I don't have too much to say about tonight's game, other than it was - statistically - the worst game of the year for the Hoyas. Worse than the Pitt game, where DeJuan Blair did whatever he wanted; worse than the Tennessee game, where Cameron Tatum likely had the game of his life, all in the last 6:00; and even worse than the West Virginia game, where the Mountaineers made sure to squeeze out the largest margin of victory possible.
Now a large reason for this being the worst game of the season is that Louisville was completely unconscious from deep, making 8 of their first 10 3FGA. That's gonna tend to skew Georgetown's defensive numbers. But the Hoyas also played poor offensively, even accounting for the customarily stellar Louisville defense.
All of this comes from the Performance Charts I update weekly (and now updated through tonight's game). If you have a look at the overall performance for the Hoyas this season (reproduced here), its clear that a sea change took place between the UConn and Pitt games.
After the UConn game, KenPom.com rated Georgetown the best team in the country. The Hoyas have been sliding down the ratings / rankings ever since, but that early season run is still skewing the overall computer numbers for the season, along with the expectations for Hoya fans going into each game.
If I look only at the 15 games played in 2009 (Pittsburgh forward), I can recalculate G'town's Pythagorean rating (per KenPom): Georgetown would rank 65th (with a rating = 0.814), just behind Siena (and 2 places ahead of Maryland), well off the NCAA bubble.
There's no cut-and-dry explanation for the free-fall - the defense has been mostly poor since the UConn game, with Georgetown defending better than expected only in the Rutgers and S. Florida games. But, if you'll forgive a fitted line, it looks like the defense has actually been trending worse all season:
For an eight game stretch between the Pitt and first Cincinnati games, the D was mediocre but never horrible. Since, there have been two strong performances (the aforementioned Rutgers and USF games), an average game (2nd game vs. Cinci) and four lousy efforts, including three of the last four. I don't see any common thread to account for the results from game-to-game, but would be happy to hear any suggestions. Pomeroy's analysis suggests all four factors contribute.
Offense, to me, is only slightly less troubling. Here, to my eye, there is a distinct declining trend since either the Maryland romp or soon afterward:
It looks like the offense declined strongly in December and January, and has now plateaued. For the middle part of the season, the offense was the great-unknown from game-to-game, leading to the blow-out win against Syracuse and the blow-out loss against West Virginia. Unfortunately, the defense has recently become even more unpredictable, making each game a crapshoot at best.
If you combine the two fitted lines and apply them to overall performance for this season since the Maryland game, you get this:
Not a pretty picture. If it's any consolation, it appears that the Hoyas may have finally hit bottom. We can only hope.
Well, that's all for tonight. I'll update the stats pages tomorrow.
As for tonight, let's run the numbers:
TEMPO-FREE BOX SCORE
. Home Visitor
. GU Louisville
. 1st Half 2nd Half Total 1st Half 2nd Half Total
Pace 33 34 67
Effic. 93.9 78.6 85.8 124.2 102.0 112.5
eFG% 57.9 32.8 42.2 85.0 45.8 63.6
TO% 27.3 17.5 22.2 27.3 20.4 23.7
OR% 15.4 37.5 29.7 28.6 35.3 33.3
FT Rate 78.9 25.0 45.1 55.0 87.5 72.7
Assist Rate 30.0 40.0 35.0 71.4 70.0 70.8
Block Rate 0.0 5.6 3.1 0.0 12.5 8.6
Steal Rate 21.2 11.7 16.3 18.2 11.7 14.8
2FG% 72.7 37.5 48.6 57.1 44.4 50.0
3FG% 25.0 12.5 18.8 100.0 33.3 66.7
FT% 60.0 75.0 65.2 63.6 61.9 62.5
INDIVIDUAL NET POINTS STATS
GU Off Poss Individ Def Individ
Player Poss Used ORtg Pts Prod Poss DRtg Pts Allow Net Pts
