Sunday, January 1, 2012

Coach Thompson, Simply in Numbers

Below I've put four stats into context for the entirety of John Thompson III's time as head coach of the Hoyas.

I've included the Pomeroy rankings from 2012, because as Brian notes in this awesome article here, they are a very strong predictor of the year-end numbers.  I haven't used the conference win predictions because there is a difference to my mind between the two [editor's note:  this is Alan's gentle way of saying he doesn't believe them].

I'm not going to write up an analysis for now; draw your own conclusions.

1.  Winning
Regular Season Conference Wins

     Team   2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012     Avg
 1   Pitt    10   10   12   10   15   13   15    -     12.1
 2   Lou      -    6   12   14   16   11   12    -     11.8
 3   Vill    11   14    9    9   13   13    9    -     11.1
 4   Conn    13   14    6   13   15    7    9    -     11.0
 5   Syr     11    7   10    9   11   15   12    -     10.7
 6   Marq     -   10   10   11   12   11    9    -     10.5
 7   WVU      8   11    9   11   10   13   11    -     10.4
 8   Gtown    8   10   13   15    7   10   10    -     10.4
 9   ND       9    6   11   14    8   10   14    -     10.3
 10  Cincy    -    8    2    8    8    7   11    -      7.3
 11  SHU      4    9    4    7    7    9    7    -      6.7
 12  SJU      3    5    7    5    6    6   12    -      6.3
 13  Prov     4    5    8    6   10    4    4    -      5.9
 14  USF      -    1   12    3    4    9    3    -      5.3
 15  Rut      2    7    3    3    2    5    5    -      3.9
 16  DeP      -    5    9    6    0    1    1    -      3.7


Pomeroy Rank         

     Team    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012     Avg
 1   Lou       -   38   12    6    4   43   14   17     19.1
 2   Pitt     22   12   13   21    5   31    4   50     19.8
 3   Gtown    42   14    5    7   27   13   40   13     20.1
 4   WVU      30   16   32   19    9    8   21   37     21.5
 5   Syr      17   51   37   38   15    4   11    4     22.1
 6   Conn     13    4   49   22    3   56   10   28     23.1
 7   Marq      -   28   38   11   19   33   32   18     25.6
 8   Vill      4    7   19   43   14   21   33   64     25.6
 9   ND       48   27   20   28   38   38   15   43     32.1
 10  Cincy     -   42   113  98   85   75   23   52     69.7
 11  SHU      92   84   81   103  73   72   59   42     75.8
 12  Prov     50   71   67   74   80   88   96   139    83.1
 13  SJU      84   108  101  126  116  67   42   144    98.5
 14  USF       -   162  131  101  135  83   127  137   125.1
 15  Rut      118  69   166  164  141  156  78   124   127.0
 16  DeP       -   82   46   95   198  172  202  152   135.3

Quick thoughts: The biggest difference between the two is probably 2012, as well as noting that there's only a small difference (less than one win) between 3rd and 9th in average conference wins. After that it could be schedule strength, under-performance in conference play, and/or luck.

a look at the offense and defense after the jump


2.  Offense
Pomeroy Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Rank

     Team    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012     Avg
 1   Pitt     19   21   12    8    2   40    5    9     14.5
 2   WVU      18   12   13   21   18   11   23   36     19.0
 3   ND       51    6   10   22   19    6    3   43     20.0
 4   Gtown    34    9    2   18   45    9   39   27     22.9
 5   Syr      16   60   48   37   11    8   20    2     25.3
 6   Marq      -   31   49   24    9   22   22   22     25.6
 7   Vill     12   11   36   61   22   12   24   42     27.5
 8   Conn     26    3   126  17   15   89   16   12     38.0
 9   Lou       -   63   29   32   31   23   46   83     43.9
 10  Prov     38   39   58   60   52   19   72   146    60.5
 11  Cincy     -   44   139  132  78   114  51   68     89.4
 12  SHU      166  102  80   63   51   39   151  74     90.8
 13  DeP       -   47   59   47   191  210  168  91    116.1
 14  Rut      81   55   198  253  241  154  85   151   152.3
 15  SJU      162  245  150  215  181  98   52   124   153.4
 16  USF       -   267  168  108  184  106  157  191   168.7



3.  Defense
Pomeroy Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Rank

     Team    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012     Avg
 1   Lou       -   36   16    5    2   79    4    6     21.1
 2   Conn      7   16    7   41    3   33   14   65     23.3
 3   Syr      22   55   28   65   29   18   16   10     30.4
 4   Gtown    66   38   20    6   22   47   58   15     34.0
 5   Vill      4   17   18   34   15   62   55   114    39.9
 6   Marq      -   54   31   10   51   57   61   27     41.6
 7   WVU      78   53   57   24   14   22   36   69     44.1
 8   Pitt     38   12   26   54   35   26   25   170    48.3
 9   SJU      34   15   74   50   77   51   44   171    64.5
 10  Cincy     -   62   98   72   104  59   18   56     67.0
 11  ND       64   120  49   42   85   132  68   113    84.1
 12  SHU      37   81   106  154  116  122  13   38     83.4
 13  USF       -   59   91   99   112  77   114  96     92.6
 14  Rut      160  98   152  74   63   168  79   94     111.0
 15  Prov     84   135  90   95   131  237  150  132    131.8
 16  DeP       -   130  40   173  213  119  243  245    166.1

2 comments:

  1. There were only 16 league games through 2007 so just averaging the wins reduces the value of 2005, 2006, and 2007 seasons. 2007 Hoyas were 13-3 which is better than Louisville's 14-4 record the next season, but Louisville comes out better on your chart.

    ReplyDelete
  2. True. I may be too lazy to change it. I could use winning %, but I like the look of the raw numbers better. I probably should add in BET wins/losses as well.

    ReplyDelete