Sunday, November 18, 2007

Analysis: Individual Stats after 2 Games

Since Pomeroy hasn't posted individual stats yet on his site (as of this writing), I thought I'd put up some numbers after the 1st two games. Caveats:
  • SMALL SAMPLE SIZE: only 2 games played, so the significance of these stats is sketchy, at best (there's a reason why KenPom doesn't have his posted).
  • METHODOLOGY: I make no warranty on these numbers. I hope I've done all of the calcs correctly, but I've certainly made a math error or two before. I do know that Pomeroy and I get slightly different numbers for team stats, due to differences in how we calculate team possessions. I use the method listed on his website, but he is apparently using something else these days. The differences there are negligible, however, and hopefully that's also true for these individual stats. I did make a change from the original formulae that Dean Oliver published for calculating possessions and ORatings, but I think Pomeroy would have made the same correction (it involves the factor to convert FTs to possessions used).
Offense
## Player Name % Min
% Poss
O Rat PPWS eFG%
OReb% TO% A Rate
21 Sapp, Jessie 65.0%
27.8%
130.7 1.47 75.0%
2.4% 21.9% 19.6%
3 Summers, DaJuan 61.3%
17.7%
98.2 1.08 54.2%
5.1% 22.0% 1.7%
2 Wallace, Jonathan 60.0%
19.1%
154.6 1.44 73.3%
2.6% 6.9% 15.0%
55 Hibbert, Roy 57.5%
34.7%
119.4 1.22 60.0%
19.0% 11.9% 2.5%
33 Ewing, Patrick 56.3%
12.3%
93.8 1.00 50.0%
8.3% 34.5% 5.2%
1 Macklin, Vernon 50.0%
10.8%
132.2 1.00 50.0%
12.5% 0.0% 2.0%
5 Rivers, Jeremiah 48.8%
6.8%
87.3 0.75 37.5%
0.0% 23.9% 3.9%
15 Freeman, Austin 43.8%
22.3%
85.1 0.92 46.2%
3.6% 24.3% 2.7%
4 Wright, Chris 37.5%
29.8%
66.6 0.91 40.0%
4.2% 42.6% 3.1%


Defense
## Player Name
DReb% Bl Rate St Rate
21 Sapp, Jessie
14.3% 0.0% 1.2%
3 Summers, DaJuan
11.1% 2.6% 2.6%
2 Wallace, Jonathan
2.8% 0.0% 2.6%
55 Hibbert, Roy
10.3% 16.8% 1.4%
33 Ewing, Patrick
4.5% 2.9% 4.2%
1 Macklin, Vernon
6.8% 9.7% 1.6%
5 Rivers, Jeremiah
5.2% 0.0% 1.6%
15 Freeman, Austin
9.7% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Wright, Chris
11.3% 0.0% 4.2%

Quick comments:
  • I cut off players with less than 20% of available minutes played (sorry, Messrs. Crawford, Wattad and Jansen).
  • Sapp has been using a lot more possessions than last season (27.8 vs. 18.7), but thanks to his hot outside shooting (5-9 3pt), this has been a good thing. He may be making his case for taking up the slack from Jeff Green's departure. He won't continue to shoot this well, but his turnovers should come down a bit as well. He's also leading the team in defensive rebounding, which won't keep up.
  • Summers is starting off the season a bit like last season, making turnovers without assists to go along. Otherwise, he's not using as many possessions as last year, but is otherwise playing just as you'd expect. Frankly, I'm most interested in seeing his defense improve this season.
  • Wallace can't keep this up. It's just not possible. It's not his shooting (6-10 3pt, 2-5 2pt) that is so extraordinary, but his lack of turnovers that have his ORating so high. Last season, Wallace turned it over on 24.8% of the possessions he used, worst on the team other than Rivers. Of the ~15 possessions that ended due to Jon so far this season, only one was from a turnover. I'll be thrilled if he can just keep his TO Rate below 15%, more than double where he's at now.
  • For all those who've clamored for 3 seasons for the guards to pound it inside to Hibbert, you're finally getting your wish. He's shooting 60% from the floor (15-25 2pts.), which is actually down from last year, and he's still making great decisions (only 12% TO Rate), cleaning up the offensive glass and protecting the paint (17% block rate!).
  • Ewing has 3 turnovers and is 0-2 from 3pt. Otherwise, he's doing exactly what you'd want. I'm not worried, as he's only played 45 minutes (small sample size, people).
  • Warning: TVBP (thinly-veiled brag post). I said last season that Macklin is making the case for more playing time with his tempo-free offensive stats. Good old Vern is not letting me down with no turnovers, strong offensive rebounding and mostly smart shooting (4-7 2pt.; 0-1 3-pt (!?)). If he just leaves the outside shooting to his teammates and pounds the defensive glass a bit harder, he'll be fine. His % Poss needs to come up, but that may be more difficult.
  • Rivers is still struggling with his shooting, but he's taking care of the ball a lot better than last season. He gets his minutes because of his defense anyway (see Gene Smith), and he's only taken 4 shots so far, so there's no reason to worry here.
  • The freshmen are playing like, well, freshmen. Freeman is struggling from the outside (2-8 3-pts.) and Wright is turning the ball over far too much (6 TOs in 14 possessions used). Frankly, I expected no better, and hope that they can continue to get quality minutes so they can develop in time for conference (and post-season) play.

