Pre-Game Analysis: GU vs. Syracuse

With history to be made by the 2006-07 Georgetown Hoyas, it is fitting that the game that could clinch a share of the Big East regular season title and a program record 12th straight win comes against rival Syracuse in the Carrier Dome. After beating Pittsburgh to take the lead in the Big East on Saturday, a victory tonight will give Georgetown all of the necessary tie-breakers to secure the No. 1 seed in the Big East Tournament.

Despite a Syracuse team that has played weaker than many previous incarnations, the Orange will present a formidable challenge, not only given their rivalry with the Hoyas, but also the status of their postseason hopes. Even after four straight wins, Syracuse currently resides firmly on the bubble after a pre-conference schedule yielded no wins of note. A win tonight, paired with an earlier win over Marquette, would give them two quality victories on the season, as well as 10 wins in the Big East, which should be enough to get them into the tournament provided they don't lose to Villanova and again in the first round of the Big East Tournament. Coupling that desire with a quick turnaround after Saturday's game, bad traveling conditions on Sunday for Georgetown and an arena in which the Hoyas have not won since 2002 is probably why Washington Post columnist Mike Wilbon picked the Orange to upset the Hoyas on Tony Kornheiser's radio show Monday Morning.

The Hoyas do have momentum, having won 11 in a row, as well as a sterling road resume. Winners of 9 of 11 games on the road this season, Georgetown owns the most visiting victories of any major conference team this season. Those two losses came to Duke (at Cameron Indoor) and to Pittsburgh (at the Peterson Events Center) two of the toughest venues in college basketball. The Carrier Dome, with its high crowd capacity and vacuous feel, could be an equally daunting environment, especially considering that Georgetown will likely have to have a solid game from behind the arc to win. In seven of Syracuse's eight losses, they allowed eight or more three pointers to their opponents.

While Georgetown is third in the Big East in three-point field goal percentage (just behind Syracuse), the Hoyas have only scored eight or more threes three times during conference play this season (Cincinnati, DePaul and Notre Dame). The Hoyas prefer to pound the ball inside to center Roy Hibbert and floating post man Jeff Green. To do that, they will have to dissect the Orange's trademark 2-3 zone. Expect Green to cut frequently to the foul line. If he gets the ball in the high post, Green will be a extremely problematic for Syracuse. He's been very adept of late at knocking down mid-range jump shots, and his vision and passing skills will allow him to dump it down to the low post or to an open teammate behind the arc if his shot isn't there.

Jon Wallace, who arugably turned in the best game of his career against Pittsburgh, will have to provide some shooting touch from the perimeter, as the streaky Summers has been cool of late, hitting just one of his last 13 three-point attempts since a torrid four of six clip in wins over Marquette and West Virginia.

Defensively Georgetown will have to bottle up Big East scoring leader Demetris Nichols and Eric Devendorf. The Hoyas have employed a very effective 2-3 zone of late, but don't be surprised to see defensive catalyst Patrick Ewing Jr. take on Nichols in man-to-man sets. Syracuse freshman Paul Harris could be an X factor for the Orange. Head Coach Jim Boeheim has largely kept the highly-regarded Harris in check this season, but after scoring 16 points against UConn Feb. 17, he was rewarded with 32 minutes of playing time against Providence last Saturday. He only scored six points in that time against the Friars, but he has had a knack for getting to the foul line this season. Boeheim may insert him if he is looking to get Green or Hibbert to the bench with foul trouble.

Analysis: BE Regular Season vs. BE Tourney

Something that's been brought up a few times on HoyaTalk is the relative merits of winning the Big East regular season title and/or league tourney title.

I thought I'd look at the performance of the top 2 regular season (RS) teams and BET finals (F) teams in the NCAAs, to see if any pattern emerges. Overall, regular season 1st or 2nd place teams average 2.2 wins the the NCAA, while BET finalists average 1.9 wins.

