After a blowout loss to Syracuse at the Carrier Dome, Georgetown still controls its own destiny, owning the tie-breaker against the Pittsburgh Panthers. So, when the Hoyas face a pedestrian UConn team today at Verizon Center, a victory would clinch the Big East regular season title and the No. 1 seed in the Big East Tournament.
UConn enters the game after a gut-wrenching loss to Villanova on Wednesday night and no hope at making the NCAA Tournament as an at large bid. Given the season the Huskies have had, they certainly could roll over today, but given the history between these schools, that could be wishful thinking.
To claim the Big East title, the Hoyas will have to beat UConn's trademark full-court pressure and half-court trapping defense. In losses to Villanova and Syracuse, tough defensive pressure has led to a staggering number of turnovers, something the limited-possession offense of the Hoyas can ill-afford. UConn will look to push the tempo today and hope that their much-hyped, but still very raw, freshman center Hasheem Thabeet can hold down Roy Hibbert in the paint. If Georgetown gets in trouble, look for the Hoyas to put the Huskies on the line, where their free throw percentage resembles something akin to the odds of winning the Virginia Lottery.
This is the final home game in the careers of Sead Dizdarevic and Kenny Izzo, two long-time, depth players for the Hoyas, but also two fan favorites due to their limited playing time. It may also be the final home game for Georgetown junior Jeff Green, who could very well test the waters of the NBA Draft after his stock has surged over the course of GU's 11-game winning streak.
Saturday, March 3, 2007
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Analysis: BET #1 Seed, Revisited
With one game to go for all 16 Big East teams, some of the BET seeding is clear, some is not. Best resources are MountaineerStats.com's Do-It-Yourself Prognosticator and this thread on Hoyatalk.
One point I want to address explicitly is that Georgetown controls its seeding fate Saturday against UConn.
If Georgetown and Pitt (@ Marquette) both win their last game, G'town is the #1 seed.
If Pitt and Georgetown both lose this weekend, G'town would receive the #1 seed.
If Georgetown wins and Pitt loses, Georgetown is the #1 seed. Louisville would be #2 with a win, Pitt would stay #2 if Louisville loses.
If Pitt wins and Georgetown loses, Pitt is the #1 seed, Georgetown #2 (G'town holds a head-to-head tiebreaker with Louisville).
One point I want to address explicitly is that Georgetown controls its seeding fate Saturday against UConn.
If Georgetown and Pitt (@ Marquette) both win their last game, G'town is the #1 seed.
- A Louisville win (@ SHU) would clinch for G'town (GU: 1-0, Pitt 0-1 vs. L'ville).
- A L'ville loss and a Syracuse win (@ Villanova) would cancel the above advantage (GU 0-1, Pitt 1-0 vs. 'Cuse). Due to the uneven schedule and wins against most other teams, the eventual tie breaker, after progressing through all other teams one time, would be Notre Dame, which G'town beat and Pitt didn't play. G'town would receive the tiebreaker and #1 seed; yes, this doesn't seem fair, but it's how the tie-breaking formula is written.
- A Syracuse loss would also clinch for G'town.
If Pitt and Georgetown both lose this weekend, G'town would receive the #1 seed.
- A Louisville win would give a 3-way tie for first. G'town would win the mini-conference (GU 2-1; L'ville 1-1; Pitt 1-2), then Louisville at #2 and Pitt at #3.
- A Louisville loss would result in tie-breaking scenarios as covered above, so G'town would be seeded #1, Pitt #2.
If Georgetown wins and Pitt loses, Georgetown is the #1 seed. Louisville would be #2 with a win, Pitt would stay #2 if Louisville loses.
If Pitt wins and Georgetown loses, Pitt is the #1 seed, Georgetown #2 (G'town holds a head-to-head tiebreaker with Louisville).
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Analysis: Aftermath
It would have been hard to imagine three years ago that an opponent's fans, Syracuse fans no less, would storm the court and celebrate a win over Georgetown in their house. But times have changed, and expectations have changed around the Hilltop.
