Louisville 72, St. John's 48
The Cardinals are just playing for seeding at this point. Barring calamity, St. John's should still make the BET this year.
UConn 65, Rutgers 55
And with that loss, Rutgers slips below 200 in RPI. UConn has only beaten 1 conference opponent ('Cuse) with an RPI better than 100.
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
News: Georgetown 75, Cincinnati 65
An ugly win on the road, moving Georgetown to 11-2 in the Big East.
Here's the G'town side of the box score:
Notes:
Corrected 2-22-07
Pace = 64
Off. Efficiency = 116.3
Def. Efficiency = 100.8
Here's the G'town side of the box score:
| STARTERS | MIN | FGM-A | FTM-A | OFF | REB | AST | PF | PTS |
| D. Summers, F | 35 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| J. Green, F | 29 | 6-10 | 7-8 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 21 |
| R. Hibbert, C | 32 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| J. Wallace, G | 36 | 6-10 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| J. Sapp, G | 37 | 6-13 | 1-5 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| BENCH | MIN | FGM-A | FTM-A | OFF | REB | AST | PF | PTS |
| V. Macklin, F | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| J. Rivers, G | 7 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| T. Crawford, G-F | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| P. Ewing Jr, F | 18 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| TOTALS | FGM-A | FTM-A | OFF | REB | AST | PF | PTS | |
| 26-48 | 15-21 | 7 | 24 | 13 | 19 | 75 | ||
Notes:
- Jessie Sapp accounted for 4 of the 5 missed FTs (3 in the last minute)
- Not listed, but Jon Wallace accounted for 6 of the team's 14 turnovers
- Georgetown gave up 16 offensive rebounds on (Def OR% = 48.5%)
Corrected 2-22-07
Pace = 64
Off. Efficiency = 116.3
Def. Efficiency = 100.8
Tuesday, February 20, 2007
News: Big East Scores - 2/20
Notre Dame 78, DePaul 54
NDU takes a step towards solidifying their tourney hopes, and possibly ends DePaul's chances in the process. Even if DePaul wins out (S. Fl. and Cinci), their RPI can't move up.
Providence 64, WVU 61
Meanwhile, Provy keeps hope alive, thanks to WVU shooting 9-41(!) on 3-pts. Now if Provy wins out (Cuse, @ S. Fl., @ St. John's), they'ed be 10-6, with an RPI in the low 40's.
NDU takes a step towards solidifying their tourney hopes, and possibly ends DePaul's chances in the process. Even if DePaul wins out (S. Fl. and Cinci), their RPI can't move up.
Providence 64, WVU 61
Meanwhile, Provy keeps hope alive, thanks to WVU shooting 9-41(!) on 3-pts. Now if Provy wins out (Cuse, @ S. Fl., @ St. John's), they'ed be 10-6, with an RPI in the low 40's.
Analysis: Team Performance
In the last analysis post, I looked at whether the team had improved on offense or defense, and tried to tease out some underlying reasons.
Today, I thought I'd try to look more coarsely at that analysis. First, I can retroactively calculate the expected point spread, based on Adj. Off. Eff. and Adj. Def. Eff. from Ken Pomeroy. Now this won't perfectly reproduce his original point spreads, since his efficiencies are based on performance throughout the season, weighted toward the present. But, it'll give an idea of the level of competition for each game the Hoyas played. Note that I'm weighted +4 for home and -4 for road. Also, I'm cheating, and applying the pace that the game was played at to calculate points, rather than efficiencies (as always, click any image to enlarge).
Things are definitely going well for Georgetown these days. Based on play so far this season, the Hoyas would only be underdogs for the Duke and Pitt road games.
Well, we can bring reality into our hypothetical world, simply by plotting the actual point differential for all the games played to date:
Strange as it is, ODU still has the best (worst?) point differential against the Hoyas this season.
Okay, now if I simply subtract the first chart from the second, we should get a measure of how well G'town played in each game, relative to where we'd expect based on today's offensive and defensive efficiencies.
Well, by this metric that ODU game is still the worst that Georgetown has played this year, but the first game of the year, against Hartford, now looks like the 2nd worst. Some of these results are intuitive (the Oregon game and the 1st Villanova game were obvious stinkers), but some of this is surprising (e.g. Ball St. and Navy).
