Analysis: GU 57, Ball State 48

Well, at least that's over with.

Georgetown went into a no-win situation in Muncie tonight, and Hoya fans were wondering if they'd really have no win at the end of the night before the team made enough FTs in the last minute to secure the game.

Here are the numbers (if you only look at the 1st half, they're actually quite nice):

	Offense				Defense
	1st Half	2nd Half	Total		1st Half	2nd Half	Total
Pace	26	30	56
Eff.	120.7	86.7	102.4		70.1	100.0	86.2
eFG%	70.5%	39.1%	54.4%		33.3%	48.1%	40.6%
TO%	23.4%	20.0%	21.6%		15.6%	13.3%	14.4%
OR%	30.0%	30.0%	30.0%		33.3%	18.8%	27.0%
FTA					11.1%	23.1%	17.0%
FTM	0.0%	34.8%	17.8%
Assist Rate	84.6%	50.0%	71.4%		25.0%	60.0%	44.4%
Block Rate	0.0%	8.3%	5.0%		12.5%	35.7%	23.3%
Steal Rate	0.0%	6.7%	3.6%		11.7%	10.0%	10.8%

Slowest pace so far this year (56 possessions, after 62 and 64 to start the year). Once you've stopped hyperventilating about the final score, go back and take a look at the William & Mary breakdown, and you'll see a very similar set of numbers, except this time it was bad rebounding in the 1st half and hot opponent shooting in the 2nd half. As someone mentioned during HoyaChat, this game was also bit like the James Madison game played two years ago to the day.

  Georgetown vs Ball State  
  11/21/07 7:05 p.m. at Muncie, Ind. (Worthen Arena)  
  Final score: Georgetown 57, Ball State 48
     
  Georgetown              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF  
  Summers, DaJuan        29:54  + 11 11/48 3 -6  0 -2  5 -6  8 /33 3 /14 2 /45 3 /43 0 /25 1 /21 8 /28  1   
  Ewing, Patrick         24:42  + 1  6 /29 3 -3  0 -1  0 -0  4 /30 0 /9  0 /33 1 /33 1 /16 4 /21 1 /21  1   
  Hibbert, Roy           28:39  + 2  16/39 7 -10 0 -0  2 -7  10/33 1 /8  0 /42 0 /41 4 /22 2 /22 5 /27  2   
  Wallace, Jonathan      24:17  + 8  3 /40 0 -0  1 -6  0 -0  6 /30 2 /13 0 /38 1 /38 0 /20 0 /22 0 /25  1   
  Sapp, Jessie           29:25  + 0  11/40 1 -1  3 -9  0 -0  10/32 4 /10 2 /40 3 /40 2 /20 0 /21 2 /23  1   
  Macklin, Vernon        11:07  + 4  0 /15 0 -0  0 -0  0 -2  0 /12 1 /6  0 /12 0 /13 0 /8  0 /7  1 /9   1   
  Wright, Chris          16:33  - 1  0 /18 0 -0  0 -2  0 -0  2 /17 3 /7  1 /20 1 /20 0 /12 1 /11 3 /15  0   
  Rivers, Jeremiah       16:26  + 11 4 /26 0 -0  1 -1  1 -2  1 /19 0 /8  0 /21 0 /22 0 /13 0 /13 3 /17  1   
  Freeman, Austin        15:13  + 8  6 /26 0 -0  2 -3  0 -0  3 /15 1 /7  0 /20 2 /21 0 /14 0 /10 2 /18  1   
  Crawford, Tyler        03:44  + 1  0 /4  0 -0  0 -1  0 -0  1 /4  0 /2  1 /4  1 /4  0 /0  0 /2  1 /2   1   
  TOTALS                 40:00       57    14-20 7 -25 8 -17    45 15/21 6 /55 12/55 7 /30 9 /30 27/37  10  
                                           0.700 0.280 0.471       0.714 0.109 0.218 0.233 0.300 0.730      
    