So the questions to ask are:
First, yes this loss was bad. But not the worst that the team has played this year. If you account for the level of the opponent (see previous post), this ranks as the Hoyas third worst game, behind the Old Dominion home loss and the Hartford win by only 10. Here's the performance chart for the season, updated through the 'Cuse game (click images to enlarge).
But the game was the first time since the Villanova & Pitt games in mid-January where G'town performed significantly below expectation (18 points below expected).
We can look at the offense and defense individually, as well. Here, I've adjusted my methodology from what I developed in an earlier post, so that now the offensive and defensive performance are expressed in point differential from expected (based on actual game pace) . This should give us an idea of where things went wrong.
First, the defense:
The results are a bit of a surprise, as the defense actually played right about as expected, given that it was a road game. While it seemed like the Orangemen were making everything they put up, their eFG% for the game (52.8) wasn't much different than what they typically shoot (51.4), the Georgetown held them well below average on OR% (24.3 vs. 34.2).
More interestingly, the team defense hasn't had a truly bad game since the home Cinci game on Jan. 27th (18 more points allowed than expected for G'town), when the Bearcats shot the lights out from 3 to keep the game close; more recently, Louisville scored 9 more points than expected, by not turning the ball over (1 time all game!).
The offense:
And here we can see just how ugly this game was; the offense was 19 points worse than expected. The heart of the matter was an eFG% of 35.1 (which includes those two late 3's in garbage time) almost 10% below than the next worst shooting performance (eFG% = 44.9 against Duke). That wasn't the only problem, as the team under-performed on turnovers and offensive rebounding, as well (although no where near the level of ineptitude of the shooting). At least they got to the FT line a bit more than usual.
Remarkably, this is not the lousiest offensive game for Georgetown, as the Hoyas achieved a -22 points (actual vs. expected) in the Oregon game. That was a real team effort, as all of the four factors were well below normal.
Having said all that, I'll return to the third question, "Will it happen again?" In a word, "No."
Warning - Heavy Statistical Content
Georgetown has an overall eFG% of 57.9 this season, good for 3rd in the country (through games played 2/26). And if you take the average eFG% of each game, it's even higher, 59.1 (this discrepancy has to do with the difference between treating all shots the same and treating each set of shots, i.e. each game, as a single event). The standard deviation of the game average is 8.1, so you can say the Hoyas' average eFG% = 59.1 ± 8.1 for the season (avg. ± 1σ).
Assuming a normal distribution across the 28 games played, there is a ~95% likelihood, or 19 in 20 chance, that Georgetown will perform within 2σ of their average (43 - 75% eFG). Up until the Syracuse game, the team's actual range was 44.9 (Duke) - 72.7 (James Madison). The likelihood that the Hoyas will shoot better than 35% eFG in a game is roughly 99.5%. That is to say, based upon the teams performance to date (including the Syracuse game), the shooting will be that bad 1 time in 200.
With a maximum of 10 games left in the season, the data indicates that Georgetown will not shoot that poorly again.
So the questions to ask are:
- How bad was that lose?
- How did it happen?
- Will it happen again?
First, yes this loss was bad. But not the worst that the team has played this year. If you account for the level of the opponent (see previous post), this ranks as the Hoyas third worst game, behind the Old Dominion home loss and the Hartford win by only 10. Here's the performance chart for the season, updated through the 'Cuse game (click images to enlarge).
But the game was the first time since the Villanova & Pitt games in mid-January where G'town performed significantly below expectation (18 points below expected).
We can look at the offense and defense individually, as well. Here, I've adjusted my methodology from what I developed in an earlier post, so that now the offensive and defensive performance are expressed in point differential from expected (based on actual game pace) . This should give us an idea of where things went wrong.
First, the defense:
The results are a bit of a surprise, as the defense actually played right about as expected, given that it was a road game. While it seemed like the Orangemen were making everything they put up, their eFG% for the game (52.8) wasn't much different than what they typically shoot (51.4), the Georgetown held them well below average on OR% (24.3 vs. 34.2).