Thursday, November 15, 2007

Analysis: Georgetown 74, Michigan 52

Well, I had computer problems all night, so I didn't get to watch the game on ESPN360, nor listen to Dr. Chvotkin, nor read along in HoyaChat. Instead, all I can do is read the box score and the recaps as they come in. Looks like it was over about halfway through the 1st half (GU 28, Mich 7, 11:28 1st half).

Anyway, let's run the numbers:


Offense
Defense

1st Half 2nd Half Total
1st Half 2nd Half Total
Pace 31 33 64











Eff. 137.7 95.1 115.9
60.8 101.3 81.5








eFG% 61.4% 46.8% 54.5%
35.2% 46.7% 41.2%
TO% 12.8% 21.5% 17.2%
28.8% 15.3% 21.9%
OR% 47.1% 42.1% 44.4%
25.0% 30.0% 27.5%
FTA



3.7% 30.0% 17.5%
FTM 0.0% 6.5% 3.0%











Assist Rate 61.1% 53.8% 58.1%
50.0% 15.4% 28.6%
Block Rate 4.2% 8.7% 6.4%
18.8% 21.7% 20.5%
Steal Rate 6.4% 6.1% 6.3%
16.0% 3.1% 9.4%


I'll try to put out something cogent together this weekend.

Edited: I changed the block & assist rates to match Pomeroy's tables.

  MICH vs Georgetown  
11/15/07 7:30 pm at Verizon Center
Final score: Georgetown 74, MICH 52

MICH Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF
Harris, Manny 30:56 - 29 13/34 4 -10 1 -4 2 -2 14/42 0 /9 1 /50 3 /49 0 /34 0 /30 4 /26 1
Coleman, Ron 29:28 - 25 0 /32 0 -3 0 -2 0 -0 5 /41 2 /13 0 /47 1 /48 0 /31 2 /29 2 /25 0
Gibson, Zack 18:15 - 18 2 /23 1 -3 0 -1 0 -0 4 /25 0 /9 0 /29 0 /30 0 /20 0 /15 1 /13 0
Sims, DeShawn 19:31 - 15 1 /23 0 -3 0 -1 1 -2 4 /25 0 /9 1 /30 5 /32 0 /20 1 /16 0 /14 3
Grady, Kelvin 32:00 - 24 16/41 5 -7 2 -3 0 -0 10/44 3 /9 1 /50 2 /52 0 /38 1 /30 2 /27 0
Lee, C.J 06:07 + 2 1 /7 0 -1 0 -1 1 -2 2 /11 0 /3 0 /11 0 /11 0 /7 0 /9 2 /9 0
Morris, K'Len 08:34 + 2 3 /17 0 -0 1 -1 0 -0 1 /12 1 /6 0 /13 1 /13 0 /11 0 /6 1 /5 0
Merritt, David 02:23 + 5 0 /5 0 -0 0 -1 0 -0 1 /5 0 /2 0 /4 0 /5 0 /4 0 /3 0 /5 0
Wright, Anthony 20:29 - 7 7 /29 2 -4 1 -3 0 -0 7 /32 0 /9 1 /34 0 /33 0 /27 0 /23 0 /22 0
Shepherd, Jevohn 10:32 + 3 4 /20 2 -5 0 -1 0 -2 6 /16 0 /6 0 /17 0 /17 0 /16 1 /10 2 /11 1
Udoh, Ekpe 21:45 - 4 5 /29 2 -3 0 -0 1 -2 3 /32 0 /9 0 /35 2 /35 3 /27 2 /24 3 /23 1
TOTALS 40:00 52 16-39 5 -18 5 -10 57 6 /21 4 /64 15/65 3 /47 11/39 20/36 6
0.410 0.278 0.500 0.286 0.062 0.231 0.064 0.282 0.556

