Tuesday, November 4, 2008

A closer look at shooting accuracy

I'm back plugging away at the stats behind the scenes, but I thought I'd make a short post to demonstrate that I've not been hit by a bus.

Using the play-by-play data, one can break out 2FG shots into multiple types:
  • Dunks
  • Layups (actually, layups and tip-ins, which I treat as one category)
  • Jumpers

I've broken out Georgetown shooting percentages for all of the games from the last 2 seasons where there is a working play-by-play (see the plus/minus page for which games are missing).

2007-8 Season
Player               Dunks   Layups   2pt J's   3pters    FTs
Wallace, Jonathan 0 /0 24/38 19/37 52/130 42/50
% 0.632 0.514 0.400 0.840

Summers, DaJuan 20/20 33/60 10/37 41/123 62/87
% 0.550 0.270 0.333 0.713

Sapp, Jessie 0 /0 28/49 9 /33 45/116 41/53
% 0.571 0.273 0.388 0.774

Ewing, Patrick 15/15 24/41 7 /16 9 /35 44/66
% 0.585 0.438 0.257 0.667

Hibbert, Roy 15/15 82/136 46/88 2 /2 87/127
% 0.603 0.523 1.000 0.685

Freeman, Austin 4 /4 43/63 14/35 32/81 26/31
% 0.683 0.400 0.395 0.839

Macklin, Vernon 11/11 17/29 8 /20 0 /1 4 /30
% 0.586 0.400 0.000 0.133

Wright, Chris 0 /0 15/26 1 /8 6 /16 11/17
% 0.577 0.125 0.375 0.647

Rivers, Jeremiah 1 /1 6 /16 6 /22 11/29 16/26
% 0.375 0.273 0.379 0.615

Crawford, Tyler 0 /0 5 /8 1 /3 3 /20 4 /6
% 0.625 0.333 0.150 0.667


2006-7 Season
Player               Dunks   Layups   2pt J's   3pters    FTs
Green, Jeff 22/22 60/87 49/119 32/84 82/107
% 0.690 0.412 0.381 0.766

Wallace, Jonathan 0 /0 34/54 20/52 61/130 57/62
% 0.630 0.385 0.469 0.919

Summers, DaJuan 12/12 27/62 18/45 35/106 75/96
% 0.435 0.400 0.330 0.781

Sapp, Jessie 3 /3 47/70 18/53 37/119 39/64
% 0.671 0.340 0.311 0.609

Ewing, Patrick 9 /9 12/25 11/24 13/27 21/39
% 0.480 0.458 0.481 0.538

Hibbert, Roy 44/44 78/119 36/68 0 /0 91/132
% 0.655 0.529 0.689

Macklin, Vernon 6 /6 25/32 4 /7 0 /0 10/22
% 0.781 0.571 0.455

Rivers, Jeremiah 0 /0 6 /11 6 /13 4 /16 3 /6
% 0.545 0.462 0.250 0.500

Crawford, Tyler 0 /0 6 /7 0 /4 14/38 2 /4
% 0.857 0.000 0.368 0.500

Egerson, Marc 0 /0 18/26 4 /13 7 /27 26/35
% 0.692 0.308 0.259 0.743

Some quick thought - I'll try to flush this out tomorrow:
  • The conventional wisdom is that players tend to shoot 2-pt jumpers at about the same percentage as 3-pt jumpers, and therefore should maximize the latter in lieu of the former. While most player stat lines don't have enough shots in both categories to give meaningful comparisons, three players from 2006-7 may have enough of each shot (Green, Wallace, Sapp). Green and Sapp look to have roughly the same shooting percentage, while Wallace actually shot better from behind the arc.
  • Wallace, Sapp and Summers all reduced the ratio of 2pt/3pt jumpers from 2006-7 to 2007-8, which is the statistically correct thing to do.
  • Speaking of Summers, his improvement from last season to this season is often cited as the key to Hoya success. If he could improve his shooting percentages on layups and 2-pt jumpers to what Green shot in 2006-7, he would make that leap.
  • I have no record of a missed dunk in 2 seasons. I'm beginning to wonder if missed dunks is even an option with the play-by-play system. Anyone remember a missed dunk?

6 comments:

  1. There was a game last year where Summers missed one, if not two, dunks.

    ReplyDelete
  2. DaJuan Summers has definitely missed a couple of dunks. Those are the only ones I can think of off the top of my head, but I'm gonna say that the play-by-play calls that missed layup, and only calls it a 2-point dunk shot if it's good.

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  3. If its true that missed dunks are counted as layups then dunks should probably just be combined with layups for statistical purposes.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Thanks guys.

    Do either of you remember which game that was? I'd like to confirm that the p-b-p is actually wrong before making any changes in my retrieval.

    Also, I think there may be value in keeping dunks and layups separate, even if dunks are a make-only category. Since dunks are rarely missed in real-life, I'd rather keep them separate from layups/tip-ins, which seem to go in about 45-65% of the time, depending upon the player.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I think this was it:
    http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/recap?gid=200802270229

    ReplyDelete
  6. Interesting.

    Looking at the play-by-play, there are definitely two missed dunks listed in the 1st half - both for DaJuan Summers. Looks like I've got a bug.

    Thanks guys!

    ReplyDelete