Saturday, April 14, 2007

Analysis: Season Review, Pt. 1

With yesterday's announcement of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert submitting their names to the NBA for this year's draft (without signing with an agent) the predictable hysteria has broken out on HoyaTalk.

On with the stats.

I thought I'd post some player stats, breaking the season down into 3 sections: OOC (13 games, Nov. 11 - Dec. 30), BE regular season (16 games, Jan. 6 - Mar. 3) and post-season (8 games, Mar. 8 - 31).

Other than minutes per game, the stats presented here were also discussed in a previous post.

First, minutes per game:

Player OOC BE Post
Green 30.6 34.1 36.1
Sapp 30.9 34.2 33.3
Wallace 29.8 32.7 35.1
Hibbert 24.9 27.1 27.3
Summers 19.7 29.8 30.4
Ewing 8.1 16.1 19.9
Egerson 24.1 - -
Rivers 11.8 11.9 11.4
Macklin 11.0 8.7 4.0
Crawford 16.1 3.9 5.3
Spann 1.4 0.9 0.5
Dizdarevic 0.8 0.5 0.4
Izzo 0.6 0.3 0.3

A couple of points here:
  • I treat Did Not Play (DNP's) differently, depending upon whether they were due to coach's decision or injury/illness. A DNP-Coach's decision counts as a game with 0 minutes played. A DNP-Injury/illness does not count as a game, since the player is unavailable. Player availability is not always known, but I went from news reported by Barker Davis and/or Camille Powell. By my reckoning, the following players were unavailable for games this season (Macklin - 1; Crawford - 6; Rivers - 3). If anyone can confirm that Ewing missed the Duke game due to injury/illness, I'll change it, but for now, I have him listed as DNP-Coach's decision.
  • The transfer by Egerson, and resulting 24 min/game avaiable seems to have been mostly absorbed by Summers & Ewing, as you'd expect. Crawford's lost minutes don't seem to go to Rivers, as since the latter's minutes stay flat while Tyler has a big drop off. But this is due to their non-overlapping illness/injuries. In games where Tyler was unavailable, Rivers averaged 16+ minutes (here, I'm including the Duke game, where Crawford played the last few seconds as a 3-pt threat, but clearly wasn't at full strength). In games where Rivers was unavailable, Crawford averaged 18+ minutes.
  • Macklin's minutes showed a steady decline across the three parts of the season. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I'd suggest that he followed the same pattern that Egerson had last season. I'd expect to see more of him next year, even if the 2 juniors return.

Possessions Used:

Player OOC BE Post
Green 17.0% 23.2% 23.7%
Sapp 15.1% 17.3% 15.3%
Wallace 17.6% 16.7% 14.1%
Hibbert 12.6% 13.4% 13.3%
Summers 11.5% 15.1% 18.9%
Ewing 3.2% 6.3% 8.0%
Egerson 10.6% - -
Rivers 2.4% 4.3% 2.4%
Macklin 3.9% 1.9% 2.0%
Crawford 5.0% 1.2% 1.6%
Spann 0.5% 0.2% 0.2%
Dizdarevic 0.4% 0.4% 0.6%
Izzo 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

What's interesting here is that we can see that Egerson's lost possessions were taken up by Ewing, Summers and especially Green. What's also obvious is that, much like last year, the team had only 6 players likely to end a possession by the end of the season.

Available Possessions Used:

Just a reminder that this stat is the ratio of a player's possessions used over team possessions used while the player was on the floor. Since I'm not willing to go through the play-by-play by hand (and KenPom doesn't have HD box scores for all games played), it assumes that game pace is constant, an admittedly lousy assumption. An average player would use 20% of available possessions.

Player OOC BE Post
Green 22.2% 27.2% 26.3%
Sapp 19.5% 20.2% 18.3%
Wallace 23.6% 20.4% 16.0%
Hibbert 20.2% 19.7% 19.5%
Summers 23.4% 20.3% 24.8%
Ewing 15.7% 15.8% 16.2%
Egerson 17.6% - -
Rivers 10.6% 14.4% 8.4%
Macklin 15.2% 8.6% 19.9%
Crawford 20.2% 12.1% 14.0%
Spann 14.3% 8.9% 16.1%
Dizdarevic 19.3% 33.4% 63.5%
Izzo 23.7% 16.7% 0.0%

First, let me say "Hats off to Sead Dizdarevic!" That young man is not bashful. Otherwise, Wallace looks to have become more judicious as the season went along; his scoring average for the post-season was better than the season as a whole, as he took more than 1 extra 3-pt. (biased somewhat by the desperation 3s against OSU) and made more than half of them. Hibbert could have been a bit more aggressive, but perhaps was conscious of avoiding fouls. And Summers did his part to carry the team in the post-season, but his inconsistency (as to be expected from a freshman, and for a post on another day) was the wild-card that eventually caught up with the Hoyas (no, not Jeff Green's 5 FGA).

And for those of you curious, Jeff and Roy used up 48% of available possessions from this year. Last year, the 3 seniors (Bowman, Cook, Owens) used up 58% of available possessions.

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