Georgetown Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF
Wallace, Jonathan 15:38 + 16 8 /33 1 -3 2 -3 0 -0 6 /28 4 /11 0 /24 0 /24 0 /12 1 /14 2 /15 0
Summers, DaJuan 25:43 + 19 5 /52 1 -4 1 -2 0 -2 6 /42 1 /20 2 /42 1 /40 1 /25 2 /21 2 /24 0
Sapp, Jessie 19:09 + 29 12/42 3 -4 2 -2 0 -0 6 /27 5 /13 0 /31 1 /31 0 /18 0 /9 6 /22 2
Ewing, Patrick 16:33 + 22 6 /38 3 -3 0 -1 0 -0 4 /26 3 /13 0 /27 2 /29 0 /14 2 /10 1 /16 0
Hibbert, Roy 18:21 + 10 12/34 6 -14 0 -0 0 -0 14/32 0 /9 1 /31 2 /31 3 /15 5 /17 1 /15 2
Macklin, Vernon 21:39 + 12 8 /40 4 -6 0 -1 0 -0 7 /34 1 /12 1 /34 0 /33 3 /24 3 /19 3 /24 2
Wright, Chris 21:22 - 5 10/29 1 -7 2 -2 2 -2 9 /35 0 /9 2 /39 3 /37 0 /23 1 /24 5 /24 2
Rivers, Jeremiah 22:54 + 9 3 /44 0 -1 1 -1 0 -0 2 /38 2 /17 0 /34 0 /33 0 /23 0 /21 0 /17 1
Jansen, Bryon 01:02 - 3 0 /0 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0 0 /2 0 /0 0 /3 0 /2 0 /2 0 /2 0 /2 0
Freeman, Austin 22:35 + 9 10/39 2 -4 2 -5 0 -0 9 /37 1 /12 0 /35 2 /35 0 /25 1 /22 2 /22 3
Crawford, Tyler 12:12 - 5 0 /17 0 -1 0 -1 0 -0 2 /22 1 /7 0 /20 0 /20 0 /11 1 /15 3 /11 2
Wattad, Omar 02:52 - 3 0 /2 0 -0 0 -1 0 -0 1 /7 0 /1 0 /5 0 /5 1 /3 0 /6 0 /3 0
TOTALS 40:00 74 21-47 10-19 2 -4 66 18/31 6 /65 12/64 8 /39 16/36 28/39 14
0.447 0.526 0.500 0.581 0.092 0.188 0.205 0.444 0.718

Efficiency: Georgetown 1.156, MICH 0.800
eFG%: Georgetown 0.545, MICH 0.412
Substitutions: Georgetown 26, MICH 25

2-pt Shot Selection:
Dunks: Georgetown 6-6, MICH 1-1
Layups/Tips: Georgetown 13-25, MICH 7-16
Jumpers: Georgetown 2-16, MICH 8-22

Saturday, November 10, 2007

Analysis: GU vs. William & Mary

A new season began today at noon at the Verizon Center, with Georgetown taking on William and Mary.


Looking back at last year, Georgetown did a lot of things well, but there were a few glaring weaknesses.

On offense, turnovers (22.0% of all offensive possessions ended with a turnover, ranking 213 out of 336) were a problem that cropped up throughout the season, with the worst example the home game against Villanova on Jan 8th, where 35% of the Hoyas possessions were lost to TOs. Steals (11.3% of off. poss. ended in a steal [276/336]), the worst kind of turnover to make,* were also a recurring issue, most notably in the Final Four loss to OSU - 13.5% of off. poss. ended in a steal that game. Despite this, the team had the 2nd most efficient offense (adj. by KenPom) in college basketball, thanks to absurdly high 2-pt% (2nd) eFG% (4th) and OR % (8th), so these criticisms should be taken with that context.
[*I have no basis for this statement, but I believe that if you broke down possession efficiency after turnovers into steals and non-steals, you'd find a higher efficiency after steals, due to points off of fast breaks. Hopefully someone has already done this analysis and can either verify or refute this statement, as I don't think I have the kind of database to do the work myself.]