  Ball State              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF  
  PERRY, Malik           30:16  + 1  8 /43 3 -5  0 -0  2 -2  5 /37 1 /13 1 /42 3 /40 0 /15 4 /23 4 /23  3   
  GILES, Rob             26:56  - 13 0 /29 0 -2  0 -3  0 -0  5 /37 0 /12 1 /38 1 /38 1 /14 2 /25 3 /17  3   
  GOINS, Melvin          36:36  - 5  11/43 3 -10 1 -4  2 -2  14/49 2 /12 0 /51 1 /51 0 /17 3 /34 4 /29  0   
  FRAZIER, Laron         28:06  - 7  6 /33 0 -2  2 -5  0 -0  7 /34 3 /10 0 /41 1 /38 0 /16 0 /23 2 /25  1   
  STOVALL, Peyton        37:14  - 9  16/46 5 -7  2 -5  0 -3  12/51 2 /10 0 /52 0 /53 0 /19 1 /36 3 /28  4   
  LAMPLEY, Brandon       11:27  - 12 0 /13 0 -0  0 -1  0 -0  1 /15 0 /5  0 /14 2 /15 0 /6  0 /11 0 /6   1   
  TWYMAN, Deontay        13:33  + 4  7 /20 0 -1  2 -4  1 -2  5 /19 0 /4  0 /18 0 /20 0 /5  0 /14 2 /14  3   
  MCLEMORE, Rashaun      15:52  - 4  0 /13 0 -3  0 -1  0 -0  4 /23 0 /6  0 /19 0 /20 0 /8  0 /19 1 /8   0   
  TOTALS                 40:00       48    11-30 7 -23 5 -9     53 8 /18 2 /55 8 /55 1 /20 10/37 21/30  15  
                                           0.367 0.304 0.556       0.444 0.036 0.145 0.050 0.270 0.700      
     
  Efficiency: Georgetown 1.036, Ball State 0.873
  eFG%: Georgetown 0.544, Ball State 0.406
  Substitutions: Georgetown 28, Ball State 28
     
  2-pt Shot Selection:  
  Dunks: Georgetown 6-6, Ball State 0-0
  Layups/Tips: Georgetown 6-10, Ball State 8-10
  Jumpers: Georgetown 2-4, Ball State 3-20

Edited to add: In case anyone's interested, here are the updated Offensive Efficiencies (speaking of regression to the mean).

	Player Name	O Rat
	Sapp, Jessie	118.6
	Summers, DaJuan	96.6
	Wallace, Jonathan	129.3
	Hibbert, Roy	119.1
	Ewing, Patrick	107.5
	Macklin, Vernon	118.1
	Rivers, Jeremiah	113.1
	Freeman, Austin	90.1
	Wright, Chris	67.6

On a more positive note, the gentleman on the left has announced his intention to attend Georgetown in 2009. Hollis Thompson is purported to be both an excellent basketball player and excellent student at Loyola of Los Angeles (yeah, he goes to a Jesuit high school), and his verbal commitment has Hoya fans atwitter.

News: Mid-week Roundup

Thanksgiving week has been slow, but here are a few items:

• Georgetown travels to Muncie to take on Ball State tomorrow. Despite the unsavory goings-on this summer, the coaches and both teams' fans seem far more focused on the game. Hopefully, Pat Forde can busy himself with the states of Kentucky and Louisville basketball instead.

• Speaking of Louisville, the loss of David Padgett for at least 10 weeks will be a big test for the Cardinal players and Coach Pitino. Padgett quietly lead the nation in Offensive Efficiency last year (134.3, using 17.8% possessions in 58.9% minutes). To put him in Hoya context, Padgett's offensive value last year was roughly equivalent to the 2006 version of Darrel Owens, obviously with a different skill-set. Defensively-challenged Derrick Caracter and offensively-limited Terrance Farley will be nominally asked to take up the slack, but I think it's much more likely that Pitino will revert to what he knows best, namely going small and having his team take an enormous number of 3-pt shots.

• While the amount of fawning I normally direct toward Ken Pomeroy and John Gasaway can be sickening, I have to point out a couple of posts on their website:
• Gasaway finally posted his Big East Preview (Overview, Part 1, Part 2). You can read it for yourselves, but I just wanted to note that his main stipulations for Hoya success this season (improved def. rebounding and fewer turnovers) gibe with my own view. Both are better so far, but it's only 2 games in.