Summers, DaJuan 49 6.5 53.5 3.5 50 113.2 11.3 -7.8
Wright, Chris 61 15.5 71.2 11.0 60 110.2 13.2 -2.2
Mescheriakov, Nikita 27 4.5 71.6 3.2 27 118.9 6.4 -3.2
Monroe, Greg 51 10.7 89.0 9.5 50 95.3 9.5 +0.0
Freeman, Austin 46 5.4 126.1 6.8 47 107.6 10.1 -3.3
Clark, Jason 35 7.6 71.1 5.4 36 105.3 7.6 -2.2
Sapp, Jessie 40 9.1 100.4 9.2 40 87.5 7.0 +2.2
Vaughn, Julian 11 1.8 257.7 4.7 11 156.3 3.4 +1.3
Sims, Henry 6 0.5 200.0 1.0 6 132.2 1.6 -0.6
Wattad, Omar 9 1.0 0.0 0.0 8 76.8 1.2 -1.2
TOTALS 67 62.7 86.7 54.4 67 106.6 71.4 -17.1
Louisville Off Poss Individ Def Individ
Player Poss Used ORtg Pts Prod Poss DRtg Pts Allow Net Pts
WILLIAMS, Terrence 64 14.4 109.7 15.8 64 76.5 9.8 +6.0
CLARK, Earl 63 17.0 115.2 19.6 62 71.1 8.8 +10.8
SAMUELS, Samardo 42 10.1 106.9 10.8 41 84.8 7.0 +3.8
McGEE, Andre 38 0.8 253.4 2.1 38 70.5 5.4 -3.3
SMITH, Jerry 35 6.2 93.7 5.8 36 81.9 5.9 -0.1
KNOWLES, Preston 31 5.9 116.3 6.9 29 101.2 5.9 +1.0
SOSA, Edgar 29 4.2 109.2 4.6 29 101.3 5.9 -1.2
SCOTT, Will 4 0.0 - 0.0 5 136.0 1.4 -1.4
SWOPSHIRE, Jared 4 1.0 0.0 0.0 5 100.0 1.0 -1.0
GOODE, George 7 1.4 47.6 0.7 8 131.6 2.1 -1.4
JENNINGS, Terrence 18 5.0 141.5 7.0 18 69.6 2.5 +4.5
TOTALS 67 66.1 110.9 73.3 67 82.9 55.5 +17.8
HD BOX SCORE
Louisville vs GU
02/23/09 7:00 at Verizon Center
Final score: Louisville 76, GU 58
Louisville Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF
WILLIAMS, Terrence 38:36 +14 10/72 3- 7 0- 2 4- 9 9/42 7/19 2/64 2/64 1/35 2/24 10/36 2
CLARK, Earl 36:29 +19 22/72 2- 7 3- 3 9-13 10/42 3/18 4/62 4/63 0/31 1/23 7/35 1
SAMUELS, Samardo 21:39 +12 10/47 4- 5 0- 0 2- 4 5/22 2/11 1/41 4/42 1/18 1/11 3/21 3
McGEE, Andre 21:22 +17 3/45 0- 0 1- 1 0- 0 1/26 2/14 2/38 0/38 0/15 0/13 1/20 4
SMITH, Jerry 22:09 +14 8/40 1- 3 2- 3 0- 0 6/24 0/11 0/36 2/35 0/12 0/11 2/17 0
KNOWLES, Preston 17:15 + 9 10/35 2- 4 2- 3 0- 0 7/20 1/ 6 0/29 0/31 0/22 1/13 0/20 2
SOSA, Edgar 18:38 + 1 6/31 3- 3 0- 0 0- 0 3/18 2/ 6 0/29 2/29 0/20 0/11 0/17 3
SCOTT, Will 02:00 - 1 0/ 5 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0/ 2 0/ 2 0/ 5 0/ 4 0/ 1 0/ 0 1/ 1 1
SWOPSHIRE, Jared 03:31 - 1 0/ 4 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0/ 2 0/ 1 0/ 5 1/ 4 0/ 4 0/ 1 0/ 2 1
GOODE, George 05:57 - 4 0/ 5 0- 1 0- 0 0- 0 1/ 9 0/ 2 0/ 8 0/ 7 0/ 9 1/ 7 0/ 9 0
JENNINGS, Terrence 12:24 +10 7/24 1- 2 0- 0 5- 6 2/13 0/ 6 1/18 0/18 1/ 8 1/ 6 1/ 7 4
TOTALS 40:00 76 16-32 8-12 20-32 44 17/24 10/67 16/67 3/35 8/24 26/37 21
. 0.500 0.667 0.625 0.708 0.149 0.239 0.086 0.333 0.703
GU Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF
Summers, DaJuan 28:21 -20 4/38 1- 4 0- 4 2- 4 8/42 1/13 2/50 0/49 1/18 0/32 4/13 3
Wright, Chris 36:02 -12 12/52 2- 8 1- 4 5- 8 12/47 1/15 0/60 4/61 0/30 1/35 3/23 4
Mescheriakov, Nikita 14:24 -14 5/21 0- 0 1- 1 2- 2 1/12 1/ 5 0/27 3/27 0/15 0/ 9 0/ 8 4
Monroe, Greg 29:52 - 7 10/45 4- 7 0- 0 2- 2 7/32 1/11 2/50 3/51 0/23 1/20 4/18 3
Freeman, Austin 27:02 -20 8/38 4- 5 0- 1 0- 1 6/34 0/ 9 2/47 0/46 0/22 1/27 2/18 3
Clark, Jason 22:37 -10 4/30 1- 3 0- 1 2- 2 4/26 1/ 9 1/36 2/35 0/18 2/18 0/13 2
Sapp, Jessie 25:02 - 3 9/41 2- 5 1- 5 2- 4 10/36 2/12 4/40 0/40 0/21 1/25 1/18 4
Vaughn, Julian 08:37 - 5 4/12 2- 2 0- 0 0- 0 2/16 0/ 3 0/11 0/11 0/ 8 3/13 0/ 6 1
Sims, Henry 03:12 - 3 2/ 4 1- 1 0- 0 0- 0 1/ 4 0/ 1 0/ 6 0/ 6 0/ 1 0/ 2 0/ 0 1
Wattad, Omar 04:51 + 4 0/ 9 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0/ 6 0/ 2 0/ 8 1/ 9 0/ 4 0/ 4 0/ 3 0
TOTALS 40:00 58 17-35 3-16 15-23 51 7/20 11/67 15/67 1/32 11/37 16/24 25
. 0.486 0.188 0.652 0.350 0.164 0.224 0.031 0.297 0.667
Efficiency: Louisville 1.134, GU 0.866
eFG%: Louisville 0.636, GU 0.422
Substitutions: Louisville 32, GU 32
2-pt Shot Selection:
Dunks: Louisville 3-3, GU 4-5
Layups/Tips: Louisville 7-16, GU 8-16
Jumpers: Louisville 6-13, GU 5-14
Fast break pts: Louisville 11 (0.196), GU 4 (0.093)
Seconds per off. poss: Louisville 18.0, GU 17.8
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