On defensive, rebounding (33.9% of available rebounds on defense were lost to the opponent [191/336]) and not enough turnovers (19.3% [267/336]) and steals (8.7% [258/336]) were the problems. Here, JTIIIs "switch-everything" defensive strategy may be partially to blame, leaving the bigs outside and the guards inside too often. Of course, that defense also allowed the 15th and 8th lowest 2-pt % and 3-pt %, respectively, and this benefit can be argued to be worth the cost - the defense was the 20th most stingy (by adj. efficiency) in basketball.


Returning to today's game, early hot shooting by the Tribe and late poor rebounding by the Hoyas kept the game close for the 1st 32:00, before big Roy Hibbert was able to put the game away with a number of hookers in the lane.

Let's run the numbers:


Offense
Defense

1st
2nd Total
1st 2nd Total
Pace 32 31 62











Eff. 110.9 107.7 109.3
95.0 75.1 85.2








eFG% 53.8% 65.9% 59.4%
56.3% 34.4% 43.8%
TO% 19.0% 26.1% 22.5%
22.2% 13.1% 17.7%
OR% 31.3% 16.7% 25.0%
14.3% 30.4% 24.3%
FTA



20.8% 6.3% 12.5%
FTM 26.9% 18.2% 22.9%











Assist Rate 45.5% 53.8% 50.0%
54.5% 77.8% 65.0%
Block Rate 11.1% 0.0% 4.5%
8.3% 27.3% 17.4%
Steal Rate 6.3% 9.8% 8.0%
12.7% 9.8% 11.3%


See Ken Pomeroy's blog for an explanation of these numbers



  William & Mary vs Georgetown  
11/10/07 12:00 pm at Verizon Center
Final score: Georgetown 68, William & Mary 53

William & Mary Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF
Schneider, David 37:42 - 18 14/50 1 -4 4 -8 0 -0 12/53 4 /14 2 /57 4 /59 0 /20 3 /35 4 /25 0
Mann, Nathan 29:24 - 5 8 /43 1 -2 2 -9 0 -0 11/41 2 /13 1 /45 0 /45 0 /14 2 /26 5 /19 1
Kisielius, Laimis 34:36 - 20 16/46 5 -7 1 -7 3 -4 14/48 3 /11 1 /52 3 /54 0 /19 1 /32 1 /23 3
Stein, Peter 25:05 + 1 3 /40 1 -4 0 -0 1 -3 4 /37 2 /14 0 /39 2 /42 0 /12 0 /23 1 /17 4
Darnell, Chris 29:40 - 19 2 /35 1 -3 0 -0 0 -0 3 /39 1 /12 0 /48 1 /46 0 /16 1 /27 5 /19 2
Hess, Steven 01:37 - 3 0 /0 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0 0 /1 0 /0 0 /3 1 /2 0 /0 0 /1 0 /1 0
Smith, Alex 16:25 - 10 5 /18 1 -2 1 -4 0 -0 6 /24 0 /5 0 /26 1 /23 1 /12 1 /17 2 /12 3
Barnett, Marcus 00:40 + 0 0 /0 0 -0 0 -1 0 -0 1 /1 0 /0 0 /2 0 /1 0 /1 0 /1 1 /1 0
Carrabine, Kyle 14:04 - 11 3 /15 0 -0 1 -4 0 -0 4 /20 1 /5 0 /22 0 /22 0 /10 0 /14 0 /13 1
Sumner, Danny 10:47 + 10 2 /18 1 -1 0 -0 0 -0 1 /16 0 /6 1 /16 0 /16 0 /6 1 /9 0 /10 0
TOTALS 40:00 53 11-23 9 -33 4 -7 56 13/20 5 /62 12/62 1 /22 9 /37 21/28 14
0.478 0.273 0.571 0.650 0.081 0.194 0.045 0.243 0.750

