Thursday, March 10, 2011

BET log5 predictions, after Round 2

Here's the updated log5 analysis of the BET tourney, after the 2nd round is in the books.

Cincinnati is the biggest beneficiary of the action thus far, with their odds up 4.1%. Still, the top four seeds are the four likeliest to win, and their odds are mostly unchanged. Note that this calculation, unlike the one done by Basketball Prospectus does not give St. John's any home court advantage; perhaps it should.

Seed  Team     2nd Rnd   Quarters   Semis   Finals    Champ      Orig
9     UConn      100       100      26.5     10.6      4.5        2.1
16    DePaul     out       out       out      out      out        0.00002
8     G'town      -        out       out      out      out        2.4
1     Pitt        -         -       73.5     47.3     31.7       31.7

12    SHU        out       out       out      out      out        0.3
13    Rutgers    100       out       out      out      out       0.03
5     St.J's      -        100      32.4     10.0      4.1        2.7
4     Cuse        -         -       67.6     32.1     18.9       19.8

10    Nova       out       out       out      out      out        2.3
15    USF        100       out       out      out      out        0.001
7     Cinci       -        100      47.6     24.8     10.1        6.0
2     N.Dame      -         -       52.4     28.6     12.3       12.6

11    Marq       100       100      36.4     13.8      4.3        1.4
14    Provy      out       out       out      out      out        0.01
6     WVU         -        out       out      out      out        5.2
3     L'ville     -         -       63.6     32.8     14.3       13.5
Editor's note: These are the percentage probabilities a team will make it to that round, based on KenPom ratings through Tuesday's games (ratings through Wednesday were unavailable at of 9:30 AM CT).
"100" means that team did advance to the round, a "-" means the team had a bye to that round.

1 comment:

  1. I wouldn't sweat a home court advantage for the Johnnies today versus Syracuse - should probably be a fairly even split.

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