I've included the Pomeroy rankings from 2012, because as Brian notes in this awesome article here, they are a very strong predictor of the year-end numbers. I haven't used the conference win predictions because there is a difference to my mind between the two [editor's note: this is Alan's gentle way of saying he doesn't believe them].
I'm not going to write up an analysis for now; draw your own conclusions.
1. Winning
Regular Season Conference Wins
Team 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Avg
1 Pitt 10 10 12 10 15 13 15 - 12.1
2 Lou - 6 12 14 16 11 12 - 11.8
3 Vill 11 14 9 9 13 13 9 - 11.1
4 Conn 13 14 6 13 15 7 9 - 11.0
5 Syr 11 7 10 9 11 15 12 - 10.7
6 Marq - 10 10 11 12 11 9 - 10.5
7 WVU 8 11 9 11 10 13 11 - 10.4
8 Gtown 8 10 13 15 7 10 10 - 10.4
9 ND 9 6 11 14 8 10 14 - 10.3
10 Cincy - 8 2 8 8 7 11 - 7.3
11 SHU 4 9 4 7 7 9 7 - 6.7
12 SJU 3 5 7 5 6 6 12 - 6.3
13 Prov 4 5 8 6 10 4 4 - 5.9
14 USF - 1 12 3 4 9 3 - 5.3
15 Rut 2 7 3 3 2 5 5 - 3.9
16 DeP - 5 9 6 0 1 1 - 3.7
Pomeroy Rank
Team 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Avg
1 Lou - 38 12 6 4 43 14 17 19.1
2 Pitt 22 12 13 21 5 31 4 50 19.8
3 Gtown 42 14 5 7 27 13 40 13 20.1
4 WVU 30 16 32 19 9 8 21 37 21.5
5 Syr 17 51 37 38 15 4 11 4 22.1
6 Conn 13 4 49 22 3 56 10 28 23.1
7 Marq - 28 38 11 19 33 32 18 25.6
8 Vill 4 7 19 43 14 21 33 64 25.6
9 ND 48 27 20 28 38 38 15 43 32.1
10 Cincy - 42 113 98 85 75 23 52 69.7
11 SHU 92 84 81 103 73 72 59 42 75.8
12 Prov 50 71 67 74 80 88 96 139 83.1
13 SJU 84 108 101 126 116 67 42 144 98.5
14 USF - 162 131 101 135 83 127 137 125.1
15 Rut 118 69 166 164 141 156 78 124 127.0
16 DeP - 82 46 95 198 172 202 152 135.3
Quick thoughts: The biggest difference between the two is probably 2012, as well as noting that there's only a small difference (less than one win) between 3rd and 9th in average conference wins. After that it could be schedule strength, under-performance in conference play, and/or luck.
a look at the offense and defense after the jump
2. Offense
Pomeroy Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Rank
Team 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Avg
1 Pitt 19 21 12 8 2 40 5 9 14.5
2 WVU 18 12 13 21 18 11 23 36 19.0
3 ND 51 6 10 22 19 6 3 43 20.0
4 Gtown 34 9 2 18 45 9 39 27 22.9
5 Syr 16 60 48 37 11 8 20 2 25.3
6 Marq - 31 49 24 9 22 22 22 25.6
7 Vill 12 11 36 61 22 12 24 42 27.5
8 Conn 26 3 126 17 15 89 16 12 38.0
9 Lou - 63 29 32 31 23 46 83 43.9
10 Prov 38 39 58 60 52 19 72 146 60.5
11 Cincy - 44 139 132 78 114 51 68 89.4
12 SHU 166 102 80 63 51 39 151 74 90.8
13 DeP - 47 59 47 191 210 168 91 116.1
14 Rut 81 55 198 253 241 154 85 151 152.3
15 SJU 162 245 150 215 181 98 52 124 153.4
16 USF - 267 168 108 184 106 157 191 168.7
3. Defense
Pomeroy Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Rank
Team 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Avg
1 Lou - 36 16 5 2 79 4 6 21.1
2 Conn 7 16 7 41 3 33 14 65 23.3
3 Syr 22 55 28 65 29 18 16 10 30.4
4 Gtown 66 38 20 6 22 47 58 15 34.0
5 Vill 4 17 18 34 15 62 55 114 39.9
6 Marq - 54 31 10 51 57 61 27 41.6
7 WVU 78 53 57 24 14 22 36 69 44.1
8 Pitt 38 12 26 54 35 26 25 170 48.3
9 SJU 34 15 74 50 77 51 44 171 64.5
10 Cincy - 62 98 72 104 59 18 56 67.0
11 ND 64 120 49 42 85 132 68 113 84.1
12 SHU 37 81 106 154 116 122 13 38 83.4
13 USF - 59 91 99 112 77 114 96 92.6
14 Rut 160 98 152 74 63 168 79 94 111.0
15 Prov 84 135 90 95 131 237 150 132 131.8
16 DeP - 130 40 173 213 119 243 245 166.1
There were only 16 league games through 2007 so just averaging the wins reduces the value of 2005, 2006, and 2007 seasons. 2007 Hoyas were 13-3 which is better than Louisville's 14-4 record the next season, but Louisville comes out better on your chart.
ReplyDeleteTrue. I may be too lazy to change it. I could use winning %, but I like the look of the raw numbers better. I probably should add in BET wins/losses as well.
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