• Pomeroy posted a strange article today about rating coaching performance; the premise of the article (that he can quantitatively evaluate coaching) is based upon the idea that all things regress toward the mean over time. Specifically, bad teams get better and good teams get worse the next season, so that "teams get pulled towards the .500 mark over time." This is based upon work Dean Oliver did with NBA teams, and Pomeroy applies this to college teams (with respect to their conference foes, not all of Div I). This strikes me as counter-intuitive for a couple of reasons. Certain teams are historically good (e.g. Duke, UNC, Kansas) or bad (e.g. Rutgers, Florida State, Colorado), at least in the short- to mid-term, and use this as a recruiting advantage within their conference. More importantly, the high turnover of talent in college seems likely to swamp almost any other effect. To this end, Dan Hanner (HP's new favorite blogger) has put together his own system ranking coaches, which is more interested in incoming talent and post-season results. It provides a nice alternative take to Pomeroy, who hopefully will come back to this idea of coaching evaluation again. Edited to add: Sure enough, Hanner chimes in on Pomeroy's article.
  

• I came across a great collection of Georgetown-related clips on YouTube. Worth a look.

Finally, Ray Floriani is back. He sent me an e-mail yesterday with his tempo-free look at the Memphis-UConn 2k Classic Final; G'town will see both teams relatively early in the season.

NEW YORK CITY – The 2K Classic final turned out to be a gut check for both teams. Memphis stopped UCONN 81-70 in a hard fought contest at Madison Square Garden. The third ranked Tigers sprinted out of the gate and built an 18-3 lead. Slowly, possession by possession, UCONN battled back. The Huskies took a 41-40 lead into the locker room at the half.

The second half saw a tightly contested affair with the Tigers gradually pulling away over the final eight minutes.

• eFG%: Neither team opted for threes (Memphis 3 of 13 and UCONN 1 of 5). The significance here lies in two point domination as Memphis, between size and penetration, was effective in the paint.
• OR%: Both clubs hit the boards hard but allowing 48% of the possible rebounds to be gathered by the offense was just too much for UCONN to overcome.
• TO Rate: Close and no shock as both teams were more than willing to push the ball.
• FT Rate: UCONN’s ability to get to the line greatly aided the Huskies first half comeback. It also contributed to coach Cal’s first half technical. Basically, UCONN began running their offense and boxing out on the boards. These two factors contributed greatly to their ability to draw fouls. Actually this figure, though high, keeps in line with the three UCONN games prior to the final. Over those first three games the Huskies ft rate was 36%, which shows a good ability to get shots, or rebounding position, that can get them to the line.

	UConn		Memphis
Pace	80		80
Eff.	87.5		101.2
eFG%	40.6%		48.5%
TO%	21.3%		21.3%
OR%	18.8%		48.6%
FT Rate	71.7%		30.4%

Stats courtesy of KenPom.com

Final score: Georgetown 69, Ball State 54

  Ball State vs Georgetown  
  11/27/06 7:30 at Verizon Center  
  Final score: Georgetown 69, Ball State 54
     