I broke the teams into 8 groups. For example, a team that finished 1st in the regular season, and lost the BET finals game will be labeled: (#1, #2), followed by count (number of teams) and average NCAA wins. Okay, here we go:

Team	Count	Average
(#1,#1)	11	2.6
(#1,#2)	8	2.0
(#1,no)	8	2.1
(#2,#1)	7	3.0
(#2,#2)	6	1.7
(#2,no)	14	1.6
(no,#1)	9	0.9
(no,#2)	14	1.8

For top-2 teams from the regular season, there does seem to be a correlation between winning the BET title and playing well in the NCAAs. Generally, RS 1st place teams do slightly better than 2nd (2.3 vs. 2.0), but the 2nd place team that wins the BET is the strongest of all groups (noting small sample sizes).

On the other hand, finishing worse than 2nd in the regular season but winning the BET does not appear to be a precursor to an NCAA run (think 'Cuse last season). But strangely, a team that finished 3rd or worse regular season, then lost the BET finals is just short of even odds to make the Sweet 16, on average.

Extra: Pitt Highlights

New link to game highlights (higher quality than below).

Final score: Georgetown 61, Pittsburgh 53

  PITT vs Georgetown 
 02/24/07 2 p.m. at Verizon Center, Washington, D.C. 
 Final score: Georgetown 61, PITT 53
   
 PITT                    Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF 
 FIELDS, Levance        28:54  + 5  5 /45 1 -1  1 -7  0 -0  8 /44 7 /14 2 /44 2 /45 0 /16 0 /33 4 /17  4  
 KENDALL, Levon         21:21  + 3  2 /32 1 -3  0 -0  0 -0  3 /34 0 /10 0 /31 1 /32 1 /10 2 /25 2 /11  4  
 GRAVES, Antonio        24:35  - 1  3 /36 0 -2  1 -3  0 -0  5 /36 1 /12 0 /36 2 /34 0 /15 1 /27 2 /15  4  
 YOUNG, Sam             28:09  - 3  11/40 2 -8  2 -3  1 -4  11/38 1 /11 2 /44 3 /41 0 /19 5 /27 3 /15  3  
 COOK, Mike             31:11  - 4  9 /41 3 -7  0 -1  3 -4  8 /43 1 /12 1 /46 3 /47 0 /20 3 /32 0 /18  1  
 BENJAMIN, Keith        09:19  - 6  0 /8  0 -3  0 -0  0 -0  3 /13 1 /3  1 /12 0 /10 0 /4  0 /10 1 /5   0  
 RAMON, Ronald          26:21  - 19 11/29 0 -0  3 -9  2 -2  9 /41 1 /7  0 /40 1 /39 0 /14 1 /36 0 /14  2  
 BIGGS, Tyrell          08:39  - 6  2 /6  1 -3  0 -1  0 -0  4 /15 0 /1  0 /12 1 /13 0 /3  3 /15 0 /6   1  
 GRAY, Aaron            21:31  - 9  10/28 4 -7  0 -0  2 -6  7 /26 1 /6  0 /30 1 /29 0 /14 4 /20 2 /14  3  
 TOTALS                 40:00       53    12-34 7 -24 8 -16    58 13/19 6 /59 14/58 1 /23 22/45 15/23  22 
                                          0.353 0.292 0.500       0.684 0.102 0.241 0.043 0.489 0.652     
  