The best game was the St. John's game (30-4, 41-9 point run), along with Vanderbilt and Michigan. In fact, since Big East play began the Hoyas are an average of 3.9 points better than the spread. And remember that my calcs are based on statistics compiled through Monday, Feb 19th. This may be pointing to a lag in Pomeroy's adjusted statistics, in that they are weighted a bit too heavily by games early in the year.
Here's a table of games to date, ranked from best to worst according to my fancy method:
Before I wrap this up, I'll point out a couple of things from the table:
Without Vandy Game
Today, I thought I'd try to look more coarsely at that analysis. First, I can retroactively calculate the expected point spread, based on Adj. Off. Eff. and Adj. Def. Eff. from Ken Pomeroy. Now this won't perfectly reproduce his original point spreads, since his efficiencies are based on performance throughout the season, weighted toward the present. But, it'll give an idea of the level of competition for each game the Hoyas played. Note that I'm weighted +4 for home and -4 for road. Also, I'm cheating, and applying the pace that the game was played at to calculate points, rather than efficiencies (as always, click any image to enlarge).
Things are definitely going well for Georgetown these days. Based on play so far this season, the Hoyas would only be underdogs for the Duke and Pitt road games.
Well, we can bring reality into our hypothetical world, simply by plotting the actual point differential for all the games played to date:
Strange as it is, ODU still has the best (worst?) point differential against the Hoyas this season.
Okay, now if I simply subtract the first chart from the second, we should get a measure of how well G'town played in each game, relative to where we'd expect based on today's offensive and defensive efficiencies.
Well, by this metric that ODU game is still the worst that Georgetown has played this year, but the first game of the year, against Hartford, now looks like the 2nd worst. Some of these results are intuitive (the Oregon game and the 1st Villanova game were obvious stinkers), but some of this is surprising (e.g. Ball St. and Navy).
The best game was the St. John's game (30-4, 41-9 point run), along with Vanderbilt and Michigan. In fact, since Big East play began the Hoyas are an average of 3.9 points better than the spread. And remember that my calcs are based on statistics compiled through Monday, Feb 19th. This may be pointing to a lag in Pomeroy's adjusted statistics, in that they are weighted a bit too heavily by games early in the year.
Here's a table of games to date, ranked from best to worst according to my fancy method:
Before I wrap this up, I'll point out a couple of things from the table:
- Only 1 game in February (@ Nova) isn't in the Top 10.
- The 6 worst games were at home, the 4 best on the road. This may be a good omen for tournament season.
- The 5 worst games all had paces of 60+. Is this a trend? Well that depends.
Without Vandy Game
Monday, February 19, 2007
News: Big East Scores - 2/19
Pitt 71, SHU 68
Looking at the play-by-play, the game wasn't as close as it appears. Pitt played without Aaron Gray (resting a sore ankle), and did enough to win a road Big East game. Don't think there's much to take from this one with regards to the upcoming game on Saturday.
Marq 80, Nova 67
Villanova looked like a world-beater against Georgetown, but it turns out Marquette was able to right the ship in time. To me, the key stat was rebounding - Villanova should have controlled the boards, but the Golden Eagles / Warriors won 30-26.
BIG win for Marquette, with their last 2 at Notre Dame and hosting Pitt; one more win against either of those teams or in the BET will absolutely lock a NCAA tourney bid - they likely nailed the lock tonight.
Best-case scenario for Villanova right now is to win out and get to 9-7 in the Big East, get a favorable seeding the BET (read: land on G'town side of the draw) and win a couple there. Hard to see them missing the NCAA's even at 8-8 (RPI=18 after Marquette game).
Looking at the play-by-play, the game wasn't as close as it appears. Pitt played without Aaron Gray (resting a sore ankle), and did enough to win a road Big East game. Don't think there's much to take from this one with regards to the upcoming game on Saturday.
Marq 80, Nova 67
Villanova looked like a world-beater against Georgetown, but it turns out Marquette was able to right the ship in time. To me, the key stat was rebounding - Villanova should have controlled the boards, but the Golden Eagles / Warriors won 30-26.
BIG win for Marquette, with their last 2 at Notre Dame and hosting Pitt; one more win against either of those teams or in the BET will absolutely lock a NCAA tourney bid - they likely nailed the lock tonight.
Best-case scenario for Villanova right now is to win out and get to 9-7 in the Big East, get a favorable seeding the BET (read: land on G'town side of the draw) and win a couple there. Hard to see them missing the NCAA's even at 8-8 (RPI=18 after Marquette game).
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