Georgetown Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF
Wallace, Jonathan 32:55 + 19 15/63 1 -2 4 -7 1 -2 9 /38 4 /17 2 /52 1 /50 0 /20 0 /20 0 /32 1
Summers, DaJuan 22:22 + 16 10/48 1 -1 2 -5 2 -2 6 /28 0 /12 0 /35 2 /36 0 /14 0 /17 6 /22 4
Sapp, Jessie 32:17 + 11 18/56 3 -5 3 -7 3 -5 12/40 6 /14 1 /48 4 /50 0 /18 1 /23 5 /28 2
Ewing, Patrick 28:13 + 4 0 /45 0 -1 0 -1 0 -0 2 /31 0 /15 3 /43 1 /43 1 /21 1 /19 2 /24 0
Hibbert, Roy 28:09 + 15 23/56 9 -11 0 -0 5 -8 11/33 1 /10 0 /44 2 /44 3 /17 2 /17 6 /29 2
Macklin, Vernon 18:20 + 3 0 /22 0 -1 0 -0 0 -0 1 /23 0 /9 0 /27 0 /28 0 /7 1 /15 1 /16 0
Wright, Chris 08:48 + 3 0 /9 0 -0 0 -1 0 -0 1 /11 1 /4 0 /15 3 /16 0 /4 0 /7 0 /9 1
Rivers, Jeremiah 16:31 + 3 0 /23 0 -0 0 -2 0 -0 2 /20 0 /9 1 /25 1 /22 0 /5 0 /13 3 /13 3
Freeman, Austin 12:24 + 1 2 /18 1 -1 0 -3 0 -0 4 /16 0 /6 0 /21 1 /21 0 /9 0 /9 3 /12 1
Crawford, Tyler 00:01 + 0 0 /0 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0 0 /0 0 /0 0 /0 0 /0 0 /0 0 /0 0 /0 0
TOTALS 40:00 68 15-22 9 -26 11-17 48 12/24 7 /62 15/62 4 /23 7 /28 28/37 14
0.682 0.346 0.647 0.500 0.113 0.242 0.174 0.250 0.757

Efficiency: Georgetown 1.097, William & Mary 0.855
eFG%: Georgetown 0.594, William & Mary 0.438
Substitutions: Georgetown 28, William & Mary 33

2-pt Shot Selection:
Dunks: Georgetown 0-0, William & Mary 0-0
Layups/Tips: Georgetown 7-9, William & Mary 5-10
Jumpers: Georgetown 8-13, William & Mary 6-13

Monday, November 5, 2007

News: 2007-8 Basketball Schedule for Geeks

The lads over at HoyaHoops.com have posted an electronic version of Georgetown's 2007-8 schedule, including game location as street address and a list of available media sources.

A Google calendar version is here; a more general .ics version (for importing into other calendar programs) is here.

Friday, November 2, 2007

News: Spanning the Interweb

Just a few links to stories of interest:

    • one of [the] problems with green’s shot (though yesterday was just bad touch inside) as has been mentioned before is the sonics changed his form on his jumpshot when he arrived from gtown. i imagine it’ll take several months to see improvment on it - schrempfbucks
    • Green is a very good basketball player. One of those guys who covers for others mistakes, tips a lot of passes, tips rebounds to teamates, sets a good screen, understands how to position himself on defense, etc. Heady player on a team of num[b]skulls…which is our biggest problem right now. - chuckles2000
    • Could talk about Durant being a STAR last night but we all saw it. I love how he was the one who had to step up and score 5 points in a row to stop the streaking Suns. But I want to mention something I've noticed about "the other rookie". . . Jeff Green can guard anyone. He [h]as the body of a 5 year vet and the defensive mind of someone who is only in the league because of [their] defense. There were occasions vs. Denver where he was guarding AI and he didn't get by him and the same happened tonight with Steve Nash. That's really rare and impressive. Not to mention he can guard his position very well. Green's offense will come after his defense, but he is the type of player that helps brings championships. DID YOU SEE HIM RIGHT 2 LEFT GRANT HILL AT THE TOP OF THE KEY AND HIT A 18 FOOTER? His minutes should only go up. - brandon
  • BigEastHoops.com has wrapped up their team previews with Georgetown and Louisville this week. The author (Coach O) rates G'town #2, and seems to be a big fan of L'ville's team, both quite defensible, although the cursory nature of the reviews and archaic stats (ppg; rpg ?!) certainly leaves room for debate.
Updated on Nov. 4th, 9:00pm