More interestingly, the team defense hasn't had a truly bad game since the home Cinci game on Jan. 27th (18 more points allowed than expected for G'town), when the Bearcats shot the lights out from 3 to keep the game close; more recently, Louisville scored 9 more points than expected, by not turning the ball over (1 time all game!).
The offense:
And here we can see just how ugly this game was; the offense was 19 points worse than expected. The heart of the matter was an eFG% of 35.1 (which includes those two late 3's in garbage time) almost 10% below than the next worst shooting performance (eFG% = 44.9 against Duke). That wasn't the only problem, as the team under-performed on turnovers and offensive rebounding, as well (although no where near the level of ineptitude of the shooting). At least they got to the FT line a bit more than usual.
Remarkably, this is not the lousiest offensive game for Georgetown, as the Hoyas achieved a -22 points (actual vs. expected) in the Oregon game. That was a real team effort, as all of the four factors were well below normal.
Having said all that, I'll return to the third question, "Will it happen again?" In a word, "No."
Warning - Heavy Statistical Content
Georgetown has an overall eFG% of 57.9 this season, good for 3rd in the country (through games played 2/26). And if you take the average eFG% of each game, it's even higher, 59.1 (this discrepancy has to do with the difference between treating all shots the same and treating each set of shots, i.e. each game, as a single event). The standard deviation of the game average is 8.1, so you can say the Hoyas' average eFG% = 59.1 ± 8.1 for the season (avg. ± 1σ).
Assuming a normal distribution across the 28 games played, there is a ~95% likelihood, or 19 in 20 chance, that Georgetown will perform within 2σ of their average (43 - 75% eFG). Up until the Syracuse game, the team's actual range was 44.9 (Duke) - 72.7 (James Madison). The likelihood that the Hoyas will shoot better than 35% eFG in a game is roughly 99.5%. That is to say, based upon the teams performance to date (including the Syracuse game), the shooting will be that bad 1 time in 200.
With a maximum of 10 games left in the season, the data indicates that Georgetown will not shoot that poorly again.
Monday, February 26, 2007
Final score: Syracuse 72, Georgetown 58
Georgetown vs Syracuse
2/26/07 7:02 p.m. at Carrier Dome, Syracuse, NY
Final score: Syracuse 72, Georgetown 58
Georgetown Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF
Summers, DaJuan 25:31 - 8 10/37 0 -5 1 -5 7 -8 10/37 0 /7 2 /45 1 /45 0 /16 2 /30 2 /19 3
Green, Jeff 39:00 - 20 9 /52 2 -8 1 -5 2 -3 13/55 2 /12 1 /72 5 /72 2 /31 3 /42 7 /33 3
Hibbert, Roy 19:19 - 7 6 /24 3 -4 0 -0 0 -0 4 /27 0 /5 0 /35 2 /34 3 /14 0 /19 2 /20 3
Wallace, Jonathan 27:21 - 18 7 /35 0 -3 1 -4 4 -4 7 /39 0 /9 2 /46 4 /50 0 /21 1 /30 2 /23 2
Sapp, Jessie 35:54 - 7 8 /55 2 -4 0 -8 4 -6 12/52 6 /14 2 /64 4 /65 1 /31 3 /39 3 /32 3
