit higher than the 41% clip that they typically use. But it should be pointed out that the Bruins played very differently in each half:
• 1st: 3/8 2FG, 6/15 3FG, 3/7 FT
• 2nd: 8/19 2FG, 4/12 3FG, 4/4 FT
• In the end, Belmont scored at a clip of 1.00 points per possessions. You can stare at Belmont's offensive stats (i.e. Georgetown's defensive stats) as much as you'd like, but the game played at about the way you'd expect for a great offense [adj. OEff = 116.5] vs. a great defense [adj. DEff = 87.4].
• The difference in the game today was the Hoyas' shooting. Georgetown's eFG = 66.3% was the biggest number put up against Belmont all season, and only two teams had previously made it north of 60% against the Bruins (Memphis and Stetson). 
• Why did the Hoyas shoot so well? They took advantage of their huge size advantage to make nearly all their shots close to the basket: Georgetown shot 20/22 on dunks, layups and tip-ins. For Belmont, once they let the Hoyas get the ball in deep it was an almost automatic two points.
• There were three stars for the Hoyas tonight: Jason Clark, Otto Porter and Henry Sims.
• Jason Clark was the star of the game for the Hoyas because he made shots [6/7 2FG, 3/5 3FG]. I've been loath to point it out, but Jason has been mired in a shooting slump throughout Big East play. Did you know that Nate Lubick [2/7 3FG (29 %)] actually shot better behind the arc than Clark [22/82 3FG (27%)]? So Jason's hot hand to start the game [1st half: 2/3 2FG, 3/4 3FG] was both a relief, and a concern (can he keep it up?). Clark smartly holstered his outside shot - only one attempt - in the second half, instead driving the lane for layups.
• As noted by Jack in comments, Henry used an amazing 43% of possessions while he was on the floor. How? He took shots (12 of GU's 34 field goal attempts while he was in the game), he set up others (5 assists) and he occasionally gave the ball away (3 TOs). Note that most of Henry's work came in the second half, as he had to sit with two fouls after 12 possessions played in the game - I wonder if it was a combination of JT3's strategy and Sims trying to play catch-up.
•  I'm still trying to figure out how Otto Porter was left off the All-Rookie team for the Big East. Otto had 16 pts, 8 reb, 0 turnovers, and you just come to expect it. By my reckoning - the Net Points stats found below the jump - Porter hasn't been less than very good since at Seton Hall.

The Hoyas will move on to play North Carolina State on Sunday at 12:15 pm in the round of 32.


Let's run the numbers:

TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
 
.            Home                            Visitor   
.            Georgetown                      Belmont         
.            1st Half  2nd Half   Total      1st Half  2nd Half   Total
Pace            29        31        59
 
Points          36        38        74          27        32        59   

Effic.        126.3     123.8     124.9        94.7     104.2      99.5  
 
eFG%           61.5      71.7      66.3        52.2      45.2      48.1  
TO%            17.5      22.8      20.2        21.0       9.8      15.2  
OR%            38.5      25.0      33.3        25.0      31.6      28.6  
FTA/FGA        19.2      34.8      26.5        30.4      12.9      20.4  

Assist Rate    28.6      62.5      46.7        77.8      75.0      76.2  
Block Rate     12.5      10.5      11.1         0.0       0.0       0.0  
Steal Rate      7.0       0.0       3.4         3.5       6.5       5.1  
 
2FG%           58.8      75.0      67.6        37.5      42.1      40.7  
3FG%           44.4      33.3      41.7        40.0      33.3      37.0  
FT%            80.0      62.5      69.2        42.9     100.0      63.6

more stats after the jump

Lineup stats for all conf. games

I'm still struggling with the change to daylight savings time, so just a quick stats dump before bed.

First, a breakout of minutes played by position.

Here, we follow the same rules as we've used before - players are sorted by height, shortest to tallest, with weight serving as the tie-breaker. All heights and weights come from the GU website. Not all slots will add up to 40 minutes, both due to rounding and because I don't show any player with less than a minute played at a position.

1. Starks [21], Clark [17], Trawick [2]
2. Clark [17], Trawick [9], Whittington [11], Thompson [4]
3. Thompson [25], Whittington [10], Porter [5]
4. Porter [25], Lubick [12], Thompson [3]
5. Sims[29], Lubick [5], Hopkins [5]

I ran through this table ten games ago, and frankly not much has changed. A minute or two here or there, but overall the team we saw mid-way though conference play is the team we have now. Of course, Porter has moved into the starting lineup, but minutes are more or less constant.


Next, line-up efficiencies, now with color highlighting - green for a lineup that is +0.3 pts/poss or better, and red for a lineup that is negative pts/poss.

Here we go:

                                                 Offense                  Defense             Net
Lineup                                    # poss   Eff    Time     # poss   Eff    Time       Eff
Clark-Lubick-Sims-Starks-Thompson           159     89    17.6       167     93    19.6        -5
Clark-Porter-Sims-Starks-Thompson           167    108    17.9       155     86    19.3        22
Clark-Porter-Sims-Thompson-Whittington      143    108    20.6       143     88    20.2        20
Clark-Lubick-Porter-Sims-Thompson            94    105    20.9       100     95    18.6        10
Clark-Porter-Sims-Starks-Whittington         54     98    17.6        54     69    20.5        30
Clark-Porter-Sims-Thompson-Trawick           40     70    19.4        39    100    21.5       -30
Clark-Porter-Sims-Trawick-Whittington        33     97    18.0        37    100    23.4        -3
Clark-Lubick-Porter-Thompson-Whittington     35    100    17.1        32     94    15.4         6
Porter-Sims-Starks-Thompson-Whittington      31    136    21.6        32    103    23.8        32
Clark-Hopkins-Porter-Starks-Thompson         31     94    20.0        27    119    16.1       -25
Clark-Sims-Starks-Thompson-Whittington       29    152    17.7        26    104    18.4        48
Clark-Lubick-Porter-Starks-Thompson          24     79    20.2        23    109    19.8       -30
Clark-Hopkins-Porter-Thompson-Whittington    22    109    21.2        24     75    21.7        34
Clark-Lubick-Porter-Starks-Whittington       22    146    19.9        19    132    20.3        14
Clark-Hopkins-Porter-Trawick-Whittington     19    121    21.7        20     95    17.9        26
Clark-Lubick-Porter-Sims-Trawick             18    150    11.8        18    106    20.9        44
Clark-Lubick-Sims-Thompson-Whittington       19    121    20.3        17     77    16.5        45
Clark-Lubick-Porter-Trawick-Whittington      17    112    20.6        19    116    26.9        -4
Clark-Lubick-Porter-Thompson-Trawick         15    147    16.5        18    106    18.9        41
Porter-Sims-Starks-Trawick-Whittington       13    100    15.5        18     67    22.2        33

I think I'll let the stats speak for themselves here, as I'm not sure I see much of a trend.