 Georgetown              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF 
 Wallace, Jonathan      35:34  + 7  17/55 3 -3  1 -3  8 -8  6 /34 2 /12 3 /53 4 /53 0 /29 1 /21 0 /40  0  
 Summers, DaJuan        34:22  + 10 9 /56 1 -1  1 -5  4 -6  6 /34 0 /14 2 /49 3 /51 1 /33 1 /21 4 /40  2  
 Sapp, Jessie           33:04  + 9  7 /51 2 -3  0 -2  3 -4  5 /30 2 /13 0 /49 2 /50 0 /31 0 /18 7 /40  3  
 Green, Jeff            29:22  + 5  14/43 4 -6  1 -5  3 -5  11/27 3 /9  2 /43 2 /44 0 /25 2 /15 2 /30  5  
 Hibbert, Roy           28:41  - 3  12/38 4 -7  0 -0  4 -5  7 /24 0 /7  1 /39 0 /42 4 /23 2 /16 3 /32  4  
 Macklin, Vernon        04:46  - 2  2 /6  1 -2  0 -0  0 -0  2 /5  0 /1  0 /8  0 /5  0 /3  1 /3  1 /5   0  
 Rivers, Jeremiah       11:22  + 0  0 /16 0 -0  0 -0  0 -0  0 /12 0 /5  0 /14 0 /15 0 /8  0 /7  3 /10  1  
 Ewing, Patrick         22:49  + 14 0 /40 0 -1  0 -0  0 -1  1 /24 1 /11 0 /35 4 /35 2 /18 1 /14 1 /28  3  
 TOTALS                 40:00       61    15-23 3 -15 22-29    38 8 /18 8 /58 15/59 7 /34 8 /23 23/45  18 
                                          0.652 0.200 0.759       0.444 0.138 0.254 0.206 0.348 0.511     
   
 Efficiency: Georgetown 1.034, PITT 0.914
 eFG%: Georgetown 0.513, PITT 0.388
 Substitutions: Georgetown 23, PITT 37
   
 2-pt Shot Selection: 
 Dunks: Georgetown 1-1, PITT 2-2
 Layups/Tips: Georgetown 7-8, PITT 7-17
 Jumpers: Georgetown 7-14, PITT 3-15

Analysis: BET Seeding Possibilites

After Saturday's BE games, Georgetown currently stands at 12-2, alone in first place in the conference. Pitt (11-3) and Louisville (10-4), with less than 5 losses, are the other teams still in play for the regular season conference title. Here are the remaining scenarios that would give Georgetown at least a share of the regular-season title, and a #1 seed:

Hoyas 2-0 (W @ Syracuse, v. UConn)

• Louisville holds the tie breaker vs. Pitt (head-to-head 1-0), and could obtain the #2 seed by winning at least one more remaining game than Pitt.
• If Pitt loses out, ending 11-5, Notre Dame could pass them by reaching 11 wins. Notre Dame would win any tiebreaker against L'ville and/or Pitt.

Hoyas 1-1 (W @ 'Cuse, L v. UConn)

Hoyas 1-1 (L @ 'Cuse, W v. UConn)

• Pitt 1-1 or worse
  
• Pitt 2-0 and 'Cuse loses at Villanova. If Pitt goes 2-0, Georgetown and Pitt would end tied. Since they split head-to-head, the next tiebreaker is best record against next best team. Georgetown has a 1-0 record against all possible next best teams, except Syracuse (currently 0-0). Pitt beat 'Cuse in their only meeting, so would win this tiebreaker against G'town.

Hoyas 0-2

• Pitt 1-1, L'ville 2-0. In case of a three-way tie for first, G'town would win the mini-conference by best combined head-to-head record (GU 2-1; L'ville 1-1; Pitt 1-2).
• Pitt 0-2. Georgetown holds a head-to-head tiebreaker against L'ville (and therefore the Cardinals cannot be seeded higher than G'town under any scenario).
  

Georgetown will fall to the #2 seed (Pitt #1), but share the regular-season title if:

Hoyas 1-1 (L @ 'Cuse, W v. UConn)

• Pitt 2-0 and 'Cuse wins at Villanova. See above.

Hoyas 0-2

• Pitt 1-1, L'ville 1-1 or worse, and 'Cuse wins at 'Nova. See above.

Georgetown will fall to the #2 seed and lose the regular-season title if:

Hoyas 0-2

• Pitt 2-0

I think that's everything - let me know what I missed.