  Ball State              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF  
  ROLLIN, Micah          31:06  - 10 10/38 5 -8  0 -0  0 -2  8 /38 1 /12 2 /46 1 /48 0 /27 0 /23 3 /21  2   
  HORTON, Steve          29:25  - 14 2 /44 1 -3  0 -1  0 -0  4 /39 4 /16 2 /47 1 /47 0 /27 0 /22 1 /19  0   
  STOVALL, Peyton        23:15  - 6  9 /30 3 -4  1 -1  0 -0  5 /25 1 /8  0 /32 2 /33 0 /16 1 /16 0 /11  2   
  PERRYMAN, Jalon        18:12  - 4  3 /26 0 -4  1 -1  0 -0  5 /19 0 /8  1 /27 3 /28 0 /14 0 /12 0 /9   0   
  NEWELL, Anthony        23:18  - 10 10/31 3 -8  1 -3  1 -4  11/31 0 /8  0 /37 2 /37 1 /23 1 /22 5 /15  3   
  AMES, Chris            27:26  - 15 8 /39 2 -2  0 -0  4 -5  2 /37 1 /13 2 /44 0 /44 0 /21 2 /23 1 /17  4   
  PEYTON, D'Andre        14:19  - 4  2 /19 1 -4  0 -0  0 -0  4 /17 0 /6  1 /20 0 /20 0 /12 1 /11 1 /10  2   
  MILLS, Skip            28:54  - 7  9 /39 1 -7  2 -3  1 -2  10/39 3 /12 3 /44 2 /46 1 /23 0 /27 2 /19  1   
  McLEMORE, Rashaun      04:05  - 5  1 /4  0 -1  0 -0  1 -2  1 /5  0 /1  0 /8  0 /7  0 /2  0 /4  1 /4   2   
  TOTALS                 40:00       54    16-41 5 -9  7 -15    50 10/21 11/61 13/62 2 /33 8 /31 16/25  16  
                                           0.390 0.556 0.467       0.476 0.180 0.210 0.061 0.258 0.640      
    
  Georgetown              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF  
  Wallace, Jonathan      26:40  + 9  5 /43 2 -5  0 -3  1 -1  8 /31 3 /13 0 /39 3 /38 0 /25 0 /17 3 /19  1   
  Summers, DaJuan        24:06  + 25 12/47 2 -5  1 -1  5 -7  6 /32 0 /14 1 /39 3 /38 1 /22 0 /17 0 /21  2   
  Sapp, Jessie           31:31  + 21 6 /61 1 -5  1 -3  1 -2  8 /40 8 /21 2 /47 0 /48 0 /33 0 /18 3 /20  2   
  Green, Jeff            33:16  + 24 14/63 3 -4  2 -2  2 -2  6 /42 4 /18 2 /49 3 /49 2 /33 0 /20 6 /23  0   
  Hibbert, Roy           20:20  + 11 9 /37 3 -4  0 -0  3 -5  4 /22 1 /9  0 /30 0 /32 2 /18 3 /12 4 /15  3   
  Macklin, Vernon        16:46  - 2  10/22 5 -7  0 -0  0 -0  7 /21 0 /4  0 /27 0 /25 0 /21 1 /12 0 /15  1   
  Izzo, Kenny            01:01  - 5  0 /0  0 -0  0 -0  0 -0  0 /1  0 /0  0 /3  1 /3  0 /2  0 /1  0 /2   1   
  Rivers, Jeremiah       17:19  + 11 3 /32 0 -0  1 -2  0 -0  2 /18 4 /10 1 /26 2 /26 1 /17 0 /9  2 /18  0   
  SPANN, Octavius        01:12  - 8  0 /0  0 -0  0 -0  0 -0  0 /1  0 /0  0 /4  1 /3  0 /4  0 /1  0 /3   0   
  Ewing, Patrick         05:47  - 5  3 /9  0 -0  1 -1  0 -0  1 /6  0 /1  0 /12 0 /12 1 /10 0 /5  1 /8   0   
  Egerson, Marc          20:50  + 2  7 /31 2 -2  1 -3  0 -0  5 /25 0 /10 0 /30 2 /28 0 /16 0 /12 2 /13  2   
  Dizdarevic, Sead       01:12  - 8  0 /0  0 -1  0 -0  0 -0  1 /1  0 /0  0 /4  0 /3  0 /4  0 /1  0 /3   1   
  TOTALS                 40:00       69    18-33 7 -15 12-17    48 20/25 6 /62 15/61 7 /41 9 /25 23/31  13  
                                           0.545 0.467 0.706       0.800 0.097 0.246 0.171 0.360 0.742      
     
  Efficiency: Georgetown 1.131, Ball State 0.871
  eFG%: Georgetown 0.594, Ball State 0.470
  Substitutions: Georgetown 25, Ball State 34
     
  2-pt Shot Selection:  
  Dunks: Georgetown 4-4, Ball State 0-0
  Layups/Tips: Georgetown 12-19, Ball State 12-20
  Jumpers: Georgetown 2-10, Ball State 4-21