Macklin, Vernon 09:18 - 6 2 /13 1 -1 0 -0 0 -0 1 /10 0 /4 0 /17 0 /17 0 /13 1 /5 0 /9 0
Rivers, Jeremiah 16:45 - 3 3 /26 0 -0 1 -1 0 -0 1 /23 2 /7 2 /36 1 /33 0 /14 0 /17 3 /15 2
Crawford, Tyler 02:54 + 3 0 /8 0 -2 0 -0 0 -0 2 /7 0 /2 0 /5 1 /7 0 /2 1 /7 0 /2 2
SPANN, Octavius 01:00 + 6 3 /6 0 -0 1 -1 0 -0 1 /2 0 /1 0 /1 0 /2 0 /2 1 /1 0 /2 0
Ewing, Patrick 22:58 - 10 10/34 3 -5 1 -1 1 -5 6 /33 2 /7 1 /44 3 /45 1 /21 2 /25 5 /20 3
TOTALS 40:00 58 11-32 6 -25 18-26 57 12/17 10/73 21/74 7 /33 17/43 26/35 21
. 0.344 0.240 0.692 0.706 0.137 0.284 0.212 0.395 0.743
Syracuse Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF
ROBERTS, Terrence 28:55 + 22 6 /57 2 -4 0 -0 2 -4 4 /38 0 /17 2 /54 1 /55 1 /25 1 /23 5 /32 2
NICHOLS, Demetris 38:00 + 22 22/71 2 -8 4 -8 6 -6 16/51 1 /18 4 /69 2 /69 1 /31 1 /31 2 /42 2
WATKINS, Darryl 32:06 + 7 9 /54 4 -4 0 -0 1 -5 4 /42 3 /14 0 /58 0 /58 2 /25 1 /28 7 /33 5
RAUTINS, Andy 31:10 + 22 13/65 0 -0 4 -8 1 -2 8 /40 1 /17 2 /59 2 /58 0 /26 1 /24 2 /36 4
DEVENDORF, Eric 39:39 + 14 11/72 4 -8 1 -4 0 -0 12/54 11/19 1 /73 6 /72 0 /32 0 /35 2 /43 5
HARRIS, Paul 20:44 + 0 11/34 3 -7 0 -0 5 -8 7 /30 0 /9 1 /39 3 /37 0 /15 1 /21 5 /19 4
BURACH, Todd 01:00 - 6 0 /0 0 -2 0 -0 0 -0 2 /2 0 /0 0 /2 0 /1 0 /0 1 /2 0 /1 0
GORMAN, Matt 04:35 - 6 0 /4 0 -0 0 -1 0 -0 1 /7 0 /1 0 /10 0 /8 0 /3 0 /6 1 /6 0
WRIGHT, Josh 03:03 - 2 0 /3 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0 0 /4 0 /1 0 /5 2 /6 0 /3 0 /3 0 /2 1
DiLIEGRO, Ross 00:48 - 3 0 /0 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0 0 /2 0 /0 0 /1 0 /1 0 /0 0 /2 0 /1 0
TOTALS 40:00 72 15-33 9 -21 15-25 54 16/24 10/74 16/73 4 /32 9 /35 26/43 23
. 0.455 0.429 0.600 0.667 0.135 0.219 0.125 0.257 0.605
Efficiency: Syracuse 0.986, Georgetown 0.784
eFG%: Syracuse 0.528, Georgetown 0.351
Substitutions: Syracuse 20, Georgetown 30
2-pt Shot Selection:
Dunks: Syracuse 1-1, Georgetown 3-3
Layups/Tips: Syracuse 11-18, Georgetown 5-10
Jumpers: Syracuse 3-14, Georgetown 3-19
News: Syracuse 72, G'town 58
As The Stranger once explained to The Dude, "Sometimes you eat the bear, and sometimes, well, he eats you."
Not much too add tonight besides the box score. Before Pat Ewing Jr. and Tay Spann (!) hit back-to-back 3s to end the game, the team shot a collective 15-55 (4-23 3-pt). That's an eFG% of 30.1% going into the last minute. The worst performances before today were 44.9% at Duke and 45.9% vs. Oregon.
If you feel the need to vent, head over to this thread on HoyaTalk.
Not much too add tonight besides the box score. Before Pat Ewing Jr. and Tay Spann (!) hit back-to-back 3s to end the game, the team shot a collective 15-55 (4-23 3-pt). That's an eFG% of 30.1% going into the last minute. The worst performances before today were 44.9% at Duke and 45.9% vs. Oregon.
If you feel the need to vent, head over to this thread on HoyaTalk.
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